Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Also Brawl was delayed to push Sonic in, he wasn't a high priority addition probably therefore.

Actually I'd imagine he was extremely high priority, they just didn't get the go ahead until it was too late, so they said "screw it, we'll delay the game and scramble to get him in."

 

[Kirbeh]

The last conversation got me thinking...

Throwing away any thoughts of likeliness aside..

• How much experience do you have with the Bayonetta franchise?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character outside of Smash?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character in Smash?
• How much do you think Bayonetta adds to Smash?
• What do you think of the Bayonetta franchise (not the character) content in Smash?
• Would you be sad to see her go?

I have all four games. Never finished 3 (didn't drop it or anything, other things had my attention at the time.) Still haven't started the Cereza game. The DVD of the anime is sitting on my shelf, unwatched. (The backlog continually grows...)

So, only really halfway through the franchise but I played the first two a good deal and loved my time with them.

Outside of Smash I really like Bayonetta. To the point that she was my vote for the Smash Ballot.

In Smash, I think she's pretty fun but is ironically not a character I main since I gravitate towards heavies/bruisers and grapplers in fighting games. I still play her a decent amount though.

As much as I love Bayo I don't actually think she adds much, though I suppose that depends on what you mean exactly. I feel like her "character action game" archetype could be fulfilled by others who are more popular and would have probably been better received.

I like the batch of content we got in Smash, would've liked some more music (and I was hoping for Jeanne as an echo) but decent overall.

She's one of my favorite characters so I'd be sad to see her go but she's a character I expect to be lower priority. I'm actually in the camp that thinks she won't make it into the next game tbh, so I'll be happy if I'm wrong there.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Actually I'd imagine he was extremely high priority, they just didn't get the go ahead until it was too late, so they said "screw it, we'll delay the game and scramble to get him in."

Also Jigglypuff, Toon Link and Wolf as bonuses since they had enough time after Sonic.

 

[dream1ng]

About a Kid Icarus remake, why would Sakuari be on that project ? Remakes are often done by companies that had nothing to do with the original game. DKCR HD for example? Retro Studios has nothing to do with it. I also remember this to be the case of basically all Zelda remakes.

A sequel however is a different case and not often enough talked about.

Yeah, he probably wouldn't be. I agree. However, he would probably know about it, and if there's any truth to the idea that that game Bamco is/was working on was Uprising HD, given Sakurai also works within Bamco, perhaps he would hypothetically have some position of oversight.

Otherwise, it's possible he'd be a consultant, but pretty unlikely he'd be greatly involved. People just don't know what he'd work on if not Smash.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Yeah, he probably wouldn't be. I agree. However, he would probably know about it, and if there's any truth to the idea that that game Bamco is/was working on was Uprising HD, given Sakurai also works within Bamco, perhaps he would hypothetically have some position of oversight.

Otherwise, it's possible he'd be a consultant, but pretty unlikely he'd be greatly involved. People just don't know what he'd work on if not Smash.

I mean if it was Uprising remake and he wasn't like intimately involved and just supervising, why would Sakurai have needed to make the project proposal that he said he made at lightning speed though?

If he made a plan that fast, I would assume it was something he really wanted to do or something he already had an immediate idea of what to do, but that's about all I can gather from it. If his project plan's not Smash, I'm very curious what that would mean, but if it IS for Smash, I'm also curious about it being a super fast project plan and what that would mean lol

 

[Diddy Kong]

Actually I'd imagine he was extremely high priority, they just didn't get the go ahead until it was too late, so they said "screw it, we'll delay the game and scramble to get him in."

Matter of perspective. Sonic might not have been high on their initial priorities, then he was urgent enough to be worth delaying the game.

Yeah, he probably wouldn't be. I agree. However, he would probably know about it, and if there's any truth to the idea that that game Bamco is/was working on was Uprising HD, given Sakurai also works within Bamco, perhaps he would hypothetically have some position of oversight.

Otherwise, it's possible he'd be a consultant, but pretty unlikely he'd be greatly involved. People just don't know what he'd work on if not Smash.

I myself am just about 99% convinced it is indeed Smash. He just keeps it vague and mysterious on purpose. The time frame just fits perfectly.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I wouldn't say rigged but more likely is that the developers saw her high votes early on and picked her so the character can be done by the December 2015 Direct. Also Sega licensing which is another factor since Nintendo doesn't own the IP. If she was picked after October 2015 which was when the ballot ended then it's likely that she would have been revealed much later such as in 2016 because making a unique character takes time.

