Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Shinuto]

Just watch Sakurai pull some more magic programming BS out of his ass again for the next Smash and we get over 100 characters AND EiH AGAIN.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Just watch Sakurai pull some more magic programming BS out of his ass again for the next Smash and we get over 100 characters AND EiH AGAIN.

"Magic programming BS" doesn't make models and animations for 100 newcomers sprout out of thin air.

 

[Louie G.]

For the sake of conversation, here's how I may roughly organize where I see priorities falling next time for first parties. Notably I didn't include every character here, not because I think anyone I excluded would be cut but moreso because I don't know how to categorize like... specifically Rosalina or Bowser Jr? I think at least one of those guys is very likely to return but they're in kind of a limbo area. Don't read into anyone's absence too hard, in other words.

- Original 8
- "Active" IP with notable current / last gen releases
- Character-driven Legacy IP

All of the character-driven staple series. I emphasize this point - character driven - because the only ones I believe are in significant danger of being cut altogether are the more abstract fighter concepts and retro pulls. Feel free to debate with me on what this entails but I see a pretty stark difference in representing a series like Punch-Out, with several games spanning a 15-20 year interval, vs Ice Climber or Gyromite.

- Major Supporting
/ - Fairweather Cast

Self explanatory. I didn't feel like singling out the Pokemon very much so it's just a matter of picking and choosing who gets dibs. Fire Emblem... same thing I guess, but I think these three stand a cut above the others.

- "Smash Core"

The most abstract category, and one that is notably not accounting for every candidate, because it's hard to say exactly what this means. But to me it's characters whose merits fall outside these discernable categories and exist within a more vague assessment of Smash's own identity, gameplay or community. These may not be the most popular or recurring characters in their own series, or their respective series may not be an active part of the Nintendo brand, but they offer something or another that may be seen as valuable.

Feel free to throw ROB in here, Wii Fit Trainer, Toon Link, whoever. This is a sample selection, not the be all end all.

 

[Ivander]

Just watch Sakurai pull some more magic programming BS out of his ass again for the next Smash and we get over 100 characters AND EiH AGAIN.

I mean, if the good AI(Basically, not generative AI) of making work simpler and easier for developers gets better, I wouldn't be surprised if at the least, we don't need to worry about cuts for Nintendo characters. 3rd Party characters are still a different matter since licensing and whatnot.

 

[RouffWestie]

Just watch Sakurai pull some more magic programming BS out of his ass again for the next Smash and we get over 100 characters AND EiH AGAIN.

The magic programming BS in question:
->

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Neither was Ultimate. Still had barely any unique newcomers pre-DLC.

Ultimate added 13 unique characters and 5 clones from the previous game. Sounds pretty decent to me.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Ultimate added 13 unique characters and 5 clones from the previous game. Sounds pretty decent to me.

Unique newcomers. Did you read that part? Newcomers. As in characters you couldn't play as in previous Smash games.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

The next Smash Bros. isn't going to be an indie production.

It sure will have the netcode of one though

 

[SharkLord]

60 is the lowest the roster can go before people turn on the game for being too small relative to Ultimate. Let's try making a roster with 50 characters to demonstrate why that is:

• Let's assume there are 35 veterans and 15 newcomers.
• Obviously, you have to have the original 8, so that's almost a quarter of your veterans right there (8/35).
• Any ongoing Nintendo franchise will have at least one rep, so let's add , , , , , and (14/35).
• , , and , while the stars of inactive franchises, come from very fondly remembered games and are popular Smash staples, so they'll almost certainly be in the game (17/35).
• There're going to be some third parties in this game for sure. Everyone seems to agree , , , , and are safe regardless of what happens (22/35).
• , , and make money (25/35).
• , , , , , , and are pretty universally agreed to be guaranteed additions (32/35).
• It's very unlikely that none of the retro characters will return or that Pokemon will have one veteran, so let's add and (34/35).

Regardless of who the final veteran is and whoever the 15 newcomers are, I don't think this roster is salvageable. Even if you got rid of Game & Watch, Ganondorf, Ness, or other crazy **** like that, there's not enough room to tilt the arrow. Most franchises' representation has been gutted back to somewhere between Melee and Brawl (probably closer to 64 for Pokemon). About 80% of the developments that Smash's roster has seen in the past decade are gone.

