ChronoBound
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 20, 2006
- Messages
- 8,998
Foreword: These analyses are very long, so I hid them within spoilers. The whole set of analyses together is over 7,000 words. So please only read this in its entirety when you have the time to do so.
We are now in the twilight period for speculation for Ultimate. The identity to the final newcomer for Ultimate is likely only weeks away. This character could be unveiled anywhere from at some point this month to the first week of December (to coincide with the third anniversary of Ultimate’s release).
I have been participating in online Smash roster speculation for over 20 years at this point. However, most of my interest in speculation has been gone for a long time. Since 2018 there has been a sharp downward trajectory with each subsequent year for the amount of posts I have made. In 2018, I made over 500 posts, in 2019 over 100, in 2020 just 30, and now at this point in 2021 it is still under 10. For Pass 2 in particular, I have barely been involved in speculation, and the only character support thread I have continued to make posts in was the Dixie Kong thread.
It is also important to point out that nearly all of the speculation that I have made in regards to Pass 2 has been wrong. The only one of out my initial Pass 2 speculation that ended up happening was Minecraft Steve. With Min Min, I only saw her as a contender once it was announced that the first character to Pass 1 was going to be an ARMS character and even then I saw her as one of three likely characters for that spot (with the other two being Spring Man and Twintelle). Sephiroth, Pyra & Mythra, and Kazuya were all characters I did not see coming at all.
Regardless, of this dismal track record, I still feel obligated to give my speculation in regards to whom might be the final newcomer for Ultimate.
There are a few characters comes to mind as to whom this might be.
List of third-party contenders:
Nahobino
Master Chief
Phoenix Wright
Arle
Sora
If the final character is a Nintendo character:
Splatoon Character
Waluigi
Metroid Dread Character
Promotional Pokemon
Master Hand
![]()
Shin Megami Tensei is a very long running franchise beginning technically all the way back in 1987 (though the Shin moniker was only first utilized in 1992) . However, the series (the mainline series) would not be brought over internationally until the release of Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (2003-2005). Aside, from SMTIII, all of the mainline installments to the series debuted on a Nintendo console. SMTIV was a notable major title for 3DS.
Shin Megami Tensei V was one of the first major third-party title exclusives that was announced for the Nintendo Switch, with it being announced for the console back in January 2017 with the formal unveil to the Switch. However, despite being announced so early on, the game’s development did not get until full scale development until early 2018, and did not get a full trailer until July 2020.
Shin Megami Tensei V was given a heavy push starting at Nintendo’s presentation in June 2021. Since then, there has been new videos uploaded multiple times a week showcasing the game’s various demons and parts of the game in general. The title is planned for release worldwide on November 12, 2021.
The very strong push that Shin Megami Tensei V has been receiving as well as the fact that the game will be released just as Pass 2 will likely be concluded, makes Nahobino a very strong contender for the final newcomer to Ultimate. Some will say that this thus makes Nahobino unfeasible, but keep in mind that likely at the time when Pass 2’s newcomers were decided, that SMTV was likely very far into development and Nintendo themselves might likely have a stake in making sure the game is successful.
It is important to note that there was no Shin Megami Tensei content released as part of Joker’s character pack (Persona was originally a spinoff series to Shin Megami Tensei). This is important to note considering that for Terry’s character pack there were music tracks, spirits, and Mii costumes for franchises and characters outside of the Fatal Fury/King of Fighters series (Art of Fighting, Samurai Shodown, Ikari Warriors, Psycho Soldier, and Metal Slug). It would have been very easy to include a Mii costume or spirit reference to Shin Megami Tensei as part of Joker’s challenger pack.
There is also the fact that one of the biggest motifs to the Shin Megami Tensei series is that there are usually equally antagonistic factions on the sides of order and chaos. This can be compared to Ultimate’s Adventure Mode, World of Light, where the two antagonists are malignant entities representing both light and darkness (Galleem and Dharkon). It can easily be envisioned that as a concluding trailer for Ultimate, there is a massive showdown between the entire roster of Ultimate and Galleem and Dharkon, with the latter two having the upper hand, until the scales are tipped when Nahobino makes a flashy debut.
I think overall Nahobino is the most likely character to be the final newcomer to Ultimate. There is a lot going in his favor. However, it could easily be the case where his debut title was simply not far enough in development for Sakurai and his team to implement into Ultimate.
Nintendo characters:
Of Ultimate’s DLC characters, only four (technically 5 when including Pyra and Mythra as separate characters) of the 11 DLC unveils so far have been Nintendo characters (Piranha Plant, Byleth, Min Min, and Pyra & Mythra). The odds thus of the final newcomer being a Nintendo character are thus only about 1 out of 3. Also, aside from Piranha Plant (who was likely a character that was originally intended for the base game), all of the DLC Nintendo characters that were added were characters whom made their debut on the Nintendo Switch, basically promotional characters.
As such, three of the five contenders listed for this part of my final newcomer analysis are tied to major upcoming Switch titles (Pokemon Legends: Arceus, Splatoon 3, and Metroid Dread). However, there are a few possibilities I could see happening not tied to any particular upcoming software (namely Waluigi and Master Hand).
In the eyes of many, especially with the way the Smash fanbase’s overall desires have shifted throughout this DLC period, a Nintendo character closing out Ultimate (with the possible exception of Waluigi) would be seen as a “disappointing” conclusion. Waluigi and Master Hand being the only two characters with long histories of the five analyses I will be presenting.
I personally see Nabohino, Master Chief, Phoenix Wright, and Arle as more likely than any of the Nintendo characters that I will be talking about. However, I do think these Nintendo characters do have a decent shot of closing out Ultimate.
A Few More Possibilities:
I am going to outline a few more possibilities here, since they seem to still have some notable support among Smash fans during this twilight period.
Conclusion:
There are quite a few, possibly Sakurai included, that see Smash 4 and Ultimate, as one single cycle. Keep in mind there was only a two year break between the unveils of Bayonetta and Corrin, and the unveil of Inkling. Whoever the final newcomer to Ultimate ends up being will thus be carrying a lot of weight on their shoulders in terms of expectations.
Even if the final slot ends up being a promotional sort of character, we should not forget all that has been given to us throughout this Smash cycle. For many, this promotional character could end up becoming very special to them. I can say for myself that a promotional character did end up becoming very special to me (this is Roy, for those whom are curious).
I hope that even if the final newcomer ends up being someone that most were not hoping for or expecting, that they in the end have gratitude for all that the Ultimate team has given to us. Ultimate is a culmination of the Smash series going back to 1999 to now. It ending, regardless of whom ultimately ends up being chosen, is definitely a historic event.
If I had to name only a single character that will be Ultimate’s final newcomer, I would say it would be Nahobino. The character seems to be having a lot going for him, and also has the benefits of representing a very long running franchise with a cult following behind which would thus mitigate the typical backlash that is usually associated with a promotional character addition.
My personal expectation is that the final newcomer probably will not be unveiled until the latter half of October at the earliest, and there is a possibility that he/she might not be unveiled until even December (though I think this is unlikely). There is also a possibility the character could end up being unveiled in September, but I do not feel optimistic on this.
I have barely engaged in Smash speculation for Pass 2. In general, I feel just about retired from the Smash speculation scene. Most of my predictions and speculation for Pass 2 has ended up being wrong as well. There is thus a good possibility that none of the characters that I have chosen to give analyses to end up being Ultimate’s final newcomer.
Ultimate in general has been my dream title for Smash, and it was very special to me. While there was not much added to Ultimate’s DLC that was part of my remaining personal hopes (Banjo & Kazooie being by far the biggest standout for me personally), I can say that 95% of what I wanted to see is now in Smash. Honestly, I would have been satisfied with Ultimate even if there was no DLC at all for the title.