Unrelated but if I had to guess, King K Rool, Banjo, Wolf/Snake were probably included in the top spots alongside Sora and Bayonetta. Maybe also Ridley.

Banjo was outright confirmed by Sakurai to be second place:

Bayonetta was reported to be #1 in Europe and top 5 in North America, which I feel is enough for me to confidently say she's top 10 at the absolute worst.

And while we don't know their placements, Ridley, K. Rool, the Belmonts (likely either just Simon or Castlevania in general), Chrom and Dark Samus are also known Ballot characters.

No word on "Everyone Is Here" being impacted by the Ballot in any fashion but it wouldn't be shocking if it did.

Actually I'd imagine he was extremely high priority, they just didn't get the go ahead until it was too late, so they said "screw it, we'll delay the game and scramble to get him in."

IIRC, the story is that Sega initially refused but changed their minds later in Brawl's development, causing the delay.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Matter of perspective. Sonic might not have been high on their initial priorities, then he was urgent enough to be worth delaying the game.

It was a matter of Sega not playing ball at first as I remember something about them initially rejecting Sonic for Brawl and only coming back at the last minute.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

It was a matter of Sega not playing ball at first as I remember something about them initially rejecting Sonic for Brawl and only coming back at the last minute.

Looked back to make sure since I said the same thing.

We're both wrong. He really WAS decided on late.

 

[dream1ng]

I myself am just about 99% convinced it is indeed Smash. He just keeps it vague and mysterious on purpose. The time frame just fits perfectly.

I'm also quite sure it's Smash. I don't think they set up Studio S for any other purpose, and with its establishment, especially around the time a Smash game would start development to launch relatively early in the lifespan of the Switch 2, any other option seems, to me, a long shot.

Smash is the kind of game Nintendo wants up front for its system. Not to mention a gradual shift to a steady content rollout that last several years means it will stay alive for most of the lifespan anyway.

And yeah there's the possibility it's being made without Sakurai, but... I highly doubt he'd opt out of working on Smash at this point. Gradually pass the reins to Studio S so eventually he can move on? Sure, but not yet.

I mean, you can tell from his Youtube videos, especially from the art & UI, that he's still working with the same people as those behind Bamco's Nintendo team page: https://www.bandainamcostudios.com/special-studio/

I think he knew his next project after Ultimate would be Smash again, and he just took his year or so off to focus on the Youtube stuff.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Looked back to make sure since I said the same thing.

We're both wrong. He really WAS decided on late.

I remember something else that came up since from Sega's end. I just am too tired to dig deep right now.

 

[Ivander]

Banjo was outright confirmed by Sakurai to be second place:
View attachment 397712

No he wasn't. He was the second character Following Sora to be picked, but he was never outright stated to be second place. I would in fact give the twitter post, but PushDustin's tweets are protected and I can't see them. But this is originally the tweet where PushDustIn specifically mentions that Banjo-Kazooie wasn't specifically second, just that he came after Sora. Meaning that there could have been fighters between Sora and Banjo-Kazooie.
https://twitter.com/PushDustIn/status/1455942349909991424

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Oh, I decided to order my favorite series represented in Smash’s roster, just the mainline entries, though I did throw I. Luigi’s Mansion and Dr. Mario as their own series, and categorized the mainline Final Fantasy series & the Final Fantasy VII series separately, DKC & DK arcade separately, and Warioware & Wario Land separately, because why not.



Ranking series like this is difficult, but I ‘m fairly satisfied with how the list turned out. The Smash series probably sits between Metroid and Final Fantasy for me (why is the Smash logo not one of the emojis for this website?).