These aren't "people are being unreasonable and expecting Everyone is Here Again + Knuckles"-tier problems, these are "Wait, they cut ****ing Meta Knight!?"-tier problems. Echo fighters can ameliorate that to an extent, but nothing will win Smash's good will back beyond, bluntly, prioritizing substance over novelty. Cool new additions will collapse without a solid foundation, even if that foundation comes at the cost of those new additions.

I hate to go "how can I make this about my roster again," but speaking from first-hand experience in trying to make a roster, 50 characters is still a really tight crunch. You're juggling veterans, popular requests that haven't shown up in newer games that often, and newcomers who debuted/got big in the Switch era - And that's before you even get into third-parties. I tried to limit each series' fighter count to only four tops, I still lost some fighters I'd much rather keep. Even if you're more conservative with newcomers and prioritize towards preserving veterans, it's still gonna be tough to get a satisfying lineup if the roster's still around base-Smash 4 levels

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Unique newcomers. Did you read that part? Newcomers. As in characters you couldn't play as in previous Smash games.

What difference does that make? You know as well as me that the cause for the smaller number of newcomers were not the Smash 4 veterans.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

I care more about the quantity and quality of the newcomers than the overall roster size. Because I'd rather have fun with who we gained than mourn who we lost.

 

[Guynamednelson]

What difference does that make? You know as well as me that the cause for the smaller number of newcomers were not the Smash 4 veterans.

You're literally in a topic where half the discussion is "I hope they add Character X as a newcomer" or "I think Character Y has a very good shot at being a newcomer", I think you know damn well what the difference is.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

You're literally in a topic where half the discussion is "I hope they add Character X as a newcomer" or "I think Character Y has a very good shot at being a newcomer", I think you know damn well what the difference is.

No I don't. As far as I know, they made the choice to bring all the old characters back because it's what the fans asked for.

And that has no effect on development time in any case. For Ultimate they ported/enhanced 50-something characters from the previous game and created 13 characters mostly from scratch. That's... not really something you can dispute.

 

[Noipoi]

When the next game has exactly 99 fighters (including echoes and dlc)

 

[MBRedboy31]

It sure will have the netcode of one though

We can all hope it’ll have the netcode of a modern indie production, that’d be a huge improvement

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

No I don't. As far as I know, they made the choice to bring all the old characters back because it's what the fans asked for.

And that has no effect on development time in any case. For Ultimate they ported/enhanced 50-something characters from the previous game and created 13 characters mostly from scratch. That's... not really something you can dispute.

Uh, yes it does.

Porting stuff over still takes a lot of work to make sure nothing breaks. It eases the job, but it doesn't make it near free to do. Also, not all veterans could possibly be port overs. Pichu, for instance, had to be entirely redone from scratch, despite being a clone. Same with Young Link. They didn't have pre-existing data they could use. Toon Link works decently as a base, but in the case of Young Link's return, he's effectively taking the work of a Melee clone, not an Echo, which is quite a bit more. Pichu didn't have as many issues with different animations, but still takes longer. And then you got ones like Wolf who weren't in 4, and have a lot more work to do. Never mind Snake.

Everyone is here took a lot of work to do. Programming it in is still a huge task, especially with that many characters and the required balance. Even the Echoes took a lot of work due to their unique animations, taunts, etc. No matter how similar they are, they aren't a "quick and easily done job". No character really is. In fact, we also see unique shortcuts like how Ken, despite being the most notable of Echoes, still has oddities like some of his attacks not even representing the limb he's using since that's not how Ryu works. Yes, the most semi-clone of Echoes happens to still have clear issues. Chrom is another interesting one, as his data from Roy still works the same way as Marth's in some cases. There's an animation that Roy can accidentally snap into taken from Marth... which Chrom also shares from Roy.

So even with some bugs like that, it still took them a damn long time to make the game. And it had a tiny list of full newcomers(the Echoes obviously took less work than some veterans like Wolf, who required to be made from scratch anyway, if not most Veterans). And still didn't have enough time to bring back Tournament Mode or Home Run Contest. The former is notable because it's not a character-related programming. But the latter at least has you directly using an item on Sandbag, so requires unique programming of how the interaction happens(which only takes a while because there's a truckload of characters. Also, Sandbag takes unique knockback from everyone, so naturally balancing that alone is going to take a while).

