Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Gengar84]

Not to get back on my bull****, but I wouldn't write off a Sunsoft character, actually. I still think Jason & SOPHIA (Blaster Master Zero) would be a really good pick mechanically, but also one that'd make a lot of sense given the decent popularity of the BMZ trilogy - and Sunsoft specifically have a pretty extensive history with Nintendo that'd lend to Jason being a pretty decent "retro" pick on top of that. Not dissimilar to people's arguments for Hayabusa, actually.

Beyond that, I still think E.M.M.I's a pretty plausible (albeit underdiscussed) character for the next title, if only because of its prominence in the marketing for Dread compared to Raven Beak, the game's final boss who essentially didn't feature in any of the marketing in comparison. Nothing against Raven Beak or anything, but E.M.M.I was pretty much concieved as a major draw for the game, and essentially acts as the main source of the game's namesake.

I’d personally rather have EMMI than Raven Beak but both would be cool. There’s just something that intrigues me about a Smash character that can crawl up walls and ceilings, plus it looks really cool. I feel like more people are familiar with EMMI than Raven Beak thanks to all the marketing.

 

[Golden Icarus]

I understand many people aren’t in love with the live service models that currently dominate the video game industry, but I feel it’s an extremely logical and even desirable direction for Smash to go in. I hardly recall a single soul complaining about Ultimate having too much post-launch support.

Get the game out as soon as possible, boost the Switch sales to the moon and keep the game alive for as long as they want with DLC. And I mean as long as they want. Fighting games like DBFZ and SF5 lasted as up to seven years and still held on to, and at points even expanded, a dedicated player base. And Smash can easily hold interest for longer than any other fighting game.

I don’t think Smash needs to become Minecraft/Fortnite and truly go on indefinitely, but the success of MK8 and Ultimate’s DLC, plus Nintendo expanding its online service only makes it more apparent to me that this is likely the future for Nintendo’s multiplayer games.

I understand preparing for every possible outcome and making the argument for why anything can happen. Nintendo, and Sakurai specifically, walk to the beat of their own drum and often move in unconventional directions, but an early Smash release, followed by 3+ years of DLC feels like quite a safe bet. Not having time to represent late Switch / early Switch 2 titles might be a bummer, but is more of an issue for nerds like us to stress about, rather than an actual concern that should hold the game back.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Give the new generation a little time to get settled. Let some big, new, system defining launch titles come out. It’d be a shame if they were so quick to push out a new Smash Bros it ended up having no content from other Switch 2 games.

Although it’s kinda unfortunate it happened before like how Brawl didn’t have that many Wii representation but instead had majority of stuff from DS, GBA and GameCube as new content.

Although Smash still has only one DS rep outside of technicalities which is Lucario.

 

[Gengar84]

I understand many people aren’t in love with the live service models that currently dominate the video game industry, but I feel it’s an extremely logical and even desirable direction for Smash to go in. I hardly recall a single soul complaining about Ultimate having too much post-launch support.

Get the game out as soon as possible, boost the Switch sales to the moon and keep the game alive for as long as they want with DLC. And I mean as long as they want. Fighting games like DBFZ and SF5 lasted as up to seven years and still held on to, and at points even expanded, a dedicated player base. And Smash can easily hold interest for longer than any other fighting game.

I don’t think Smash needs to become Minecraft/Fortnite and truly go on indefinitely, but the success of MK8 and Ultimate’s DLC, plus Nintendo expanding its online service only makes it more apparent to me that this is likely the future for Nintendo’s multiplayer games.

I understand preparing for every possible outcome and making the argument for why anything can happen. Nintendo, and Sakurai specifically, walk to the beat of their own drum and often move in unconventional directions, but an early Smash release, followed by 3+ years of DLC feels like quite a safe bet. Not having time to represent late Switch / early Switch 2 titles might be a bummer, but is more of an issue for nerds like us to stress about, rather than an actual concern that should hold the game back.

Yeah, that’s what I’m thinking too. I think live service models are fine as longs as things are priced fairly and they aren’t predatory. I think I trust Nintendo and Sakurai enough in that regard. Even if it’s as simple as just continuing the Fighter’s Passes throughout the console’s life cycle, that could be pretty cool and I’d happily keep buying them.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I feel like you're vastly overestimating how much of the previous generation gets into a Smash game. Ultimate barely has anything from Wii U and late 3DS.

It's almost as if that game was trying to be something completely different, like a game specifically aimed to please at the fans using the results of a ballot and bringing back everyone rather than being your typical Smash game.

But that's crazy talk. No way was this Ultimate's direction. No way at all.