Anyway, would be interested in seeing where these series rank for ya’ll.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

No he wasn't. He was the second character Following Sora to be picked, but he was never outright stated to be second place. I would in fact give the twitter post, but PushDustin's tweets are protected and I can't see them. But this is originally the tweet where PushDustIn specifically mentions that Banjo-Kazooie wasn't specifically second, just that he came after Sora. Meaning that there could have been fighters between Sora and Banjo-Kazooie.
https://twitter.com/PushDustIn/status/1455942349909991424

I mean considering Banjo came first and I'm pretty sure--unless I'm remembering wrong--FP2 characters were picked later (since Sora was only possible after Sakurai met a Disney exec at an award show and Joker was revealed like the day the game came out, implying all FP1 DLC was picked pre-launch), I think it's a fair assumption to say Banjo was pretty much number 2. Like MAYBE there were characters between them that were non-realizable or like a veteran that was already in, but until we get one of them and get told they were the real number 2, I'm just gonna Occam's Razor that can of worms lol

 

[Diddy Kong]

I'm also quite sure it's Smash. I don't think they set up Studio S for any other purpose, and with its establishment, especially around the time a Smash game would start development to launch relatively early in the lifespan of the Switch 2, any other option seems, to me, a long shot.

Smash is the kind of game Nintendo wants up front for its system. Not to mention a gradual shift to a steady content rollout that last several years means it will stay alive for most of the lifespan anyway.

And yeah there's the possibility it's being made without Sakurai, but... I highly doubt he'd opt out of working on Smash at this point. Gradually pass the reins to Studio S so eventually he can move on? Sure, but not yet.

I mean, you can tell from his Youtube videos, especially from the art & UI, that he's still working with the same people as those behind Bamco's Nintendo team page: https://www.bandainamcostudios.com/special-studio/

I think he knew his next project after Ultimate would be Smash again, and he just took his year or so off to focus on the Youtube stuff.

See , I didn't know all this. Makes all the more sense now. Studio S? Might as well call that Studio Smash. And it has the same people from Namco Bandai working with him?

99,999999% sure its Smash now.

In which case, seeing that the Switch 2 takes forever to be revealed officially, it might just have to do with them making sure they got a strong lineup to showcase with footage first. Smash might just be a part of it.

 

[dream1ng]

See , I didn't know all this. Makes all the more sense now. Studio S? Might as well call that Studio Smash. And it has the same people from Namco Bandai working with him?

99,999999% sure its Smash now.

In which case, seeing that the Switch 2 takes forever to be revealed officially, it might just have to do with them making sure they got a strong lineup to showcase with footage first. Smash might just be a part of it.

For brevity I also left out how the return of the Spirit Events doesn't really make much sense unless there's a team actively working on something. Reassemble a disassembled team, crack back into Ultimate's code only for a few spirit battles? What seems likelier is the Smash team, Studio S, working on the new game, simply allocated a few resources to Ultimate, the game many of them had likely worked on previously, and had access to.

Additionally, the presence of Sega/Atlus and Konami among those who received spirits in the anniversary events could also indicate it coincided with when those companies would've been contacted to acquire/re-acquire content for the new game. As going back before those events, mixed with when Studio S was formally revealed, could roughly coincide with the timeframe of reaching out to the license holders for base.

To me, it all lines up fairly neatly given by when Nintendo usually wants a new Smash ready.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Then kiss the odds of anything that released after July 2021 other than Scarlet/Violet getting a fighter goodbye due to how the rosters get finalized by the project proposal with a placeholder to be filled for Pokémon.

You are focused more on getting Smash "earlier" that you fail to acknowledge that the project proposal being that early kills a lot of momentum for particular options. :/


It's Rex and Spring Man all over again.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

The project being written very quickly and newer characters getting hard-capped to 2021 for the most part, if that's what happened, is pretty exciting to me.
Game is more likely to be some kind of continuation of Ultimate and the newcomers are more likely to keep being weird 3rd party dudes and/or classic but underused Nintendo characters like K. Rool, long-standing fan requests like Ridley or even characters like Chrom who got skipped when they were at their most relevant but it's not like people have stopped wanting to play as them.

 

[dream1ng]

Then kiss the odds of anything that released after July 2021 other than Scarlet/Violet getting a fighter goodbye due to how the rosters get finalized by the project proposal with a placeholder to be filled for Pokémon.

You are focused more on getting Smash "earlier" that you fail to acknowledge that the project proposal being that early kills a lot of momentum for particular options. :/


It's Rex and Spring Man all over again.

Me? I mean Studio S was formally announced in 2023, wasn't it? I would peg the project plan for base having been made that year. I just think Sakurai already knew he'd be returning to Smash after a break when Ultimate ended.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Me? I mean Studio S was formally announced in 2023, wasn't it? I would peg the project plan for base having been made that year. I just think Sakurai already knew he'd be returning to Smash after a break when Ultimate ended.