But yes, again, porting over makes the work easier, not even close to free. They'd need a lot more time if they couldn't port over assets and programming.

 

[Guynamednelson]

No I don't.

People just want to experience new things and not just play the exact same game over and over for all eternity. Even Melee fans, as much as they get clowned on for allegedly wanting that, don't.

Otherwise they wouldn't mod Melee to have new modes/stages/character balance/all new fighters altogether.

Otherwise, Project M wouldn't exist.

Otherwise, forks of PM like Project+, PMEX Remix, and everything in between wouldn't.

And they wouldn't be making indie platform fighters that have gameplay inspired by but isn't a direct copy of Melee's.

 

[Ivander]

When the next game has exactly 99 fighters (including echoes and dlc)

View attachment 396378

Smash fans when the next game has 99 fighters at launch and the 100th Fighter is DLC

The 100th DLC character was a Fire Emblem character.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

People just want to experience new things and not just play the exact same game over and over for all eternity. Even Melee fans, as much as they get clowned on for allegedly wanting that, don't.

Otherwise they wouldn't mod Melee to have new modes/stages/character balance/all new fighters altogether.

Otherwise, Project M wouldn't exist.

Otherwise, forks of PM like Project+, PMEX Remix, and everything in between wouldn't.

But every project you've listed is literally "Let's keep all the old content and add a bunch of new stuff on top of that".

 

[Guynamednelson]

But every project you've listed is literally "Let's keep all the old content and add a bunch of new stuff on top of that".

You deliberately ignored "indie platform fighters that have gameplay inspired by but isn't a direct copy of Melee's".

Also, they aren't literally keeping all the old content. A lot of Melee low-tiers and Brawl newcomers (and Ganondorf) were completely overhauled in PM for instance, and it doesn't have all the stages from either Melee or vanilla Brawl.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It sure will have the netcode of one though

Actually considering that indie devs know very well the importance of good netcode in their games I think not implementing rollback actually makes it worse than an indie team's netcode.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Actually considering that indie devs know very well the importance of good netcode in their games I think not implementing rollback actually makes it worse than an indie team's netcode.

And yet it would still sell more than every non-Smash platform fighter combined.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Smash fans when the next game has 99 fighters at launch and the 100th Fighter is DLC

The 100th DLC character was a Fire Emblem character.

Nah, it's Mario 2.

As in just an exact copy of Mario, just with a 2 on his hat.
No difference in attacks or move properties either.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Nah, it's Mario 2.

As in just an exact copy of Mario, just with a 2 on his hat.
No difference in attacks or move properties either.

Remario will be real

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Am I the only one who could see both EarthBound boys being cut? The series isn't a mainstay, and while the original 8 is sacred, I don't think the same about the original 12.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Am I the only one who could see both EarthBound boys being cut? The series isn't a mainstay, and while the original 8 is sacred, I don't think the same about the original 12.

Regardless on your feelings on the original 12 how on earth is a series that has never once missed a game not a mainstay?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Am I the only one who could see both EarthBound boys being cut? The series isn't a mainstay, and while the original 8 is sacred, I don't think the same about the original 12.

I think a good chunk of the extra 4 are actually pretty damn sacred enough to warrant sticking around.

Luigi needs no explanation.

Falcon's moveset is without question one of the most iconic things in the franchise. He's absolutely staying.

Ness has a weirdly unique and gimmicky moveset that no one really has (outside of Lucas because semi-clone), giving him a very unique feel. And while Mother isn't a series that is getting any new games, it's still a big deal in Japan as it's gotten plenty of new merch recently. It's still active, just not in the same way other series are. I could see him being cut but it wouldn't be because Mother 4 doesn't exist; it would be good ol' time constraints.

The only one I feel isn't completely safe is Puff because she clearly barely dodged the cutting room floor in Brawl, showing she's not the highest priority.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Regardless on your feelings on the original 12 how on earth is a series that has never once missed a game not a mainstay?

I mean outside of Smash. It's not an Animal Crossing, Xenoblade, Splatoon, etc.

 

[Noipoi]

Am I the only one who could see both EarthBound boys being cut? The series isn't a mainstay, and while the original 8 is sacred, I don't think the same about the original 12.

I don't see it. At most Lucas goes away again.