I am someone that began participating in Smash speculation online starting in 2001. Over 20 years have passed, and much has changed since then. I have seen countless debates, character campaigns, and leaks (both legit and elaborate hoaxes) happen over the course of those 20 years. I have been having many thoughts about all of this, and in general about the two decades I have spent being involved in the online Smash community. I have been increasingly less and less involved since Ultimate’s release, and there was even a nearly three year stretch (from June 2015 to April 2018) where I was basically gone from the Smash community.
Ultimate fulfilled many long running dreams I had for Smash going back for over a decade. As I get older, my free time depreciates more and more, and also subsequently becomes increasingly valuable to me. Dixie Kong is a character that I very much want to see added to Smash’s roster, and do think it is peculiar why she is not part of a roster with nearly 90 playable characters, but I do not feel the drive to continue supporting her past Ultimate.
In general, Ultimate feels like my own personal capstone for Smash. For many others it does not, but for me, even small touches like Pico having a role in World of Light meant much to me. Sakurai has said this earlier this year that everything must come to an end eventually, and while I do think he will most likely come back to direct Smash’s next installment, I feel for myself that I want to bow out of roster speculation and character support.
Smash has been a major part of my life ever since I first learned about the existence of Smash 64 on a Metroid fansite back in December 1998 or January 1999. Most of my online participation has been in regards to Smash speculation and character support.
This is most likely the last speculation post I will be making for Ultimate, and most likely the penultimate post that I will be making for Smash speculation in general. I might make a post outlining some general ideas on what direction I think Smash might take with its roster after the final newcomer for Ultimate has been unveiled.
Thank you very much for your time in reading what I had to say. The Ultimate speculation epoch in general has been a very long one. The first newcomer was shown in March 2018, and the final newcomer has yet to be unveiled. By comparison, the second longest running epoch (Smash 4’s), had its first newcomer unveiled in June 2013, and its final newcomers unveiled in December 2015, which ended up being 2.5 years. Ultimate has surpassed this by over a year.
It was bittersweet getting this post finally completed. I know very few are interested in what I have to say these days, but it was kind of nostalgic having to write such an extensive analysis again. I hope those that have taken the time to read my thoughts and speculation have gotten some sort of insight from it, or found it at least a bit entertaining or interesting.
This may be the last post I make in regards to Ultimate speculation, but I still have a few more writing projects that I do plan to get out during the remaining months of this year. One is my Donkey Kong series essay that I mentioned back during June. I plan to get that posted at some point in September. I also want to post a revised version of my Dixie Kong essay. I plan to have that posted either in September or October.
Aside from those two, I also want to make another significant work as a sort of retrospective in regards to Ultimate and my time as a Smash speculator in general. I have no idea when I will actually end up finishing this though. It could be anywhere from November to January. My goal is to have it finished soon after the final newcomer and DLC in general for Ultimate is released. I really want to make it both ultimate and special.
I am very glad to finally have this speculation in regards to the final newcomer finally done. It took me far longer to complete than I had expected. Again, I am grateful to anyone that took the time to read this analysis in its entirety. Thank you very much for your time and patience. I am very glad it is finally complete, and at this point I just want to see just how Ultimate concludes. I hope that this final newcomer and DLC wave in general ends up satisfying as many fans as possible. I hope the possibilities I outlined helped give some perspective as to who it could possibly end up being. This now brings my final speculation post for Ultimate to a close. Thank you.
We are now in the twilight period for speculation for Ultimate. The identity to the final newcomer for Ultimate is likely only weeks away. This character could be unveiled anywhere from at some point this month to the first week of December (to coincide with the third anniversary of Ultimate’s release).
I have been participating in online Smash roster speculation for over 20 years at this point. However, most of my interest in speculation has been gone for a long time. Since 2018 there has been a sharp downward trajectory with each subsequent year for the amount of posts I have made. In 2018, I made over 500 posts, in 2019 over 100, in 2020 just 30, and now at this point in 2021 it is still under 10. For Pass 2 in particular, I have barely been involved in speculation, and the only character support thread I have continued to make posts in was the Dixie Kong thread.
It is also important to point out that nearly all of the speculation that I have made in regards to Pass 2 has been wrong. The only one of out my initial Pass 2 speculation that ended up happening was Minecraft Steve. With Min Min, I only saw her as a contender once it was announced that the first character to Pass 1 was going to be an ARMS character and even then I saw her as one of three likely characters for that spot (with the other two being Spring Man and Twintelle). Sephiroth, Pyra & Mythra, and Kazuya were all characters I did not see coming at all.
Regardless, of this dismal track record, I still feel obligated to give my speculation in regards to whom might be the final newcomer for Ultimate.
There are a few characters comes to mind as to whom this might be.
List of third-party contenders:
Nahobino
Master Chief
Phoenix Wright
Arle
Sora
If the final character is a Nintendo character:
Splatoon Character
Waluigi
Metroid Dread Character
Promotional Pokemon
Master Hand
Nahobino:
Shin Megami Tensei is a very long running franchise beginning technically all the way back in 1987 (though the Shin moniker was only first utilized in 1992) . However, the series (the mainline series) would not be brought over internationally until the release of Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (2003-2005). Aside, from SMTIII, all of the mainline installments to the series debuted on a Nintendo console. SMTIV was a notable major title for 3DS.
Shin Megami Tensei V was one of the first major third-party title exclusives that was announced for the Nintendo Switch, with it being announced for the console back in January 2017 with the formal unveil to the Switch. However, despite being announced so early on, the game’s development did not get until full scale development until early 2018, and did not get a full trailer until July 2020.
Shin Megami Tensei V was given a heavy push starting at Nintendo’s presentation in June 2021. Since then, there has been new videos uploaded multiple times a week showcasing the game’s various demons and parts of the game in general. The title is planned for release worldwide on November 12, 2021.
The very strong push that Shin Megami Tensei V has been receiving as well as the fact that the game will be released just as Pass 2 will likely be concluded, makes Nahobino a very strong contender for the final newcomer to Ultimate. Some will say that this thus makes Nahobino unfeasible, but keep in mind that likely at the time when Pass 2’s newcomers were decided, that SMTV was likely very far into development and Nintendo themselves might likely have a stake in making sure the game is successful.
It is important to note that there was no Shin Megami Tensei content released as part of Joker’s character pack (Persona was originally a spinoff series to Shin Megami Tensei). This is important to note considering that for Terry’s character pack there were music tracks, spirits, and Mii costumes for franchises and characters outside of the Fatal Fury/King of Fighters series (Art of Fighting, Samurai Shodown, Ikari Warriors, Psycho Soldier, and Metal Slug). It would have been very easy to include a Mii costume or spirit reference to Shin Megami Tensei as part of Joker’s challenger pack.
There is also the fact that one of the biggest motifs to the Shin Megami Tensei series is that there are usually equally antagonistic factions on the sides of order and chaos. This can be compared to Ultimate’s Adventure Mode, World of Light, where the two antagonists are malignant entities representing both light and darkness (Galleem and Dharkon). It can easily be envisioned that as a concluding trailer for Ultimate, there is a massive showdown between the entire roster of Ultimate and Galleem and Dharkon, with the latter two having the upper hand, until the scales are tipped when Nahobino makes a flashy debut.
I think overall Nahobino is the most likely character to be the final newcomer to Ultimate. There is a lot going in his favor. However, it could easily be the case where his debut title was simply not far enough in development for Sakurai and his team to implement into Ultimate.
Master Chief:
![]()
There are two Microsoft owned characters that are a part of Ultimate’s roster, Banjo & Kazooie and Steve/Alex. Both of these characters were added to Ultimate during Pass 1 and Pass 2 respectively. Since then, many have thought Master Chief to be a strong contender for the latter half of Pass 2.
