Shantae, the Half Genie Protector of Scuttle Town! (A Switch To A New WayForward)

[Schonberg]

Great, but what does it mean for those of us who don't speak Japanese?

From an incredibly rudimentary translation, it looks like either a Shantae special print or art collection; the important part being that it’s in Japan, further showing that Shantae’s getting traction there!

 

[TDDolphin]

Sweet dreams are made of these.

Who am I to disagree?

 

[meleebrawler]

While I couldn't find the last nugget I needed for 100% after spending a couple of hours searching for it, I finally finished Seven Sirens. I thought it was a pretty fun time and I think it definitely takes some steps in the right direction by returning to a proper Metroidvania style and revamping how transformations work, but the nonexistent difficulty and somewhat bland level design hold it back from being great, IMO. I also think hiding a bunch of the collectibles behind the Seer ability was a really dumb decision.

I mean, when you get down to it, that reliance on the Seer dance for hidden, semi-useless collectibles for the sake of completion percentage is not that different from Power Bombing every room in 2D Metroids for more missile expansions than you would humanly need. You can also artificially make the game harder by doing things like not turning in any Heart Squids, refraining from eating any food, not equipping cards etc.

Lots of metroidvanias can have their difficulty split wide open once your arsenal builds up. The ones that don't tend to be unrelentingly brutal from start to finish.

 

[Morning Raven]

Saying hi, and Seven Sirens has been lots of fun (finally got my physical copy). Since all these other lists have been talked about recently, I thought I'd show the one leak with the long list of potential candidates for easier viewing. (updated with current standings and alphabetized). Idk what nickname it's going by but this is the list with Shantae in it.

• Joker (starting since he’s already in)
• Amaterasu
• Arthur
• Bandana Waddle Dee
• Banjo
• Bill Rizer
• Byleth
• Captain Toad
• Chun-Li
• Crash
• Crono
• Doom Slayer
• Erdrick
• Ezio
• Flynn (SMTIV)
• Heihachi
• Jibanyan
• Lana
• Lara Croft (indirectly deconfirmed)
• Leon S. Kennedy
• Linkle
• Lloyd
• Lora (Torna)
• Luminary
• Monster Hunter
• Phoenix Wright
• Porky
• Professor Layton
• Rayman
• Rex
• Ryu Hayabusa
• Sephiroth
• Shantae
• Sora
• Spyro
• Steve
• Terra (FFVI) (indirectly deconfirmed)
• Terry Bogard
• Quote
• Yu
• Yuri (Tales of Vesperia)

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

Saying hi, and Seven Sirens has been lots of fun (finally got my physical copy). Since all these other lists have been talked about recently, I thought I'd show the one leak with the long list of potential candidates for easier viewing. (updated with current standings and alphabetized). Idk what nickname it's going by but this is the list with Shantae in it.

• Joker (starting since he’s already in)
• Amaterasu
• Arthur
• Bandana Waddle Dee
• Banjo
• Bill Rizer
• Byleth
• Captain Toad
• Chun-Li
• Crash
• Crono
• Doom Slayer
• Erdrick
• Ezio
• Flynn (SMTIV)
• Heihachi
• Jibanyan
• Lana
• Lara Croft (indirectly deconfirmed)
• Leon S. Kennedy
• Linkle
• Lloyd
• Lora (Torna)
• Luminary
• Monster Hunter
• Phoenix Wright
• Porky
• Professor Layton
• Rayman
• Rex
• Ryu Hayabusa
• Sephiroth
• Shantae
• Sora
• Spyro
• Steve
• Terra (FFVI) (indirectly deconfirmed)
• Terry Bogard
• Quote
• Yu
• Yuri (Tales of Vesperia)

Any specific reason this one can be considered legit? I'm still distrustful of its veracity even if it did get right.

 

[Schonberg]

Any specific reason this one can be considered legit? I'm still distrustful of its veracity even if it did get right.

There’s really no reason to consider this any more likely than any other “leak” that springs up. The only thing going for it is that it has predicted every character... with a few caveats.

1: There are 40 characters on the list. That gives whoever wrote this list a LOT of wiggle room if it’s made up. While there are definitely some interesting pulls like Sephiroth and Terry long before these characters were speculated, they aren’t SO unlikely as to seem impossible. Terry is a fighting game icon and some SNK games appeared early on Switch’s eShop, and Sephiroth was one of the characters passed around as one of the ‘Seven Squares’, 7 character names Vergeben said were floating around as the potential FP1 Square Enix rep.

2: The lack of an ARMS rep on the list. The main defense of this missing is that ARMS may have been decided on as a DLC rep in relation to the Party Crash Bash, which started right as Smash announced its first wave of DLC in November 2018, and continued for 8 months which would have put its results too late for FP1, but not FP2. And considering Min Min was the victor, and the runner up Ninjara was name dropped by Sakurai as the other character he considered for playable, its all but outright confirmed the Party Crash Bash determined who was coming to smash.

In short, it’s as valid as any other leak out there - that is to say, not at all but it has a few interesting things behind it.

 

[Morning Raven]

Any specific reason this one can be considered legit? I'm still distrustful of its veracity even if it did get right.

Basically Schonberg's comments, at least on validity, which is about even with any others.