There's a certain subset of the roster that, while they may not be relevant to modern Nintendo or the wider gaming industry as a whole, have become iconic to Smash as a series itself and it'd feel wrong to get rid of them. IMO Ness is one of those characters, and it's the same deal for someone like Captain Falcon.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Any roster that cuts Fox, Ness or Captain Falcon should be disregarded immediately. It just isn't happening.

 

[toonito]

If Smash 6 decides to build upon Ultimate the easy slogan would be: Everyone Is Back! In this scenario I would want them to break the 100+ Fighters! record.

I personally see Smash 6 having 55-60 characters at launch and 70 total after DLC. Any smaller it becomes an harder sell without a total revamp of characters, presentation, gameplay, online, etc.

They will never pull a Street Fighter 3 lol - that is cutting virtually everyone but say Mario, Link, Pikachu, and Donkey Kong and adding all newcomers to Smash. Capcom regretted that move so much they more or less admitted the most of the Street Fighter 2 cast will always be in a Street Fighter game. I don't see Sakurai, who typically tries to keep characters as much as possible, making such a drastic move either. He probably has the roster in order of priority with additional input from his team and Nintendo.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

They will never pull a Street Fighter 3 lol - that is cutting virtually everyone but say Mario, Link, Pikachu, and Donkey Kong and adding all newcomers to Smash. Capcom regretted that move so much they more or less admitted the most of the Street Fighter 2 cast will always be in a Street Fighter game.

Only for them to once again **** it up in Street Fighter V and it's only after four entire seasons that we got the starting roster of SF2.

They seem to have learned their lesson with SF6 though. Good for them.

 

[Gorgonzales]

It sure will have the netcode of one though

Actually considering that indie devs know very well the importance of good netcode in their games I think not implementing rollback actually makes it worse than an indie team's netcode.

Yeah I was gonna say, even though the online for Rivals 2 isn't perfect, it still blows Smash out of the water because the devs are actually dedicated to making an online experience good.

10 frames of input delay for Smash Ultimate's online at a minimum is ridiculous when they want you to pay for it. Indies can definitely one-up Nintendo at their online game.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

10 frames of input delay for Smash Ultimate's online at a minimum is ridiculous when they want you to pay for it.

The funniest part is that most of these initial 10 frames isn't even from the netcode but rather the built-in input delay that applies even when offline.

Ultimate always feels like molasses; it's just slightly worse at best when played online.

What's really dog**** about the netcode is that it's not fast enough to really keep up with all the data transfers unless you're fighting against someone from your neighborhood which leads to a lot of pauses.

 

[Laniv]

Yeah I was gonna say, even though the online for Rivals 2 isn't perfect, it still blows Smash out of the water because the devs are actually dedicated to making an online experience good.

10 frames of input delay for Smash Ultimate's online at a minimum is ridiculous when they want you to pay for it. Indies can definitely one-up Nintendo at their online game.

Didn't Ultimate get removed from EVO 2020 because its online was just that bad?

 

[Guynamednelson]

Didn't Ultimate get removed from EVO 2020 because its online was just that bad?

Everything got removed from EVO 2020, it never happened.

But if it was going to, it was indeed going to be Smash-free for that reason alone.

 

[toonito]

Only for them to once again **** it up in Street Fighter V and it's only after four entire seasons that we got the starting roster of SF2.

They seem to have learned their lesson with SF6 though. Good for them.

whether base roster or DLC the starting roster from SF2 (+ Akuma) will always make its way to a SF game. its akin to the original 12 in Smash.

Even crazier about SF3 is that it originally wasnt a Street Fighter game and Ryu/Ken were late additions to New Generation. Yes Ryu and Ken, main characters from SF1...were late additions to SF3.

No fighting game developer will ever make this mistake again. Which is why I'm taking Sakurai at his word regarding roster cuts but I don't think the roster will go below 55.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Didn't Ultimate get removed from EVO 2020 because its online was just that bad?

What are you talking about? The players aren't seeing this lag

 

[Schnee117]

Didn't Ultimate get removed from EVO 2020 because its online was just that bad?

Yeah, before everything came out about the previous TO leading to the complete cancellation of the event, Smash got cut entirely whilst everything else would still have been run in some format.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Part of me wants the roster to hit 100 characters, but another part of me feels like, even if we did reach 100 or more, it still wouldn't satisfy Smash fans enough to move on from Ultimate and play the next Smash game.

I'll play whatever Smash has the largest roster.