Want to know when a certain pokemon will appear? (Research:059%; New behavioral info)

[Kunato]

itsameSMB: I just finished reading all the pages, and I have to say that I love your efforts.
It's awesome to see that someone works hard in order to contribute to this community. Also, seeing how you respect everyone's opinion, even if they just flame you, brings a tear to my eye. We really need more people like you.

Good luck with your research! I'll stay tuned!

 

[majorojam]

I popped a Manaphy without the appearance of Mew, Celebi, or Jirachi (this happened on Spear Pillar, right in the center). Also, I got a Mew on the right edge of the right platform on Pokemon Stadium 2. Other than that, just a million Piplups.

EDIT: My top 5 are Munchlax, Snorlax, Wobbuffet, Gulpin, Bonsly.

 

[Zook]

Question: Why do you care? I find this thread strange... You gain nothing from conducting this test, and you waste a huge portion of your time. Do you really care this much about a video game?

I doubt that anyone actually cares about how many times out of 100 a Celebii appears...

 

[Sir Bedevere]

Mmm, very interested in seeing your results. I'll try to conduct some research of my own when I have the time. Sweet thread.

Top Five: Manaphy, Munchlax, Groudon, Kyogre, Entei.

EDIT: You know what, screw it, I'll do some tests right now. Guess I had the time after all.

 

[majorojam]

Question: Why do you care? I find this thread strange... You gain nothing from conducting this test, and you waste a huge portion of your time. Do you really care this much about a video game?

I doubt that anyone actually cares about how many times out of 100 a Celebii appears...

Why are you such a jerk? It's a personal test that he feels the necessity to conduct. When you break it down, it's not "when a certain pokemon will appear", but rather a very complex and abstract probability mechanism, and he is trying to solve it. It's a personal exercise for his mind, and whether or not he is successful in all of this, the challenge will help to carve and shape him into a higher intellectual.

EDIT: I just got a Kyogre and Groudon consecutively on the top platform of Spear Pillar. Both pokeballs were opened within about 5 seconds of each other.

 

[grimraper139]

seems like a lot of work

 

[Zook]

Why are you such a jerk? It's a personal test that he feels the necessity to conduct. When you break it down, it's not "when a certain pokemon will appear", but rather a very complex and abstract probability mechanism, and he is trying to solve it. It's a personal exercise for his mind, and whether or not he is successful in all of this, the challenge will help to carve and shape him into a higher intellectual.

Jeez, calm down. It was just a question. I, personally, just don't find it a very... worthwhile... subject.

Whatever, continue with your experiment.

 

[JawaJedi]

I want to know if there's a reason I haven't encountered a Manaphy yet, or if there's a way to make sure I get one, just for the fun of finding one.

 

[etrain911]

Just out of curiousity, how many of you are actually waiting for me to come out with my resullts and methods? It gets a bit monotonous after a while and if no one cares, I rather not waste my breath/time/etc. However, if you guys actually give two bits about what I'm doing here, just post something here. I need all the motivation I can get (pathetic, isn't it?)! Also if you do post in response to this, name the top 5 pokemon you would like to be able to predict (50 bucks says that you'll all choose the same pokemon for your top 3).

I for one would love to see this continue and I'm honored you took my suggestion. I need all the help I can get with all the collectables in brawl so I'd love to be able to predict how often I'll get all three of the reward pokemon as well as Snorlax and Manphy, I love Snorlax and I've yet to see Manaphy so it would be pretty cool.

 

[cheatllwin]

Nice job, you broke a rule by quadruple posting. Why are you posting this "reserved for future use" every minute? Read the rules please.

I was liking it, until I saw the 3 spam posts. Good first post.

this guy likes banjo too

 

[Dx-pyrohunter64]

^_^ Nice Effort! I'm kinda bored so if I can help you in any way with the testing I'd be glad to help out =D

 

[Dx-pyrohunter64]

oops sorry for double post, didn't mean to =/

umm quick test but I g2g *the torchics were weird O.o*

Latios
Metagross
Gardevoir
Bonsly
Weavile
bonsly
electrode
torchic
snorlax
togepi
???\
celebi - left platform
Electrode - delayed
torchic
torchic
torchic
chikorita
latios
togepi
torchic
latias
gulpin
gulpin
munchlax
snorlaxs
goldeen
bellosom
electrode
meowth
groudon
weavile
staryu
staryu
snorlax
Latias

Battlefield
99 stock
me fox original color
opponent - non controlled pokemon trainer original color
will update later

 

[majorojam]

I just saw three Manaphies in one battle.