Brawl and Smash 4 fare slightly better but they're hardly as comprehensive as you expect the next game to be. Most games get a stage or an assist at best.
And who said that newcomers have to come specifically from those three years? They have 40+ years of gaming to pull from.

You're just adding words to my mouth here. I never once said 2022-2024 was the ONLY time period that could reasonably be used.

Heck, my argument was to ensure nothing about the Switch era would be cast aside. For you to claim I just want stuff from those three years is effectively missing my point because that too would be leaving parts of the Switch era in the dust.

I want the widest net possible on the Switch era for newcomer pulls, that's all.

I feel like most of you guys among the thread's regulars have gaslighted each other into being dead sure that the next Smash must be a standard Smash game that cuts most of the more exotic 3rd party characters and adds a representative from all the late Switch-era games, but that's... One extremely specific outcome among the many, many possible ones.

Outside of a quick Bayo mention since she's basically Nintendo-funded and therefore can actually join first-party talk despite not being one, I didn't once bring up third parties in this conversation.

You're just making baseless claims about myself (can't speak for the rest of the regulars though) to justify your arguments.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Hatsune Miku in Fortnite made me remember Hatsune Miku now I want her in Smash except if Fortnite were an indicator we'd have _____ by now

Funny how recently I just remembered how Hatsune Miku was revealed for Super Monkey Ball Banana Rumble. That had me thinking about her in a new Fighters Megamix or some kind of hypothetical SEGA Smash game. lol

 

[Louie G.]

I hope the roster wasn't plotted out as far back as 2021, or whenever we're talking about. It's not like we're at a loss for character prospects one way or the other, but games like TOTK, Splatoon 3, Kirby and the Forgotten Land and Pikmin 4 having relatively little influence on some of these decisions would feel like a lapse. I'd rather not see a repeat of Xeno 2 and ARMS and have to pick up that slack later, to be honest. Metroid Dread barely even makes the cut here. And perhaps the cruelest joke is that Xenoblade 3 misses the cut by one year, again.

It's not that some of these prospects have more inherent value. But they are very significant releases for their respective series that offer substantial new material through characters, moveset updates, design updates and so forth. Thankfully I have to doubt this would influence stages or music that badly, and Sakurai may have been clued in on particular design updates like Zelda or Metroid, but I would be remiss if some of the opportunities presented by these series got short served when they have been such drastic steps forward for their respective characters and properties.

Anyway, if this was the case I'd expect some of the following games to be on the radar:

• Splatoon 2 + Octo Expansion (Overlaps with Ultimate's base window, but clearly too late to have any significant impact on Splatoon rep outside music)
• Animal Crossing: New Horizons (If the roster was decided in 2021, I think Tom Nook is the most likely character)
• Metroid Dread (Just scrapes by, maybe too late to seriously consider Raven Beak or EMMI but it may still impact Samus' default design or moveset)
• Luigi's Mansion 3 (Probably just stages, but this game sold like hotcakes and the pickings are somewhat slim among AAA Nintendo stuff here)
• Ring Fit Adventure (Duh)
• Astral Chain (The longer they waited on the roster, the less likely this is IMO. Back in 2021 Astral Chain's future felt a little brighter.)
• Pokemon Sword / Shield
• Pokemon Scarlet / Violet (Likely gets character preference, while SWSH will get a stage at least)

And here's all the stuff that we risk missing out on:

• Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (If this was too late, you missed your best shot at finally saying goodbye to Falcondorf)
• Kirby and the Forgotten Land (Might still be on the table for a stage, but the restrictive window gives another excuse to keep Kirby rep in the stone age)
• Splatoon 3 (We'll get a repeat of what happened with Splatoon 2)
• Pikmin 4 (After an effective soft reboot, it would be pretty lame if Pikmin representation lingers largely a generation behind)
• Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Hope you enjoy Pyra and Mythra: Round 2. Although I expect Noah / Mio to be far less lucky in this instance)
• Fire Emblem Engage (Well, I think it's **** out of luck either way but I still figured I'd mention it)
• Super Mario Wonder (Will probably get a stage anyway, tbh)
• Super Mario RPG (Remake) (Lol)
• Bayonetta 3
• Nintendo Switch Sports
• Emio - The Smiling Man: Famicom Detective Club (Promising IP revival kneecapped for Smash unless Sakurai took particular notice of the remakes)

 

[Guynamednelson]

I understand preparing for every possible outcome and making the argument for why anything can happen

I don't think people are really preparing for EVERY possible outcome so much as just one that they think is the safest.

