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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Garteam

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On the other hand, the next Smash starting development so late (one year or so from now?, after the current project is complete) would be very weird I think.
Yeah, Smash is always released within the first two years of a console's life (the N64 and 3DS don't count because Smash was a new series and for 3DS was tied to for Wii U).

If Sakurai isn't working on Smash right now, it's much more likely that Sakurai isn't involved with the next Smash than a new Smash not being somewhere in its development cycle at this point.
 

Wunderwaft

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If the next project of Sakurai is the next Smash then this flips everything we thought about the cut off period for the roster since it's late 2021/early 2022. There's a lot of characters whose likelihood got changed upside down like the previously mentioned Gen 10 Pokemon, Gen 9 didn't even get revealed by the time the project plan was being finalized.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Tekken Project has always been a completely separate studio from the people who worked on Smash. They didn't pull literally every Namco employee to make Ultimate.
Now I'm just imagining the Tekken Project dev room has a Smash Bros. Alarm.

"SMASH ALERT! REPEAT! SMASH ALERT! ALL DEVS REPORT TO THE SMASH DEV ROOM TO COMMENCE WORK ON THE PROJECT! THIS IS NOT A DRILL!"
 

pitchfulprocessing

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Tekken Project has always been a completely separate studio from the people who worked on Smash. They didn't pull literally every Namco employee to make Sakurai's silly platform fighter crossover. It's a big company with lots of studios and employees so both can be done at once.
That's not what I'm saying really. Harada directly said after Sora's presentation was announced that the development staff at Bandai Namco Studios would return to the Tekken Project after Ultimate finished following a short break. Obvs they're still separate teams, but there's heavy overlap internally between specifically the Tekken Project devs and the Smash devs.
 

Garteam

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If Sakurai's new project is a new Smash, that's actually really good news for Sora. Depending on when his rights were negotiated, Sora's license may be like Cloud's, where he will appear as DLC in a current game and as a launch character in a future game with the same fundamental content.

Alternatively, the Amiibo's release could also be the by-product of general negotiations to get Sora into the next Smash.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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That's not what I'm saying really. Harada directly said after Sora's presentation was announced that the development staff at Bandai Namco Studios would return to the Tekken Project after Ultimate finished following a short break. Obvs they're still separate teams, but there's heavy overlap internally between specifically the Tekken Project devs and the Smash devs.
I don't think Harada talking about it directly confirms overlap. After all, he and Sakurai are actually friends beyond just work and Harada actually got to see the Smash work because of both the Heihachi Mii and Kazuya's Challenger Pack.
 
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Gengar84

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If the next project of Sakurai is the next Smash then this flips everything we thought about the cut off period for the roster since it's late 2021/early 2022. There's a lot of characters whose likelihood got changed upside down like the previously mentioned Gen 10 Pokemon, Gen 9 didn't even get revealed by the time the project plan was being finalized.
I wonder if that means we’ll see a more popular classic Pokemon from an earlier generation instead? It gives me some hope for Gengar at least. I’m also curious about the timing of Legends Arceus. This could strengthen the case for Hisuian Zoroark since they were pushing it a lot at the time even giving it its own animated mini series.
 

Wunderwaft

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I imagine this cut off period also makes Raven Beak a much more prominent pick since Dread literally released in the same week that Sora got revealed for Smash. Sylux on the other hand is harmed by this since Prime 4 was still early in development with the game only getting revealed this year.
 

pitchfulprocessing

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I don't think Harada talking about it directly confirms overlap. After all, he and Sakurai are actually friends beyond just work and Harada actually got to see the Smash work because of both the Heihachi Mii and Kazuya's Challenger Pack.
They're friends and regularly hang out, but I'm not really sure how else to interpret "the development staff at BANDAI NAMCO Studios will take a short break and return to the TEKKEN Project again" lol. He's pretty much just directly saying the skeleton crew behind Smash's DLC would take a break and then return to the Tekken Project "again".
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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Assuming this project is a new Smash game is definitely jumping into conclusions a bit much.

