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Create your DLC likeliness chart!

Opossum

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The chances are so low because?
Because odds are we'd get a second Punch-Out!! character before another Xenoblade character. It's incredibly niche, and honestly, it just got a character. Keep in mind during his reveal, Sakurai said "He's not the type of character that would usually appear in the Smash Bros. series" on Miiverse. Even then, X would probably get a character.

EDIT: And if that's what was said about Shulk...
 
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Opossum

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R.I.P. in peace thread....
Oh, relax. Naturally a thread for DLC likeliness is going to foster healthy debate. Nothing has gotten out of hand. If anything, this post resembles spam more than anything. Posting things like "inb4 lock" and "RIP thread" only cause problems.
 
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Lucas, Roy and Wolf are the only ones I can see possibly having a chance.
 

AEMehr

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The chances are so low because?
What Opossum said, plus the factor that these are characters consumers will need to purchase separately. I feel like the only real "plausible" candidates are the popular options. As far as I can tell, while Xenoblade is a great franchise and X is a pretty hyped title, it's not that well known in the public eye.
Veterans are probably the ideal choice for downloadable content, because the development team knows fans want them back. Though the consistently requested characters like Dixie Kong, King K. Rool, Isaac, etc. are good options to derive characters from too, because they know a sizable audience exists for them.
 

False Sense

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What Opossum said, plus the factor that these are characters people will need to be purchased separately. I feel like the only real "plausible" candidates are the popular options. As far as I can tell, while Xenoblade is a great franchise and X is a pretty hyped title, it's not that well known in the public eye.
Veterans are probably the ideal choice for downloadable content, because the development team knows fans want them back and the consistently requested characters like Dixie Kong, King K. Rool, Isaac, etc., because they know a sizable audience exists for them, are the ones to keep an eye on.
Precisely. Something that must be kept in mind when considering potential DLC is that these are individual add-ons separate from the main game. What's more, you have to pay for them. Unlike with the initial roster, where they could be a little more risky and include characters like Wii Fit Trainer and Duck Hunt alongside characters like Mega Man and Little Mac and still be safe, this time they have to convince customers that these additional characters are worth the purchase. It's just business, really. Naturally, the characters that are the most popular and have the most demand will be the most profitable; as such, they are the most logical, and therefore most likely, candidates. This is further evidenced by the character they chose to test the potential of DLC: Mewtwo, perhaps the most requested character around the world. There's simply no question that huge numbers of people will buy him as soon as he's available, or possibly even get both versions of the game just so they can get him for free. I believe that it's these kinds of characters that are the most likely for DLC.
 

Delzethin

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Precisely. Something that must be kept in mind when considering potential DLC is that these are individual add-ons separate from the main game. What's more, you have to pay for them. Unlike with the initial roster, where they could be a little more risky and include characters like Wii Fit Trainer and Duck Hunt alongside characters like Mega Man and Little Mac and still be safe, this time they have to convince customers that these additional characters are worth the purchase. It's just business, really. Naturally, the characters that are the most popular and have the most demand will be the most profitable; as such, they are the most logical, and therefore most likely, candidates. This is further evidenced by the character they chose to test the potential of DLC: Mewtwo, perhaps the most requested character around the world. There's simply no question that huge numbers of people will buy him as soon as he's available, or possibly even get both versions of the game just so they can get him for free. I believe that it's these kinds of characters that are the most likely for DLC.
And that brings me to something I think a lot of people are overlooking: that using Smash to "promote" new games seems like too big a risk for them to take.

I've seen a handful of new characters (that is, characters who've only been on a Nintendo system for a year or less) being placed high on prediction lists. Inkling has been getting consistent As and Bs, even; among the highest rated. Thing is, while these characters may be the fresh new faces, Smash has never been about promoting games so much as celebrating them...and there's a reason for that:

It takes time to gauge the fans' interest on a character. Opinions can change practically overnight, even before a game comes out, and especially right after it comes out and people get to see the characters and all of their personalities and quirks and shortcomings firsthand.