But anyway I worry about Smash becoming a live service for similar reasons as to why I disagree with a straightforward port: Much like I don't want to pay $60-70 for a game I've already bought with barely any additions or improvements, I worry that a live service Smash would make me and anyone else have to pay way too much for the complete roster, including both veterans and newcomers. I think the only way I think it'd work without that worry is to pull a Dead or Alive Core Fighters on the SSBU we have already: The DoA Core Fighters games are free demo versions of DoA5 and 6 that support all the DLC from the full versions, as well as letting you buy any characters from the full game either individually or as a whole package for a reduced price.

 

[Gengar84]

I hope the roster wasn't plotted out as far back as 2021, or whenever we're talking about. It's not like we're at a loss for character prospects one way or the other, but games like TOTK, Splatoon 3, Kirby and the Forgotten Land and Pikmin 4 having relatively little influence on some of these decisions would feel like a lapse. I'd rather not see a repeat of Xeno 2 and ARMS and have to pick up that slack later, to be honest. Metroid Dread barely even makes the cut here. And perhaps the cruelest joke is that Xenoblade 3 misses the cut by one year.

It's not that some of these prospects have more inherent value. But they are very significant releases for their respective series that offer substantial new material through characters, moveset updates, design updates and so forth. Thankfully I have to doubt this would influence stages or music that badly, and Sakurai may have been clued in on particular design updates like Zelda or Metroid, but I would be remiss if some of the opportunities presented by these series got short served when they have been such drastic steps forward for their respective characters and properties.

Anyway, if this was the case I'd expect some of the following games to be on the radar:

• Splatoon 2 + Octo Expansion (Overlaps with Ultimate's base window, but clearly too late to have any significant impact on Splatoon rep outside music)
• Animal Crossing: New Horizons (If the roster was decided in 2021, I think Tom Nook is the most likely character)
• Metroid Dread (Just scrapes by, maybe too late to seriously consider Raven Beak or EMMI but it may still impact Samus' default design or moveset)
• Luigi's Mansion 3 (Probably just stages, but this game sold like hotcakes and the pickings are somewhat slim among AAA Nintendo stuff here)
• Ring Fit Adventure (Duh)
• Astral Chain (The longer they waited on the roster, the less likely this is IMO. Back in 2021 Astral Chain's future felt a little brighter.)
• Pokemon Sword / Shield
• Pokemon Scarlet / Violet (Likely gets character preference, while SWSH will get a stage at least)

And here's all the stuff that we risk missing out on:

• Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (If this was too late, you missed your best shot at finally saying goodbye to Falcondorf)
• Kirby and the Forgotten Land (Might still be on the table for a stage, but the restrictive window gives another excuse to keep Kirby rep in the stone age)
• Splatoon 3 (We'll get a repeat of what happened with Splatoon 2)
• Pikmin 4 (After an effective soft reboot, it would be pretty lame if Pikmin representation lingers largely a generation behind)
• Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Hope you enjoy Pyra and Mythra: Round 2. Although I expect Noah / Mio to be far less lucky in this instance)
• Fire Emblem Engage (Well, I think it's **** out of luck either way but I still figured I'd mention it)
• Super Mario Wonder (Will probably get a stage anyway, tbh)
• Super Mario RPG (Remake) (Lol)
• Bayonetta 3
• Nintendo Switch Sports
• Emio - The Smiling Man: Famicom Detective Club (Promising IP revival kneecapped for Smash unless Sakurai took particular notice of the remakes)

Considering my most wanted characters from several of those series are Gengar, Hisuian Zoroark, Nia, Elma, Impa, Midna, the Black Knight, Goomba, EMMI and Bugzzy and I have no real connection to the other franchises listed, I’m personally okay with that. Astral Chain and Golden Sun are my most wanted new Nintendo IP reps for Smash.

I know that’s just being selfish but it would actually help the chances of seeing my most wanted. I’ve suggested Elfis and no one really seemed interested so I’m not sure anyone besides me actively wants a Forgotten Land character anyways. Same for Rauru from Tears of the Kingdom. I think a lot more people either want a BotW champion of an older Zelda character.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I understand preparing for every possible outcome and making the argument for why anything can happen. Nintendo, and Sakurai specifically, walk to the beat of their own drum and often move in unconventional directions, but an early Smash release, followed by 3+ years of DLC feels like quite a safe bet. Not having time to represent late Switch / early Switch 2 titles might be a bummer, but is more of an issue for nerds like us to stress about, rather than an actual concern that should hold the game back.

Is this not... literally what Ultimate did though? It was a year two release (2018) and had DLC until October 2021 with Sora.

So essentially, the game coming out in 2026 and maybe having started development a bit later, like in late 2023... doesn't really change this possible outcome?

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

It's almost as if that game was trying to be something completely different, like a game specifically aimed to please at the fans using the results of a ballot and bringing back everyone rather than being your typical Smash game.

But that's crazy talk. No way was this Ultimate's direction. No way at all.