Sakurai wrote his next project's proposal shortly after Sora's release, and development of that game started in 2022.
So Smash either started in 2022 with Sakurai or it started in 2023 without Sakurai.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Sakurai wrote his next project's proposal shortly after Sora's release, and development of that game started in 2022.
So Smash either started in 2022 with Sakurai or it started in 2023 without Sakurai.

The only things that make me question that are that Sakurai stated that the timeframe to gather his team for that project proposal was around April 2022, but Namco didn't announce Studio 2 and Studio S until November 2023, so my questions at that point are:

A) Why would Namco wait a year and a half to simply announce the studio had been formed for joint Nintendo ventures? They didn't announce what they were working on, just the studio itself, so waiting that long even though they were already working on Smash (assuming it is Smash anyway) seems odd.

B) If Smash DID start development in that April 2022 timeframe, assuming the next Smash comes out later in the year in year 2 (2026) like Smash 4 and Ultimate did, that'd give this Smash game a four-year to four-and-a-half year development cycle. Brawl was about 2 and half years (October 2005 to January 2008), Smash 4 got about the same (early 2012 to September 2014), and Ultimate got from February 2016 to December 2018. I dunno if I believe that the game would be in development for FOUR YEARS. Honestly, if the game releases in the latter half of 2026, given most of the games get about 2.5-3 years, I wouldn't be surprised if development started late 2023 or possibly even early 2024, when his other project had been in development for about 2 years already (if we assume they are in fact different).

EDIT: Also, Sakurai said in his video that he was requested to write and wrote the new game proposal while he was working on Kazuya's showcase video and Sora was in full swing development, and production went forward with it shortly after Sora came out, which is why he was waiting on the team to be put together from October to April and made his YouTube channel to begin with. Small timeline shift that doesn't mean too much, but yeah.

 

[dream1ng]

Sakurai wrote his next project's proposal shortly after Sora's release, and development of that game started in 2022.
So Smash either started in 2022 with Sakurai or it started in 2023 without Sakurai.

With that in mind, I think we're working with too many gaps to have a clear picture, but if it was a year earlier, I don't think that precludes being able to include characters made within a window of the next year-ish. I don't think it's isolated to a spot reserved solely for Pokemon.

If Sakurai approached Monolith regarding their projects, XC3 would've been less than a year from release from the project plan, as opposed to the two+ years from Ultimate's plan and XC2.

And Sakurai has consulted with IS before over which character to include, so, it's true that Engage released over a year later from a late 2021 project plan. However, if the (otherwise accurate) leaks were anything to go by, they actually sat on a (mostly) finished Engage for, iirc, almost a year so they could work on the DLC. So it sounds possible IS would have the assets to share with Sakurai within that timeframe.

But also I don't really gaf about Noah/Mio or Alear, so if I'm incorrect and the timing didn't work for them... eh. Would only incentivize actually current Xenoblades or FEs to get promo DLC at some point, probably.

And other stuff that came later, like TotK and FDC, would still be eligible for later DLC rounds, those usually take from the timeframe of anything since the last round of selection.

I personally think we're set for a comparatively limited base selection of newcomers (not as much as Ultimate's, but still limited) with more ongoing DLC, and they can still make a perfectly decent group of base newcomers even without the last couple years of mostly promo picks.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

With that in mind, I think we're working with too many gaps to have a clear picture, but if it was a year earlier, I don't think that precludes being able to include characters made within a window of the next year-ish. I don't think it's isolated to a spot reserved solely for Pokemon.

Yes, and nothing stops Nintendo as a whole to be communicating with Sakurai more during development this time around. I feel like 2022/2023 games would probably be eligible, given most of those would have been in a very advanced state when Smash's development started.
2024/2025 games probably not, though.

The only things that make me question that are that Sakurai stated that the timeframe to gather his team for that project proposal was around April 2022, but Namco didn't announce Studio 2 and Studio S until November 2023, so my questions at that point are:

A) Why would Namco wait a year and a half to simply announce the studio had been formed for joint Nintendo ventures? They didn't announce what they were working on, just the studio itself, so waiting that long even though they were already working on Smash (assuming it is Smash anyway) seems odd.