Spear Pillar
40 stock
Me: Falco (default)
Opponents: Luigi, Diddy, Lucas (all default colors)

In fact, this is the only stage that I've ever seen a Manaphy on. Coincidence? Also to add, they were all opened on the top platform, not in the cave.

 

[itsameSMB]

I'm quite interested to see what you find. Out of curiosity, how much testing have you done? Simply because I'm interested in knowing the scale of your testing.

Well, so far, I've done ten and a half (I say half because during one test, Microsoft Excel gave out unexpectedly on me and I was only able to recover about half of the data from it) tests and I would like to do at least 50 tests before I say anything for certain. Each test usually yields somewhere around 500 pokeballs (give or take, especially give), and sometimes 600+. If my method based off what I find after 50 or so tests does not work at least 75% of the time in practice, I'll do another 50. And if that fails, I'll do even more. Of course, Each test on average takes around a little more than an hour and a half for me, since I pause after almost every pokemon. I may have one or two screw-up now in then (like forgeting if it was Latias or Latios that appeared), but I always mark the plausable data somehow.

If any of you would like to help me gather data from a test of any duration, I'd really help me out. However, for me to include it in my analysis it needs to follow a certain format. If you want to help, I'll mention you on the first page (if you want) and it will help me confirm my observations. If you are interested (and I really hope some of you are), you can either post here saying so or you can PM me stating as such. I'll show you the format and I won't force you to do the test. You can also PM me for instructions on how to submit a pokeball log. Remember, the more info I have, the more answers I can give!

As for pokemon that could be predicted, I'd of course like to see the reward pokemon, but also Manaphy just because it's so rare, and perhaps some assorted other legendary pokes.

Unfortunely the pokemon I have the least information on are reward pokemon (go figure). It's strange; I had one test where I say 6 reward spawns but only one manaphy. Maybe there was another indiscreptancy in that test, but I'd have to look over it again to check. Actually, in what was going to be my first long test (called test 0 because I got distracted after the 62nd pokemon and forgot to record a whole slew of pokemon), Mew had appeared from only the 59th pokeball. I know it's kind of obvious, but the longer you play, the more likely you'll see a reward pokemon (put no guarantees you'll see one for sure). I'd like to point out though that it is much liker for a reward pokemon to appear in a match (preferably a long one) if it has not appeared yet on the save file being played.

 

[itsameSMB]

itsameSMB: I just finished reading all the pages, and I have to say that I love your efforts.
It's awesome to see that someone works hard in order to contribute to this community. Also, seeing how you respect everyone's opinion, even if they just flame you, brings a tear to my eye. We really need more people like you.

Good luck with your research! I'll stay tuned!

Thanks, you just made my day!

 

[Trace_User500]

This topic really interests me.
I did three battles on each pokemon stage, but unless you want me to i'll just show you the PS battles. Only the legendarys are recorded.
Match One:
#5, Celebi! Pokeball hit CPU, not near edge.
#11, Ho-Oh! CPU shielded, not near edge.
This match was short enogh to be replayed.
11 pokeballs wre thrown.
Match Two:
#1,Jirachi! Did not hit CPU, not near edge.
#8,Jirachi! Again! No hit, center of stage.
#11,Suicune! Hit CPU. Center of stage.
Time: 3:07
11 pokeballs wre thrown.
Match Three:
#11,Latios. No hit, not near edge.
#15,Groudon! Edge, no hit.
In my opinion, PS is the greatest stage for pokemon.

 

[Trace_User500]

See below.

 

[Trace_User500]

How did that happen.

 

[joeysmash]

someone needs a new internet browser

 

[itsameSMB]

Question: Why do you care? I find this thread strange... You gain nothing from conducting this test, and you waste a huge portion of your time. Do you really care this much about a video game?

I doubt that anyone actually cares about how many times out of 100 a Celebii appears...

Another question: why do you care why I care?