Of course, but you said "making sure nothing from the previous generation is left behind, something that again, Smash has historically done for three games in a row by now" and earlier you said that that was since Brawl, so it left Ultimate on the table.
Not trying to be nitpicky, maybe I misunderstood what you meant.
Like, I don't think that something being "up for grabs" is particularly relevant if you don't end up grabbing it. The next game might very well go in a different direction too.

You're just adding words to my mouth here. I never once said 2022-2024 was the ONLY time period that could reasonably be used.

Heck, my argument was to ensure nothing about the Switch era would be cast aside. For you to claim I just want stuff from those three years is effectively missing my point because that too would be leaving parts of the Switch era in the dust.

You listed all those games from 2022-2024. I disagreed that having all of them play a large role in the next Smash is particularly vital.

 

[Louie G.]

Considering my most wanted characters from several of those series are Nia, Impa, the Black Knight, Goomba, EMMI and Bugzzy and I have no real connection to the other franchises listed, I’m personally okay with that. I know that’s just being selfish but it would actually help the chances of seeing my most wanted.

Well best of luck to you, but I don't think most of these lapses help anyone here substantially outside of maybe Impa (who doesn't hurt from a few more years either, there was a new Zelda game that she is in). Seeing how Metroid Dread was a late 2021 release it puts EMMI on thin ice too, you'd be in a better position with that had the roster been decided one year later.

I don't know if selfish is what comes to mind when I see this, but misled might be a better way to describe your mindset here. Just because they don't have to compete with a couple dozen largely unrelated contemporary characters doesn't mean everything is coming up Bugzzy. That's maybe 20 characters less out of a pool of a couple hundred other viable candidates, so I don't think pushing Smash up a couple years is worth the gamble for specifically these picks. I dunno, it just feels like kind of a silly mentality to apply here.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

But how could Sakurai have known back in 2021 that the next couple years would have been the most vital ones for so many series represented in Smash?

...Look, I just really, really, really don't think that "Let's wait some more years before we make the next game, so that we might have more material to update some characters!" has ever been a thought in the mind of anyone tasked with the decision to develop a Smash game. They most likely want it to be ready in time for XXXX year and work out the contents from there.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

You listed all those games from 2022-2024. I disagreed that having all of them play a large role in the next Smash is particularly vital.

To play Devil's Advocate here, I will admit Nintendo has more than enough characters that they could fill entire rosters while completely skipping the Switch, Wii U, 3DS, Wii, DS, GBA eras, maybe even GameCube too. Their lineup of characters is genuinely insane so it's not like missing four years of Switch will mean they don't have any newcomer options anymore.

But Smash likes to be about both the old and the new. Even Ultimate, the game that heavily leaned towards the Ballot's results, threw in characters that weren't a thing before 2015 between all the fan requests like Inkling, Joker or literally all the first-party DLC fighters.

I feel like giving the late Switch games a change by having Smash's project plan happen in 2023 rather than 2021 is the better play. Even if none of those older games get playable representation, it would still be nice to know it was at a time window when they could be genuinely considered instead of missing out base game due to poor timing and also being skipped for DLC due to being part of a console that's no longer supported.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

You listed all those games from 2022-2024. I disagreed that having all of them play a large role in the next Smash is particularly vital.

What do you consider a "large role" exactly, because the games listed were the newest Mario game, the newest Zelda games, the newest FE game (which usually gets something, mind), Pikmin 4 and Xenoblade 3 when both of their series have seen huge growth on the Switch...

But how could Sakurai have known back in 2021 that the next couple years would have been the most vital ones for so many series represented in Smash?

...Look, I just really, really, really don't think that "Let's wait some more years before we make the next game, so that we might have more material to update some characters!" has ever been a thought in the mind of anyone tasked with the decision to develop a Smash game.

I mean I don't think Sakurai looked at a calendar like "Hm, I should delay Smash by a couple years to get more material to work with..." I just think the specific proposal he mentioned wasn't Smash and Smash may have started later closer to when Studio 2 and Studio S were actually announced, and he may be overseeing both right now since the studios had job listings for TWO projects.

Like maybe the proposal is the 3D action game, but Sakurai got asked to make a Smash for Switch 2 as well sometime in 2023, so the team sorta split, hence why they had job listings for both even though the proposal's team had been around for a year and a half.

 

[Louie G.]

so it left Ultimate on the table.

I mean, half of Ultimate's newcomers were from the 3DS and Wii U era. Yeah, only half of six characters, but with such a small sample size it's kind of difficult to make sense of any pattern. Three were fan favorite legacy characters, three were contemporary faces from successful newer Nintendo games that were not practical for Smash 4. Isabelle is on the bubble here but mind that New Leaf was able to get supplemental material in Smash 4, Animal Crossing was new to the series (taking pointers from City Folk, mainly) and New Leaf was released several months after the proposal.