Technically, the Halo series has yet to debut on a Nintendo console. However, there have been long running rumors that the Master Chief Collection is going to be ported to the Nintendo Switch. A Master Chief official skin has been released for ports of Minecraft on Nintendo consoles though. It is important to note that Cloud was made a part of Smash 4’s roster before Final Fantasy VII had been released on any Nintendo console.
Master Chief in the eyes of many would be a top tier capstone to the long Smash cycle that began back with the unveils that began back in June 2013. There is already a very obvious splash screen tagline for the character, “Master Chief Finishes the Fight.” For those who unaware, “finish the fight” was the main advertisement slogan for Halo 3.
There have been some rumors of a Xbox and Nintendo cross promotion being announced in the Fall. What that entails could be anywhere from a Xbox Game Pass on the Nintendo Switch, to a Master Chief Collection port on the Switch, to even simply Master Chief as the last newcomer in Ultimate. Such an announcement can be anywhere from this month (September) to at any point in November though (assuming it is even true).
Regardless, Master Chief is a character that looms large over the twilight period of Ultimate’s speculation. Aside from Nahobino, Master Chief is a character that also seems like a natural fit to conclude Ultimate. However, it is also quite likely that Master Chief might not be in Ultimate in any form (fighter, spirit, or Mii costume). I do think Master Chief has a promising future as a popular Smash request assuming a Halo installments do find their way on a Nintendo console.
Technically, the Halo series has yet to debut on a Nintendo console. However, there have been long running rumors that the Master Chief Collection is going to be ported to the Nintendo Switch. A Master Chief official skin has been released for ports of Minecraft on Nintendo consoles though. It is important to note that Cloud was made a part of Smash 4’s roster before Final Fantasy VII had been released on any Nintendo console.
Master Chief in the eyes of many would be a top tier capstone to the long Smash cycle that began back with the unveils that began back in June 2013. There is already a very obvious splash screen tagline for the character, “Master Chief Finishes the Fight.” For those who unaware, “finish the fight” was the main advertisement slogan for Halo 3.
There have been some rumors of a Xbox and Nintendo cross promotion being announced in the Fall. What that entails could be anywhere from a Xbox Game Pass on the Nintendo Switch, to a Master Chief Collection port on the Switch, to even simply Master Chief as the last newcomer in Ultimate. Such an announcement can be anywhere from this month (September) to at any point in November though (assuming it is even true).
Regardless, Master Chief is a character that looms large over the twilight period of Ultimate’s speculation. Aside from Nahobino, Master Chief is a character that also seems like a natural fit to conclude Ultimate. However, it is also quite likely that Master Chief might not be in Ultimate in any form (fighter, spirit, or Mii costume). I do think Master Chief has a promising future as a popular Smash request assuming a Halo installments do find their way on a Nintendo console.
Phoenix Wright:
![]()
At the beginning of Ultimate’s DLC period, most speculators believed that a Capcom newcomer was likely to happen. This continued into Pass 2. However, doubt has started ever since the Mii costume confirmations for Monster Hunter and Arthur. Dante has similarly been confirmed as a Mii costume during the latest Mii costume wave. Resident Evil had a spirit event as well. This pretty much just leaves Ace Attorney as the only major active Capcom franchise without any sort of content in Ultimate.
Ace Attorney will also be turning 20 years old later this year (in October), possibly around the time the final newcomer will finally be unveiled. There was also a port of the two Great Ace Attorney titles for the Switch earlier this year, and there was no spirit event to promote it like many other third-party Switch titles. In general it is quite peculiar, how Resident Evil, Monster Hunter, Devil May Cry, and even Ghosts n’ Goblins received content over Ultimate’s DLC period, while Ace Attorney has yet to do so.
It is made even more peculiar given that Phoenix Wright has been a highly requested character even going back to the Smash ballot period. Phoenix Wright and the Ace Attorney series in general has a lot of popularity among the Nintendo fanbase subset. Every game in the series first released on a Nintendo console, which is a rarity for non-Nintendo game franchises in general.
Phoenix Wright was also a fighter in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3, which is proof that the character could indeed work as a fighter despite the character doing most of his fighting with words as opposed to actions.
Overall, I do think there is a good chance that there will be some sort of Ace Attorney content as part of the remaining DLC content for Ultimate, even if Ace Attorney is not the focus to the final challenger pack. A simple Phoenix Wright Mii wig and a few spirits commemorating the 20th anniversary to the series could easily be done. Regardless, Phoenix Wright is among the front runners for the final newcomer to Ultimate.
Ace Attorney will also be turning 20 years old later this year (in October), possibly around the time the final newcomer will finally be unveiled. There was also a port of the two Great Ace Attorney titles for the Switch earlier this year, and there was no spirit event to promote it like many other third-party Switch titles. In general it is quite peculiar, how Resident Evil, Monster Hunter, Devil May Cry, and even Ghosts n’ Goblins received content over Ultimate’s DLC period, while Ace Attorney has yet to do so.
It is made even more peculiar given that Phoenix Wright has been a highly requested character even going back to the Smash ballot period. Phoenix Wright and the Ace Attorney series in general has a lot of popularity among the Nintendo fanbase subset. Every game in the series first released on a Nintendo console, which is a rarity for non-Nintendo game franchises in general.
Phoenix Wright was also a fighter in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3, which is proof that the character could indeed work as a fighter despite the character doing most of his fighting with words as opposed to actions.
Overall, I do think there is a good chance that there will be some sort of Ace Attorney content as part of the remaining DLC content for Ultimate, even if Ace Attorney is not the focus to the final challenger pack. A simple Phoenix Wright Mii wig and a few spirits commemorating the 20th anniversary to the series could easily be done. Regardless, Phoenix Wright is among the front runners for the final newcomer to Ultimate.
Arle:
![]()
Puyo Puyo is yet another franchise that will be having a major anniversary milestone later this year. For Puyo Puyo, it will be turning 30 years old in October. Puyo Puyo is probably the most popular and influential puzzle game franchise outside of Tetris.
Puyo Puyo right now has no content in Ultimate despite there having been opportunities for a spirit event to occur (Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 was released last year). The only two traditional Sega franchises with content in Ultimate so far are Sonic and Virtua Fighter.
Arle has quite a bit of demand among the Japanese Smash audience, and the Puyo Puyo franchise is considered historic over there as well. It is also important to note that the Super Famicom port of Puyo Puyo 2 is a part of the SNES catalog for the Switch Online even outside Japan.
It is peculiar why there has yet to be any Puyo Puyo content in Ultimate, and I would not be surprised if there happens to be a Mii costume of Arle as part of the final Mii costume wave. Regardless of whether that happens or not, Puyo Puyo might be the most notable Sega owned franchise without any content yet in Ultimate, especially in regards to puzzle franchises in general.
Arle’s competition though is very high, and to some fans outside Japan, she would be seen as a “disappointing conclusion”. Regardless, I do think it is peculiar why Puyo Puyo has yet to have any sort of content in Ultimate, and I would not be surprised to see a Mii costume in the end.
Puyo Puyo right now has no content in Ultimate despite there having been opportunities for a spirit event to occur (Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 was released last year). The only two traditional Sega franchises with content in Ultimate so far are Sonic and Virtua Fighter.
Arle has quite a bit of demand among the Japanese Smash audience, and the Puyo Puyo franchise is considered historic over there as well. It is also important to note that the Super Famicom port of Puyo Puyo 2 is a part of the SNES catalog for the Switch Online even outside Japan.
