Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[KneeOfJustice99]

What character reveal style do you want for Smash 6? Brawl era dojo style? Smash 4 with a dojo lite and the splash reveals or Ultimate with big direct reveals?

...I think the Dojo is actually my preference for this sort of thing, but I don't mind going both ways. Splash reveals are good for hype and make decent thumbnails, but Dojo articles can lend to a little bit of a mindset into why a character was chosen, what sort of design principles go into them, or even just funky little tidbits related to the character. A mix of both seems nice, but it'd be nice to get a more substantial insight from either Sakurai himself, or whoever the interns behind the Dojo end up being, rather than just a new addition to the game's official webpage consisting entirely of "#092: George W. Bush" and a collection of still frames from their tailor-made trailer.

In fact, that kind of thing is why I really liked some of the "Mr. Sakurai Presents" Directs for Ultimate's DLC characters, and while I'm sure not every character in the game would have 40 minutes worth of content to write about (for instance, Terry's unique direct had a little diatribe on SNK's history, which a character like say, Rosalina, might not need), it'd still be nice to see a little bit of something for each character - whether it be a quick history, a design breakdown, or even just little elements of how returning characters are switched up this time.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I hope Sakurai presents are still a thing in the next game, those were fun

 

[Perkilator]

Honestly, I wouldn’t mind if characters had a little blurb describing how they play, like with the little character videos for NASB2 and Street Fighter 6.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Why would one actively want a smaller roster

Oh, you know.

Not wanting to hear the seven deadly words, "Please don't expect too many new fighters", again.

 

[Gengar84]

Oh, you know.

Not wanting to hear the seven deadly words, "Please don't expect too many new fighters", again.

Unfortunately, a smaller roster pretty much necessitates that we won’t get many new fighters and severely hurts the chances of less mainstream newcomer options. So many characters are basically essential to Smash at this point. You’d basically have to scale back the roster to just 35 veterans and 15 newcomers if you want to keep a roster that small with a decent amount of new fighters. I’d argue that the extra 8-10 newcomers we’d get doesn’t make up for losing over half the current roster, especially since I’m very likely to be less interested in those characters compared to what we’d be losing. That also basically kills any chances of seeing additional fighters from third party IPs. They’re not going to cut Ryu for Chun-Li, Mega Man for Zero or Sonic for Shadow. That goes for first party too. I don’t expect them to cut Shulk for Noah, Diddy for Dixie or Meta Knight for Bandana Dee.

 

[The Prankster 16]

What character reveal style do you want for Smash 6? Brawl era dojo style? Smash 4 with a dojo lite and the splash reveals or Ultimate with big direct reveals?

I think 4 is the way to go if this game does have major cuts. Like Thegameandwatch said, reveal veterans on the "dojo" and save the newcomers for directs. Keep the less hype newcomers for standard Nintendo Directs and elaborate on them further on the dojo or in a Smash Direct, and then the big "hype" characters for the Summer direct / Smash Directs / Game Awards.

 

[Guynamednelson]

severely hurts the chances of less mainstream newcomer options

A small number of newcomers hurts that more, just look at the 6 unique newcomers Ultimate was able to cobble together for its base game. They were all safe in some way, whether it's from being from a recent multimillion seller or a big fan request.

 

[Gengar84]

A small number of newcomers hurts that more, just look at the 6 unique newcomers Ultimate was able to cobble together for its base game. They were all safe in some way, whether it's from being from a recent multimillion seller or a big fan request.

With a larger roster, you at least have a higher chance of seeing those more niche and supporting characters as DLC. A much smaller overall roster will basically need to limit it to only the most essential characters. More niche characters would feel really out of place when we’re missing so many of the iconic characters that came before. That’s why I think a middle ground of around 70 base fighters actually gives us the highest chance of getting the most newcomers. The smaller the overall roster, the more you’d have to cut essential characters to get a good amount of new fighters.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I see no way how Xenoblade gets knocked down to just Shulk. No Pythra, no newcomer for 3…

The assumption was that the roster would have been made around 2021, so no Noah or Mio unfortunately.

I'm also just really pessimistic on Pyra/Mythra's chances over other characters, though it may be caused by bias toward older characters.