There’s really no reason to consider this any more likely than any other “leak” that springs up. The only thing going for it is that it has predicted every character... with a few caveats.

1: There are 40 characters on the list. That gives whoever wrote this list a LOT of wiggle room if it’s made up. While there are definitely some interesting pulls like Sephiroth and Terry long before these characters were speculated, they aren’t SO unlikely as to seem impossible. Terry is a fighting game icon and some SNK games appeared early on Switch’s eShop, and Sephiroth was one of the characters passed around as one of the ‘Seven Squares’, 7 character names Vergeben said were floating around as the potential FP1 Square Enix rep.

2: The lack of an ARMS rep on the list. The main defense of this missing is that ARMS may have been decided on as a DLC rep in relation to the Party Crash Bash, which started right as Smash announced its first wave of DLC in November 2018, and continued for 8 months which would have put its results too late for FP1, but not FP2. And considering Min Min was the victor, and the runner up Ninjara was name dropped by Sakurai as the other character he considered for playable, its all but outright confirmed the Party Crash Bash determined who was coming to smash.

In short, it’s as valid as any other leak out there - that is to say, not at all but it has a few interesting things behind it.

I more so am adding it because it hasn't been locked dead yet, (is relevant to Shantae), and it'd be useful to know which characters are ones we should be looking out for when comparing to other leaks. And this one is the longest list, so it's the better one to write down.

 

[TDDolphin]

There’s really no reason to consider this any more likely than any other “leak” that springs up. The only thing going for it is that it has predicted every character... with a few caveats.

1: There are 40 characters on the list. That gives whoever wrote this list a LOT of wiggle room if it’s made up. While there are definitely some interesting pulls like Sephiroth and Terry long before these characters were speculated, they aren’t SO unlikely as to seem impossible. Terry is a fighting game icon and some SNK games appeared early on Switch’s eShop, and Sephiroth was one of the characters passed around as one of the ‘Seven Squares’, 7 character names Vergeben said were floating around as the potential FP1 Square Enix rep.

2: The lack of an ARMS rep on the list. The main defense of this missing is that ARMS may have been decided on as a DLC rep in relation to the Party Crash Bash, which started right as Smash announced its first wave of DLC in November 2018, and continued for 8 months which would have put its results too late for FP1, but not FP2. And considering Min Min was the victor, and the runner up Ninjara was name dropped by Sakurai as the other character he considered for playable, its all but outright confirmed the Party Crash Bash determined who was coming to smash.

In short, it’s as valid as any other leak out there - that is to say, not at all but it has a few interesting things behind it.

Not to mention even if this list leak is legit, what're the odds that Shantae is chosen as one of the 3 FP2 spots out of all of the remaining characters on this list? They could choose Lloyd, or Ryu, or Rex, Crash or Bandana Dee. And that's coming from someone who wants Shantae playable...

 

[meleebrawler]

Shouldn't the sole fact there's more characters on that list than we're actually getting alone disqualifies this?

 

[Shinuto]

I believe we can also get rid of characters like Yu and Flynn, just doesn seem likely given have Joker and unlike say Sephiroth arent some massive iconic character (on his scale mind you) Bill Rizer I dont see happening, Bandanna Dee and Captain Toad are just kinda "base game addition" type characters you know? Like even Byleth I can say "Main protag of the newest entry in Fire Emblem, with BWD is just ""the Toad of Kirby" and Captain Toad is a side character with some prominence in his own spinoff.

In MY opinion this is what the list to me should be like with only real potential characters left behind.


Crash
Phoenix Wright
Professor Layton
Rayman
Rex
Ryu Hayabusa
Shantae

Hell I'll go down the whole list and explain every character if anyone wants me to.

 

[TDDolphin]

I believe we can also get rid of characters like Yu and Flynn, just doesn seem likely given have Joker and unlike say Sephiroth arent some massive iconic character (on his scale mind you) Bill Rizer I dont see happening, Bandanna Dee and Captain Toad are just kinda "base game addition" type characters you know? Like even Byleth I can say "Main protag of the newest entry in Fire Emblem, with BWD is just ""the Toad of Kirby" and Captain Toad is a side character with some prominence in his own spinoff.

In MY opinion this is what the list to me should be like with only real potential characters left behind.


Crash
Phoenix Wright
Professor Layton
Rayman
Rex
Ryu Hayabusa
Shantae

Hell I'll go down the whole list and explain every character if anyone wants me to.

Uhhh wouldn't that be a ton of writing though? You don't have to go that far...

 

[Schonberg]

Shouldn't the sole fact there's more characters on that list than we're actually getting alone disqualifies this?

Not necessarily; the idea is that this “leak” shows the shortlist Nintendo provided to Sakurai to choose the fighters pass DLC characters. There’s a misconception that Nintendo “chose” the characters for the DLC, when Sakurai’s interviews have stated this is closer to what the method was - Nintendo tossed him a bunch of ideas and he chose the ones to pursue.

 

[Schonberg]

Uhhh wouldn't that be a ton of writing though? You don't have to go that far...

I’ll give it a shot.

Spoiler: Long post about a very unlikely leak within

Grouped by likelihood in no particular order.