It is peculiar why there has yet to be any Puyo Puyo content in Ultimate, and I would not be surprised if there happens to be a Mii costume of Arle as part of the final Mii costume wave. Regardless of whether that happens or not, Puyo Puyo might be the most notable Sega owned franchise without any content yet in Ultimate, especially in regards to puzzle franchises in general.
Arle’s competition though is very high, and to some fans outside Japan, she would be seen as a “disappointing conclusion”. Regardless, I do think it is peculiar why Puyo Puyo has yet to have any sort of content in Ultimate, and I would not be surprised to see a Mii costume in the end.
Sora:
![]()
Aside from Master Chief, Sora is perhaps the one character that comes to many Smash fans’ minds as a climatic conclusion to Ultimate. Sora, also unlike Master Chief, has strong popularity outside of the West. However, Sora’s inclusion is complicated by the fact that the character himself (and most of the Kingdom Hearts franchise outside of the Final Fantasy characters) is owned by Disney. There is also the fact that Disney characters such as Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, and Goofy are among the most important to the franchise.
Sakurai during Ultimate’s DLC period has expressed skepticism about non-gaming characters ever appearing in Smash Bros., which perhaps is a confirmation in a way that Sora and his franchise will not be in Ultimate.
Kingdom Hearts is a franchise that is overall about crossovers and characters from various worlds interacting with one another, which makes many believe that Sora would be the perfect character to conclude Ultimate. However, there is wide speculation and rumors that Nintendo has attempted to get Sora and Kingdom Hearts into Smash Bros., but Disney themselves simply asked for too much in exchange for this, and thus no deal was ever solidified.
Overall, Sora is probably the least likely of the five strong contenders I listed in the third-party section to this final analysis. Sora could very well be the biggest potential name they could add in for the final newcomer (especially when factoring in reception outside of the Western audience), however, he has other things that strongly hamper him, or at least in regards to making it in for Ultimate.
Aside from Master Chief, Sora is perhaps the one character that comes to many Smash fans’ minds as a climatic conclusion to Ultimate. Sora, also unlike Master Chief, has strong popularity outside of the West. However, Sora’s inclusion is complicated by the fact that the character himself (and most of the Kingdom Hearts franchise outside of the Final Fantasy characters) is owned by Disney. There is also the fact that Disney characters such as Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, and Goofy are among the most important to the franchise.
Sakurai during Ultimate’s DLC period has expressed skepticism about non-gaming characters ever appearing in Smash Bros., which perhaps is a confirmation in a way that Sora and his franchise will not be in Ultimate.
Kingdom Hearts is a franchise that is overall about crossovers and characters from various worlds interacting with one another, which makes many believe that Sora would be the perfect character to conclude Ultimate. However, there is wide speculation and rumors that Nintendo has attempted to get Sora and Kingdom Hearts into Smash Bros., but Disney themselves simply asked for too much in exchange for this, and thus no deal was ever solidified.
Overall, Sora is probably the least likely of the five strong contenders I listed in the third-party section to this final analysis. Sora could very well be the biggest potential name they could add in for the final newcomer (especially when factoring in reception outside of the Western audience), however, he has other things that strongly hamper him, or at least in regards to making it in for Ultimate.
Nintendo characters:
Of Ultimate’s DLC characters, only four (technically 5 when including Pyra and Mythra as separate characters) of the 11 DLC unveils so far have been Nintendo characters (Piranha Plant, Byleth, Min Min, and Pyra & Mythra). The odds thus of the final newcomer being a Nintendo character are thus only about 1 out of 3. Also, aside from Piranha Plant (who was likely a character that was originally intended for the base game), all of the DLC Nintendo characters that were added were characters whom made their debut on the Nintendo Switch, basically promotional characters.
As such, three of the five contenders listed for this part of my final newcomer analysis are tied to major upcoming Switch titles (Pokemon Legends: Arceus, Splatoon 3, and Metroid Dread). However, there are a few possibilities I could see happening not tied to any particular upcoming software (namely Waluigi and Master Hand).
In the eyes of many, especially with the way the Smash fanbase’s overall desires have shifted throughout this DLC period, a Nintendo character closing out Ultimate (with the possible exception of Waluigi) would be seen as a “disappointing” conclusion. Waluigi and Master Hand being the only two characters with long histories of the five analyses I will be presenting.
I personally see Nabohino, Master Chief, Phoenix Wright, and Arle as more likely than any of the Nintendo characters that I will be talking about. However, I do think these Nintendo characters do have a decent shot of closing out Ultimate.
Splatoon Character:
![]()
Splatoon has become Nintendo’s most successful franchise that was created during the 2010’s. It was the Inkling that was the first newcomer that was unveiled for Ultimate, all the way back in March 2018. However, with a third installment scheduled for release in 2022, many feel that the franchise is now overdue for a second playable character.
The Octoling was perceived by many to be among the most likely characters to be an echo newcomer for Ultimate’s base game. There has been some Splatoon content that was made as DLC for Ultimate which were the Mii costumes of Callie and Marie. For some, this was seen as a sign that there would not be a character pack revolving around a Splatoon character. However, as can be seen with the release of the Heihachi Mii costume a year before Kazuya’s character pack, there could still be a decent chance that a Splatoon character could happen as DLC.
While the conventional belief is that the Octoling is very likely a future echo fighter, the character could also be implemented as a fully unique character due to all the weapons that Splatoon 2 (and likely Splatoon 3) introduced. The diversity of Splatoon’s catalog of weapons means that there of plenty of things that the Octoling could be given to make him/her standout from the Inkling. There is also the sense that putting in the Octoling as the final newcomer to Ultimate would be a way of Ultimate going full circle considering that its first unveiled newcomer was the Inkling.
It is also worth noting that Octo Expansion, a massive DLC pack added to Splatoon 2 in 2018, has very little content in Ultimate. That very little content being merely two spirits (a spirt of both the Octoling girl and Octoling boy and a spirit of the Octoling’s octopus form).
There might also be other alternatives to a Splatoon newcomer aside from the Octoling. One idea would be a tag team possibly utilizing one of the diva pairs (Callie and Marie or Marina and Pearl) as the basis for a tag team fighter. Another possibility could simply be utilizing a character will be debuting in Splatoon 3.
Overall, there is a strong possibility that if Ultimate does close out with a Nintendo character there is a good chance that it ends up being a Splatoon character. Splatoon 3 is set to be one of the biggest titles for the Switch in 2022, and Inkling being the first newcomer that was shown for Ultimate in general, are the two factors going for a Splatoon newcomer.
The Octoling was perceived by many to be among the most likely characters to be an echo newcomer for Ultimate’s base game. There has been some Splatoon content that was made as DLC for Ultimate which were the Mii costumes of Callie and Marie. For some, this was seen as a sign that there would not be a character pack revolving around a Splatoon character. However, as can be seen with the release of the Heihachi Mii costume a year before Kazuya’s character pack, there could still be a decent chance that a Splatoon character could happen as DLC.
While the conventional belief is that the Octoling is very likely a future echo fighter, the character could also be implemented as a fully unique character due to all the weapons that Splatoon 2 (and likely Splatoon 3) introduced. The diversity of Splatoon’s catalog of weapons means that there of plenty of things that the Octoling could be given to make him/her standout from the Inkling. There is also the sense that putting in the Octoling as the final newcomer to Ultimate would be a way of Ultimate going full circle considering that its first unveiled newcomer was the Inkling.
It is also worth noting that Octo Expansion, a massive DLC pack added to Splatoon 2 in 2018, has very little content in Ultimate. That very little content being merely two spirits (a spirt of both the Octoling girl and Octoling boy and a spirit of the Octoling’s octopus form).