Well, it could be as simple as Studio S already existing but only being publicly announced when they needed to hire more people.
I might be misremembering, but I think the announcement came along with some recruitment offers?

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Well, it could be as simple as Studio S already existing but only being publicly announced when they needed to hire more people.
I might be misremembering, but I think the announcement came along with some recruitment offers?

I mean maybe? The job listings and the announcement are a bit far apart. Not like terribly far apart but they announced the studios on like November 23rd and job listings went up some time in mid-December I think?

I still think it's odd to announce a new collaborative studio like a year and seven months after you make it, but it COULD be that potentially I suppose. And I still don't know if I believe a Smash game would be given a four to four and a half year dev cycle lol

EDIT: Also I'm definitely digging up stuff that we talked about when these studios first got announced, but the Studio 2 and Studio S job listings were for a 2D AND a 3D action game, so couldn't Sakurai's proposal just be the 3D one while Smash is the 2D one, potentially started around when the announcement happened since that'd place it in late 2023 for a nearly three year dev time, which is more in line with previous entries? Not to mention those Spirit events happened starting in January 2024, so why would the Smash team start adding Spirits to Ultimate nearly two years into a new game's dev cycle lol

 

[Royaru]

The last conversation got me thinking...

Throwing away any thoughts of likeliness aside..

• How much experience do you have with the Bayonetta franchise?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character outside of Smash?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character in Smash?
• How much do you think Bayonetta adds to Smash?
• What do you think of the Bayonetta franchise (not the character) content in Smash?
• Would you be sad to see her go?

• I have played the entire original trilogy on multiple platforms; Bayo 1 on PS3/Switch Bayo 2 on WiiU/Switch. I have yet to play the Cereza but I have purchased it.
• I love her story, her personality (especially in Bayo 1/2), we need more characters like her
• I like the way she plays, but I wish she would use more weapons from her games.
• It brings a fun style of gameplay to one of Nintendo's most popular franchises. It deserves its place.
• It's good! But at this point we need some more characters like Viola or little Cereza, and I don't mean more echoes.
• Yeah, but i think she is a lock for the next game.

You know, it's funny how people talk about the failure of franchises like Bayonetta or ARMS (Which has been proven false on several occasions) but never mention that Final Fantasy VII Rebirth was a disappointment in terms of sales, which led to the cancellation of several projects.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Not to mention those Spirit events happened starting in January 2024, so why would the Smash team start adding Spirits to Ultimate nearly two years into a new game's dev cycle lol

They were patching Ultimate to include support for Sora's amiibo.

April 2022 to December 2025 would be three and a half years, though. That sounds fine for Smash to me, these games always have unbelievable amounts of content and graphical fidelity only goes up...

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

April 2022 to December 2025 would be three and a half years, though. That sounds fine for Smash to me, these games always have unbelievable amounts of content and graphical fidelity only goes up...

See but that's assuming Smash will RELEASE this year when we haven't even seen the Switch 2 yet and Smash hasn't been a launch year title since Melee lol

I would assume, just like Smash 4 and Ultimate (and I think Brawl too technically since the Wii came out in like November?), that next Smash would come out in the Switch 2's second year, which would mean a reveal sometime late this year or early next year depending on how they do the reveal cycle with trailers and veterans and all that, and then a likely release in fall or winter 2026.

They're both assumptions of course, so really no way to know for sure, but a year two release like the last two Smash games feels more likely to me personally.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

See but that's assuming Smash will RELEASE this year when we haven't even seen the Switch 2 yet and Smash hasn't been a launch year title since Melee lol

I would assume, just like Smash 4 and Ultimate (and I think Brawl too technically since the Wii came out in like November?), that next Smash would come out in the Switch 2's second year, which would mean a reveal sometime late this year or early next year depending on how they do the reveal cycle with trailers and veterans and all that, and then a likely release in fall or winter 2026.

They're both assumptions of course, so really no way to know for sure, but a year two release like the last two Smash games feels more likely to me personally.

It's hard to tell what's going to happen, but releasing Smash a little earlier this time would make sense to me, it was one of the biggest slam dunks of the previous generation and I assume it's going to be a while before Zelda releases. Might want to have something that draws in the more dedicated gaming audience besides things like Mario Kart and Animal Crossing.