Unless it's literally planned to be a launch title, something that would actually be more harmful to its marketing since it gives significantly less time for character trailers to shine imo, the only conceivable way it could be Smash is if Nintendo did like IS with with Engage and held the finished game hostage for years before releasing it.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I wonder if that means we’ll see a more popular classic Pokemon from an earlier generation instead? It gives me some hope for Gengar at least. I’m also curious about the timing of Legends Arceus. This could strengthen the case for Hisuian Zoroark since they were pushing it a lot at the time even giving it its own animated mini series.
If that is the case, Pokémon Scarlet/Violet released the same year with the DLC releasing the following year, so my money would be on:
  1. A Starter
  2. Koraidon/Miraidon (unlikely due to requiring the development of two separate characters that don't reuse assets)
  3. Terrapagos (unlikely because semi-circle)
  4. Ogrepon
Assuming this project is a new Smash game is definitely jumping into conclusions a bit much.

Unless it's literally planned to be a launch title, something that would actually be more harmful to its marketing since it gives significantly less time for character trailers to shine imo, the only conceivable way it could be Smash is if Nintendo did like IS with with Engage and held the finished game hostage for years before releasing it.
To be fair, the Switch's successor was planned to be out this year.
 
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fogbadge

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Maybe I misspoke on that. I don’t mean literally relate to them. What I mean is that I prefer that the characters have interesting personalities and stories. One of my favorite characters is Sephiroth, for example. That doesn’t mean I want to burn down my hometown and summon a giant meteor to destroy the planet. I just thought he was cool. Silent protagonists are usually just blank slates that you’re supposed to insert yourself into that role. I just have a harder time caring about those characters.
that’s the thing I’d say byleth has a very interesting story. granted you only learn it in certain routes but he’s got a very good backstory. I’d say a silent protagonist is slightly better than a non silent protagonist who speaks like corrin and alear. sure they both have interesting stories to but they’re still blank slates, just blank slates that talk. at least with byleth I can imagine what he’s saying to everyone else
 

NotGenerico

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I think this new project is very, very likely to be a new Smash Bros. Why else would Ultimate be getting random updates like the 4 Spirit Events or the patch that fixed a GSP issue? The development team was probably working on the new Smash and decided to throw those things as a bonus.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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They're friends and regularly hang out, but I'm not really sure how else to interpret "the development staff at BANDAI NAMCO Studios will take a short break and return to the TEKKEN Project again" lol. He's pretty much just directly saying the skeleton crew behind Smash's DLC would take a break and then return to the Tekken Project "again".
I don't think it meant the Smash devs were Tekken Project employees.

I think what it meant was that the Smash devs would join Tekken Project to work on Tekken 7 until they got something else to work on. Like I said the other day, a work ethic like Sakurai's is just the norm for Japan so having an entire studio with no work to do is just going to be torture to them and that's how you get the Japanese version of a Microsoft mass layoff.

If anything, Harada scooping them up for his game ensures that we'd preserve as much of the devs who worked on Ultimate as possible if Nintendo asks Bandai Namco to make Smash again.
 
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Garteam

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that would actually be more harmful to its marketing since it gives significantly less time for character trailers to shine imo
Ultimate only had 6 months between its reveal and release, but its fighter videos were arguably more successful than Smash for Wii U's.

Nintendo games aren't announced far in advance anymore. Big pre-release periods are a thing of the past, unfortunately.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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Ultimate only had 6 months between its reveal and release, but its fighter videos were arguably more successful than Smash for Wii U's.

Nintendo games aren't announced far in advance anymore. Big pre-release periods are a thing of the past, unfortunately.
6 months is longer than what most Nintendo games get, honestly. Smash still gets special treament.
 

pitchfulprocessing

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I don't think it meant the Smash devs were Tekken Project employees.

I think what it meant was that the Smash devs would join Tekken Project to work on Tekken 7 until they got something else to work on. Like I said the other day, a work ethic like Sakurai's is just the norm for Japan so having an entire studio with no work to do is just going to be torture to them and that's how you get the Japanese version of a Microsoft mass layoff.

If anything, Harada scooping them up for his game ensure that we'd preserve as much of the devs who worked on Ultimate as possible if Nintendo asks Bandai Namco to make Smash again.
Well yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. Harada said they would work on the Tekken Project "again". IE, they worked on Tekken Project previously, went over to Smash, and are now returning to Tekken. That's very typical for game dev, especially in the case of Smash which didn't have a formalised internal development team at the time.
 

cashregister9

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New Sakurai game in development? There is chance we might have this one in the bag Meteos bros...


Seriously though its probably Smash, maybe a Kid Icarus, but I am not getting my hopes up for that one
 

Dinoman96

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My hot take is that I fear the days of Sakurai working on original non-Smash projects are long over, and a lot of that is because of the advent of DLC.

Like think about it, once Melee and Brawl's development were over, there wasn't anything else left to do with them because obviously the GCN and Wii didn't support DLC, so that freed Sakurai to go work on original projects like Air Ride, Meteos and KI Uprising in-between the gaps. But nowadays there isn't really much time to prioritize that anymore because now Sakurai has to work on additional DLC fighters for most of the rest of the platform's generation, as we've seen with both Smash 4 and Ultimate.

While I would love another Uprising styled project from Sakurai again, unfortunately it just makes far more business sense to have him get a Smash Bros. game out in time of the next platform's launch and then let him focus on additional DLC for the next couple of years. TBH Uprising already kinda set back Smash 4 a couple of years, we probably would have gotten it as early as 2012 if Sakurai and Iwata just decided to plan the next Smash Bros. for the next platforms shortly after Brawl was complete.
 
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Gengar84

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My hot take is that I fear the days of Sakurai working on original non-Smash projects are long over, and a lot of that is because of the advent of DLC.

Like think about it, once Melee and Brawl's development were over, there wasn't anything else left to do with them because obviously the GCN and Wii didn't support DLC, so that freed Sakurai to go work on original projects like Air Ride, Meteos and KI Uprising in-between the gaps. But nowadays there isn't really much time to prioritize that anymore because now Sakurai has to work on additional DLC fighters for most of the rest of the platform's generation, as we've seen with both Smash 4 and Ultimate.

While I would love another Uprising styled project from Sakurai again, unfortunately it just makes far more business sense to have him get a Smash Bros. game out in time of the next platform's launch and then let him focus on additional DLC for the next couple of years. TBH Uprising already kinda set back Smash 4 a couple of years, we probably would have gotten it as early as 2012 if Sakurai and Iwata just decided to plan the next Smash Bros. for the next platforms shortly after Brawl was complete.
That’s my thinking as well. While it’s not a guarantee by any means, I do think that his project is the next Smash. The timing lines up perfectly to similar timeframes between Smash games. We’ve also seen random recent updates to Ultimate. If it isn’t Smash, that means they won’t be starting development for at least another year and that’s way too long between Smash games in my opinion.
 

BuckleyTim

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If next smash was finalized in early 2022 (which is a big if considering sakurai didn't say it was smash specifically)... I don't necessarily know if that makes gen 9 any more likely over gen 10. Like, the assumption is that the pick would be made to promote the newest gen, would you really stick to gen 9 knowing that gen X could very well be revealed or even release by the time the 3/4 years of smash dev are done? It'd be weird to call it a recent pick a t that point. Maybe this is cope because I don't really like the gen 9 hopefuls that much but I feel like they'd account for the possibility that timing would most likely bunch them right up between generations of pokemon, especially when I feel like that gen X will be something GF will really want to push due to round number bias and all that
 

7NATOR

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So now it's officially confirmed a Project has been in development since Early 2022, I'm going to have a field day with this one when I come back, but the questions is

If it's Smash (Which I think, but opinions vary) When do you guys think it will be released following this timeline? t being launch title would give it pretty much about 3 Years of Development, the same as usual Smash games. Any later would make it have longest Development time of any Smash game
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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If next smash was finalized in early 2022 (which is a big if considering sakurai didn't say it was smash specifically)... I don't necessarily know if that makes gen 9 any more likely over gen 10. Like, the assumption is that the pick would be made to promote the newest gen, would you really stick to gen 9 knowing that gen X could very well be revealed or even release by the time the 3/4 years of smash dev are done? It'd be weird to call it a recent pick a t that point. Maybe this is cope because I don't really like the gen 9 hopefuls that much but I feel like they'd account for the possibility that timing would most likely bunch them right up between generations of pokemon, especially when I feel like that gen X will be something GF will really want to push due to round number bias and all that
I'd say it's highly likely that Gen 10 wasn't even in pre-production by that point since the DLC was releasing late the following year. They'd have to wait at least one whole year, possibly somewhere around 2 years for designs to be finalized, which is a big difference from including designs from a game releasing about a year after the project plan was finalized. In that latter case they were probably waiting more like months.