Most Possible:

• Bandana Dee - massive Japan popularity
• Chun Li - massive icon of the industry as the “First Lady of fighting games”
• Crash - big resurgence in popularity since the N Sane trilogy and new game
• Lloyd Irving - VERY popular character in Japan and still very popular overseas, requested enough to get recognized alongside the likes of K Rool and Inklings with the Smash 4 DLC Mii costume crowd
• Phoenix Wright - Capcom leaks show upcoming AA collections and the long awaited western release of Dai Gyakuten Saiban duology and AA7, constant Nintendo system presence yet never appeared in Smash
• Rayman - already acknowledged by smash, was worried about bad blood with Ubisoft over Rayman Legends but Mario + Rabbids should put that to rest, Rabbids already Mii’d so no worries about them
• Rex - XB2 just missed the base game, like ARMS... and now we have ARMS.
• Shantae - one of the longest lasting indie characters, already acknowledged by Smash, all her games are on the switch for crosspromotion, Nintendo clearly acknowledges Wayforward as a longtime partner (promoting Shantae on eShop, the ‘Bakugan deception’ of using wayforward’s name to build hype for a partner direct, etc.)

Possible:

• Arthur - 35th GnG anniversary, but not the biggest Capcom name anymore
• Bill Rizer - Contra isnt Konami’s biggest name anymore but it’s still an icon
• Captain Toad - less popular in Japan than Waddle Dee but actually had his own game
• Jibanyan - Popular in Japan but Level 5 is having some... issues lately
• Lora - less likely than Rex as he was the base game main character
• Porky - Missing spirit and missing boss, but Mother 4 is never happening and Mother 3 is never getting a port
• Professor Layton - See Jibanyan
• Ryu Hayabusa - He’s become a speculation favorite since that one leak that DIDNT come true and then everyone copied it, but I just don’t feel he’s THAT likely
• Spyro - hasn’t gotten the same degree of followup as Crash’s revival but he’s still in there
• Quote - Cave Story is always around but Cave Story 2 never does set it back potentially
• Yu - Atlus’ favorite cash cow

Less likely:

• Amaterasu - Possible, but Capcom is doing less and less with their Clover Studioo created characters every year (cough cough MVCI)
• Flynn - less popular than Yu
• Lana - one-off spinoff character
• Linkle - one-off spinoff character
• Monster Hunter - Rathalos being in the whole time kinda takes the wind out of their sails, plus the hunter characters of monster Hunter aren’t the focus of the game, the monsters are; so having Rathalos in is already pretty solid representation of their focus
• Yuri - less popular than Lloyd

Less likely because of Square Enix double dipping already:

• Crono
• Lara Croft
  Sora
• Terra

“Deconfirmed”:

• Doomslayer - Id software stated they haven’t spoken with Nintendo about Smash DLC
• Ezio - Mii
• Heihachi - Mii
• Leon Kennedy - Post launch spirit

 

[SebTheGamer]

Re

I’ll give it a shot.

Spoiler: Long post about a very unlikely leak within

Grouped by likelihood in no particular order.

Most Possible:

• Bandana Dee - massive Japan popularity
• Chun Li - massive icon of the industry as the “First Lady of fighting games”
• Crash - big resurgence in popularity since the N Sane trilogy and new game
• Lloyd Irving - VERY popular character in Japan and still very popular overseas, requested enough to get recognized alongside the likes of K Rool and Inklings with the Smash 4 DLC Mii costume crowd
• Phoenix Wright - Capcom leaks show upcoming AA collections and the long awaited western release of Dai Gyakuten Saiban duology and AA7, constant Nintendo system presence yet never appeared in Smash
• Rayman - already acknowledged by smash, was worried about bad blood with Ubisoft over Rayman Legends but Mario + Rabbids should put that to rest, Rabbids already Mii’d so no worries about them
• Rex - XB2 just missed the base game, like ARMS... and now we have ARMS.
• Shantae - one of the longest lasting indie characters, already acknowledged by Smash, all her games are on the switch for crosspromotion, Nintendo clearly acknowledges Wayforward as a longtime partner (promoting Shantae on eShop, the ‘Bakugan deception’ of using wayforward’s name to build hype for a partner direct, etc.)

Possible:

• Arthur - 35th GnG anniversary, but not the biggest Capcom name anymore
• Bill Rizer - Contra isnt Konami’s biggest name anymore but it’s still an icon
• Captain Toad - less popular in Japan than Waddle Dee but actually had his own game
• Jibanyan - Popular in Japan but Level 5 is having some... issues lately
• Lora - less likely than Rex as he was the base game main character
• Porky - Missing spirit and missing boss, but Mother 4 is never happening and Mother 3 is never getting a port
• Professor Layton - See Jibanyan
• Ryu Hayabusa - He’s become a speculation favorite since that one leak that DIDNT come true and then everyone copied it, but I just don’t feel he’s THAT likely
• Spyro - hasn’t gotten the same degree of followup as Crash’s revival but he’s still in there
• Quote - Cave Story is always around but Cave Story 2 never does set it back potentially
• Yu - Atlus’ favorite cash cow

Less likely:

• Amaterasu - Possible, but Capcom is doing less and less with their Clover Studioo created characters every year (cough cough MVCI)
• Flynn - less popular than Yu
• Lana - one-off spinoff character
• Linkle - one-off spinoff character
• Monster Hunter - Rathalos being in the whole time kinda takes the wind out of their sails, plus the hunter characters of monster Hunter aren’t the focus of the game, the monsters are; so having Rathalos in is already pretty solid representation of their focus
• Yuri - less popular than Lloyd

Less likely because of Square Enix double dipping already:

• Crono
• Lara Croft
  Sora
• Terra

“Deconfirmed”:

• Doomslayer - Id software stated they haven’t spoken with Nintendo about Smash DLC
• Ezio - Mii
• Heihachi - Mii
• Leon Kennedy - Post launch spirit

Really good speculation man. That reminds me and you probably don’t know what I’m going to ask but why you think Geno never makes into Smash? I’m really sure there’s a big reason because I know there’s a reason why but I completely forgot about why Geno didn’t make it.