Okay, being serious now. I can see why you would think that conducting a test doesn't do me any good. In fact, I partially agree! For such a (psuedo-)random system, one test would prove nothing. It'd be like developing a Brawl tier list after watching a single match where a veteran smash player beat his little sibling who played as Marth and Peach as Bowser or something. You don't have enough information from that test to make that large of an assumption. Now let's say you just watched 100 one-on-one matches between different characters in casual play between players of varying skill levels. You still would not be able tomake a tier list, but you would notice some consistancies over time and maybe see a prevailing strategy or two. You'd also notice the priorities of certain moves over others. Now, let's say you've been watching as many Brawl tournaments as possible, especially large ones where the creme-da-la-creme sparred, all at the top of their metagame. I'm not talking like on or two weeks work of tournaments, I mean a plethora of tourneys, like a one or two year's worth. NOW you might be able to put the pieces together and form that tier list. However, as you keep researching the matches, a new strategy or technique may pop up and challenge a portion of your tier list or maybe blow out it's foundation! As new informatiom arises, you add it to what you know and re-analyize the data. It never stops either, since meta games are eternally fluctuating. It's just that it fluctuates less and less as time goes on. The tier list also does not determine the winner of a match either, since it doesn't take certain factors into account like Peach plucking a beam sword from the ground or enviromental hazards or benefits that vary from stage to stage. It is used as a rough indicator of what should happen based on data observed and gathered from the past. That's exactly what this is meant to do. It's meant to collect the information of many, many, many tests and turn it into a collection of mostly facts and assumptions (based off hard evidence) that can be used to anticipate certain events over others. Mind you it may not be 100% accurate, or maybe even 50%, but if a pokeball is thrown by a foe right by you and is about to be activated, wouldn't you like to know if it's an Entei or Torchic so you can get out of there or if it's a reward pokemon or bonsly so you can be close to it to alter the situation in your favor rather than just hoping for the best? I know I would (and that's why I'm doing this)!
I do enjoy Brawl, but I'm not doing it for the game itself. It has enough going for it, save for a few obnoxious flaws (I know, you know, we know, they know, NWFC's got nothin' but Nintendo keeps on bluffin'. Please, if you want to complain about or defend an aspect of Brawl here, please restrain yourself and either make your own thread to discuss it or post on the official complaint thread). I also wanted to contribue to the community that seems to be on the cutting edge of Smashology, but that's not entirely it either. No, the reason I'm doing this is because believe it or not, I enjoy this kind of thing and anything I like + the ability to play as Mario while doing it = me doing it without hesitation. Poke fun at it if you will, but I don't really mind.
Also, I can't help but detect some ill will in your comment. I don't believe it was intentional, but I'd like to ask that if you need to attack something, attack my work with contradicting truths rather than me with negative comments. K, thanks!

(Btw, I neither support nor argue against tiers. Please don't discuss it on this thread!)

 

[Sir Bedevere]

Random Tests

Right, just back from testing. Did them using the following settings:

Battlefield
10 stock
Unlimited Time
Wolf(me) Original costume
Bowser (lvl 3 CPU) Original Costume
Ganon (lvl 3 CPU) Original Costume
Pokeballs only on high

The purpose of these tests were to find if there was any relation between the two blue circlets on the field, and whether they affected Pokemon spawn. Three tests were done. The first battle went as follows:

NOTE: For ease of typing, I will use a legend and the shortened form of each Pokemon found. The code is:

Gr:Groudon
Ky: Kyogre
Mo: Moltres
En: Entei
Sui: Suicune
Ho: Ho-Oh
Lu: Luiga
Lat:Latias & Latios
Deo: Deoxys
Man: Manaphy
Mew: Mew
Cel: Celebi
Ji: Jirachi
To: Togepi
Met: Metagross
Me: Meowth
Mu: Munchlax
Gu: Gulpin
Pi: Piplup
Bo: Bonsly
We: Weavile
Tor: Torchic
Gar: Gardevoir
El: Electrode
Go: Goldeen
St: Staryu
Sn: Snorlax
Ch: Chikorita
Be: Bellossom
Wo: Wobbuffet

All:
Mu-Go-Sui-Go-To-To-We-En-Sn-Ch-Sn-Gu-We-Go-We-Go-Go-Mu-We-Gu-Be-Gu-Go-Me-Gu-To-Met-Be-Me-Sn-Lat-Be-Me-Gar-El-Cel-Sui-Wo-Be-Wo-
Gar-Mew-El-Gar-Lat-Go-We-Sn-Sn-Be-Go-Gu-Sn-Go-Bo-Be-Met-Lat-El-Be-Wo-We-Lat-Gu-To-To-Me-Wo-Wo-St-Tor-To-Sn-Lat-We-Tor-Me-Wo-Man-Ch-To-Tor-Pi-Pi