 

[Royaru]

I don't think the project Sakurai made in 2021 was Smash, I see it more as a passion project like Kid Icarus, and even more so considering that 2022 and 2021 were the years in which Nintendo hired the most, perhaps waiting for the team to be ready in 2022 meant forming a new team of much younger developers and perhaps finding a successor for Sakurai.

As for the next Smash, I wouldn't be surprised if the development time increased, even reaching 3.5 years or even 4. And even more so if they want to keep such a large number of characters. Personally, if Switch 2 comes out in May/June as has been said, I would think it would be normal for Smash to easily go to 2027. Perhaps Sakurai will be a co-director or even a supervisor on this Smash while he finishes his other project. But I have no doubt that the next Smash will be released between 2026 and 2027.

 

[BritishGuy54]

It's hard to tell what's going to happen, but releasing Smash a little earlier this time would make sense to me, it was one of the biggest slam dunks of the previous generation and I assume it's going to be a while before Zelda releases. Might want to have something that draws in the more dedicated gaming audience besides things like Mario Kart and Animal Crossing.

2025 might be a bit too stacked for Smash to comfortably fit in.

We’re dealing with a launch year where 3D Mario, Mario Kart, and Animal Crossing are all likely in a six-month window, and putting Smash on top of that is just not a good idea.

Smash 6 in 2026 means its only major conflict is with Pokémon Gen 10, and possibly Kirby, Fire Emblem, and Luigi’s Mansion.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

2025 might be a bit too stacked for Smash to comfortably fit in.

We’re dealing with a launch year where 3D Mario, Mario Kart, and Animal Crossing are all likely in a six-month window, and putting Smash on top of that is just not a good idea.

Or maybe it's one of those that goes to 2026 instead.

 

[Gengar84]

Or it's a Kid Icarus Uprising remake.

Hmm...Mega Man and Little Mac...vs. Simon...

Gonna have to give it to 4.

Anyone who thinks the ballot had anything to do with any Smash 4 is fooling themselves.

It's been made clear at this point that Smash characters are chosen multiple years ahead of time. The ballot ended just months before the last Smash 4 characters were revealed.

Bayonetta was always going to be in Smash 4. If she also happened to do well on the poll, that's just a happy accident.

I forgot about Mega Man. That does help 4 quite a bit but I think I still prefer K. Rool.

 

[RileyXY1]

I think that they might announce the next Smash game this year for a 2026 release, especially considering that they might be going back to tradition and not doing EIH again so I think that the prerelease cycle might be more similar to Smash 4's.

 

[fogbadge]

Sakurai was too much of a coward to add the real Ballot winner*

*In Japan

I would play as magnamite a lot

The last conversation got me thinking...

Throwing away any thoughts of likeliness aside..

• How much experience do you have with the Bayonetta franchise?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character outside of Smash?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character in Smash?
• How much do you think Bayonetta adds to Smash?
• What do you think of the Bayonetta franchise (not the character) content in Smash?
• Would you be sad to see her go?

• Enough to know I can't stand her
• Can't stand her
• Can't stand her
• Nothing of value
• Not worth bothering with
• No

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

Speaking of third-party characters and cuts...

Do y'all think Joker's coming back?

I think this would kind of depend on what direction the next game's going in. If we presume a slightly stripped-back approach that isn't a straight-up reboot, I'd bet he's reasonably safe - Nintendo and Atlus have a decent continuing relationship with some recent high-profile releases like SMTV and Metaphor, Sonic's already a character who's unlikely to be cut so it's unlikely that SEGA would want to pull out, and Persona 5 specifically (as a sub-series) is still going strong and has significant brand recognition. It's not like there's really much in the way of his inclusion.

That being said, there's always the possibility of him just not being particularly high on the totem pole for one reason or another.

I don't necessarily think he'd be outright replaced - something like a mainline SMT rep (Nahobino, probably - SMTV was a big deal) doesn't seem off the table alongside him for instance - but it might just be the case that, when negotiating licensing with different companies, it's just not as big a draw to negotiate with Atlus when you could just as easily renegotiate Microsoft inclusion for characters like Banjo and Steve, both of whom are arguably higher-profile for some reason or another (the Ballot and being ****ing Minecraft Steve, namely.)

