First off, it is a very common misconception that Lucario needs to have high % to kill. (Although it somewhat depends on the definition of high). At percents of 50-70, he is very capable of killing heavy characters such as DK at about 120. With a character as light as GW, it won't be a problem at all. Now, as far as moves are concerned, with a very light character like GW, all of lucario's smash attacks, bair while off stage (it outranges GW's fair), dair, Double team all are viable kill moves...in extreme cases, even ftilt and utilt can be used to kill light characters.
It's a very common misconception that because G&W has the second lightest weight that he dies early. G&W tanks hits with exceptional DI and a great recovery. More to the point, G&W has great defensive options allowing him to space incredibly well and take far less damage than he dishes out. He's a very hard character to kill unless you have amazing killing options like Snake's Utilt.
The fact is, Lucario doesn't have spectacular options.
From the numerous mains I've faced, the Dsmash is probably the best bet. Fsmash and Usmash are pretty bad, especially if you don't want to get punished.
Bair is a bad idea, because off stage chases with attacks don't work in fights vs G&W.
Dair is shut down by Uair and is outranged slightly by Utilt.
Double team is incredibly situational, and I've on many times been able to shield the sucka using the IASA frames at the end of my smashes.
Utilt and Ftilt do a bad job at killing.
Frankly, it sounded more like you were listing off killing moves while not thinking of the matchup.
Plus, most of the stuff is hard pressed to kill.
The point still stands because G&W kills far too low for Lucario to compensate.
If G&W gets the lead, which is likely, he's peppering on loads of damage while he's out of your killing range.
G&W isn't easy to kill, and you're overestimating Lucario's killing power.
G&W kills lower and this is a bad thing considering how reliant Lucario is on his Aura.
Even if Lucario can't gimp GW (which won't be needed much due to GW's weight, Lucario is much harder to gimp than people think. The only problem with Lucario's upB is the fact that it has startup time that can be interrupted with projectiles while off stage. On the account that GW has no projectiles that could pose a threat in this case, I see little possibility of him being gimped.
Lucario has a hell of a hard time killing G&W by not being able to get him to high percents and that G&W can take away his Aura relatively easily.
Lucario is one of the easiest people to gimp. G&W is amazing in off stage chases, and the startup time is so big that G&W can easily take advantage of this and sweetspot Fair. G&W doesn't need a projectile to gimp Lucario. Another thing worth noting is that Lucario's upB doesnt deal damage, and G&W can easily latch onto it for an easy ledge hog kill. If G&W plays his cards like he should, then you should be too far away to curve your upB onto the stage, though this might change if a wall is present.
Gimping Lucario is so very easy.
Lucario actually has above average aerial DI. In addition, nothing ends uair spamming more than just moving off stage.
It's not enough to get out of the Uair, as G&W has better DI.
The two things that get you out of it are Airdodging (where G&W punishes you coming down) or DIing to the ledge (where G&W punishes you coming down). In fact, whenever he gets the Uair off on you, he's refreshing his stale move queue, and setting you up in a position to get punished.
The fact that you shrug of this point is indicative of you're lack of experience with G&W's.
Nothing stops from Lucario simply playing defensive from the start of the match, I don't see anything GW has that would force an approach. Once GW is forced to approach, Lucario can play defensively, which he excels at.
First off, he doesnt need to force an approach at the beginning of the match. He can approach, and any time he gets the lead, whether its because he kills better than you or raises percent higher, you're forced to make an approach. G&W excels at playing offensively, and really outperforms Lucario.
So G&W can approach safely, and can force Lucario into approaching whenever a lead is gained (and this is often).
We have covered this. The attack won't be a concern. Lucario won't be as detrimentally affected as some think from not using Aura Spheres. He might lose a kill move but as a I covered earlier, he has quite a few against light characters.
The attack wont be as much as a concern, but it's still there.
And he will considering that his only way to force approaches is now taken away.
AS is his best killing move as far as Im concerned, and losing this IS a huge detriment.
The bucket also unstales other moves whenever it catches something
He will have to play a roll of a punisher when fighting GW. This will be somewhat detrimental.
It's incredibly hard to punish someone so safe and quick.
This is a huge detriment, because if he has to punish to do well in this match, he's shafted.
After going down through all the "huge disadvantages," there aren't as many as it seemed and definitely not enough to justify a big disadvantage.
Actually, there all still there.
You didn't disprove them.
And for reference, Ness has less of these than Lucario, and he still has a huge disadvantage. He isnt as reliant on his projectiles, kills much better than Lucario, has approaches that are on par, and isnt affected by Uair stalling. The fact is, you don't need all to be at a big disadvantage versus G&W, but Lucario is.
no point wasting time its never going to get changed, you should be happy another main is accepting an X instead of going all out to prove its neutral like most everyone else does here. G&W is broken we know, but its not an unwinnable situation like you make it out to be. i put it at 35:65 in the lucario boards, which isnt enough to warrant a large X, and im being extremely generous there, ive never lost to G&W user.
A huge disadvantage never means it's an unwinnable match, and thats where you mess up at categorizing who should get a huge X or not. It means that he has so many advantages in this matchup that it's a largely uphill battle for the other. I still lose on occasion to a very skilled Ness main, but the advantage is ever so real.
The matchup thread you listed is a joke.
It's numbers based off your own personal experience.
The G&W boards are pretty much in total agreement that Lucario is among our easiest matchups. OmegaBlackMage, Cutter, Neb, Myself, and I'm sure many others would also agree. Lucario is at a loss here.
The fact that you never lost to one doesn't mean anything.
I've won versus the NUMEROUS Lucario mains I fight on a short basis.
I can understand not wanting a huge X for your main, but this matchup warrants it.
35:65? Lol.