Let's look at an example...the only time Smash did "promote" a new character. Roy was added to Melee as one of six clones at the tail end of development. Then Fire Emblem: Binding Blade came out in Japan...to lukewarm reception. To this day, Roy is generally disliked among Fire Emblem fans, considered one of the blandest main characters in the entire series...not to mention one of the least useable in the endgame because he promotes so ridiculously late. >_>

I'm willing to bet 95% of his fans know him mostly from Melee. No offense meant to those fans, but the association seems to be there.

So after that, and when Smash 4 is clearly not in desperate need for more characters...why would Nintendo pre-emptively shove these new ones into the spotlight before their time? What if Captain Toad falls out of favor somehow, or what if Splatoon bombs (although I hope it ends up a massive success)? Then wouldn't the development time have been better spent on characters the fans enjoy more, or characters with the potential to become instant fan favorites a la Captain Falcon or Ike or Robin?

That's why I rated Inkling so low, and Captain Toad only slightly higher. While I think they'll be viable candidates for SSB5, however many years in the future...for now, they're still too young.
 
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BluePikmin11

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Because odds are we'd get a second Punch-Out!! character before another Xenoblade character. It's incredibly niche, and honestly, it just got a character.
Punch-Out isn't in the exact same situation as Xenoblade, the franchise doesn't have an upcoming game to have Sakurai consider a second character.

Keep in mind during his reveal, Sakurai said "He's not the type of character that would usually appear in the Smash Bros. series" on Miiverse. Even then, X would probably get a character.

EDIT: And if that's what was said about Shulk...
That just simply means he's not someone Sakurai would normally add as a newcomer, as he is from a JRPG franchise, a genre that never got represented in the form of a character.
( unlike :4pikachu:,:4ness:, and arguably :4marth:)
It doesn't really hinder the idea of a 2nd Xenoblade character getting in, as he didn't state in that post that he would not be adding those kinds of characters.

What Opossum said, plus the factor that these are characters consumers will need to purchase separately. I feel like the only real "plausible" candidates are the popular options. As far as I can tell, while Xenoblade is a great franchise and X is a pretty hyped title, it's not that well known in the public eye.
We don't know if they will be purchased separately or not though.
Sakurai can easily get away with it and put some lesser known characters and add them into packs if he believes it's the best option, and I believe he won't just put characters in strictly because of popularity. (In fact, he already stated before about how he hasn't added any newcomer for their popularity.)

Precisely. Something that must be kept in mind when considering potential DLC is that these are individual add-ons separate from the main game. What's more, you have to pay for them. Unlike with the initial roster, where they could be a little more risky and include characters like Wii Fit Trainer and Duck Hunt alongside characters like Mega Man and Little Mac and still be safe, this time they have to convince customers that these additional characters are worth the purchase. It's just business, really. Naturally, the characters that are the most popular and have the most demand will be the most profitable; as such, they are the most logical, and therefore most likely, candidates. This is further evidenced by the character they chose to test the potential of DLC: Mewtwo, perhaps the most requested character around the world. There's simply no question that huge numbers of people will buy him as soon as he's available, or possibly even get both versions of the game just so they can get him for free. I believe that it's these kinds of characters that are the most likely for DLC.
And again not all characters have to be ones that can sell Smash intensely.
Just because you're popular doesn't mean you can get away with Sakurai's newcomer decision making easily.
 

False Sense

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And again not all characters have to be ones that can sell Smash intensely.
Just because you're popular doesn't mean you can get away with Sakurai's newcomer decision making easily.
But it's not like the popular characters only have popularity on their side. Most of them already have plenty of good qualifications which Sakurai would likely find appealing.

And frankly, for something like DLC, it's dumb to not choose characters that you know will sell well. Why choose a niche character that not many people know for DLC when you could add a character that everyone wants (this is assuming that both characters have good potential as Smash characters, like so many do)? It's foolish to simply disregard what the intelligent business move is.
 