 

[Inoj]

So Shantae, whose name is the same in Japan as it is in English, and has no complicated legal matters surrounding what language she speaks, should not be affected at all by anything.

This made me think of how Shantae's name is pronounced. (Using the Finnish version of the Latin alphabet here)

English: Shaantei
Japanese: Shanti

Not sure I have a point here. Just popped into my head.

Who am I to disagree?

I travel the world and the seven seas.

Hell I'll go down the whole list and explain every character if anyone wants me to.

Pursue this course of action you gentleman (You know the rest)

 

[Schonberg]

Re

Really good speculation man. That reminds me and you probably don’t know what I’m going to ask but why you think Geno never makes into Smash? I’m really sure there’s a big reason because I know there’s a reason why but I completely forgot about why Geno didn’t make it.

Honestly, it’s kind of a mix of factors. Yes, he has fan support from some diehard fans... but even then, he has a LOT going against him. He’s a side character in a single game owned by a third party company. Side characters are one thing, third party is one thing, but putting them together kind of compounds the difficulty in getting him in.

Neither Square nor Nintendo are really using him so advertising isn’t exactly big in his favor. Moveset potential, while certainly there, is pretty broad since so many characters have interesting moves they can use, so that’s also not really enough to put him ahead.

But really, the bottom line is this. Let’s assume both Nintendo and Square have a word with who from Square becomes a character.

If they pick Geno, they’ll make a small subset of diehard fans INCREDIBLY happy, and maybe even make some new fans out of people who will learn about the character and the game through smash.

...Or, they could make a BIG subset of diehard fans INCREDIBLY happy by putting in Cloud and Sephiroth, two of the JRPG genre’s biggest icons that are so recognizable even people who haven’t played their games know who they are, and Dragon Quest, arguably the biggest JRPG series in Japan with a massive history and huge importance to the history of games.

It’s a sad case of “Square only gets to have this many characters in the game to both please their fans and draw attention of smash fans to their games, and Nintendo uses the DLC to draw new people’s attention to smash; yes they’d make the existing fans super happy if they added Geno... but they’d likely make a LOT more people happy, including some potential new fans, if they picked these bigger guys”.

Im not saying it’ll never happen, and I honestly want to see Geno come back either in Smash or just to bring him back to the Mario RPG setting. It’s just that there are some very clear reasons why Square would want other characters of theirs in Smash before him. And most of it is just business and the number of fans they can please at once.

 

[SebTheGamer]

Honestly, it’s kind of a mix of factors. Yes, he has fan support from some diehard fans... but even then, he has a LOT going against him. He’s a side character in a single game owned by a third party company. Side characters are one thing, third party is one thing, but putting them together kind of compounds the difficulty in getting him in.

Neither Square nor Nintendo are really using him so advertising isn’t exactly big in his favor. Moveset potential, while certainly there, is pretty broad since so many characters have interesting moves they can use, so that’s also not really enough to put him ahead.

But really, the bottom line is this. Let’s assume both Nintendo and Square have a word with who from Square becomes a character.

If they pick Geno, they’ll make a small subset of diehard fans INCREDIBLY happy, and maybe even make some new fans out of people who will learn about the character and the game through smash.

...Or, they could make a BIG subset of diehard fans INCREDIBLY happy by putting in Cloud and Sephiroth, two of the JRPG genre’s biggest icons that are so recognizable even people who haven’t played their games know who they are, and Dragon Quest, arguably the biggest JRPG series in Japan with a massive history and huge importance to the history of games.

It’s a sad case of “Square only gets to have this many characters in the game to both please their fans and draw attention of smash fans to their games, and Nintendo uses the DLC to draw new people’s attention to smash; yes they’d make the existing fans super happy if they added Geno... but they’d likely make a LOT more people happy, including some potential new fans, if they picked these bigger guys”.

Im not saying it’ll never happen, and I honestly want to see Geno come back either in Smash or just to bring him back to the Mario RPG setting. It’s just that there are some very clear reasons why Square would want other characters of theirs in Smash before him. And most of it is just business and the number of fans they can please at once.

That is actually something. Thank you for all these answers. I’ll try to memorised them for knowing the reasons why Geno never made it but honestly I’m not that good at remembering anything. I know some to keep that in mind but sometimes I forget things quickly. Anyway thank you for that. I think I got it.

 

[MeteoRain]

There’s really no reason to consider this any more likely than any other “leak” that springs up. The only thing going for it is that it has predicted every character... with a few caveats.