 

[Diddy Kong]

This is almost certainly the case. Like I mentioned previously, Sakurai's last video had him state that the development for his new game began on April 2022. It's been 33 months since then. For comparison, Ultimate's development took 34 months. This new game will be the Smash Bros with the longest development ever.

Personally speaking, I wouldn't mind waiting longer if it means the development team can make sure that the game has as much content as possible.

I don't think we have much to fear here. 33 months is a lot, and this next Sakurai project is 99,99999% Smash. Has to be.

We won't be suffering mass cuts. I'll call it out. I think the only significant cuts we get is from third party licensing issues, and maybe a few characters not exactly high in priority the first place. Like a Young Link and Pichu or so.

Ultimate likely will provide a great solid base and I doubt they have to start all over with move sets.

This next Smash is gonna blow all of our minds. I'm 100% confident in this. Sakurai will outdo himself yet again.

 

[Guynamednelson]

With a larger roster, you at least have a higher chance of seeing those more niche and supporting characters as DLC. A much smaller overall roster will basically need to limit it to only the most essential characters. More niche characters would feel really out of place when we’re missing so many of the iconic characters that came before. That’s why I think a middle ground of around 70 base fighters actually gives us the highest chance of getting the most newcomers. The smaller the overall roster, the more you’d have to cut essential characters to get a good amount of new fighters.

When you're making a small number of newcomers, only one of them can be weird-ish at best. Min Min was in the same pass as the Steve, Sephiroth (who wouldn't have made it if Cloud wasn't lacking content), Kazuya, and Sora, not Fat Ice Hockey Player.

 

[Gengar84]

When you're making a small number of newcomers, only one of them can be weird-ish at best. Min Min was in the same pass as the Steve, Sephiroth (who wouldn't have made it if Cloud wasn't lacking content), Kazuya, and Sora, not Fat Ice Hockey Player.

My point is that a smaller overall roster almost requires a smaller amount of newcomers. Smash has too many characters that are too important to realistically cut at this point and most of the replacements would struggle to compete.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I feel like it will be closer to 60-65 characters for the base roster for Smash 6 but that's my opinion.

 

[The Prankster 16]

I really like to make smash rosters, so after looking at everyone's predictions for what characters would return or be cut I revised one of my possible rosters. It's 69 fighters, 6 being echoes. 57 veterans and 12 newcomers, which I have highlighted in Blue. I do think this might be a bit too generous though, I could probably do with cutting around 7 more veterans and adding a couple more newcomers.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I say let him work on what he’s most passionate about. If that’s Smash, cool, if not, that’s good too.

NO!

I really like to make smash rosters, so after looking at everyone's predictions for what characters would return or be cut I revised one of my possible rosters.

Solid newcomers.

 

[Gengar84]

I really like to make smash rosters, so after looking at everyone's predictions for what characters would return or be cut I revised one of my possible rosters. It's 69 fighters, 6 being echoes. 57 veterans and 12 newcomers, which I have highlighted in Blue. I do think this might be a bit too generous though, I could probably do with cutting around 7 more veterans and adding a couple more newcomers.
View attachment 398081

This seems like a pretty solid roster overall. It sucks losing my favorite character in Sephiroth but it’s reasonable. A lot of the newcomers are pretty cool even if none quite crack my personal top 10.

 

[Ivander]

I'll see what happens overall with Xenoblade 3 getting a character or not, and whether Rex does happen eventually, but Pyra & Mythra are absolutely not leaving Smash Bros. Like, if people are keeping in Robin and Byleth in their rosters because of the impact of both Awakening and Three Houses had on Fire Emblem, Pyra & Mythra are staying because not only was Xenoblade 2 the best selling game of the series, but Pyra & Mythra practically eclipse most of the other Xenoblade characters in popularity, even before their appearance in Smash Bros.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think one thing to consider is rollback netcode. At this point, it should be clear that every fighting game needs this feature, and if Smash wants to have it, they can't really use Ultimate as a base, as how Smash currently works is aggressively rollback unfriendly. This alone could cause a hefty amount of cuts depending on how much time it takes for them to rebuild the game from the ground up.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I think one thing to consider is rollback netcode. At this point, it should be clear that every fighting game needs this feature, and if Smash wants to have it, they can't really use Ultimate as a base, as how Smash currently works is aggressively rollback unfriendly. This alone could cause a hefty amount of cuts depending on how much time it takes for them to rebuild the game from the ground up.