Brawl got to celebrate the full scope of the Gamecube and the beginning of the DS with a roster decided in 2005, Smash 4 got to see out the Wii, the remainder of the DS and the beginning of the 3DS with a roster from 2011. Smash Ultimate saw the Wii U and a late stage 3DS release celebrated, alongside some earlier Switch content. So next game would see the twilight of the Switch, and perhaps whatever is feasible from Switch 2 platformed if we're continuing the trend.

I'm not saying that the game will specifically be delayed to account for this and that, but I am saying it would be a stark break in routine for next game to be missing the last few years of the Switch, where we'd still picking up previous generation slack through DLC and into the future of the series. I just don't think 2021 gives us that much wiggle room. It could happen, but I'd be disappointed in screwing with this comfortable pace the series has been at for almost 20 years. If it ain't broke, why force it? A roster decided in 2023 can see a 2026-2027 release and that would be perfectly in-line with Smash's usual shtick.

 

[Gengar84]

Well best of luck to you, but I don't think most of these lapses help anyone here substantially outside of maybe Impa (who doesn't hurt from a few more years either, there was a new Zelda game that she is in). Seeing how Metroid Dread was a late 2021 release it puts EMMI on thin ice too, you'd be in a better position with that had the roster been decided one year later.

I don't know if selfish is what comes to mind when I see this, but misled might be a better way to describe your mindset here. Just because they don't have to compete with a couple dozen largely unrelated contemporary characters doesn't mean everything is coming up Bugzzy. That's maybe 20 characters less out of a pool of a couple hundred other viable candidates, so I don't think pushing Smash up a couple years is worth the gamble for specifically these picks. I dunno, it just feels like kind of a silly mentality to apply here.

Yeah, I’m aware that most of my most wanted characters have little to no chance. Bugzzy in particular is a pipe dream, I admit. I’m not exactly expecting any of my favorites anyways. But there is a bit less competition if they don’t have to worry as much about being current. I think the biggest example of where the timeline actually greatly helps a character I want is Hisuian Zoroark. Since it didn’t have Scarlet and Violet to compete with and was being pushed quite a bit at the time, the late 2021 early 2022 window actually gives it a decent shot.

If I’m being entirely realistic, I’m fully expecting to be extremely disappointed in Smash 6’s roster where I’m likely to lose many of my favorites and not get any of the characters I’d be most excited for. I think it’s a near guarantee that I won’t like the roster as much as Ultimate’s unless they somehow repeat Everyone is Here. Almost all the most speculated characters don’t really interest me much and my favorites are the ones everyone is expecting to be cut. So I don’t want to give off the wrong impression that I’m actually expecting the next Smash to cater to my personal tastes. If anything, it’s the opposite.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

This speculation cycle is already shaping up to be exhausting and we don't even have a confirmed Smash yet.


Whatever Sakurai's project is, I hope it gets revealed quickly so we can have at least some timeframe to work with.

I think the biggest example of where the timeline actually greatly helps a character I want is Hisuian Zoroark. Since it didn’t have Scarlet and Violet to compete with and was being pushed quite a bit at the time, the late 2021 early 2022 window actually gives it a decent shot.

Except with how Pokémon has worked, it would have Scarlet and Violet to contend with and be beaten out by exactly like the original Zoroark did.

 

[Gengar84]

This speculation cycle is already shaping up to be exhausting and we don't even have a confirmed Smash yet.


Whatever Sakurai's project is, I hope it gets revealed quickly so we can have at least some timeframe to work with.





Except with how Pokémon has worked, it would have Scarlet and Violet to contend with and be beaten out by exactly like the original Zoroark did.

Yeah, that’s probably true but let me have at least a little hope lol. I mean, I like Meowscarada and everything but does every single pokemon newcomer from here on have to be a starter from the most recent generation? We just got a Dark type cat starter in Ultimate.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Honestly, this 2021/2022 proposal (which was written at lightning speed btw and doesn't feel to me like a Smash project plan that gets iterated on over time, but that's besides the point) kind of reminds me of how Iwata asked Sakurai to make a launch title for the 3DS back in like 2008, which eventually became Kid Icarus Uprising.

Could've just been someone at Nintendo going up to him like "Hey, can you make a launch title for the Switch 2?" Even has about the same time frame, since KI:U was 2008-2011 developmentally and this would be like 2022-2025 give or take.

 

[Guynamednelson]

which was written at lightning speed btw and doesn't feel to me like a Smash project plan that gets iterated on over time, but that's besides the point

Something to consider regarding that

The timestamp shows that Ultimate's project plan alone was over 200 pages. While the video also shows that said pages all have minimal content on them, would it really be possible to create a 200+ page project plan for a Smash game within some "lighting speed" timespan, whatever that means?