Legendary Specific: a-a-Sui-a-To-To-a-En-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-To-a-a-a-a-Lat-a-a-a-a-Cel-Sui-a-a-a-
a-Mew-a-a-Lat-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Lat-a-a-a-a-Lat-a-To-To-a-a-a-a-a-To-a-Lat-a-a-a-a-Man-a-To-a-a-a

Notes:
-85 Pokeballs were thrown, 11 Legendaries( 18 including Togepi)
-Pretty sparse, legendary-wise. Mostly Lats and Togepis.
-My first Celebi, Mew, and Manaphy sighting! ^_^ Of course, the Mew gave me a sticker since I have all the other CDs >_> Manaphy worked, by the way.
-None of the Electrodes failed.
-I always threw the Pokeball in a standing position, straight down.
-I did not record which circlet the Pokeball was thrown on, nor which Pokeballs were hijacked by CPUs and thrown places other than the circlets. This may cause problems.
- A majority of the legendaries (including Celebi and Manaphy) were spawned on the left circlet. However, this may be due to me throwing a majority of the Pokeballs there.

The second test uses the exact same settings as before, but was more planned out. I recorded which circlet the ball was thrown, as well as if the ball was thrown somewhere other than the circlets, and alternated between circlets. The second test is as follows:

NOTE: Numbers will represent which circlet, if any, the ball was thrown on.

1-Left circlet
2- Right Circlet
3- Off (did not fall on circlet)

All:
Go3-Lat2-Pi1-El2-Me1-Ch2-Mo1-Sn2-Ky1-Be2-Mu1-Ch2-Pi3-Met2-Me1-Me2-Gu1-Pi2-Gu1-St2-Wo2-Sn1-Wo2-Lat1-St2-Ch1-Lat2-Go2
-Lat1-Me2-To1-Be1-Mu2-Ky1-Mo2-St1-Lat2-Tor1-Go3-Sn1-Lat2-St3-Go1-To2-Ga1-Deo2-To1-Gu2-El1(delayed)-Go2-Go1-Be2-El1-Ga3-Met1-Me2-Deo1

Legendary:
a-Lat2-a-a-a-a-Mo1-a-Ky1-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Lat1-a-a-Lat2-a
-Lat1-a-To1-a-a-Ky1-Mo2-a-Lat2-a-a-a-Lat2-a-a-To2-a-Deo2-To1-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Deo1

Area:
1i1-Me1-Mo1-Ky1-Mu1-Me1-Gu1-Gu1-Sn1-Lat1-Ch1-Lat1-To1-Be1-Ky1-St1-Tor1-Sn1-Go1-Ga1-To1-El1(delayed)-Go1-El1-Met1-Deo1
2:Lat2-El2-Ch2-Sn2-Be2-Ch2-Met2-Me2-Pi2-St2-Wo2-Wo2-St2-Lat2-Go2-Me2-Mu2-Mo2-Lat2-Lat2-To2-Deo2-Gu2-Go2-Me2-Be2
3:Go3-Pi3-Go3-St3-Ga3

Area and Legendary:
1:Mo1-Ky1-Lat1-Lat1-To1-Ky1-To1-Deo1
2:Lat2-Lat2-Lat2-Lat2-To2-Deo2-Mo2
3:None

Notes:
-58 Pokeballs were thrown, 12 legendaries( 15 including Togepi)
- I did pretty well, defending the Pokeballs from the CPUs.
- Out of the 5 balls that were off, 2 were Goldeens.
- Latios seem more common in the right circlet.

The third test added the middle factor into the mix. The Pokeballs were thrown first on the right, then the middle, then the left, then middle, then right, etc.