1: There are 40 characters on the list. That gives whoever wrote this list a LOT of wiggle room if it’s made up. While there are definitely some interesting pulls like Sephiroth and Terry long before these characters were speculated, they aren’t SO unlikely as to seem impossible. Terry is a fighting game icon and some SNK games appeared early on Switch’s eShop, and Sephiroth was one of the characters passed around as one of the ‘Seven Squares’, 7 character names Vergeben said were floating around as the potential FP1 Square Enix rep.

2: The lack of an ARMS rep on the list. The main defense of this missing is that ARMS may have been decided on as a DLC rep in relation to the Party Crash Bash, which started right as Smash announced its first wave of DLC in November 2018, and continued for 8 months which would have put its results too late for FP1, but not FP2. And considering Min Min was the victor, and the runner up Ninjara was name dropped by Sakurai as the other character he considered for playable, its all but outright confirmed the Party Crash Bash determined who was coming to smash.

In short, it’s as valid as any other leak out there - that is to say, not at all but it has a few interesting things behind it.

There's more interesting things than that.

It seems to hold "No Assists" to heart. Down to a fault. Which might explain the lack of an ARMS character, what with the poster boy being an Assist. The list might have been more expansive but narrowed down by personal logic.

Also for a list of 40 characters, there's a number of weird exclusions:

Captain Toad, but no Waluigi or Geno

Luminary, Erdrick, Sephiroth, Sora and Crono, but leaves out Slime and Geno who complete the Seven Squares in favor of Lara Croft.

Linkle and Lana, and no other Zelda characters. Yikes.

Leon, no Jill

Shantae and Quote, no Shovel Knight or Undertale character

Porky, no Sylux or Adeleine

It has Crash which makes total sense on his own, but no other Activision characters other than Spyro?

These are just off the top of my head. For a list of 40ish characters, it's hardly fool proof. The fact it guessed most characters, including Terry, is sort of mind boggling.

 

[Comedic Comrade]

All of this discussion combined is why I am clinging onto this list until it is outright debunked.

 

[MajestyIndigo]

Even if all the remaining characters end up being part of this (broad) list, we'll never actually know wether it had true insider info or if it was just lucky guesses.

If it turned out to be real I'd be down for Shantae, Crash/Coco and Leon/Jill !

 

[Jorichi]

This list looks to me like a good educated guess rather than a leak.

Anyone keeping his eyes and ears open will know that Sakurai was/is a big fan of Fatal Fury and King of Fighters. And that even Smash was partially inspired by it. That makes Terry the obvious choice.
And Leon probably being picked over Jill because of the hit that RE4 was.
Shantae and Quote likely being picked over Shovel Knight and Undertale for having longer standing names.
And given by how many names are on there you can get away with throwing some weird and out there characters in.

In general it's just a good list to mull over. Though I feel we might get a curve-ball from Sakurai regardless, it's what he does best after all.

 

[Comedic Comrade]

I don't think Quote is gonna get into Smash due to the fact that he only has one game and the fact that Nicalis has been embroiled in controversy. They are easily the worst indie company of all time.

On the other hand, if this game was to have a first person shooter rep (which is unlikely outside of this hypothetical situation), who would it be? In my opinion, it should be Tachanka from Rainbow Six: Siege. Think about it. Tachanka is the Min-Min of RS:S. Plus the game is really popular in Japan. Sure, there may be some difficulty in getting a character associated with a real life organisation (in this case, the Russian Spetsnaz), but hey, at least it can work.

 

[TDDolphin]

I’ll give it a shot.

Spoiler: Long post about a very unlikely leak within

Grouped by likelihood in no particular order.

Most Possible:

• Bandana Dee - massive Japan popularity
• Chun Li - massive icon of the industry as the “First Lady of fighting games”
• Crash - big resurgence in popularity since the N Sane trilogy and new game
• Lloyd Irving - VERY popular character in Japan and still very popular overseas, requested enough to get recognized alongside the likes of K Rool and Inklings with the Smash 4 DLC Mii costume crowd
• Phoenix Wright - Capcom leaks show upcoming AA collections and the long awaited western release of Dai Gyakuten Saiban duology and AA7, constant Nintendo system presence yet never appeared in Smash
• Rayman - already acknowledged by smash, was worried about bad blood with Ubisoft over Rayman Legends but Mario + Rabbids should put that to rest, Rabbids already Mii’d so no worries about them
• Rex - XB2 just missed the base game, like ARMS... and now we have ARMS.
• Shantae - one of the longest lasting indie characters, already acknowledged by Smash, all her games are on the switch for crosspromotion, Nintendo clearly acknowledges Wayforward as a longtime partner (promoting Shantae on eShop, the ‘Bakugan deception’ of using wayforward’s name to build hype for a partner direct, etc.)