 

[Gengar84]

Anyways, I do still stand by that Smash is best when it brings in characters from across gaming history, and that includes the newest ones from 2022-2024. I just wanted to make a distinction that what’s best for me personally doesn’t mean it’s best for the game. Just because I don’t particularly care about a ton of characters in that 2022-2024 window doesn’t mean that others don’t. I’m just speaking from the standpoint of what I’d personally be most hyped for, not what’s most realistic or even what should happen.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Yeah, that’s probably true but let me have at least a little hope lol. I mean, I like Meowscarada and everything but does every single pokemon newcomer from here on have to be a starter from the most recent generation? We just got a Dark type cat starter in Ultimate.

Except as I've said repeatedly, there is more than just Meowscarada as an option. We have other potential options among the likes of Ceruledge and Tinkaton that can easily appeal to Sakurai on a conceptual level.
We are not limited to Starters, and even if we were, we aren't limited to just Meowscarada when Quaquaval exists.

Just because Meowscarada is the one people obsess over doesn't mean it's a lock.
Cinderace wasn't.
Decidueye wasn't.
Sceptile wasn't.
Zoroark wasn't.

The fandom doesn't exactly have the best record when it comes to Pokémon.

 

[Gengar84]

Except as I've said repeatedly, there is more than just Meowscarada as an option. We have other potential options among the likes of Ceruledge and Tinkaton that can easily appeal to Sakurai on a conceptual level.
We are not limited to Starters, and even if we were, we aren't limited to just Meowscarada when Quaquaval exists.

Just because Meowscarada is the one people obsess over doesn't mean it's a lock.
Cinderace wasn't.
Decidueye wasn't.
Sceptile wasn't.
Zoroark wasn't.

The fandom doesn't exactly have the best record when it comes to Pokémon.

That’s true. Meowscarada is by far my favorite starter from Scarlet and Violet so if we had to get a one, I’d much prefer it to the others (despite being a second Dark type cat in a row). You’re right though that it’s not a guarantee we’ll get a starter at all. Out of the realistic options, I’d be pretty hyped for Ceruledge. My other favorites from the gen are Great Tusk, Lokix, Koraidon, Miraidon, Iron Thorns and Annihalape. I’m not sure any of those have a huge chance beyond Ceruledge but I’d be happy with any of them.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

As far as recent releases which may or may not have their additions in the SSB sequel, this is why Donkey Kong's been playing 4D chess:

 

[The Black Omen]

I'm only now starting to ease back into the Nintendo sphere so this thread has been very enlightening! Until now, I thought we were all supposed to believe Sakurai's new project was something new, and not Smash 6. I still wouldn't be surprised if we just get a deluxe release of Ultimate.

I don't think we'll know anything for sure until the game starts getting leaked, but if I'm gonna place some bets of my own...

• Piranha Plant is staying. In fact, I'll wager that every Mario and Pokemon character will stick around, as will nearly every Fire Emblem character. Maybe Corrin will be cut to make way for the inevitable two or three new guys, but it all depends on what's easiest for the devs and what Nintendo thinks will be the most appealing.
• Waluigi probably won't be getting in. I know that if I were told to kill myself because I didn't include a character in my game, any chance of that character getting in would be dashed. And that's a shame! I tuned into every Ultimate Direct hoping for Waluigi. The kid in me still wants him. But alas.
• For the record, I haven't played Mario Wonder, Tears of the Kingdom, Echoes of Wisdom, the latest Kirby games or Metroid Dread. So I'm very out of the loop, but even if these games weren't yet released when Smash 6 theoretically began development, I can imagine Link and Samus having their designs updated to reflect those games, with Samus' previous design being relegated to an alt skin.
• Despite Animal Crossing's explosion in popularity, I can't imagine how many more characters could be added to the roster. Isabelle's moveset was already a bit of a stretch. But there probably will be a tsunami of Assist Trophies and Mii Costumes.
• I have no idea what stages will make it in, but I'll go out on a limb and say a lot of them will be cut to make way for some new ones. There'll definitely be fewer stages than in Ultimate.

And of course, new Pokemon, Steve will be staying, all the obvious stuff. I'm sure these predictions will be as wildly inaccurate as they are wildly uninformed, but this has been on my mind and so I thought I might as well throw my two cents into the ring.

 

[AreJay25]

All I know is that if Sakurai IS working on something that isn't Smash, you better believe it's getting representation of some kind in Smash 6 lol.