NOTE:
Slightly altered code:
1: Left
2: Right
3: Middle
4: Off

All:
Mu4-En1-To3-Bo2-Wo3-Mu1-Lat3-Lat2-Go4-Ga3-Bo1-Wo3-Mew2(lololol)-Wo1-Go3-Met4-Pi2-Bo3-El1-Ga4-Pi3-Sn2-Wo3-Lu1-Bo3-Me2
-Go3-Me4-Ch4-Ga4-Tor1-Ky3-We2-Go3(hit)-Be4-Go4(hit)-Mu2-Ga2-Tor1-Lat3-St4-Me3-Ho3-Go1-Me3-We2-Sn3-Met1-We4-Mu4-Wo3-Go3
-Wo3-Gar1-To3-Mu1-St3-Wo4-Wo2-El3-Wo1-Mo3-Deo2-Lat3-Lat1-Lat3-Bel3-St3-En1-Me4-Gar3-To2-Ch3-Mu1-Wo3-Gar4-Be1-To3-Bo2-Wo3
-El1-Pi3-Mu2-El4(delay)-Go4-Lat3(hit)-Go1-Bo4(hit)-Pi3-Ch2-Gu3-We1-Gu3-To2-Mo3

Legendaries:
a-En1-To3-a-a-a-Lat3-Lat2-a-a-a-a-Mew2(lololol)-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Lu1-a-a
-a-a-a-a-a-Ky3-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Lat3-a-a-Ho3-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a
-a-a-To3-a-a-a-a-a-a-Mo3-Deo2-Lat3-Lat1-Lat3-a-a-En1-a-a-To2-a-a-a-a-a-To3-a-a
-a-a-a-a-a-Lat3(hit)-a-aa-a-a-a-a-a-To2-Mo3

Area:
1:En1-Mu1-Bo1-Wo1-El1-Lu1-Tor1-Tor1-Go1-Met1-Gar1-Mu1-Wo1-Lat1-En1-Mu1-Be1-El1-Go1-We1
2:Bo2-Lat2-Mew2(lololol)-Pi2-Sn2-Me2-We2-Mu2-Ga2-We2-Wo2-Deo2-To2-Bo2-Mu2-Ch2-To2
3:To3-Wo3-Lat3-Ga3-Wo3-Go3-Bo3-Pi3-Wo3-Bo3-Go3-Ky3-Go3(hit)-Lat3-Me3-Ho3-Me3-Sn3-Wo3-Go3-Wo3-To3-St3-El3-Mo3-Lat3-Lat3-Bel3-St3-Gar3-Ch3-Wo3-To3-Wo3-Pi3-Lat3(hit)-Pi3-Gu3-Gu3-Mo3
4:Mu4-Go4-Met4-Ga4-Me4-Ch4-Ga4-Be4-Go4(hit)-St4-We4-Mu4-Wo4-Me4-Gar4-El4(delay)-Go4-Bo4(hit)

Area and Legendaries:
1:En1-Lu1-Lat1-En1
2:Lat2-Mew2(lololol)-Deo2-To2-To2
3:To3-Lat3-Ky3-Lat3-Ho3-To3-Mo3-Lat3-Lat3-To3-Lat3(hit)-Mo3
4:None

Notes:
-95 Pokeballs were thrown, 16 Legendaries( 21 including Togepi)
- I did a horrible job of controlling the match, as shown by the extremely large Off number of Pokeballs. And yet, none of them legendaries.
-(hit) simply means that the ball was used to hit an opponent (or in all cases, me )
-Don't be fooled by the big list of middles; I'm comparing circlet to middle, not left to right to middle. The discrepancy was added to even out the chances of the left or right affecting the outcome.
-A lot more Latioses were found in the middle area.
- A Mew, yet again, appeared on the right Circlet.

Don't know how this might help, but use it at your whim. I'll think I'll conduct some more tests tomorrow. Oh, and yes, I am requesting to help you conduct research. Proper format, please!

 

[itsameSMB]

Right, just back from testing. Did them using the following settings:

Battlefield
10 stock
Unlimited Time
Wolf(me) Original costume
Bowser (lvl 3 CPU) Original Costume
Ganon (lvl 3 CPU) Original Costume
Pokeballs only on high

The purpose of these tests were to find if there was any relation between the two blue circlets on the field, and whether they affected Pokemon spawn. Three tests were done. The first battle went as follows:

NOTE: For ease of typing, I will use a legend and the shortened form of each Pokemon found. The code is:

Gr:Groudon
Ky: Kyogre
Mo: Moltres
En: Entei
Sui: Suicune
Ho: Ho-Oh
Lu: Luiga
Lat:Latias & Latios
Deo: Deoxys
Man: Manaphy
Mew: Mew
Cel: Celebi
Ji: Jirachi
To: Togepi
Met: Metagross
Me: Meowth
Mu: Munchlax
Gu: Gulpin
Pi: Piplup
Bo: Bonsly
We: Weavile
Tor: Torchic
Gar: Gardevoir
El: Electrode
Go: Goldeen
St: Staryu
Sn: Snorlax
Ch: Chikorita
Be: Bellossom
Wo: Wobbuffet

All:
Mu-Go-Sui-Go-To-To-We-En-Sn-Ch-Sn-Gu-We-Go-We-Go-Go-Mu-We-Gu-Be-Gu-Go-Me-Gu-To-Met-Be-Me-Sn-Lat-Be-Me-Gar-El-Cel-Sui-Wo-Be-Wo-
Gar-Mew-El-Gar-Lat-Go-We-Sn-Sn-Be-Go-Gu-Sn-Go-Bo-Be-Met-Lat-El-Be-Wo-We-Lat-Gu-To-To-Me-Wo-Wo-St-Tor-To-Sn-Lat-We-Tor-Me-Wo-Man-Ch-To-Tor-Pi-Pi

Legendary Specific: a-a-Sui-a-To-To-a-En-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-To-a-a-a-a-Lat-a-a-a-a-Cel-Sui-a-a-a-
a-Mew-a-a-Lat-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Lat-a-a-a-a-Lat-a-To-To-a-a-a-a-a-To-a-Lat-a-a-a-a-Man-a-To-a-a-a

Notes:
-85 Pokeballs were thrown, 11 Legendaries( 18 including Togepi)
-Pretty sparse, legendary-wise. Mostly Lats and Togepis.
-My first Celebi, Mew, and Manaphy sighting! ^_^ Of course, the Mew gave me a sticker since I have all the other CDs >_> Manaphy worked, by the way.
-None of the Electrodes failed.
-I always threw the Pokeball in a standing position, straight down.
-I did not record which circlet the Pokeball was thrown on, nor which Pokeballs were hijacked by CPUs and thrown places other than the circlets. This may cause problems.
- A majority of the legendaries (including Celebi and Manaphy) were spawned on the left circlet. However, this may be due to me throwing a majority of the Pokeballs there.

The second test uses the exact same settings as before, but was more planned out. I recorded which circlet the ball was thrown, as well as if the ball was thrown somewhere other than the circlets, and alternated between circlets. The second test is as follows:

NOTE: Numbers will represent which circlet, if any, the ball was thrown on.

1-Left circlet
2- Right Circlet
3- Off (did not fall on circlet)

All:
Go3-Lat2-Pi1-El2-Me1-Ch2-Mo1-Sn2-Ky1-Be2-Mu1-Ch2-Pi3-Met2-Me1-Me2-Gu1-Pi2-Gu1-St2-Wo2-Sn1-Wo2-Lat1-St2-Ch1-Lat2-Go2
-Lat1-Me2-To1-Be1-Mu2-Ky1-Mo2-St1-Lat2-Tor1-Go3-Sn1-Lat2-St3-Go1-To2-Ga1-Deo2-To1-Gu2-El1(delayed)-Go2-Go1-Be2-El1-Ga3-Met1-Me2-Deo1

Legendary:
a-Lat2-a-a-a-a-Mo1-a-Ky1-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Lat1-a-a-Lat2-a
-Lat1-a-To1-a-a-Ky1-Mo2-a-Lat2-a-a-a-Lat2-a-a-To2-a-Deo2-To1-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Deo1

Area:
1i1-Me1-Mo1-Ky1-Mu1-Me1-Gu1-Gu1-Sn1-Lat1-Ch1-Lat1-To1-Be1-Ky1-St1-Tor1-Sn1-Go1-Ga1-To1-El1(delayed)-Go1-El1-Met1-Deo1
2:Lat2-El2-Ch2-Sn2-Be2-Ch2-Met2-Me2-Pi2-St2-Wo2-Wo2-St2-Lat2-Go2-Me2-Mu2-Mo2-Lat2-Lat2-To2-Deo2-Gu2-Go2-Me2-Be2
3:Go3-Pi3-Go3-St3-Ga3

Area and Legendary:
1:Mo1-Ky1-Lat1-Lat1-To1-Ky1-To1-Deo1
2:Lat2-Lat2-Lat2-Lat2-To2-Deo2-Mo2
3:None

Notes:
-58 Pokeballs were thrown, 12 legendaries( 15 including Togepi)
- I did pretty well, defending the Pokeballs from the CPUs.
- Out of the 5 balls that were off, 2 were Goldeens.
- Latios seem more common in the right circlet.