(I should note that I'm not entirely certain how the minutae of these licensing agreements is handled, but ultimately, I'm guessing there'll be a certain element of timing that'll need to be considered either in the process of creating the early design documentation, or shortly after it's approved. You don't want to be waiting too long for approval from several different parties, so I imagine it's probably easier to negotiate with less third-party rights holders overall. Just a guess on my part, though.)

I don't see him as an obvious cut or anything, though. Not to imply there's such a thing as a "safe" pick, but he doesn't seem massively likely to be cut in my mind.

 

[NintenRob]

The last conversation got me thinking...

Throwing away any thoughts of likeliness aside..

• How much experience do you have with the Bayonetta franchise?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character outside of Smash?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character in Smash?
• How much do you think Bayonetta adds to Smash?
• What do you think of the Bayonetta franchise (not the character) content in Smash?
• Would you be sad to see her go?

I've played every Bayonetta game. I even played them on Wii U before she was in Smash.

I adore her character, she's just a bunch of dumb fun. And a bad ass

I love her in Smash. The Smash 4 DLC wasn't really speaking to me until she was added

I like how she contrasts and compliments a lot of the cast, especially the Kid Icarus crew, think like how she was one of the final World of Light characters, the final Dark character like Palutena was the final light.

Bayonetta music is phenomenal with a lot of cool locations that could be stages. Let's Dance Boys might just be a top 5 music track for me.

And yes, I would be very sad to see her go

 

[Diddy Kong]

Oh, I decided to order my favorite series represented in Smash’s roster, just the mainline entries, though I did throw I. Luigi’s Mansion and Dr. Mario as their own series, and categorized the mainline Final Fantasy series & the Final Fantasy VII series separately, DKC & DK arcade separately, and Warioware & Wario Land separately, because why not.



Ranking series like this is difficult, but I ‘m fairly satisfied with how the list turned out. The Smash series probably sits between Metroid and Final Fantasy for me (why is the Smash logo not one of the emojis for this website?).

Anyway, would be interested in seeing where these series rank for ya’ll.

Alright then. Will only be ranking the series I know of however.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

[Gengar84]

The last conversation got me thinking...

Throwing away any thoughts of likeliness aside..

• How much experience do you have with the Bayonetta franchise?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character outside of Smash?
• How do you like Bayonetta as a character in Smash?
• How much do you think Bayonetta adds to Smash?
• What do you think of the Bayonetta franchise (not the character) content in Smash?
• Would you be sad to see her go?

I bought the first Bayonetta game on PlayStation but haven’t played any of the other games. I thought the gameplay was fun but she never really clicked with me as a character. I don’t hate her but she’s not really my type of character. Bayonetta is cool in her own way but there’s something about her that keeps me from being a huge fan and I’m not entirely sure what it is. She is fun in Smash though and I’d be sad to see her go like I would for any other character. She is one of the characters I could live with if she didn’t come back just because I don’t have a super strong connection to her or her series.

 

[Diddy Kong]

For brevity I also left out how the return of the Spirit Events doesn't really make much sense unless there's a team actively working on something. Reassemble a disassembled team, crack back into Ultimate's code only for a few spirit battles? What seems likelier is the Smash team, Studio S, working on the new game, simply allocated a few resources to Ultimate, the game many of them had likely worked on previously, and had access to.

Additionally, the presence of Sega/Atlus and Konami among those who received spirits in the anniversary events could also indicate it coincided with when those companies would've been contacted to acquire/re-acquire content for the new game. As going back before those events, mixed with when Studio S was formally revealed, could roughly coincide with the timeframe of reaching out to the license holders for base.

To me, it all lines up fairly neatly given by when Nintendo usually wants a new Smash ready.

No for real. That's honestly real smart, am impressed.

Especially Konami still being active in this, we often speculated them not being the most likely of the third party developers to stick around, but Sega was not surprise of course.

I think this is probably the best bet we've got so far.

 

[Garteam]

Yeah, that sounds reasonable. Ideally, I’d like a larger roster than that but a 68 character base roster is something I could live with. I’d just hope I could keep my favorites around like Sephiroth and K. Rool and we get some newcomers that I can be excited about.

If Sakurai's next project is Smash and it releases in late 2025, I don't think a 75 character roster is that unrealistic (especially if you boost the number with echoes). Assuming development lasts from early 2022 until mid 2025, that's 3.5 years of development. To put that into perspective, Ultimate had 2.5 years of development from February 2016 until mid 2018.