There might also be other alternatives to a Splatoon newcomer aside from the Octoling. One idea would be a tag team possibly utilizing one of the diva pairs (Callie and Marie or Marina and Pearl) as the basis for a tag team fighter. Another possibility could simply be utilizing a character will be debuting in Splatoon 3.
Overall, there is a strong possibility that if Ultimate does close out with a Nintendo character there is a good chance that it ends up being a Splatoon character. Splatoon 3 is set to be one of the biggest titles for the Switch in 2022, and Inkling being the first newcomer that was shown for Ultimate in general, are the two factors going for a Splatoon newcomer.
Waluigi:
![]()
Waluigi is a mainstay in the Mario spinoffs (the Kart titles, the Golf and Tennis titles, the Party titles, etc.). Waluigi is a character that has been around for a very long time at this point (he made his debut in 2000 with Mario Tennis on the Nintendo 64). Peculiarly, the character has yet to crossover into a mainline title in either the Super Mario franchise or the WarioWare or Wario Land series.
Waluigi over the course of the 2010’s has gradually snowballed into becoming not just the most wanted Mario newcomer, but among the most wanted newcomers in general. This all culminated into an infamous outcry in 2018 when the character was confirmed to reprise his Assist Trophy role again in Ultimate.
Reggie Fils-Aime went on the record as saying that Ultimate’s team was made aware of this outcry, so now going forward there is an awareness of Waluigi now having a massive following among Smash fans in the West at least. As such, it is quite possible that Waluigi could very well be the character that closes out Ultimate. There is technically a Mario Party title (Mario Party Superstars) that will be releasing around the end of October to which Waluigi could be utilized to promote (and might even be the basis for an entire challenger pack).
Waluigi might be among the very few Nintendo characters that could be selected that would not be met with a mixed or negative reception if indeed selected to be the last newcomer for Ultimate. Waluigi’s two primary problems going against him though is that he already has a major role within Ultimate (as an Assist Trophy) and that he might not be able to drive an entire character pack due to the Mario series already having significant content in Ultimate (though I have mentioned that Mario Party Superstars could be a possible title to use).
However, even if Waluigi is not the final newcomer for Ultimate, the character has among the brightest prospects going forward to the next Smash installment, likely being among the first newcomers confirmed for the next Smash title. Overall, Waluigi is among the few Nintendo characters I feel could be selected to close out Ultimate due to demand for the character being known to the development team, as well as being one of the few characters that Nintendo actually owns that could still be well received as the final newcomer for Ultimate.
Waluigi over the course of the 2010’s has gradually snowballed into becoming not just the most wanted Mario newcomer, but among the most wanted newcomers in general. This all culminated into an infamous outcry in 2018 when the character was confirmed to reprise his Assist Trophy role again in Ultimate.
Reggie Fils-Aime went on the record as saying that Ultimate’s team was made aware of this outcry, so now going forward there is an awareness of Waluigi now having a massive following among Smash fans in the West at least. As such, it is quite possible that Waluigi could very well be the character that closes out Ultimate. There is technically a Mario Party title (Mario Party Superstars) that will be releasing around the end of October to which Waluigi could be utilized to promote (and might even be the basis for an entire challenger pack).
Waluigi might be among the very few Nintendo characters that could be selected that would not be met with a mixed or negative reception if indeed selected to be the last newcomer for Ultimate. Waluigi’s two primary problems going against him though is that he already has a major role within Ultimate (as an Assist Trophy) and that he might not be able to drive an entire character pack due to the Mario series already having significant content in Ultimate (though I have mentioned that Mario Party Superstars could be a possible title to use).
However, even if Waluigi is not the final newcomer for Ultimate, the character has among the brightest prospects going forward to the next Smash installment, likely being among the first newcomers confirmed for the next Smash title. Overall, Waluigi is among the few Nintendo characters I feel could be selected to close out Ultimate due to demand for the character being known to the development team, as well as being one of the few characters that Nintendo actually owns that could still be well received as the final newcomer for Ultimate.
Metroid Dread Character:
![]()
![]()
Metroid Dread is a title that has been over 15 years in the making. Metroid Dread finally re-emerged in June 2018, and has ended up being the most anticipated Switch title for the second half of 2021. Metroid was unexpectedly blessed with not just one but two newcomers during Ultimate’s base game (Ridley and Dark Samus). I consider both of these character inclusions to be some of the most miraculous character inclusions for Ultimate in general, which honestly says a lot considering how many miraculous inclusions Ultimate has had over the course of its life.
With Metroid having four playable characters in Ultimate, most believe that a fifth character is very unlikely to happen. This same mentality actually can be compared to why many speculators back during Smash 4’s release believed Roy was unlikely to be a part of Smash 4’s DLC (there were four Fire Emblem characters as part of Smash 4’s base roster). It ended up being the case that not only that Roy did end up returning, but also that an entirely new Fire Emblem character was added in as well (Corrin).
As such, given the profile that Metroid Dread has, especially among the Western audience, there is a possibility that there could be a character chosen from this title that is utilized as Ultimate’s final newcomer. Metroid Dread also has a particular gravity surrounding it. One is that it is being declared as an end to Metroid’s traditional story (Samus and her connection with the Metroids), and secondly, the title is being used as the flagship to launch alongside the Nintendo Switch OLED model.
For an actual character choice, there seems to be two that might work. One is the E.M.M.I, the series of stalker robots featured on Metroid Dread’s boxart, and will even be getting their own amiibo when the title launches. The robots are one of the main antagonists to Metroid Dread, and a major part to the title’s marketing.
The other possibility for a newcomer for Metroid Dread is the mysterious warrior Chozo featured in a recent trailer. Very little details are known about this particular character at the time that this analysis was being written, but the character was shown attacking Samus and easily overwhelming her. This character could easily utilize Samus’s model as a base, and then be made into a completely different fighter from there.
My personal opinion is that the final newcomer most likely will not be from Metroid Dread. Metroid in general is not really seen as a top tier or high priority franchise from Nintendo, or least in comparison to many other Nintendo franchises these days. Metroid Dread does seem to be getting a bigger push than Samus Returns did though. Another factor going against a Metroid newcomer is that the franchise has a very marginal following among Japanese audiences, with the last installment that sold over 150K being Metroid Fusion, which was nearly 20 years ago.
Even if Metroid Dread does not end up being the focus to the final challenger pack for Ultimate, I do expect that there will be a promotional spirit event for Metroid Dread. This spirit event will likely be one of the final new spirit events for Ultimate, and possibly even the final one. Overall, I do think there is a decent possibility that if the final newcomer for Ultimate is a Nintendo character, that this character will be someone from Metroid Dread. I do expect Metroid Dread spirits to happen for Ultimate, regardless of who the final newcomer ends up being.
With Metroid having four playable characters in Ultimate, most believe that a fifth character is very unlikely to happen. This same mentality actually can be compared to why many speculators back during Smash 4’s release believed Roy was unlikely to be a part of Smash 4’s DLC (there were four Fire Emblem characters as part of Smash 4’s base roster). It ended up being the case that not only that Roy did end up returning, but also that an entirely new Fire Emblem character was added in as well (Corrin).
As such, given the profile that Metroid Dread has, especially among the Western audience, there is a possibility that there could be a character chosen from this title that is utilized as Ultimate’s final newcomer. Metroid Dread also has a particular gravity surrounding it. One is that it is being declared as an end to Metroid’s traditional story (Samus and her connection with the Metroids), and secondly, the title is being used as the flagship to launch alongside the Nintendo Switch OLED model.
For an actual character choice, there seems to be two that might work. One is the E.M.M.I, the series of stalker robots featured on Metroid Dread’s boxart, and will even be getting their own amiibo when the title launches. The robots are one of the main antagonists to Metroid Dread, and a major part to the title’s marketing.