I feel like if its included then they will probably limit to 1v1 itemless to prevent issues.

 

[Gengar84]

I think one thing to consider is rollback netcode. At this point, it should be clear that every fighting game needs this feature, and if Smash wants to have it, they can't really use Ultimate as a base, as how Smash currently works is aggressively rollback unfriendly. This alone could cause a hefty amount of cuts depending on how much time it takes for them to rebuild the game from the ground up.

I, for one, would not take that trade. I’ve played Ultimate online maybe once or twice. I have no interest in competitive online games and I only play Smash locally with friends. Even if Smash had the absolute best online servers ever, it would still feel like a huge downgrade to me if that came at the expense of in game content.

 

[The Prankster 16]

This seems like a pretty solid roster overall. It sucks losing my favorite character in Sephiroth but it’s reasonable. A lot of the newcomers are pretty cool even if none quite crack my personal top 10.

The veterans I felt the most bad cutting were Incineroar, Palutena, Wolf and Lucina. I didn't bring back the other Squenix reps because it's pretty clear that the rights are a hassle and the only reason we had so much content was because of the DLC. That also means I was hesitant to keep the Microsoft reps since they might want that extra cash. Konami is wierd and i'm 50/50 on them returning but they were pretty generous for base game Ultimate.

For newcomers, I'd prefer a wild-era character for zelda but Skull Kid is much more requested and iconic. Akira Howard and Ayumi Tachibana were from two new series that I wanted to rep but I tried to be limited with my choices. Raven Beak is probably my most wanted Nintendo rep for the next game, but I could settle with Sylux as well.

 

[Gengar84]

The veterans I felt the most bad cutting were Incineroar, Palutena, Wolf and Lucina. I didn't bring back the other Squenix reps because it's pretty clear that the rights are a hassle and the only reason we had so much content was because of the DLC. That also means I was hesitant to keep the Microsoft reps since they might want that extra cash. Konami is wierd and i'm 50/50 on them returning but they were pretty generous for base game Ultimate.

For newcomers, I'd prefer a wild-era character for zelda but Skull Kid is much more requested and iconic. Akira Howard and Ayumi Tachibana were from two new series that I wanted to rep but I tried to be limited with my choices. Raven Beak is probably my most wanted Nintendo rep for the next game, but I could settle with Sylux as well.

Yeah, that makes sense. I was a bit more idealistic in my own fan roster but that’s part of the fun for me. I kept Ultimate’s post DLC roster size and cut about 18 fighters for 18 newcomers with three fighter’s passes. I think you could probably cut about 12 characters from my base roster and move them to additional fighter’s passes and it’s not entirely unrealistic.

 

[Guynamednelson]

My point is that a smaller overall roster almost requires a smaller amount of newcomers. Smash has too many characters that are too important to realistically cut at this point and most of the replacements would struggle to compete.

They're not going to magically have resources for more newcomers, let alone obscure ones, just because the roster is bigger. If anything it should be the other way around since, you know, bringing back everyone was already a drain on resources and it's not going to magically stop just because you like the big number.

 

[The Prankster 16]

Yeah, that makes sense. I was a bit more idealistic in my own fan roster but that’s part of the fun for me. I kept Ultimate’s post DLC roster size and cut about 18 fighters for 18 newcomers with three fighter’s passes. I think you could probably cut about 12 characters from my base roster and move them to additional fighter’s passes and it’s not entirely unrealistic.

Yeah, speaking of veterans being DLC, how do you think it'll be handled? For Sm4sh they were sold for $3.99 while newcomers with a stage were $5.99 (corrin was $4.99 becuase they didnt come with a stage). With how many characters are going to be cut though, I could see them being sold in packs during the DLC season similar to Mii costumes (but much more expensive of course).

 

[Gengar84]

They're not going to magically have resources for more newcomers, let alone obscure ones, just because the roster is bigger. If anything it should be the other way around since, you know, bringing back everyone was already a drain on resources and it's not going to magically stop just because you like the big number.

Right, I’m not saying we’re getting a 100 character roster from the start but something closer to Ultimate’s base size seems reasonable and they can expand from there with DLC. Ultimate had no cuts and brought everyone back. Those returning veterans that were missing from Smash 4 were essentially newcomers since many had to be built from the ground up. We don’t need to bring everyone single character back in order to still have a large roster.