Possible:

• Arthur - 35th GnG anniversary, but not the biggest Capcom name anymore
• Bill Rizer - Contra isnt Konami’s biggest name anymore but it’s still an icon
• Captain Toad - less popular in Japan than Waddle Dee but actually had his own game
• Jibanyan - Popular in Japan but Level 5 is having some... issues lately
• Lora - less likely than Rex as he was the base game main character
• Porky - Missing spirit and missing boss, but Mother 4 is never happening and Mother 3 is never getting a port
• Professor Layton - See Jibanyan
• Ryu Hayabusa - He’s become a speculation favorite since that one leak that DIDNT come true and then everyone copied it, but I just don’t feel he’s THAT likely
• Spyro - hasn’t gotten the same degree of followup as Crash’s revival but he’s still in there
• Quote - Cave Story is always around but Cave Story 2 never does set it back potentially
• Yu - Atlus’ favorite cash cow

Less likely:

• Amaterasu - Possible, but Capcom is doing less and less with their Clover Studioo created characters every year (cough cough MVCI)
• Flynn - less popular than Yu
• Lana - one-off spinoff character
• Linkle - one-off spinoff character
• Monster Hunter - Rathalos being in the whole time kinda takes the wind out of their sails, plus the hunter characters of monster Hunter aren’t the focus of the game, the monsters are; so having Rathalos in is already pretty solid representation of their focus
• Yuri - less popular than Lloyd

Less likely because of Square Enix double dipping already:

• Crono
• Lara Croft
  Sora
• Terra

“Deconfirmed”:

• Doomslayer - Id software stated they haven’t spoken with Nintendo about Smash DLC
• Ezio - Mii
• Heihachi - Mii
• Leon Kennedy - Post launch spirit

Wow, you did it! XD

These are nice and well thought-out for the most part. The only one that I feel is more likely than you think is Ryu Hayabusa. I get that he's been speculated a lot mainly because of some of the more famous leaks that have come out, but I honestly think that Nintendo and Koei Tecmo's working relationship has been too good over the last several years for it to not lead to Ryu coming to Smash Ultimate. Just think, Koei Tecmo has helped Nintendo develop Hyrule Warriors, Fire Emblem Warriors, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Fire Emblem: Three Houses and Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity, they've ported several other games from the Warriors and Atelier series to the Switch, The 2 co-own the Fatal Frame series, which is already represented in Smash Ultimate with Yuri Kozukata as an Assist Trophy and a few spirits, and the classic Ninja Gaiden games are considered by many people retro 3rd-Party Nintendo classics alongside Mega Man and Castlevania (both of which now have playable representation in Smash). Not to mention the leaked Ninja Gaiden Sigma Trilogy for Switch/PS4 supposedly coming in March, which is around the time that Challenger 9 is likely to be revealed.

As far as other Koei Tecmo characters go, Ryza's already been disconfirmed, a Warriors, Nioh or Fatal Frame rep seems unlikely, and Kasumi... well, despite Yohei Shimbori (The Diector of Dead or Alive 5 and 6) saying in a foreign interview that he would prefer Kasumi being in Smash Ultimate (as would myself honestly), the whole "Smash is for good boys and girls" joke kinda prevents her inclusion... I mean, unless they go with her DOA5 Night Sakura outfit. Ryu though, is just too iconic a character to not be the Koei Tecmo representative of Smash Ultimate's roster. Plus, because of the relationship bewteen Nintendo and Koei Tecmo, Ryu could be the Terry of Fighter Pass 2 and come with a ton of music from Ninja Gaiden (both classic and modern), Dead or Alive, and Fatal Frame (Though this isn't guaranteed, I suppose).

 

[zferolie]

Wow, you did it! XD

These are nice and well thought-out for the most part. The only one that I feel is more likely than you think is Ryu Hayabusa. I get that he's been speculated a lot mainly because of some of the more famous leaks that have come out, but I honestly think that Nintendo and Koei Tecmo's working relationship has been too good over the last several years for it to not lead to Ryu coming to Smash Ultimate. Just think, Koei Tecmo has helped Nintendo develop Hyrule Warriors, Fire Emblem Warriors, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Fire Emblem: Three Houses and Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity, they've ported several other games from the Warriors and Atelier series to the Switch, The 2 co-own the Fatal Frame series, which is already represented in Smash Ultimate with Yuri Kozukata as an Assist Trophy and a few spirits, and the classic Ninja Gaiden games are considered by many people retro 3rd-Party Nintendo classics alongside Mega Man and Castlevania (both of which now have playable representation in Smash). Not to mention the leaked Ninja Gaiden Sigma Trilogy for Switch/PS4 supposedly coming in March, which is around the time that Challenger 9 is likely to be revealed.

As far as other Koei Tecmo characters go, Ryza's already been disconfirmed, a Warriors, Nioh or Fatal Frame rep seems unlikely, and Kasumi... well, despite Yohei Shimbori (The Diector of Dead or Alive 5 and 6) saying in a foreign interview that he would prefer Kasumi being in Smash Ultimate (as would myself honestly), the whole "Smash is for good boys and girls" joke kinda prevents her inclusion... I mean, unless they go with her DOA5 Night Sakura outfit. Ryu though, is just too iconic a character to not be the Koei Tecmo representative of Smash Ultimate's roster. Plus, because of the relationship bewteen Nintendo and Koei Tecmo, Ryu could be the Terry of Fighter Pass 2 and come with a ton of music from Ninja Gaiden (both classic and modern), Dead or Alive, and Fatal Frame (Though this isn't guaranteed, I suppose).

When was Ryza deconfirmed? never saw that. I honestly want her more then Ryu

 

[Comedic Comrade]

Blocked Content has degraded so much that he is using fan art as speculation fuel. Wow.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

youtu.be

Plus if you look at the replies in the first comment, there's a debate about KOS MOS and there's a separate comment saying a leak was posted two hours after Steve was revealed and it only got Sephiroth right so far, both of which are likely referring to the 5chan leak we saw earlier.