The third test added the middle factor into the mix. The Pokeballs were thrown first on the right, then the middle, then the left, then middle, then right, etc.

NOTE:
Slightly altered code:
1: Left
2: Right
3: Middle
4: Off

All:
Mu4-En1-To3-Bo2-Wo3-Mu1-Lat3-Lat2-Go4-Ga3-Bo1-Wo3-Mew2(lololol)-Wo1-Go3-Met4-Pi2-Bo3-El1-Ga4-Pi3-Sn2-Wo3-Lu1-Bo3-Me2
-Go3-Me4-Ch4-Ga4-Tor1-Ky3-We2-Go3(hit)-Be4-Go4(hit)-Mu2-Ga2-Tor1-Lat3-St4-Me3-Ho3-Go1-Me3-We2-Sn3-Met1-We4-Mu4-Wo3-Go3
-Wo3-Gar1-To3-Mu1-St3-Wo4-Wo2-El3-Wo1-Mo3-Deo2-Lat3-Lat1-Lat3-Bel3-St3-En1-Me4-Gar3-To2-Ch3-Mu1-Wo3-Gar4-Be1-To3-Bo2-Wo3
-El1-Pi3-Mu2-El4(delay)-Go4-Lat3(hit)-Go1-Bo4(hit)-Pi3-Ch2-Gu3-We1-Gu3-To2-Mo3

Legendaries:
a-En1-To3-a-a-a-Lat3-Lat2-a-a-a-a-Mew2(lololol)-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Lu1-a-a
-a-a-a-a-a-Ky3-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-Lat3-a-a-Ho3-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a
-a-a-To3-a-a-a-a-a-a-Mo3-Deo2-Lat3-Lat1-Lat3-a-a-En1-a-a-To2-a-a-a-a-a-To3-a-a
-a-a-a-a-a-Lat3(hit)-a-aa-a-a-a-a-a-To2-Mo3

Area:
1:En1-Mu1-Bo1-Wo1-El1-Lu1-Tor1-Tor1-Go1-Met1-Gar1-Mu1-Wo1-Lat1-En1-Mu1-Be1-El1-Go1-We1
2:Bo2-Lat2-Mew2(lololol)-Pi2-Sn2-Me2-We2-Mu2-Ga2-We2-Wo2-Deo2-To2-Bo2-Mu2-Ch2-To2
3:To3-Wo3-Lat3-Ga3-Wo3-Go3-Bo3-Pi3-Wo3-Bo3-Go3-Ky3-Go3(hit)-Lat3-Me3-Ho3-Me3-Sn3-Wo3-Go3-Wo3-To3-St3-El3-Mo3-Lat3-Lat3-Bel3-St3-Gar3-Ch3-Wo3-To3-Wo3-Pi3-Lat3(hit)-Pi3-Gu3-Gu3-Mo3
4:Mu4-Go4-Met4-Ga4-Me4-Ch4-Ga4-Be4-Go4(hit)-St4-We4-Mu4-Wo4-Me4-Gar4-El4(delay)-Go4-Bo4(hit)

Area and Legendaries:
1:En1-Lu1-Lat1-En1
2:Lat2-Mew2(lololol)-Deo2-To2-To2
3:To3-Lat3-Ky3-Lat3-Ho3-To3-Mo3-Lat3-Lat3-To3-Lat3(hit)-Mo3
4:None

Notes:
-95 Pokeballs were thrown, 16 Legendaries( 21 including Togepi)
- I did a horrible job of controlling the match, as shown by the extremely large Off number of Pokeballs. And yet, none of them legendaries.
-(hit) simply means that the ball was used to hit an opponent (or in all cases, me )
-Don't be fooled by the big list of middles; I'm comparing circlet to middle, not left to right to middle. The discrepancy was added to even out the chances of the left or right affecting the outcome.
-A lot more Latioses were found in the middle area.
- A Mew, yet again, appeared on the right Circlet.

Don't know how this might help, but use it at your whim. I'll think I'll conduct some more tests tomorrow. Oh, and yes, I am requesting to help you conduct research. Proper format, please!

Wow, phenomenal research! this is slightly more detailed than my records! You know what? I'm definitely using this. This is incredible. About the proper format: I'm working on it right now, along with instructions. I should have it ready by tomorrow for sure, but I think it will be done much sooner than that. You'll be able to find it on the first page. I can compile this for you if you want.

 

[itsameSMB]

oops sorry for double post, didn't mean to =/

umm quick test but I g2g *the torchics were weird O.o*

Latios
Metagross
Gardevoir
Bonsly
Weavile
bonsly
electrode
torchic
snorlax
togepi
???\
celebi - left platform
Electrode - delayed
torchic
torchic
torchic
chikorita
latios
togepi
torchic
latias
gulpin
gulpin
munchlax
snorlaxs
goldeen
bellosom
electrode
meowth
groudon
weavile
staryu
staryu
snorlax
Latias

Battlefield
99 stock
me fox original color
opponent - non controlled pokemon trainer original color
will update laterI shrunk the text down to save space.

Great job, but assume since this was a 99 stock match that there were far more pokeballs than this, right?

 

[Mattnumbers]

Thanks for doing this! They should put "the pokeman" under your name.

For some reason I have not seen a single manaphy yet. also I have only seen 1 jerachi and no mews' or clebis'.

 

[M.K]

itsameSMB, did you get my Private Message? I think you should check that out!

 

[itsameSMB]

Thanks for doing this! They should put "the pokeman" under your name.

For some reason I have not seen a single manaphy yet. also I have only seen 1 jerachi and no mews' or clebis'.

Ha ha! That's good, I like that! Don't worry about the pokemon though, you will almost always see at least one of those if you do a long match.

 

[itsameSMB]

itsameSMB, did you get my Private Message? I think you should check that out!

Yes, I even replied to it. I'll see if I get around to doing that.

 

[DykeLOL]

tl;dr
You should put a conclusion section so we know what you're doing.

 

[majorojam]

This thread is a winner. Even though the Pokemon are supposedly "random, but each have a probability", there are patterns to everything -- and judging by what you have deciphered so far, I know you're on the right track. Keep it up man. I'll do a test or two for you if you want.

 

[itsameSMB]

I'm thrilled to see that so many of you are so willing to contribute! I'm in the middle of a test right now, so I'll be one step closer to compilation and then analysis. When I am done I will finish up the instructions and proper format document and upload it to a file sharing site, which I will provide the link to on the first page.

 

[Xtreme Starfox]

Manaphy will only appear after at least one legendary pokemon does.

I'm sure I've seen a Manaphy appear without any legendary pokemon, about 2 times?

 

[itsameSMB]

I'm sure I've seen a Manaphy appear without any legendary pokemon, about 2 times?

...Care to tell us a little more or provide with some evidence?

 

[themagicnickel]

Keep up the research... You must have alot of time on your hands.

 

[Zook]

@ itsameSMB: Yeah, after I reread my post, I did dectect a bit of venom in that last part. So sorry!

 

[itsameSMB]

Keep up the research... You must have alot of time on your hands.

Um, thanks?

 

[GreatClayMonkey]

I've never had Manaphy appear at all and I once did a match with pokeballs on high on spear pillar and me and my friend were just goofin off but manaphy never appeared but i got every other pokemon to appear. Not sure if this helps.

 

[itsameSMB]

Finished an 80 stock test a while ago and I'm almost done preparing the instructions and proper format template for those ready to contribute. Give me five or so minutes and it will at least be done if not uploaded.

 

[itsameSMB]

Okay, the proper format files have been completed, uploaded, and linked to this page, so when ever any of you want to take a crack at it, it's on post #4.

 

[itsameSMB]

It's a personal test that he feels the necessity to conduct. When you break it down, it's not "when a certain pokemon will appear", but rather a very complex and abstract probability mechanism, and he is trying to solve it. It's a personal exercise for his mind, and whether or not he is successful in all of this, the challenge will help to carve and shape him into a higher intellectual.

Uh, yeah a little of that, but mostly because I have a lot of free time lately and enjoy tedium .

 

[itsameSMB]

seems like a lot of work

no kidding!