*approves of sprinked on little touch*
I play this match-up a ton with Sassy (Best ZSS in MD/VA) and, as far as I can tell, BBR has it right...slight advantage ZSS.
How do we win?: Mario wins this match-up when he consistently gets inside, abuses ZSS's lack of a good grab and OOS options, and knows where ZSS is vulnerable offstage. It's also a balancing act between playing aggressive or playing defensive, based on the stage, who has the lead, and each character's position on the stage.
What do we watch out for?: Problems arise in this match-up when Mario cannot get inside. ZSS is a character renowned for an amazing keep-away/zoning game, and heavy, reliable punishment options. She's also one of the few characters that outspeeds Mario in almost every area. This makes her already superior airgame EVEN MORE dangerous. ZSS has numerous aerial traps and baiting tools using ALL of her B moves, aerials, and enormous double jump height.
A general break-down of what to look for:
- NEVER get above ZSS if you can help it. She can literally force you to airdodge or double jump and punish you for it. Also, don't get wreckless with fireballs while recovering...most of her aerials beat them.
- Dsmash. Letting her land this is like letting D3 grab you. A Dsmash means 30+ damage easily...or a kill if you're high enough. However, she can't catch you with this unless you make a mistake, due to the nature of this move. This means airdodging to the ground too close to her, trying to punish one of her low lag moves, or just overall being predictable.
- Dash attack lock. Works near mid percentages and leads into a fair offstage. Just avoid this. If caught, don't exhaust your jump until you need it.
- Mario is one of the few people that can gimp ZSS. You must know how though...otherwise you can easily end up endangering yourself instead. Use fireballs, cape, FIHL, and aerials to kill her jumps, then grab the ledge. Be careful of her upB when on the ledge...it'll take you with her.
- And last, but not least, DO NOT FORCE THE KILL! ZSS has some of the best zoning and punishers in the game. Wrecklessly trying to force kill moves will only end horribly for you. Go for safe punishes or things you know will work...if you're having trouble, zone with fireballs and spaced tilts/bairs till utilt, bthrow, and aerials will kill her. Remember, she's extremely light.
Ban/CP?: You want to go somewhere that ZSS's zoning and keep-away aren't as effective, which will force her to fight in your comfort zone. I'd suggest CPing FD or maybe Halberd.
Ban stages like SV or PS1.
Tips n Tricks?: When caught above ZSS, abuse wavebounced fireballs, dair, and nair to get back to the ground safely. Avoid capestalling unless using it to mix up your descent. Try to save your double jump and avoid airdodging if you can. Remember, her Uair beats our dair and nair from below. Your goal is to avoid conflict until you reach the ground.
Her Dtilt puts you in perfect position for Dsmash. Capestall or double jump after getting hit by this attack. Do not airdodge or nair unless this particular ZSS is baiting the capestall or something. If you MUST airdodge, airdodge away. She can dash grab in response, but that's only on a read.
Dthrow is amazing against ZSS. She can only airdodge, double jump, or nair at low percentages. Uair beats all but airdodge, and shielding/following beats all but double jump. This is great since Fthrow is hard to follow-up after vs ZSS.
Edit: SHDair will adequately cover options as well as a follow-up to Dthrow.
Learn her downB kick's hitbox. Usmash can beat it from the right angle. She's also vulnerable if she lands with it.
If you don't feel comfortable with using her suit pieces, throw them off. Just know that Mario can be quite formidable with them vs ZSS. A caped suit piece does insane damage.
Videos?: Pending XD
Boss fought Sassy awhile back in tourney, but that's mad old now.
Vato has a match or two vs Warpstatus up on his channel too. He plays the match-up well.
MU Classification?: Mario vs ZSS is -1 for Mario.