 

[TDDolphin]

When was Ryza deconfirmed? never saw that. I honestly want her more then Ryu

There was an interview with Junzo Hosoi and Nintenderos 2 months ago where he said "I don't think we're a part of Nintendo's plans. But if they asked us if we would like to see Ryza included, I think the whole development team would respond with a big "YES".". So... yeah. I wouldn't mind Atelier Ryza being a Spirit Event though.

 

[TDDolphin]

Blocked Content has degraded so much that he is using fan art as speculation fuel. Wow.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

youtu.be

Plus if you look at the replies in the first comment, there's a debate about KOS MOS and there's a separate comment saying a leak was posted two hours after Steve was revealed and it only got Sephiroth right so far, both of which are likely referring to the 5chan leak we saw earlier.

Annnd that's why I don't pay any kind of attention to his videos. He just comes across as desperate for ad revenue that he'll talk about ANYTHING Smash-related no matter how far-fetched it sounds.

 

[Schonberg]

There was an interview with Junzo Hosoi and Nintenderos 2 months ago where he said "I don't think we're a part of Nintendo's plans. But if they asked us if we would like to see Ryza included, I think the whole development team would respond with a big "YES".". So... yeah. I wouldn't mind Atelier Ryza being a Spirit Event though.

See, this is where the gray area of what you can and can’t say when under legal obligations to do so make speculation (or ‘deconfirming’ to be more specific) tricky.

For example, I think Doomslayer is deconfirmed because the language used by Id software is pretty cut and dry, with not a lot of wiggle room.

“So we have great people over there but it’s one of those things where it’s like, ‘Wouldn’t it be cool?’ But it’s never gone anywhere serious.”

That seems pretty certain.

But then look at Junzo Hosoi. While the translation makes it impossible to know EXACTLY how vague he’s being, he never outright says something like “we AREN’T in Nintendo’s plans” or “We’ve never spoken with them about it”. Compare this to Grant Kirkhope’s tweet people like to point to about NDA’s, all he says is “I wouldn’t hold my breath if I were you...”, a non-answer in terms of legality.

I’m not so sure Ryza is 100% out of it, buuuut still wouldn’t put her in my most likely.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

Everything KT is in a grey area. What bugs me the most is that there isn't any spirit content for Hyrule Warriors or FE Warriors, when other Nintendo collab games like SMRPG and Kingdom Battle do.

Also, the rumor of a retro Ninja Gaiden project occasionally pops up, but nothing much came out of it so far.

By the way, it's HGH's 4th today.

Happy 4th anniversary to the release of Shantae: Half-Genie Hero! Shantae's first HD adventure launched this day in 2016, and it wouldn't have been possible without the help from all of our backers and supporters! Thanks for allowing us to dance through the danger! pic.twitter.com/0WdH5QASME

— WayForward (@WayForward) December 20, 2020

Not necessarily; the idea is that this “leak” shows the shortlist Nintendo provided to Sakurai to choose the fighters pass DLC characters. There’s a misconception that Nintendo “chose” the characters for the DLC, when Sakurai’s interviews have stated this is closer to what the method was - Nintendo tossed him a bunch of ideas and he chose the ones to pursue.

Meanwhile, Sak has yet to turn down a character they suggested outright. He would only do so if the character can't seem to work mechanically, or he hasn't come up with a satisfactory moveset yet. He came the closest to that with , but he pulled through for him even then. Granted, that one is the only one we know of that was directly requested by an executive, so that may be an outlier.

My two cents on the Geno situation is, they'll only pay attention to him if enough characters from SE get in first.

In any case, if FP2 sales are good enough to persuade Nintendo/Sak to have at it with one more go, we could allegedly see a few more characters from that shortlist pop up at some point (assuming that thing is even real at all), if Echoes aren't on the table.

I don't think Quote is gonna get into Smash due to the fact that he only has one game and the fact that Nicalis has been embroiled in controversy. They are easily the worst indie company of all time.

On the other hand, if this game was to have a first person shooter rep (which is unlikely outside of this hypothetical situation), who would it be? In my opinion, it should be Tachanka from Rainbow Six: Siege. Think about it. Tachanka is the Min-Min of RS:S. Plus the game is really popular in Japan. Sure, there may be some difficulty in getting a character associated with a real life organisation (in this case, the Russian Spetsnaz), but hey, at least it can work.

Don't forget that Pixel is a rather notorious recluse, and he's moved on from CS years ago.

Also, don't hold your breath on anything related to Tom Clancy, that falls under "licensed" territory, even if a character is made for that type of game (the original Rainbow Six was based on the novel of the same name).

 

[Comedic Comrade]

Don't forget that Pixel is a rather notorious recluse, and he's moved on from CS years ago.

Yup. With Quote being unlikely for Smash, Shantae is the only indie on the list to pick, and I am sure Masahiro Sakurai would love to cap off the indie representation in this game by adding her as Smash's first indie rep.

Also, don't hold your breath on anything related to Tom Clancy, that falls under "licensed" territory, even if a character is made for that type of game (the original Rainbow Six was based on the novel of the same name).