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Although I am a huge fan of Xenoblade and I did point out multiple reasons to putting a new Xenoblade rep into Smash, I do agree with AEM, False Sense and Delzethin, that although Smash is pretty much fun and games all the time, what it boils down to at the end is making a profit. They'd be able to profit most from well known, well established, highly requested characters from franchises that everyone and their grandmother knows, which is why they made Mewtwo first to be DLC. Promotion really only works when it's packaged in-game, but this community, and the world in general as Smash is one-of-a-kind, has yet to see the difference between base game and DLC in terms of marketing strategies. Sure, Roy was a promotion for Binding Blade, maybe Pit was added to promote the upcoming Uprising, maybe Shulk was put in to open the world's eyes to the new Xenoblade, maybe even Duck Hunt was added to bring back nostalgia and ensure sales of the VC rerelease. But those are base game additions, and if you want Smash, you're going to have to get these characters, learn a little about them, even if it's just their appearance and a couple of their special moves.

Niche, promotional DLC, on the other hand, won't sell as well, as they don't come with the base game and so are completely optional to buy, and if a game is niche enough the only people that will buy that DLC will be supporters of that franchise and the diehard Smash fans or competitive community that needs to have every character out there. Sure, packs might be the way to go here, grouping, say, Fiora with Wolf and Ivysaur or something along those lines. But I highly doubt that will happen.

And those are my two cents on the other side of the argument.

tl;dr promotional dlc is a bad idea
 

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It's not dumb.
And I'm not assuming obscure characters will be the only DLC characters incase you want to talk back at me. :p
I'm well aware that some popular characters will part of the packs so they at least have a good selling point.

And frankly, you can make a majority be sold to the DLC if Sakurai executes and advertises the character correctly.
:4duckhunt::4wiifit::4greninja: are a few examples.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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If I can say something about the Xenoblade niche thing;

I think the fact that Shulk is a starter character, as well as the fact that one of the latest commercials for Smash 3DS showed a bit of Shulk's trailer (the segment plays when the announcer says "...[Donkey Kong, Pikachu,]and more..." may indeed be part of Nintendo's plan to get Xenoblade well known. There is the N3DS port coming up, so if that comes to the West and sells well, it may be a way to gauge the series' recognition and it could maybe be a factor in deciding a possible other Xenoblade rep. If you remember that time Okami was remade for the Wii and was marketed out the wazoo with tag lines like "The best PS2 game you've probably never played, now on the Wii" I see it as something kinda like that.

Of course it isn't certain, but to me I think it may be saying something.

Deviating from this current discussion for a moment ; I saw that @ Golden Sun Golden Sun said on the first page that Dixie Kong wouldn't play any differently from Diddy. If I may ask, why do you think that?
 
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False Sense

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It's not dumb.
And I'm not assuming obscure characters will be the only DLC characters incase you want to talk back at me. :p
I'm well aware that some popular characters will part of the packs so they at least have a good selling point.

And frankly, you can make a majority be sold to the DLC if Sakurai executes and advertises the character correctly.
:4duckhunt::4wiifit::4greninja: are a few examples.
That still assumes that DLC packs will exist, which we don't really know at this point. At this point, that seems less than likely considering just how much time it takes to develop a single character.

Also, those examples you provided probably wouldn't entice sales of the game as much if they didn't come packaged with stuff like Mega Man, Little Mac, improved gameplay, bright new graphics, promising online, and a host of other new features.
 

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If I can say something about the Xenoblade niche thing;

I think the fact that Shulk is a starter character, as well as the fact that one of the latest commercials for Smash 3DS showed a bit of Shulk's trailer (the segment plays when the announcer says "...[Donkey Kong, Pikachu,]and more..." may indeed be part of Nintendo's plan to get Xenoblade well known. There is the N3DS port coming up, so if that comes to the West and sells well, it may be a way to gauge the series' recognition and it could maybe be a factor in deciding a possible other Xenoblade rep. If you remember that time Okami was remade for the Wii and was marketed out the wazoo with tag lines like "The best PS2 game you've probably never played, now on the Wii" I see it as something kinda like that.