The other possibility for a newcomer for Metroid Dread is the mysterious warrior Chozo featured in a recent trailer. Very little details are known about this particular character at the time that this analysis was being written, but the character was shown attacking Samus and easily overwhelming her. This character could easily utilize Samus’s model as a base, and then be made into a completely different fighter from there.
My personal opinion is that the final newcomer most likely will not be from Metroid Dread. Metroid in general is not really seen as a top tier or high priority franchise from Nintendo, or least in comparison to many other Nintendo franchises these days. Metroid Dread does seem to be getting a bigger push than Samus Returns did though. Another factor going against a Metroid newcomer is that the franchise has a very marginal following among Japanese audiences, with the last installment that sold over 150K being Metroid Fusion, which was nearly 20 years ago.
Even if Metroid Dread does not end up being the focus to the final challenger pack for Ultimate, I do expect that there will be a promotional spirit event for Metroid Dread. This spirit event will likely be one of the final new spirit events for Ultimate, and possibly even the final one. Overall, I do think there is a decent possibility that if the final newcomer for Ultimate is a Nintendo character, that this character will be someone from Metroid Dread. I do expect Metroid Dread spirits to happen for Ultimate, regardless of who the final newcomer ends up being.
Promotional Pokemon:
![]()
![]()
Aside from Fire Emblem, Pokemon is the other franchise to which routinely receives promotional playable character picks for Smash Bros. Pokemon has only received one newcomer in Ultimate, Incineroar. Incineroar was also the final newcomer that was unveiled for Ultimate’s base game. It is important noting that Pokemon did not receive any brand new stages for Ultimate (though it does have seven stages overall, the third highest amount of any series in Ultimate).
Pokemon Sword/Shield did end up having a spirit event that had four spirits for (with two of those spirits featuring multiple Pokemon). These spirits were the starters Grookey, Scorbunny, and Sobble (which all share a single spirit), the legendaries Zacian and Zamazenta (which also share a single spirit), Corviknight, and Morpeko. This spirit event was pretty close to Sword/Shield’s launch in late 2019.
Many major Switch titles like The Legend of Zelda The Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, Fire Emblem Three Houses, ARMS, and Xenoblade 2 all have significant content already in Ultimate, with the latter three having a large amount of their content added in during the DLC phase to Ultimate. Pokemon Sword/Shield is unusual in that its only content is though four spirits, and especially so given that Pokemon is usually a top priority for “advertisement slots”.
However, at this point, Pokemon Sword/Shield has become old news. There is a major new Pokemon title scheduled for release in January 2022, Pokemon Legends: Arceus. As such, it could be the case that any promotional Pokemon that is selected has Pokemon Legends: Arceus as the basis for its challenger pack, not Pokemon Sword/Shield.
I imagine that the final newcomer for Ultimate will be released either at some point in November or early December, one or two months before the release of Pokemon Legends. Like with other possible promotional characters, the timing would certainly be tight. As to what Pokemon actually ends up being select to promote this title, I personally have little idea.
If there is a Pokemon selected to represent Sword/Shield though, my estimate though is that it would be one of the final evolutions for one of the starters (Cinderace, Rillaboom, or Inteleon). Aside from this, I have little idea what Pokemon could be utilized for Pokemon Legends. My guess is a final evolution for one of the starters in that title. These Pokemon would be Decidueye (whom almost got selected over Incineroar), Typhlosian, and Samurott. Of these three, Decidueye seems to be the most popular and the one that seems to lend itself the most to being a Smash fighter.
It would be pretty remarkable if Decidueye were to end up getting in considering that most considered the character’s prospects finished when Incineroar was confirmed. Regardless of which Pokemon were to end up being selected to close out Ultimate though, I think the character would be met with a mixed reception at best. There is a long running “joke” that Cinderace is the most obvious choice for a “disappointing end” to Ultimate. It could be the case that any Pokemon that ends up being selected to close out Ultimate, ends up being this title’s Corrin (a promotional character that was met with a mixed to negative reception due to an array of particular circumstances).
Regardless, Smash fans and speculators should realize that a promotional Pokemon closing out Ultimate is a plausible possibility. If a the final slot to Ultimate is not a promotional Pokemon, there is a possibility that Pokemon Legends ends up having a spirit event. However, considering it is likely that there will not be any new content for Ultimate whatsoever after December 2021, that the title will be releasing after the final newcomer has been released, there might not even be a spirit event.
Overall, a promotional Pokemon has strong prospects if the final newcomer is going to end up being a Nintendo character. It would be interesting to see who would end up being selected if this were to end up being the case. I think though most likely that this will not happen. However, there might be some sort of promotional Pokemon Legends content released either as part of the final newcomer wave or as the final DLC spirit event for Ultimate.
Pokemon Sword/Shield did end up having a spirit event that had four spirits for (with two of those spirits featuring multiple Pokemon). These spirits were the starters Grookey, Scorbunny, and Sobble (which all share a single spirit), the legendaries Zacian and Zamazenta (which also share a single spirit), Corviknight, and Morpeko. This spirit event was pretty close to Sword/Shield’s launch in late 2019.
Many major Switch titles like The Legend of Zelda The Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, Fire Emblem Three Houses, ARMS, and Xenoblade 2 all have significant content already in Ultimate, with the latter three having a large amount of their content added in during the DLC phase to Ultimate. Pokemon Sword/Shield is unusual in that its only content is though four spirits, and especially so given that Pokemon is usually a top priority for “advertisement slots”.
However, at this point, Pokemon Sword/Shield has become old news. There is a major new Pokemon title scheduled for release in January 2022, Pokemon Legends: Arceus. As such, it could be the case that any promotional Pokemon that is selected has Pokemon Legends: Arceus as the basis for its challenger pack, not Pokemon Sword/Shield.
I imagine that the final newcomer for Ultimate will be released either at some point in November or early December, one or two months before the release of Pokemon Legends. Like with other possible promotional characters, the timing would certainly be tight. As to what Pokemon actually ends up being select to promote this title, I personally have little idea.
If there is a Pokemon selected to represent Sword/Shield though, my estimate though is that it would be one of the final evolutions for one of the starters (Cinderace, Rillaboom, or Inteleon). Aside from this, I have little idea what Pokemon could be utilized for Pokemon Legends. My guess is a final evolution for one of the starters in that title. These Pokemon would be Decidueye (whom almost got selected over Incineroar), Typhlosian, and Samurott. Of these three, Decidueye seems to be the most popular and the one that seems to lend itself the most to being a Smash fighter.
It would be pretty remarkable if Decidueye were to end up getting in considering that most considered the character’s prospects finished when Incineroar was confirmed. Regardless of which Pokemon were to end up being selected to close out Ultimate though, I think the character would be met with a mixed reception at best. There is a long running “joke” that Cinderace is the most obvious choice for a “disappointing end” to Ultimate. It could be the case that any Pokemon that ends up being selected to close out Ultimate, ends up being this title’s Corrin (a promotional character that was met with a mixed to negative reception due to an array of particular circumstances).
Regardless, Smash fans and speculators should realize that a promotional Pokemon closing out Ultimate is a plausible possibility. If a the final slot to Ultimate is not a promotional Pokemon, there is a possibility that Pokemon Legends ends up having a spirit event. However, considering it is likely that there will not be any new content for Ultimate whatsoever after December 2021, that the title will be releasing after the final newcomer has been released, there might not even be a spirit event.
Overall, a promotional Pokemon has strong prospects if the final newcomer is going to end up being a Nintendo character. It would be interesting to see who would end up being selected if this were to end up being the case. I think though most likely that this will not happen. However, there might be some sort of promotional Pokemon Legends content released either as part of the final newcomer wave or as the final DLC spirit event for Ultimate.