 

[Schnee117]

As far as recent releases which may or may not have their additions in the sequel, this is why Donkey Kong's been playing 4D chess:

Don't worry, it'll still be missing Tropical Freeze content and any stage content that isn't an arcade game or another generic jungle stage

pain peko

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

That’s true. Out of the realistic options, I’d be pretty hyped for Ceruledge. My other favorites from the gen are Great Tusk, Lokix, Koraidon, Miraidon, Iron Thorns and Annihalape. I’m not sure any of those have a huge chance beyond Ceruledge but I’d be happy with any of them.

My most wanted out of the Gen 9 group would have to be Baxcalibur just because it's the closest to Godzilla I'd ever get.

....and yeah, I'd have to bank on the idea of Sakurai wanting to go all ham on a Showa Godzilla expy over all other options, which even I can admit is a really hard sell compared to trickster street magician, dance battler, ghost knight with blade hands, fiesty gremlin with bigass hammer, etc.

....and Anhilape just because the Mankey line was among my favorite Pokémon in my early childhood. But again, a harder sell on the concept unfortunately.

I really lucked out with Incineroar in terms of my favorites and most wanted out of the set happening to have an appealing concept to Sakurai. I don't really expect lightning to strike twice for me here lol.

All I know is that if Sakurai IS working on something that isn't Smash, you better believe it's getting representation of some kind in Smash 6 lol.

Unless it's a licensed property like Mushiking.



.....or something like Meteos I suppose.

 

[Louie G.]

So actually, with all this talk I figured I would break down how this character balance has panned out over the last 15+ years. How much emphasis is put on the previous generation, and so forth. Will only be accounting for first party characters, and excluding echo fighters.

Brawl's proposal was drafted in 2005. Most additions were relevant through the Gamecube / GBA era or introduced during it, and the characters were chosen at a transitional period between generations. Lucario is the sole DS character. Note that Wario is able to play both sides here, I put him in the former since he's clearly not "new" but he does serve to represent a notable new IP from the previous GBA era.

- Recurring characters from currently active IP
- New characters / concepts from previous / current era
- Legacy

Smash 4's proposal was 2012. Lot of the same stuff going on here, and 2012 was comfortably the cutoff point between the Wii and the Wii U. Brawl's roster did not touch the Wii at all, so Smash 4 picked up the slack. The dawn of the 3DS is represented fruitfully here too. DS is done a bit dirty, it feels.

- Recurring characters from currently active IP
* - New characters / concepts from previous / current era
- Legacy

And then Ultimate's proposal in early 2016. The Switch was a year on the horizon and the Wii U / 3DS years were wrapping up, DLC allowed them to pick up the slack on a couple early Switch titles that missed the timeframe and one fresh in-the-moment add in Byleth like Corrin before them.

- Fan request
- New characters / concepts from previous era
- Post-release Switch era characters
- Piranha Plant

Coincidental or otherwise, every new Smash seems to be drafted at the tail end of a generation. And the character focus has consistently been at least 50% fixated on bringing in the fresh blood from that previous generation, to keep the roster fresh and up-to-date. So while a draft in 2021 is possible, it would be a notable formula break compared to somewhere around 2023 during a transitional period - more accurate to the series' usual flow, and roster emphasis. I honestly have a hard time crafting a Brawl-like roster of newcomers with the limited timeframe that 2021 gives us to explore.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Just because Meowscarada is the one people obsess over doesn't mean it's a lock.

And just because we were blindsided doesn't mean a broken clock isn't sometimes right. At least people who think a Gen 9 rep has to be Meowscarada have reasons for thinking it other than an arbitrary grass starter quota.

 

[Gengar84]

Man, now I need some cheering up lol. I don’t like reminding myself that I probably won’t get any newcomers I’m excited for and will almost definitely lose several that I am. It definitely sucks having such wildly different tastes than most of the fandom. I’m happy deluding myself that I could actually be excited for the game but it’s going to be extremely difficult.

Most people are predicting a much smaller roster, so I’m probably losing most of my favorite veterans and don’t have much hope for my most wanted newcomers. Most people think Subspace Emissary will never happen again, which would be the one thing that could make me content with a smaller roster. I’m not entirely sure what the game could possibly do for me if both of these predictions are accurate. I guess I’ll keep speculating on the premise that we’ll have a big roster again, otherwise it’s kind of pointless for me to hope for anything.

The one silver lining is that Ultimate actually gave me a lot to be excited for with its roster. Even if I was disappointed with its modes, it was always fun to go back to and mess around with stuff. I could have never expected to get Sephiroth, Joker, K. Rool, and Ridley, which were all among my most wanted. Since the Switch 2 is confirmed backwards compatible, I can always just keep playing Ultimate. I just hope Switch 2 can be modded so I can keep enjoying the game through that.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

And just because we were blindsided doesn't mean a broken clock isn't sometimes right. At least people who think a Gen 9 rep has to be Meowscarada have reasons for thinking it other than an arbitrary grass starter quota.

Reasons that didn't help in the past either.

Remember how Ash having a Rowlett meant Decidueye was a "lock"?

There's really no good track record for Pokémon because ultimately, people forget that it's not about who's the most prevalent/marketed in Pokémon media or about "filling quotas" but simply whichever one Sakurai thinks is the coolest based on whatever selection he's given.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

That one was kind of on you. You probably should have stopped that guy when you had the chance.

Unfortunately it's a cannon event, so he couldn't save him.

His parents on the other hand...

Waluigi probably won't be getting in. I know that if I were told to kill myself because I didn't include a character in my game, any chance of that character getting in would be dashed. And that's a shame! I tuned into every Ultimate Direct hoping for Waluigi. The kid in me still wants him. But alas.

I don't think a couple death threats from people who don't even speak your language will factor into character choice. He might not be in anyway, but I doubt this would be the reason.

There's really no good track record for Pokémon because ultimately, people forget that it's not about who's the most prevalent/marketed in Pokémon media or about "filling quotas" but simply whichever one Sakurai thinks is the coolest based on whatever selection he's given.

I do think it's important to note that "who is (or who's is going to be) the most prevalant/marketed in Pokémon media" is what gives him that list, but yeah, it is a list that to us, might as well be picked at random.

 

[fogbadge]

Back on topic, are there any characters you’d like to see that were particularly relevant around 2021, assuming that’s when Smash 6’s roster was being decided? Two big ones for me are Jinx and Alphen/Shionne as both Arcane and Tales of Arise came out that year.

well taking a quick glance at what was out in 2021, Super Mario 3D World is still missing one playable character as a smash fighter

also metroid dread, NTWEWY, the FDC remakes and it's be nice to see new pokemon snap get a nod

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I do think it's important to note that "who is (or who's is going to be) the most prevalant/marketed in Pokémon media" is what gives him that list, but yeah, it is a list that to us, might as well be picked at random.

And even if we would know the list, the true answer is "which one is closest to being Sakurai-core?"

No other argument matters because, as much as people like to throw "Sakurai bias" around whenever content from his games get love, the recent Pokémon characters are the only examples where the bias is explicitly stated.

Did Incineroar get in because of competitive notoriety? Was it because of his upcoming major moments in the anime?

No. Sakurai just wanted a wrestler. That's all the reasoning for why he got in.

I do think Meowscarada's street magician angle does give him brownie points if Gen 9 gets a rep but that's my opinion, not Sakurai's.

 

[Louie G.]

My problem with Meowscarada is people are usually speculating them for the wrong reasons.

I actually think they have a really solid chance of being chosen if we get a Gen 9 Pokemon, but not because they're grass or even because they're popular... it's because just like Greninja and Incineroar before it, Meowscarada has a distinct archetype to build off for a fun moveset. A "magician" with flashy spectacle and disorienting illusionary moves could be a lot of fun and I would see that inspiring something in Sakurai even amongst the competition.

I feel like if more people argued for it on that front, there would be less debate to be had. But the damage is already done on the obligatory grass type speculation where I think many people just don't want to resign to that again. Maybe they'll stumble into being right this time though.

 

[Guynamednelson]

But the damage is already done on the obligatory grass type speculation where I think many people just don't want to resign to that again

Well I just...don't want to resign to "fully-evolved humanoid starter from the latest generation" period, but the Pokemon Company execs aren't gonna give me a lot of options. If Legends Arceus is confirmed to be on the table somehow, I'd hope that at least means Oshawott can get in.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

• Waluigi probably won't be getting in. I know that if I were told to kill myself because I didn't include a character in my game, any chance of that character getting in would be dashed. And that's a shame! I tuned into every Ultimate Direct hoping for Waluigi. The kid in me still wants him. But alas.

While I have my doubts on Waluigi in spite him being my most wanted overall, the dumb Wah/11 memes made by three idiots isn't going to mean anything.

If it were a matter of what a fanbase did when they didn't get their character, we wouldn't have gotten since his fanbase doesn't exactly have clean hands on the matter....

....and even when they did get their character there was some depravity involved. Typically towards Ashley and her fanbase.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Well I just...don't want to resign to "fully-evolved humanoid starter from the latest generation" period, but the Pokemon Company execs aren't gonna give me a lot of options. If Legends Arceus is confirmed to be on the table somehow, I'd hope that at least means Oshawott can get in.

You're gonna get Hisuian Decidueye since there's no wrestler for him to, well, wrestle against and you're going to love it!