I think some people here are way too pessimistic about the roster size. Like I said, supposing we get a much smaller roster and still no ambitious SSE style mode, what’s the draw? Not everyone cares about the online and side modes like Break the Targets have finite playability. Once you beat each one a couple of times, you rarely go back to them.

 

[Guynamednelson]

they can expand from there with DLC

But that's not good for your apparent desire for niche side characters. Pretty much every single DLC character has to be a hit, you have more room for duds when your current batch of newcomers is planned to exceed double digits.

And that's not good for my desire for first-parties due to the same reason.

 

[Gengar84]

But that's not good for your apparent desire for niche side characters. Pretty much every single DLC character has to be a hit, you have more room for duds when your current batch of newcomers is planned to exceed double digits.

And that's not good for my desire for first-parties due to the same reason.

We got plenty of smaller characters with DLC. Neither Terry nor Banjo are huge mainstream hits and others like Joker were a big surprise. Ultimate even gave us Piranha Plant. I think your point about every DLC character needing to be a hit applies to the entire roster when there only 50 or so slots to compete for.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Ultimate even gave us Piranha Plant.

Don't know if that really counts due to it allegedly being planned for base.

 

[Louie G.]

I'm also just really pessimistic on Pyra/Mythra's chances over other characters, though it may be caused by bias toward older characters.

Genuinely, what is there to be pessimistic about? They’re arguably the most popular characters from a series that has grown exponentially over the last console era, they’re used by a lot of people and they represent probably the most streamlined stance-change mechanic in the game on a fundamental level. Among a roster of popular new additions from Ultimate, assuming we’re losing a number of third parties, I feel like it would be unproductive to needlessly cut off first parties like this - and you cut a lot of guests. I think your cutting of K. Rool is unnecessary for similar reasons.

Even in the instance that Xenoblade 3 got new content I can’t see Pyra / Mythra being cut. And you aren’t even advocating for that, so frankly I find it very unrealistic that Xenoblade will scale back.

…also man, Ryu is not getting cut. We have three fighting game characters in Smash already, Ryu has been the foundation for this style of moveset design and wiping this whole slate is honestly a bit disrespectful. Not saying Kazuya and Terry need to be back too but surely at least one of them can stay.

 

[Gengar84]

Don't know if that really counts due to it allegedly being planned for base.

Base or not, it’s still a niche choice. My argument was more for a larger roster in general, which Plant’s inclusion definitely supports. We’d never see a character like that with a much smaller roster.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Base or not, it’s still a niche choice. My argument was more for a larger roster in general, which Plant’s inclusion definitely supports. We’d never see a character like that with a much smaller roster.

We only saw a character like that because base Ultimate was planned to have more newcomers than either pass. We wouldn't see a character like that if base Ultimate didn't have its fan requests and echoes to make up for it.

 

[Will]

I want Metal Cavern to come back

 

[Gengar84]

We only saw a character like that because base Ultimate was planned to have more newcomers than either pass. We wouldn't see a character like that if base Ultimate didn't have its fan requests and echoes to make up for it.

I suppose we’ll just have to agree to disagree. As Diddy said, no one really knows anything at this point so we’re just going off our gut instincts. Mine tells me that Sakurai will want to outdo himself and make something really ambitious. With backwards compatibility being a thing, I think they really want to try to avoid people seeing this game as a worse Ultimate. That doesn’t mean we’re getting Ultimate Deluxe or even a repeat of Everyone is Here but I think it does mean that the new game should be able to stand head to head with it. The roster is the one thing that most people care the most about so I don’t see them drastically cutting the size without something huge to make up for it. No idea what that could possibly be if SSE is off the table. We’ll just have to wait and see. Maybe you’re right, maybe I am. Who knows at this point?

 

[Perkilator]

If Tourney Mode comes back, I hope it has an option for 64 players again.

 

[cashregister9]

Street Smash but with the Joy-con 2 Mouse controls

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Don't know if that really counts due to it allegedly being planned for base.

I feel Plant was always planned as a bonus DLC character but made when Ultimate was half to almost done.

If it was actually planned for Ultimate's base roster then it was probably a Sonic in Brawl situation but moved to DLC.