Master Hand:
![]()
Master Hand has been a major part to the Super Smash Bros. franchise from the very beginning. Master Hand is typically faced at the end of Classic Mode (usually alongside Crazy Hand if conditions are met). Master Hand despite being a major part to the Smash Bros. franchise still has yet to become a playable character. The only two instances where the character was able to be played as without the usage of a hacking device was through a glitch in Melee, and for a special one time event towards the very end of Ultimate’s Adventure Mode, World of Light.
In regards to the latter, it is regarded by many to be very peculiar why there was no option to revisit the event where you got to play as Master Hand after clearing World of Light. There easily could have been a Master Hand mode to Multi-Man Smash, and it even could have been made available as free DLC such as Stage Builder, Home Run Contest, and the ability to re-challenge spirits through the spirit catalog.
I am not sure why it was not made an option considering how fun that event was and how it was one of the biggest standouts for World of Light as a whole. A sort of boss rush was even implemented through Sephiroth’s classic mode route.
The idea of a playable Master Hand though could be that the character is further altered to fit in as a traditional Smash fighter. Master Hand’s playable incarnation in that World of Light event was still pretty close to how he operates as a boss. Master Hand is KO’d by decreasing his stamina to 0%, not by knocking him out of bounds or off of the stage.
It would take quite a bit of ingenuity to do this considering that Master Hand is a character that typically floats, and also has many different flashy attacks. Master Hand’s attacks also do not come out quickly as well and could probably be easily overwhelmed by any competent player in a multiplayer match.
There is also the matter that if Master Hand were indeed the final newcomer to Ultimate, he has almost nothing to pull for his challenger pack in terms of a stage, music, and spirits. Music at best would be remixes of Smash tracks from prior Smash titles (of which there were quite a few added for Ultimate’s base game). For a stage and spirits, it is difficult to think of anything.
As such, I think Master Hand is the least likely possibility of the five Nintendo analyses I have presented so far. With that being said, I do think there is a small possibility that Master Hand could end up the mythical “bonus fighter” that many seem to be hoping for. I think in this instance that Master Hand would pretty much just end up being close to his playable World of Light incarnation. It might just be that the character is only playable for the multi-man Smash modes.
Master Hand is actually the only possibility I could see for a “bonus fighter” due to his unique circumstances (a character that was playable in another part of the game briefly). I think Sakurai is telling the truth that the final character for Pass 2 is indeed the final newcomer for Ultimate. Master Hand would simply be a special case in which the character’s playable event is made normally available to play.
Regardless, it is going to be very interesting to see what sort of content is going to be added with the final DLC wave for Ultimate. A playable Master Hand, in one form or another, would be a very nice sendoff for a Smash title as legendary as Ultimate.
In regards to the latter, it is regarded by many to be very peculiar why there was no option to revisit the event where you got to play as Master Hand after clearing World of Light. There easily could have been a Master Hand mode to Multi-Man Smash, and it even could have been made available as free DLC such as Stage Builder, Home Run Contest, and the ability to re-challenge spirits through the spirit catalog.
I am not sure why it was not made an option considering how fun that event was and how it was one of the biggest standouts for World of Light as a whole. A sort of boss rush was even implemented through Sephiroth’s classic mode route.
The idea of a playable Master Hand though could be that the character is further altered to fit in as a traditional Smash fighter. Master Hand’s playable incarnation in that World of Light event was still pretty close to how he operates as a boss. Master Hand is KO’d by decreasing his stamina to 0%, not by knocking him out of bounds or off of the stage.
It would take quite a bit of ingenuity to do this considering that Master Hand is a character that typically floats, and also has many different flashy attacks. Master Hand’s attacks also do not come out quickly as well and could probably be easily overwhelmed by any competent player in a multiplayer match.
There is also the matter that if Master Hand were indeed the final newcomer to Ultimate, he has almost nothing to pull for his challenger pack in terms of a stage, music, and spirits. Music at best would be remixes of Smash tracks from prior Smash titles (of which there were quite a few added for Ultimate’s base game). For a stage and spirits, it is difficult to think of anything.
As such, I think Master Hand is the least likely possibility of the five Nintendo analyses I have presented so far. With that being said, I do think there is a small possibility that Master Hand could end up the mythical “bonus fighter” that many seem to be hoping for. I think in this instance that Master Hand would pretty much just end up being close to his playable World of Light incarnation. It might just be that the character is only playable for the multi-man Smash modes.
Master Hand is actually the only possibility I could see for a “bonus fighter” due to his unique circumstances (a character that was playable in another part of the game briefly). I think Sakurai is telling the truth that the final character for Pass 2 is indeed the final newcomer for Ultimate. Master Hand would simply be a special case in which the character’s playable event is made normally available to play.
Regardless, it is going to be very interesting to see what sort of content is going to be added with the final DLC wave for Ultimate. A playable Master Hand, in one form or another, would be a very nice sendoff for a Smash title as legendary as Ultimate.
A Few More Possibilities:
I am going to outline a few more possibilities here, since they seem to still have some notable support among Smash fans during this twilight period.
Ryu Hayabusa:
The main protagonist to the Ninja Gaiden series. This character was seen as a front runner for DLC all throughout the DLC epoch for Ultimate, and at one point seemed extremely likely due to the announcement of Ninja Gaiden Master Collection (even myself I saw Hayabusa as one of the most likely character possibilities during much of Pass 2’s duration). However, with the release of the compilation and people at Koei-Tecmo constantly talking about how much they hope Ryu Hayabusa is added to Smash, it seems like Ultimate simply will not be the title where he makes his Smash debut.There is a possibility though that the character is added as a Mii costume for the final DLC wave. It is peculiar though where there was no spirit event for Ninja Gaiden Master Collection, and the fact there was very little Koei-Tecmo content in Ultimate given the size of the developer/publisher (they are the largest Japanese game developer without a character on Ultimate’s roster).
Rayman:
Rayman is the eponymous protagonist to the Rayman series. At one point, he was one of the most wanted characters among the Western Smash fanbase. However, the character seems to have increasingly fallen to obscurity at Ubisoft with the character’s 25th anniversary having barely been acknowledged by that company. Ubisoft content has been added as DLC for Ultimate (with the Rabbid Mii hat and the Altair Mii costume), so the company is engaged as far as additional Smash content goes. I do think the character’s Japanese obscurity, and middling Western popularity hurts his prospects at being a contender for the final newcomer for Ultimate. That being said, I do see Rayman having a decent chance at gaining a deluxe Mii costume for the final Mii costume wave (two of the Minecraft Mii costumes, namely the Minecraft Pig and Creeper, have detached limbs).
Ashley:
Ashley is probably the most popular supporting character for the WarioWare series. WarioWare Get It Together will be releasing very soon. Her supporters have said that the character could end up being utilized to promote that title, and Get It Together being used as the focus for the final challenger pack. There is a very good chance that hopes of this could be dashed either this week or next week if a promotional spirit event is announced for WarioWare Get It Together. Like Waluigi, she is an Assist Trophy, but has nowhere near the popularity that he has. Overall, if there is any additional WarioWare content before Ultimate ends, I expect it to be a spirit event for Get It Together.
Bandanna Waddle Dee:
Bandanna Waddle Dee is a major supporting character for the Kirby franchise, and probably the most prominent and popular character for the series outside of Kirby, Meta Knight, and King Dedede. The Kirby franchise will be turning 30 years old next year, and it is highly rumored that it will be having its first fully 3D in gameplay mainline installment to celebrate such a milestone. Bandanna Dee is probably the most wanted Nintendo newcomer at this point, with Waluigi being the only other Nintendo newcomer possibility to rival this claim. Bandanna Waddle Dee also has no major role in Ultimate. This all being said, considering that this rumored Kirby title has yet to even be unveiled (and might not even exist), Bandanna Dee’s prospects of being utilized as a promotional character to close out Ultimate are quite slim.