Oh, forgot that RS is based on a novel.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

This list looks to me like a good educated guess rather than a leak.

Anyone keeping his eyes and ears open will know that Sakurai was/is a big fan of Fatal Fury and King of Fighters. And that even Smash was partially inspired by it. That makes Terry the obvious choice.
And Leon probably being picked over Jill because of the hit that RE4 was.
Shantae and Quote likely being picked over Shovel Knight and Undertale for having longer standing names.
And given by how many names are on there you can get away with throwing some weird and out there characters in.

In general it's just a good list to mull over. Though I feel we might get a curve-ball from Sakurai regardless, it's what he does best after all.

That sounds right. The "no assists" bit in particular is educated, since it's unlikely that they'd pick anyone that already has a 3D model in Ultimate itself.

That last statement of yours is what I keep in the back of my mind, since the final character in particular could be someone that isn't in the list at all/is (almost) completely overlooked as a possibility, especially if it's an obscure vintage character.

 

[LaBeteNoire]

I will give that list "leak" a nod with it not including Geno. If the leak is fake, then not including Geno is a risky move because including him would get your leak more traffic. Also considering how many people were predicting Geno, not including him could have put an expiration date on your leak.

Not to say it's legit, just to say that if it's fake the leak maker made a risky choice most wouldn't and it paid off. So that's pretty good luck right there.

I will say that since we never got word on how many characters Nintendo offered to Sakurai, that we can't rule out a large sampling like that. And again, the bigger the list, the harder it would be to pick possible characters and still leave out Geno... So who knows?

 

[Scamper52596]

So, what do you guys think a Shantae trailer would play out like? I feel like a lot of it, if not all of it, would have to take place in her world with her art style like the Byleth and Min Min trailers. If they did it that way though it would probably be pretty obvious right away who the new Smash character was going to be while watching it. But maybe they could start it out around Shantae's home where you see mostly water, some small islands, and maybe a ship in the background before panning over to the bridge in front of her lighthouse. That way it would start out with a little mystery. When Shantae fans see her house is when it would become obvious to us what character is about to happen, but maybe not to other people until she appears on screen. That's how I'd imagine her trailer starting out anyway. Then maybe she opens her front door and receives a Smash invitation or something.

 

[Inoj]

A new trailer for Double Dragon Neon just dropped.

 

[MeteoRain]

So, what do you guys think a Shantae trailer would play out like? I feel like a lot of it, if not all of it, would have to take place in her world with her art style like the Byleth and Min Min trailers. If they did it that way though it would probably be pretty obvious right away who the new Smash character was going to be while watching it. But maybe they could start it out around Shantae's home where you see mostly water, some small islands, and maybe a ship in the background before panning over to the bridge in front of her lighthouse. That way it would start out with a little mystery. When Shantae fans see her house is when it would become obvious to us what character is about to happen, but maybe not to other people until she appears on screen. That's how I'd imagine her trailer starting out anyway. Then maybe she opens her front door and receives a Smash invitation or something.

Opening the front door?

Nah, then K. Rool fires a cannon ball through the ceiling only to get whipped off screen a moment later.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I would honestly think King K. Rool being involved in Shantae's trailer if she were among the final 3.

He fits her criteria given her nemesis Risky Boots being a pirate.

 

[kaithehedgefox]

All of the installments in the Shantae franchise/series has at least been on a Nintendo Console. To contrast, Touhou has never gotten any official names on any consoles of any kind at all.

 

[Comedic Comrade]

Anyone around here know who PockethalfGenie is? He's my friend on Discord. I chat with him sometimes, especially when it comes to Shantae for Smash speculation. He says the following characters were the most campaigned for and the highest voted:

Banjo-Kazooie
King K. Rool
Ridley
Snake
Wolf
Shantae
Sans (he said he doesn't remember on this one)
Geno
Isaac

Banjo-Kazooie, King K. Rool, Ridley and Wolf all became playable. Snake came back. Sans and Geno became Mii Costumes (the latter was initially a Spirit). And finally, Isaac became an Assist Trophy. Shantae is all that's left.

 

[Scamper52596]

Opening the front door?

Nah, then K. Rool fires a cannon ball through the ceiling only to get whipped off screen a moment later.

Yes, that sounds way more exciting than my ending! I was trying to think of something better than just receiving the invitation, but my thoughts were more set on how the trailer would open while retaining some mystery for the character because most of the Smash trailers we've gotten recently have tried to build up suspense for whatever character is about to get shown off.

 

[MeteoRain]

All of the installments in the Shantae franchise/series has at least been on a Nintendo Console. To contrast, Touhou has never gotten any official names on any consoles of any kind at all.

Wrong board?

I don't bother with trying to convince Reimu's drum circle that Shantae has a chance.

If they can't see the Spirit, Smash Tag, her back and fourth presence with Shovel Knight as the poster girl on the indie button on Nintendo's eShop, or even being on the cover of one of the final Nintendo Power magazines as acknowledgement. Not even humor the idea, while some shove their supposedly "big as Dragon Quest" agenda down everyone's throat. What else can I say?

Many of them pull the same "these deserve it more" or "are more iconic" lists, that every gatekeeper across the Smash fandom pulls on them as well.

Ignorance must be bliss.