 

[Watuna4343]

I really like to make smash rosters, so after looking at everyone's predictions for what characters would return or be cut I revised one of my possible rosters. It's 69 fighters, 6 being echoes. 57 veterans and 12 newcomers, which I have highlighted in Blue. I do think this might be a bit too generous though, I could probably do with cutting around 7 more veterans and adding a couple more newcomers.
View attachment 398081

The thing is that taking the bubble's opinions leads to off predictions. So making a roster based off of that leads to pretty much the same-old, same-new debutants and same-old same new cuts that have little reason to happen. In this line up already, the newcomers are just fan speculations and have no basis for getting in besides 'what's hot right now' and 'what the fans think/want in'. And here's the thing, some of them will happen. Waluigi and the Octoling? 100% gonna be in the next game, but generally speaking there's just a lot of things here that don't add up a lot in terms of predictions.

First of all - the Mario series. Rosalina. I genuinely, like seriously doubt Sakurai would keep Bowser Jr. over Rosalina. The only argument people bring up is that Bowser Jr. is a bigger 'face' to the series but we know that's not how Sakurai works. There are many examples of bigger characters being passed over for more interesting cases (and in the point of Mario, Toad being an especially big example), Rosalina is both far more popular and more unique compared to Junior, many predict that he stays over her, but I just don't see it happening.
The Zelda series - both Impa and the Skull kid? Why would the Skull Kid get in now when it's had other chances? Why not choose a newer character even over Impa, like from the Switch era? The Skull kid just feels very weird as a choice and is a pretty big example of 'fan speculation character'. Impa can work with how many iterations she's had, so the moveset potential is there. I still think that there other, more interesting characters we can see from Zelda but she definitely makes more sense than Skull Kid.
Pokémon - Woah, biggest objection of the series by far. Cutting Lucario and Pokemon Trainer, nevermind freaking Charizard, is so unrealistic. Lucario is the single most popular Gen 1 Pokemon, if he cuts then we cut all other non-Gen 1 Pokémon, and Charizard... Charizard is literally the one who's below Pikachu in terms of iconicness. There's a reason why Charizard alone returned for Smash 4. On the topic of Charizard, Pokemon Trainer is insanely unique as a fighter and perfectly encapsulates Pokemon. Cutting him would make no sense as long as there are no limitations. And generally speaking keeping Pokemon at 4 fighters is also very unrealistic. It's freaking Pokemon for damn's sake! Having the Mario series at 7 reps, the Zelda series at 6 and leaving Pokemon at the same number as Metroid is wild to imagine! Both Lucario and the Pokemon Trainer are getting in. (And putting a Pokemon from the latest Gen really does feel like a 'what's hot right now' case)
Fire Emblem - Why cut Ike? Probably the most popular FE lord and one that has stood the test of time better than like 90% of the characters, not to mention the variety that is lost in terms of heavy swordfighters. And why not bring back Lucina. She's just as likely to return as Daisy, with how popular she is. In fact she is the more popular Awakening rep out of all and with how easy she is to develop, I struggle to see her getting cut. And Alear debuting... the chances of that happening seem slimmer and slimmer as the days go by, also just feels like a 'fan speculation' character. The moveset potential is not enough to warrant a roster spot.
Isaac - Isaac is probably the biggest case of 'fan speculation' on the entire roster. No way he gets included now. There is fan demand for him but it's nowhere near the levels of Waluigi, Ridley and King K. Rool. And 1st party IPs have only grown since then, why should Golden Sun get a rep now, over Astral Chain, Famicom Det. Club etc.?
3rd parties - too many. You commented on wanting having kept too many characters but the 3rd parties are very prime to get axed down a lot.

 

[Gengar84]

The thing is that taking the bubble's opinions leads to off predictions. So making a roster based off of that leads to pretty much the same-old, same-new debutants and same-old same new cuts that have little reason to happen. In this line up already, the newcomers are just fan speculations and have no basis for getting in besides 'what's hot right now' and 'what the fans think/want in'. And here's the thing, some of them will happen. Waluigi and the Octoling? 100% gonna be in the next game, but generally speaking there's just a lot of things here that don't add up a lot in terms of predictions.

