I'm pretty sure with precise inputs from both people, that Yoshi's CG only works until 100-ish damage and then Wario can begin to double jump out of it if timed perfectly. Its not the easiest to pull off, but its certainly a factor. A free 100 damage isnt something to laugh at. Oh, and Wario eats an automatic Usmash from yoshi when he's released.
I feel the matchup should be in the favor of Yoshi, as I don't see much of an advantage that Wario has over Yoshi otherwise. There is an advantage, but it's not the biggest. With the "infinite" it should be moved to Yoshi > Wario.
Yoshi has an air game very similar to Wario's; Both have killing Uairs, both have high damage dealing Dairs, and both move very quickly in the air. Yoshi has a good approach and spacing game with his Bair. Wario does have the grace to have a fair's that link into each other. Yoshi's nair is so quick that it's both a combo breaker and a killing move.
On the ground, Yoshi has the range with his tilts, and Wario feels like he has the power.
Yoshi has a nice projectile game, and Wario has some interesting tech chases.
Both have pretty decent recoveries in their own rights.
I can see Yoshi vs Wario as a neutral matchup.
With the CG, this might be moved up to an advantage to Yoshi.
It might not.
1. Wario has better/more effective punishment choices.
Better is quite subjective. Yoshi can punish well with his grabs which leads to a CG (which works on a lot of characters), a Dair which racks up a tooon of damage, jabs that easily and fluently link into tils, and obvious smashes. Wario has a lot too, but its quite arguable that one has a more effective punishment game. And, even if one did have a punishing game that fits better with their metagame, that has NO bearing on the matchup. Yoshi is quite hard to punish, he really is.
2. Wario has a better recovery and can edgeguard better.
This is irrelevant to the matchup, it really is. Wario may have a decent recovery, but Yoshi may not even need to chase. His egg toss game racks up a lot of damage and unstales his moves, so I can see him doing that while Wario recovers.
Edgeguarding doesnt make much sense here because Yoshi is quite hard to gimp off the edge. His Niar has spectacular speed, and challenges the range on your Fair. More importantly, Yoshi's second jump is HUUUUGE and it has SA frames throughout the whole thing. You will rarely edgeguard Yoshi. You may be better at chasing, but Yoshi can get back unharmed, and he doesnt need to chase you when he can sit back and toss some eggs.
3. Wario's air game is slightly better and his ground game is less punishable that Yoshi's.
You really can't claim one his better than anothers unless it's painfully obvious. There are many nuances, and I dont want to argue how each works in the air. Yoshi should be able to go toe-to-toe against Wario up there.
How is Yoshi's ground game punishable?
The one thing I can think of as being punishable is his grabbing, and this is only punishable when it isnt a pivot grab.
His jabs are very fast, and Yoshi's tilts work immediately out of his jabs. Speed is quite hard to punish. This sort of conflicts with your first point if you argue these. If Wario is good at punishing, then he's also punishable. Ike is a prime example of this; Dedede, and Ganon are also examples of this.
So whats so punishable about Yoshi's ground game that Wario can capitalize on?
4. Wario combo's better and can exert more pressure than Yoshi can.
Lol.
Yoshi's Nair is a combo breaker in this case. It's speed is crazy and it has some range to it, though it isnt huge. Yoshi's second jump will be able to break out of many things. Yoshi can link Bairs into more Bairs, Dair works into some other things as well, and as I mentioned too much so far, jabs work into his tilts.
Plus airdodging always fits unless you're move lingers or hits long enough
Yoshi can exert a LOT of pressure with his egg toss.
He really can, and you should fight some good users if you say it doesnt pressure well.
But I didnt come here to really argue o__O
Just my input on the CG/Infinite, and then I saw your stuff.