So what you're saying is, Smash 4 should only add one character? From the already total of 39 as according to Sakurai?
Sakurai has said to not expect as many characters being added this time. Let's say the entire Brawl roster was kept. Only 5 characters are added. Most fans would cause an uproar based on the fact that the main selling point of Super Smash Bros. is the characters. It was, and always has been. Not adding at least 10 characters would be asinine.
We already have 3 new characters, so assuming all of the Brawl roster is maintained, we're already at 42 overall. Every character from Brawl has good reason to be there, with very little if anything against their return. Not to mention, based on the fact that Brawl originally was planned to retain Mewtwo, Roy, Dr.Mario, and Toon Zelda, the roster (in this scenario would lose Sonic) would have totaled out at 42 total characters.
There are reasons why the fans want more characters. Because it is the MOST important part for advertising a game. Gameplay matters when we're playing it obviously, but if there aren't characters that people are drawn into the game with, then whats the point?
Here are some reasons why I myself expect hardly any cuts, if any at all:
1) Lucario will NOT be replaced by Mewtwo, considering they were planned to coexist in Brawl. They are not clones of each other either, as can be proven with a particular Youtube video.
2) Falco has been in the game since Melee, and has already differentiated himself from the other two Star Fox reps to an extent. While he is still similar, he can be differentiated more, as can other semi clones like Ganondorf, Lucas, etc...
3) Ness was already picked over Ninten in the original Smash Bros., which was arguably the only chance Ninten had at getting in. There shouldn't be any cuts from Mother because there isn't a reason to. Ness and Lucas are both important to the series, and represent 2/3 of the trilogy.
4) Fire Emblem has grown into an immensely popular series, and Ike is one of the most popular lords. Considering that Marth is not the mascot of the series, the argument that "They haven't appeared" is applicable to him as well. It doesn't work like that. Chrom being the newest lord of the game which saved the series, has incredible chances to be added.
5) Toon Link is going to likely return based off of the HD remake of Wind Waker, and the fact that Sakurai believes it is important for there to be 2 Links.
Being a clone of another character has nothing to do with a character being scrapped. Notice that both Dr. Mario and Roy were planned to be added, yet Falco, Ganondorf, and Toon Link (basically Young Link) were kept. Being a clone doesn't matter.
I'm sure there is more I could add, but I just don't feel like it.
By the way, i'm also one of those people who thinks Arena Ferox is suspiciously connected with Chrom. Come at me bro.