First of all - the Mario series. Rosalina. I genuinely, like seriously doubt Sakurai would keep Bowser Jr. over Rosalina. The only argument people bring up is that Bowser Jr. is a bigger 'face' to the series but we know that's not how Sakurai works. There are many examples of bigger characters being passed over for more interesting cases (and in the point of Mario, Toad being an especially big example), Rosalina is both far more popular and more unique compared to Junior, many predict that he stays over her, but I just don't see it happening.
The Zelda series - both Impa and the Skull kid? Why would the Skull Kid get in now when it's had other chances? Why not choose a newer character even over Impa, like from the Switch era? The Skull kid just feels very weird as a choice and is a pretty big example of 'fan speculation character'. Impa can work with how many iterations she's had, so the moveset potential is there. I still think that there other, more interesting characters we can see from Zelda but she definitely makes more sense than Skull Kid.
Pokémon - Woah, biggest objection of the series by far. Cutting Lucario and Pokemon Trainer, nevermind freaking Charizard, is so unrealistic. Lucario is the single most popular Gen 1 Pokemon, if he cuts then we cut all other non-Gen 1 Pokémon, and Charizard... Charizard is literally the one who's below Pikachu in terms of iconicness. There's a reason why Charizard alone returned for Smash 4. On the topic of Charizard, Pokemon Trainer is insanely unique as a fighter and perfectly encapsulates Pokemon. Cutting him would make no sense as long as there are no limitations. And generally speaking keeping Pokemon at 4 fighters is also very unrealistic. It's freaking Pokemon for damn's sake! Having the Mario series at 7 reps, the Zelda series at 6 and leaving Pokemon at the same number as Metroid is wild to imagine! Both Lucario and the Pokemon Trainer are getting in. (And putting a Pokemon from the latest Gen really does feel like a 'what's hot right now' case)
Fire Emblem - Why cut Ike? Probably the most popular FE lord and one that has stood the test of time better than like 90% of the characters, not to mention the variety that is lost in terms of heavy swordfighters. And why not bring back Lucina. She's just as likely to return as Daisy, with how popular she is. In fact she is the more popular Awakening rep out of all and with how easy she is to develop, I struggle to see her getting cut. And Alear debuting... the chances of that happening seem slimmer and slimmer as the days go by, also just feels like a 'fan speculation' character. The moveset potential is not enough to warrant a roster spot.
Isaac - Isaac is probably the biggest case of 'fan speculation' on the entire roster. No way he gets included now. There is fan demand for him but it's nowhere near the levels of Waluigi, Ridley and King K. Rool. And 1st party IPs have only grown since then, why should Golden Sun get a rep now, over Astral Chain, Famicom Det. Club etc.?
3rd parties - too many. You commented on wanting having kept too many characters but the 3rd parties are very prime to get axed down a lot.

Yeah, that’s why I usually aim for an even split of popular fan requests and my own personal favorites for my custom rosters. Going entirely for fan requests can make the roster feel pretty safe and boring. Going too far in the other direction with just my favorites would make the roster look completely unrealistic. I think my rosters still lean a bit more towards a wish list than a true prediction but it’s more fun that way for me.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

We got plenty of smaller characters with DLC. Neither Terry nor Banjo are huge mainstream hits and others like Joker were a big surprise. Ultimate even gave us Piranha Plant. I think your point about every DLC character needing to be a hit applies to the entire roster when there only 50 or so slots to compete for.

I'll give you Terry, but when Banjo is literally number 2 on the ballot and Persona 5 was HUMONGOUS even before Smash, I don't know that they can really fit this description. Sure their series may be smaller, but the characters themselves certainly were not lol

And Plant was probably a base game character lopped off as an early adopter bonus like how Mewtwo was distributed in 4, which is why Plant has a Palutena's Guidance unlike the rest of the DLC.

 

[Gengar84]

I'll give you Terry, but when Banjo is literally number 2 on the ballot and Persona 5 was HUMONGOUS even before Smash, I don't know that they can really fit this description. Sure their series may be smaller, but the characters themselves certainly were not lol

And Plant was probably a base game character lopped off as an early adopter bonus like how Mewtwo was distributed in 4, which is why Plant has a Palutena's Guidance unlike the rest of the DLC.

Banjo was a popular ballot request, which is why he got in, but his series is comparatively small compared to every other third party. Persona is pretty big but had little connection to Nintendo so very few were predicting Joker. It’s probably more accurate to call them surprise characters than niche.