Rayman:
Rayman is the eponymous protagonist to the Rayman series. At one point, he was one of the most wanted characters among the Western Smash fanbase. However, the character seems to have increasingly fallen to obscurity at Ubisoft with the character’s 25th anniversary having barely been acknowledged by that company. Ubisoft content has been added as DLC for Ultimate (with the Rabbid Mii hat and the Altair Mii costume), so the company is engaged as far as additional Smash content goes. I do think the character’s Japanese obscurity, and middling Western popularity hurts his prospects at being a contender for the final newcomer for Ultimate. That being said, I do see Rayman having a decent chance at gaining a deluxe Mii costume for the final Mii costume wave (two of the Minecraft Mii costumes, namely the Minecraft Pig and Creeper, have detached limbs).
Ashley:
Ashley is probably the most popular supporting character for the WarioWare series. WarioWare Get It Together will be releasing very soon. Her supporters have said that the character could end up being utilized to promote that title, and Get It Together being used as the focus for the final challenger pack. There is a very good chance that hopes of this could be dashed either this week or next week if a promotional spirit event is announced for WarioWare Get It Together. Like Waluigi, she is an Assist Trophy, but has nowhere near the popularity that he has. Overall, if there is any additional WarioWare content before Ultimate ends, I expect it to be a spirit event for Get It Together.
Bandanna Waddle Dee:
Bandanna Waddle Dee is a major supporting character for the Kirby franchise, and probably the most prominent and popular character for the series outside of Kirby, Meta Knight, and King Dedede. The Kirby franchise will be turning 30 years old next year, and it is highly rumored that it will be having its first fully 3D in gameplay mainline installment to celebrate such a milestone. Bandanna Dee is probably the most wanted Nintendo newcomer at this point, with Waluigi being the only other Nintendo newcomer possibility to rival this claim. Bandanna Waddle Dee also has no major role in Ultimate. This all being said, considering that this rumored Kirby title has yet to even be unveiled (and might not even exist), Bandanna Dee’s prospects of being utilized as a promotional character to close out Ultimate are quite slim.
Conclusion:
There are quite a few, possibly Sakurai included, that see Smash 4 and Ultimate, as one single cycle. Keep in mind there was only a two year break between the unveils of Bayonetta and Corrin, and the unveil of Inkling. Whoever the final newcomer to Ultimate ends up being will thus be carrying a lot of weight on their shoulders in terms of expectations.
Even if the final slot ends up being a promotional sort of character, we should not forget all that has been given to us throughout this Smash cycle. For many, this promotional character could end up becoming very special to them. I can say for myself that a promotional character did end up becoming very special to me (this is Roy, for those whom are curious).
I hope that even if the final newcomer ends up being someone that most were not hoping for or expecting, that they in the end have gratitude for all that the Ultimate team has given to us. Ultimate is a culmination of the Smash series going back to 1999 to now. It ending, regardless of whom ultimately ends up being chosen, is definitely a historic event.
If I had to name only a single character that will be Ultimate’s final newcomer, I would say it would be Nahobino. The character seems to be having a lot going for him, and also has the benefits of representing a very long running franchise with a cult following behind which would thus mitigate the typical backlash that is usually associated with a promotional character addition.
My personal expectation is that the final newcomer probably will not be unveiled until the latter half of October at the earliest, and there is a possibility that he/she might not be unveiled until even December (though I think this is unlikely). There is also a possibility the character could end up being unveiled in September, but I do not feel optimistic on this.
I have barely engaged in Smash speculation for Pass 2. In general, I feel just about retired from the Smash speculation scene. Most of my predictions and speculation for Pass 2 has ended up being wrong as well. There is thus a good possibility that none of the characters that I have chosen to give analyses to end up being Ultimate’s final newcomer.
Ultimate in general has been my dream title for Smash, and it was very special to me. While there was not much added to Ultimate’s DLC that was part of my remaining personal hopes (Banjo & Kazooie being by far the biggest standout for me personally), I can say that 95% of what I wanted to see is now in Smash. Honestly, I would have been satisfied with Ultimate even if there was no DLC at all for the title.
I am someone that began participating in Smash speculation online starting in 2001. Over 20 years have passed, and much has changed since then. I have seen countless debates, character campaigns, and leaks (both legit and elaborate hoaxes) happen over the course of those 20 years. I have been having many thoughts about all of this, and in general about the two decades I have spent being involved in the online Smash community. I have been increasingly less and less involved since Ultimate’s release, and there was even a nearly three year stretch (from June 2015 to April 2018) where I was basically gone from the Smash community.
Ultimate fulfilled many long running dreams I had for Smash going back for over a decade. As I get older, my free time depreciates more and more, and also subsequently becomes increasingly valuable to me. Dixie Kong is a character that I very much want to see added to Smash’s roster, and do think it is peculiar why she is not part of a roster with nearly 90 playable characters, but I do not feel the drive to continue supporting her past Ultimate.
In general, Ultimate feels like my own personal capstone for Smash. For many others it does not, but for me, even small touches like Pico having a role in World of Light meant much to me. Sakurai has said this earlier this year that everything must come to an end eventually, and while I do think he will most likely come back to direct Smash’s next installment, I feel for myself that I want to bow out of roster speculation and character support.
Smash has been a major part of my life ever since I first learned about the existence of Smash 64 on a Metroid fansite back in December 1998 or January 1999. Most of my online participation has been in regards to Smash speculation and character support.
This is most likely the last speculation post I will be making for Ultimate, and most likely the penultimate post that I will be making for Smash speculation in general. I might make a post outlining some general ideas on what direction I think Smash might take with its roster after the final newcomer for Ultimate has been unveiled.
Thank you very much for your time in reading what I had to say. The Ultimate speculation epoch in general has been a very long one. The first newcomer was shown in March 2018, and the final newcomer has yet to be unveiled. By comparison, the second longest running epoch (Smash 4’s), had its first newcomer unveiled in June 2013, and its final newcomers unveiled in December 2015, which ended up being 2.5 years. Ultimate has surpassed this by over a year.
It was bittersweet getting this post finally completed. I know very few are interested in what I have to say these days, but it was kind of nostalgic having to write such an extensive analysis again. I hope those that have taken the time to read my thoughts and speculation have gotten some sort of insight from it, or found it at least a bit entertaining or interesting.
This may be the last post I make in regards to Ultimate speculation, but I still have a few more writing projects that I do plan to get out during the remaining months of this year. One is my Donkey Kong series essay that I mentioned back during June. I plan to get that posted at some point in September. I also want to post a revised version of my Dixie Kong essay. I plan to have that posted either in September or October.
Aside from those two, I also want to make another significant work as a sort of retrospective in regards to Ultimate and my time as a Smash speculator in general. I have no idea when I will actually end up finishing this though. It could be anywhere from November to January. My goal is to have it finished soon after the final newcomer and DLC in general for Ultimate is released. I really want to make it both ultimate and special.
I am very glad to finally have this speculation in regards to the final newcomer finally done. It took me far longer to complete than I had expected. Again, I am grateful to anyone that took the time to read this analysis in its entirety. Thank you very much for your time and patience. I am very glad it is finally complete, and at this point I just want to see just how Ultimate concludes. I hope that this final newcomer and DLC wave in general ends up satisfying as many fans as possible. I hope the possibilities I outlined helped give some perspective as to who it could possibly end up being. This now brings my final speculation post for Ultimate to a close. Thank you.
Last edited:
