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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

LiveStudioAudience

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Honestly, I think it's just a case of many fans trying to realistic given that theories about relevance and likelihood via recent titles have often not always worked out. Throw in faked evidence like the Grinch leak and even infamous posters on Smashboards claiming him as a seeming shoe in for Ultimate and I don't blame anyone for being a bit reticent for believing he's a sure thing. He feels like has a higher chance now than 6-8 years ago, but Smash is (if nothing else) a case study in assumptions going awry in the face of reality.
 

Gengar84

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I think Geno has a real chance this time around. The remake of Super Mario RPG has really helped bring him back into relevance. That said, I think it’s still closer to 50/50 and I could see either outcome happening. My gut still tells me we won’t see him this time either but it’s definitely not out of the question. I feel like his biggest hurdles are his competition within both Square-Enix and Mario. I suspect Waluigi outpriotitizes Geno for Mario. There are a lot of potential Square-Enix characters we might see first like 2B, Crono, or Clive.
 

Swamp Sensei

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I’m not sure where and why he got such a big following amongst Smash fans. Like, K Rool was once the main villain of his franchise, Ridley is one of Samus’ most recurring rivals, Banjo & Kazooie are the main characters of their series. Comparatively Geno is was more obscure.

But at this point the following is there, and I just think it’d be nice to see them get the big win :nifty:
That's part of the conundrum. All of the characters in Smash are major parts of their franchises. They're all either main characters, main supporting cast members, mascots, main villains and/or player characters.

The only exceptions are Mr. Game & Watch, as he's basically a Smash original and Piranha Plant who was purposely chosen to be someone you wouldn't expect. Even still Game & Watch acts as a mascot to the Game & Watch and Piranha Plant is more famous than 90% of the roster. I guess Mine Min sort of counts but she's among the most popular characters within her franchise and is apparently a "main character."

We've never gotten a straight up minor character. We've gotten minor IP like Ice Climber, but even still we got the main characters of that IP.

Geno really is an anomaly. It's like if Marine the Raccoon, Owain from Fire Emblem or Brash the Bear became Uber popular.
 
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Louie G.

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So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
I got so frustrated trying to discuss Geno (with both sides of the debate) during Ultimate that I Geno-ed myself out. I think I've settled into a pure neutral stance. Geno is a 50/50 gamble - his greatest flaw is absolved through a successful remake of his 30 year old debut title, almost too conveniently so. His fanbase was just about as passionate as they've ever been during the entirety of Ultimate's lifespan. The drawback however is the same as it's always been... is Geno worth the effort over a dozen other viable options?

Well, for what it's worth, I doubt Square Enix would be that stingy over Geno. He's a Mii Costume, his likeness is a spirit and they just collaborated with Nintendo to make the Mario RPG remake a reality. They are otherwise doing nothing with him so compared to Cloud, Hero etc I expect that he would be chump change. Square's lack of interest has IMO never been his problem - the stars have just never aligned for Sakurai and Nintendo to take that initiative.

I do want to emphasize, though, why Mario characters are often added in the first place. It's speculation on my end (well, outside of Piranha Plant, who was cited with this exact reason for being added) but it would make sense to assume there are always new Mario characters because they are the most recognizable characters on the roster. It gives Nintendo fans both casual and hardcore some identifiable faces to get excited about. Waluigi, Pauline, King Boo, Kamek, Toad... these are names that would do that to a degree. Geno is an outlier. The Mario RPG remake did well, but he is hardly cemented into the Mario pantheon the way these aforementioned characters are. In this sense I believe people should think of Geno less as a "Mario rep", and treat him like the wildcard anomaly he is.

If I were a dedicated Geno supporter, I would be feeling good after the remake. We don't know when the roster is being finalized, but it's only a couple years in the rear view as it stands and Sakurai is already quite well aware how popular Geno has been. Factoring in his own affinity for the character, the fan demand, and the fact that he had a major appearance in a recent Switch title... If it doesn't happen now, it never will. This is virtually the perfect layup for him, I don't think you could ask for a better scenario.

I had a similar mellowed out sentiment about Ridley and even K. Rool going into Ultimate - it was my assumption that this is his now or never moment. It was the point where we could determine whether or not it was worth continuing to fight - fortunately, we got the message that all that campaigning finally paid off. If Geno doesn't appear on the base roster I will give him some grace... he may be better for DLC, seeing how inconsequential he is to Square Enix otherwise, perhaps they would at least want to maximize how much profit can be made from this character. I guess we'll find out eventually.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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The thing with Geno is that he pretty was the first original Mario RPG character (well Mallow arrives earlier in the game, but you get what I mean). Not only did he become the defacto mascot to a generally well regarded (and a somewhat trapped on old hardware) mainline Nintendo/Squaresoft crossover, a concept which was pretty rare anyway, there was something almost mystically cool about him.

He wasn't really brought back (outside a M & L Superstars Saga cameo) and so he increasingly stood as particularly rare and interesting hybrid of dual philosophies from two fairly different gaming companies, having weighty presence of a major Final Fantasy figure while still having the childlike qualities of a cast member from Mario. There simply weren't and to some degrees aren't a lot of first party or first party adjacent characters quite like him and it made the allure of having in something like Smash all the more appealing.
 
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GoldenYuiitusin

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So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
The remake of Super Mario RPG puts him in a better position than he's ever been before, I will admit.

That being said, I'm going to be painfully blunt and hope it isn't his time.
I've gotten completely burnt out on Geno during the DLC speculation thanks to a certain obese male on top of frozen water and his amassed cult.
 
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Thegameandwatch

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So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
The remake released so it’s probably a higher chance but it’s all up to both Nintendo and Sqaure Enix. Especially the latter who owns the character.

There is also a chance of Square wanting other characters.
 
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Scrimblo Bimblo

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So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
Could be.
He's one of the last long-storied fandom shaking characters still not in, Square and Nintendo have been working together A LOT lately (both in and outside of Smash) plus most of their actual top dogs are already playable, Sakurai has said he wanted him and he's been getting significant nods in Smash pretty consistently, and of course, most importantly, there's the Mario RPG remake.
I think he's actually fairly likely this time. There's not many characters who feel like the stars have aligned for them to such an extent.
 

RykZyk

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So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
imo I would definitely say that Geno chances are higher than ever now, thanks to the remake. But even still, I think his chances are not as high as some other characters. Other than just being popular for some unknown reason, I don't see any reason why he should be a fighter. I just don't see him as a high priority, but I don't discard him at all.
 

ScrubReborn

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So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
Most important question is, when did SSB6's development start?
  • If it really was mid 2021, that predates the remake, so he loses that advantage. I doubt it's 2021 though.
  • Alternatively, if it was late 2023 (Studio S formation), that would be much better for Geno since that would be very close proximity to the remake. I think this is a lot more likely.
Granted he's prolly one of the biggest remaining Brawl-era holdouts along with Isaac, so if Sakurai wants to dip his toes in that well, he might still have a chance regardless. Brawl nostalgia's gonna start hitting real soon I bet (or already has). Don't underestimate zoomer nostalgia. But assuming a late 2023 project plan, that and the remake might put him over the edge...

Or it just won't. If there's one thing we Geno fans are used to, it's getting predictions wrong. 🤷

There is also a chance of Square wanting other characters.
I don't think that's much of a factor. I'm sure Square would prefer other characters, but if Nintendo insisted on Geno, I doubt they'd just refuse. That's still more money than they'd get if they didn't give up the rights. Nintendo's the real question mark here.
 
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RykZyk

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I don't think that's much of a factor. I'm sure Square would prefer other characters, but if Nintendo insisted on Geno, I doubt they'd just refuse. That's still more money than they'd get if they didn't give up the rights. Nintendo's the real question mark here.
Honestly yeah, I think that both Sakurai and Nintendo are the ones who have more power to decide what character to choose when in conversations with a company. I mean, Square Enix gave Sakurai full liberty on selecting any FF character. He actually not only considered Cloud but also others like Terra from FF6.

Sakurai is a very well-respected game developer in Japan, too. I mean, he literally obligated Namco to stick with the classic Pac-Man design for his inclusion in Smash, instead of the Ghostly Adventures one.
 

GoldenYuiitusin

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Sakurai is a very well-respected game developer in Japan, too. I mean, he literally obligated Namco to stick with the classic Pac-Man design for his inclusion in Smash, instead of the Ghostly Adventures one.
That's not what happened. He didn't "obligate" anything in any form of ultimatum.
He wanted to use the classic design and if he wasn't allowed to do so, he just would have dropped Pac-Man altogether.

Clearly he was simply allowed to do so without any issue.
 

chocolatejr9

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So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
I think his chances are better... but not by much. It feels like we still don't know much about the hypothetical next game to say for certain. I do agree though that if he DOESN'T show up, he probably never will at this point.

Then again, I'd prefer Vivian or Fawful as the Mario RPG rep, so maybe I'm not the guy to ask...
 

Slime Scholar

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So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
It’s kinda now or never for him. He’ll never be more relevant than this.

Gut feeling says yes, based on that alone. He’s such a longtime request and would therefore be a real crowd pleaser, whether you think it’s really deserved or not (and I kind of don’t), but I could see him being divisive as well.

Nintendo is going to want a “wow they really did it” moment like they had with Ridley imo.
 

Golden Icarus

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…on the subject of some notable Pokemon trainers whose signature mons include potential semiclones there's Elesa with her Emolga (being based off Pikachu), and Cynthia with her Garchomp (possibly based off Charizard)
I’m kinda surprised we don’t get more “Jigglypuffs” in Smash - that is characters who are pretty unique, but are very simple and clearly borrow assets from existing characters. The Pokemon series basically can’t have too much representation and is just dripping with popular characters that could be included this way. Garchomp being built off Charizard is a good example. Blaziken is a crazy popular character that could justifiably steal its entire kit from Falcon and Ken. Gardevoir being built off Zelda might be a stretch, but I could see that as well.

I don’t personally want to see the Pokemon roster more bloated than it already is, but I also feel like it’s low hanging fruit that I wouldn’t blame them for taking.
And I do think this could happen - Splatoon being a big enough series to justify the effort, these characters are some of the most popular new Nintendo icons of the last decade, but also due to Sakurai's seeming interest in doing this kind of team mechanic and promptly abandoning every attempt so far (Diddy / Dixie, Chorus Kids, Rex / Pyra). I think he'll crack the code soon enough.
You just now made me realize that Sakurai has tried a new duo / trio character every game since Melee…and it hasn’t worked out since Melee lol

I will say I’m quite lukewarm on the Squid Sisters idea. Mainly because there are other directions I’d prefer them to take for Splatoon content and other fighters that I’d rather see utilize a music / rhythm mechanic. I’m sure I could come around to liking them if they were included, but it just doesn’t excite me.
So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
There’s hardly anything I can say that doesn’t echo what’s just been said. Nothing about Geno is normal. The most convenient thing about Mario characters is that just about everybody recognizes all of them no matter who you choose, but that doesn’t apply to Geno at all. It makes him not just feel like he has stiff competition, but like he isn’t even in the same league…because he isn’t.

And then you have Square. The company that owns Tifa, Crono, 2B. Gaming all-stars. Geno is relying so heavily on fan demand and “hopeful Sakurai bias,” which certainly is there. And finally being relevant after so many years certainly is a huge boost in his favor, yet doesn’t magically remove him from the weird spot he occupies.

…But he stands out. He really stands out. He is nothing like any other character ever added to Smash, or any character commonly requested for Smash and that’s always been part of the allure. Adding a character with so little importance, or relevance who has lived on purely because of how memorable he is and how cool he would be in Smash. His unique “lore” puts him in a very awkward spot, but also his own spot.

Geno isn’t gonna be selected from a list of Mario characters or Square characters, but from the Geno list. It’s like a button sitting on Sakurai’s desk that he’s never gonna press because it’s just so out of left field, but he has the button. It isn’t going anywhere. The Geno requests aren’t gonna stop and no one else is gonna “fill the void,” so he can press the button and finally put it to rest, or refuse to press it and just make it “out of sight out of mind.” All the Mii costume did was make it obvious that he has the button and with the remake it’s like the button is flashing red and staring him in the face. No one at Nintendo cares if he presses it. Square doesn’t care if he presses it. But it’s flashing red! Everybody’s watching! He has to press it!

I’m 50/50, but if I were a betting man, I’d say he presses the button.
 

RileyXY1

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Yeah, they'll most likely want to have one early reveal that instantly draws the hardcore fanbase on board, like Megaman and Ridley.
I'm not sure who could fill that role apart from Geno or Isaac.
I think that this time it might be a massive third party the community is shocked is even in Smash. I'm talking Joker levels of unexpected.
 

Guynamednelson

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I’m kinda surprised we don’t get more “Jigglypuffs” in Smash - that is characters who are pretty unique, but are very simple and clearly borrow assets from existing characters.
That's pretty much how I proposed SSBU having its own BCP-enhancing the models made for Mii costumes/ATs/other NPCs and giving them Wolf-esque mixes of other fighters' moves alongside making moves out of their AT animations in Waluigi/Krystal/Zero/etc.'s case. And maybe importing some animations from Return to Dream Land DX/Star Allies for Bandana Dee.
 

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Yeah, they'll most likely want to have one early reveal that instantly draws the hardcore fanbase in, like Megaman and Ridley.
I'm not sure who could fill that role apart from Geno or Isaac. Maybe Skull Kid.
I think Waluigi is that character.
 

Shinuto

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I;m gonna be honest, if Geno doesn't get in now he's done for. Literally had a decent selling remake of the game he's from, not much better than that honestly.
 
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Gengar84

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I am very curious why Geno is so popular among Smash fans. I loved Super Mario RPG but I never really had strong feelings about Geno as a character. Other similarly beloved RPG characters of the era like Crono don’t really get anywhere near the level of support for Smash. I imagine a lot of Smash fans are too young to remember his game. Geno does have the advantage of being part of the Mario universe but that actually makes him a bit less interesting to me since Smash already has so many Mario characters. Not that I’m at all opposed to seeing him in Smash. If he’d make a ton of people happy, that’s the most important thing. It’s just weird to me that he’s as popular as he is.
 

Laniv

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I;m gonna be honest, if Geno doesn't get in now he's done for. Literally had a decent selling remake of the game he's from, not much better than that honestly.
Yeah, it really is his last stand for Smash. If he doesn't get in now when he has so much in his favor, he's never happening.

... Now that I think about it, I could say the same thing about Ganondorf getting a unique moveset.

I am very curious why Geno is so popular among Smash fans. I loved Super Mario RPG but I never really had strong feelings about Geno as a character. Other similarly beloved RPG characters of the era like Crono don’t really get anywhere near the level of support for Smash. I imagine a lot of Smash fans are too young to remember his game. Geno does have the advantage of being part of the Mario universe but that actually makes him a bit less interesting to me since Smash already has so many Mario characters. Not that I’m at all opposed to seeing him in Smash. If he’d make a ton of people happy, that’s the most important thing. It’s just weird to me that he’s as popular as he is.
Because he's a puppet with a gun arm. Can't get cooler than that. It certainly helps that he was really useful in Mario RPG
 

Gengar84

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Yeah, it really is his last stand for Smash. If he doesn't get in now when he has so much in his favor, he's never happening.

... Now that I think about it, I could say the same thing about Ganondorf getting a unique moveset.


Because he's a puppet with a gun arm. Can't get cooler than that. It certainly helps that he was really useful in Mario RPG
Yeah, that’s a fair enough argument. Sometimes just being cool is enough. Some of my most wanted are primarily because I love their design and moveset potential. I doesn’t really have to be deeper than that. I almost never used Geno or Mallow because I really wanted to play as Bowser, Peach felt almost mandatory for her healing, and Mario actually was mandatory.
 

SPEN18

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The vast majority of the time, remakes don't get dedicated promotion thru a PC in Smash, especially for a decidedly non-principal character in a spinoff that already features Mario and served to fill in the back end of a console's lifecycle. In that respect, the significance of the remake to Geno's chances has been way overstated. Even his popularity seems overstated based on the available data, with his results both in Swamp's recent poll and in previous Ballot-era polling being certainly respectable but not scratching the top tier of options, which might be okay for a character who has other major reasons to be added and doesn't have his awkward third party ownership situation, but with it being about all Geno has to pin on himself it's pretty dire.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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The vast majority of the time, remakes don't get dedicated promotion thru a PC in Smash, especially for a decidedly non-principal character in a spinoff that already features Mario and served to fill in the back end of a console's lifecycle. In that respect, the significance of the remake to Geno's chances has been way overstated. Even his popularity seems overstated based on the available data, with his results both in Swamp's recent poll and in previous Ballot-era polling being certainly respectable but not scratching the top tier of options, which might be okay for a character who has other major reasons to be added and doesn't have his awkward third party ownership situation, but with it being about all Geno has to pin on himself it's pretty dire.
In other words, the vocal minority is very VERY loud.
 

chocolatejr9

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I am very curious why Geno is so popular among Smash fans. I loved Super Mario RPG but I never really had strong feelings about Geno as a character. Other similarly beloved RPG characters of the era like Crono don’t really get anywhere near the level of support for Smash. I imagine a lot of Smash fans are too young to remember his game. Geno does have the advantage of being part of the Mario universe but that actually makes him a bit less interesting to me since Smash already has so many Mario characters. Not that I’m at all opposed to seeing him in Smash. If he’d make a ton of people happy, that’s the most important thing. It’s just weird to me that he’s as popular as he is.
Might be a stretch, but maybe it's nostalgia? SMRPG was a lot of people's first RPG, and Geno in particular stuck out due to how different he was from your typical Mario character (he was seen as the token cool guy by many, even if it's not entirely accurate). People grew attached, and remember him fondly compared to others from that game: Mallow is arguably more important than Geno, yet only recently did he start getting talked about for Smash. Nostalgia can be a VERY powerful thing in this day and age, believe me.
 

Golden Icarus

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I think aesthetics go a long way with Geno. There just aren't a lot of characters in fiction that look like him. We see knights, mages, princesses, little animal creatures, robots. Magical puppets that turn into cannons is a pretty rare archetype.

I think Skull Kid has a similar x-factor. What other characters look and move like that?
In other words, the vocal minority is very VERY loud.
A vocal minority can go a long way...especially if the director likes the song that their singing.
 

Gengar84

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Might be a stretch, but maybe it's nostalgia? SMRPG was a lot of people's first RPG, and Geno in particular stuck out due to how different he was from your typical Mario character (he was seen as the token cool guy by many, even if it's not entirely accurate). People grew attached, and remember him fondly compared to others from that game: Mallow is arguably more important than Geno, yet only recently did he start getting talked about for Smash. Nostalgia can be a VERY powerful thing in this day and age, believe me.
It’s funny how different people can have such different preferences and opinions on what’s cool. For me, Bowser actually filled that “cool guy” spot and I loved being able to play as Mario’s main villain as part of his party. I’m one of the very few people that actually like Mallow’s design more than Geno’s. That said, I don’t dislike Geno and he did have a certain cool mysterious vibe to him so I can see how that appeals to people.
 
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HyperSomari64

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That's not what happened. He didn't "obligate" anything in any form of ultimatum.
He wanted to use the classic design and if he wasn't allowed to do so, he just would have dropped Pac-Man altogether.

Clearly he was simply allowed to do so without any issue.
What if Sakky went with the Ghostly Adventures Pac? Will Erin Matthews reprise the role unlike the two actual game? would there be a third season? /s
 

Louie G.

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Whether or not Geno's popularity is a fluke, Sakurai seems to believe he's "very popular" and has expressed as much. So I'm kinda just operating off that, I trust whatever metric he's operating on over anything else. Mind you, last he spoke on it directly was in Smash 4, but I don't doubt he had some perspective of ballot results when he spoke on it back then too (Nov 2015) and I believe those will still be in play moving forward (to some extent).

Obviously there are a lot of other things we can nitpick about his odds, but I honestly don't think a lack of "real" popularity is a problem or anything.
 
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Ivander

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Many people keep talking about how many Fire Emblem characters are going to get cut, but unfortunately for them, next year is Fire Emblem's prime time. Why? Cause it's 2025 next year and it will be Fire Emblem's 35th Anniversary. And not many people know this, but 2+0+2+5+3+5 = 17. And what is 17? A Prime number.
Hence why next year, along with it's 35th Anniversary, Book 9 for Fire Emblem Heroes and a new game announced in 2025, there will be no cut Fire Emblem characters for next Smash. And 35 Anniversaries+9 FEH Books+1 new game+No cut characters for Fire Emblem meaning 8 Fire Emblem Reps uncut=53, which is a Prime number. It's Fire Emblem's Prime time.

This has been "Your Useless Fact of the Day".
 
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Gengar84

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Whether or not Geno's popularity is a fluke, Sakurai seems to believe he's "very popular" and has expressed as much. So I'm kinda just operating off that, I trust whatever metric he's operating on over anything else. Mind you, last he spoke on it directly was in Smash 4, but I don't doubt he had some perspective of ballot results when he spoke on it back then too (Nov 2015) and I believe those will still be in play moving forward (to some extent).

Obviously there are a lot of other things we can pin on Geno and nitpick about his odds, but I honestly don't think a lack of "real" popularity is a problem or anything.
Oh, I don’t doubt he is legitimately popular within the Smash fanbase, it’s just kind of puzzling to me how he got so popular in the first place.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Many people keep talking about how many Fire Emblem characters are going to get cut, but unfortunately for them, next year is Fire Emblem's prime time. Why? Cause it's 2025 next year and it will be Fire Emblem's 35th Anniversary. And not many people know this, but 2+0+2+5+3+5 = 17. And what is 17? A Prime number.
Hence why next year, along with it's 35th Anniversary, Book 9 for Fire Emblem Heroes and a new game announced in 2025, there will be no cut Fire Emblem characters for next Smash. And 35 Anniversaries+9 FEH Books+1 new game+No cut characters for Fire Emblem meaning 8 Fire Emblem Reps uncut=53, which is a Prime number. It's Fire Emblem's Prime time.

This has been your useless fact of the day.
While I highly doubt we'll have no cuts, we will probably see yet another Fire Emblem DLC pick.

And I suppose Alear isn't out of the question either.
 

JCKirbs

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So.. do you think this is Geno's time?
Generally speaking, I still wonder if Geno would've been taken any more seriously as a potential candidate if Sakurai didn't mention that he wanted him at one point, because admittedly I'm still scratching my head at the possibility of him being chosen over the likes of numerous other core Square Enix characters/IPs... unless the fan-demand for Geno is that strong, and if that could be coupled with the added potential of having an equally, if not more unique moveset/style of gameplay.
 

SPEN18

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MI, USA
Many people keep talking about how many Fire Emblem characters are going to get cut, but unfortunately for them, next year is Fire Emblem's prime time. Why? Cause it's 2025 next year and it will be Fire Emblem's 35th Anniversary. And not many people know this, but 2+0+2+5+3+5 = 17. And what is 17? A Prime number.
Hence why next year, along with it's 35th Anniversary, Book 9 for Fire Emblem Heroes and a new game announced in 2025, there will be no cut Fire Emblem characters for next Smash. And 35 Anniversaries+9 FEH Books+1 new game+No cut characters for Fire Emblem meaning 8 Fire Emblem Reps uncut=53, which is a Prime number. It's Fire Emblem's Prime time.
also

1+7=8
5+3=8

= the number of FE reps currently

theory confirmed


/j
 
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