Assuming this is the timeline, I'd say it confirms Gen 9.
 

NintenRob

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On the other hand, the next Smash starting development so late (one year or so from now?, after the current project is complete) would be very weird I think.
It may not be as far off as you think. Sakurai games have quicker turnarounds then a lot of other modern games. Kid Icarus Uprising came out in 2012 and he was able to follow that up with Smash Wii U and 3DS in 2014, then DLC for that ended in 2016 and Smash Ultimate came out in 2018.

This new project of his is probably close to finished if not already done, which lines up with getting ready for the next project with Namco studio S, Smash Bros.

And I wouldn't expect Smash until the 2nd or 3rd year if Switch 2. And we still don't even know when Switch 2 is coming out
 

BuckleyTim

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Oof, Shadow's chance actually most likely are screwed considering Sega's big push for him only started happening a year or two afterwards.
 

NintenRob

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Ya'll have to remember one thing about this project, Sakurai said Nintendo approached him to make it rather than the other way around, and if it's Nintendo then they most definitely want more Smash developed early on to sell their next console.
Hold up, maybe I need to re-watch the video, but I don't think he said who approached him?
 

Gengar84

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I feel like this might increase the chances of a few of my wanted characters due to timing:

Hisuian Zoroark (Legends Arceus - January 2022)
Jinx (Arcane - November 2021)
Alphen/Shionne (Tales of Arise - September 2021)
Rash/Pimple/Zitz (Battletoads reboot - August 2020)

Not saying any of them are for sure happening but they were all still pretty relevant during the potential next Smash’s roster selection period.
 
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Dan Quixote

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Gen 9 didn't even get revealed by the time the project plan was being finalized.
tbf isn't that what happened to Greninja? Its appearance in X/Y and Smash were pretty much developed concurrently, but it's a Pokémon and that series is big enough to get that sort of preemptive special treatment.

My hot take is that I fear the days of Sakurai working on original non-Smash projects are long over, and a lot of that is because of the advent of DLC.

Like think about it, once Melee and Brawl's development were over, there wasn't anything else left to do with them because obviously the GCN and Wii didn't support DLC, so that freed Sakurai to go work on original projects like Air Ride, Meteos and KI Uprising in-between the gaps. But nowadays there isn't really much time to prioritize that anymore because now Sakurai has to work on additional DLC fighters for most of the rest of the platform's generation, as we've seen with both Smash 4 and Ultimate.

While I would love another Uprising styled project from Sakurai again, unfortunately it just makes far more business sense to have him get a Smash Bros. game out in time of the next platform's launch and then let him focus on additional DLC for the next couple of years. TBH Uprising already kinda set back Smash 4 a couple of years, we probably would have gotten it as early as 2012 if Sakurai and Iwata just decided to plan the next Smash Bros. for the next platforms shortly after Brawl was complete.
This is pretty much my theory. People forget how long DLC cycles last. As mentioned earlier in this thread, the reveal of Ultimate to release was only about half a year, but then the release of the game to the final DLC fighter was almost two years. Obviously, the actual development of Ultimate lasted for years before its reveal, but that would've been actual round-the-clock, dedicated work. Meanwhile, working on the DLC fighters was probably a lot more spaced out legal and marketing responsibilities. Sakurai spent so much of his time in an awkward middle ground where he was 99% done with a game but still too busy to start another.
 

Wunderwaft

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tbf isn't that what happened to Greninja? Its appearance in X/Y and Smash were pretty much developed concurrently, but it's a Pokémon and that series is big enough to get that sort of preemptive special treatment.
Yes, that's my point. Gen 9 was the gen that was being developed behind closed doors when the project plan was being finalized. Gen 10 is out of the picture.
 

RileyXY1

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Yes, that's my point. Gen 9 was the gen that was being developed behind closed doors when the project plan was being finalized. Gen 10 is out of the picture.
Yeah, unless GF is gonna force Sakurai to scrap the planned Gen 9 fighter to force a Gen 10 fighter instead, it's clear that Gen 10 is not getting a rep. In fact I don't know what they're gonna do about Pokémon.
 
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