Of course it isn't certain, but to me I think it may be saying something.

Deviating from this current discussion for a moment ; I saw that @ Golden Sun Golden Sun said on the first page that Dixie Kong wouldn't play any differently from Diddy. If I may ask, why do you think that?
No offence but we don't need any more monkeys, I wouldn't care less if Dixie came in after better DLC characters come in, but that's just me, but I have a weird part where I want 3rd party characters come in, its like a more genuine experience then playing the game with Nintendo characters, its like answering the questions: "Who would win in a fight? Rayman or Megaman?"

But that's just me, im talking about Nintendo related companies that have connections, I know SSB is supposed to be a Nintendo game, but I feel like they should add more outside characters that have connections, but not bizarre characters like a random absurd COD or Master Chief character.
Like I said, that's just me.
also, monkeys are pretty annoying to a lot of people, especially that Diddy Kong's voice when he yells, Dixie is probably fast in her games, she jumps as diddy, etc.

I made incorrect words, im too tired since I got back from basketball practice.
 
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Golden Sun

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i hope sakurai realizes he has a very well done model of Chrom (meaning he costs much less to implement) and makes justice happen by adding him, but it's just so depressingly unlikely.
Its not happening, but like we all had, we all had high hopes for chrom, but sakurai putted a charm on robin instead, though I am glad we now have a "mage" fire emblem character.
 

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That still assumes that DLC packs will exist, which we don't really know at this point. At this point, that seems less than likely considering just how much time it takes to develop a single character.
That's assuming they are only doing one character per year, which I highly doubt would be the case.

Also, those examples you provided probably wouldn't entice sales of the game as much if they didn't come packaged with stuff like Mega Man, Little Mac, improved gameplay, bright new graphics, promising online, and a host of other new features.
Which is why I think DLC packs are the most likely since you mentioned packaged.
He can still add characters the general audience may not recognize like Fiora or Melia into the mix while still using Sakurai's same philosophies of what additions should be in the game.
 
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guedes the brawler

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Its not happening, but like we all had, we all had high hopes for chrom, but sakurai putted a charm on robin instead, though I am glad we now have a "mage" fire emblem character.
i persoanlly ain't... i was hoping Sakurai was goign to see Chrom as a challenge (as i did when initially promted on what he could do) or at least as away to bring back roy's playstyle in some form since he will probly never return... but alas, it was not to be.

i guess i'll wait till hacking is progressing and do it myself...
 

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i persoanlly ain't... i was hoping Sakurai was goign to see Chrom as a challenge (as i did when initially promted on what he could do) or at least as away to bring back roy's playstyle in some form since he will probly never return... but alas, it was not to be.

i guess i'll wait till hacking is progressing and do it myself...
I think we get the point now, guedes.

That's assuming they are only doing one character per year, which I highly doubt would be the case.


Which is why I think DLC packs are the most likely since you mentioned packaged.
He can still add characters the general audience may not recognize like Fiora or Melia into the mix while still using Sakurai's same philosophies of what additions should be in the game.
Though that still doesn't take into account the fundamental issue of just how many DLC characters they can produce. At the moment, we don't know what the limits are, but we do know that a single DLC character will have taken at least six months to fully complete, if not more. That includes the processes of deciding on the character, designing a complete move set and play style, the actual creation of the character, the balancing and debugging, and working the character into the game (in other words, making trophies for them, fitting them into All-Star mode, etc.). Additional characters are only going to take more time due to the increasing size of the roster and the continuous need to balance everything out. With all that considered, one has to wonder if they're really capable of producing enough DLC characters to create a pack that could allow for the grouping of a best-selling character with a more risky one.
 

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Sakurai can reach over the limit of what he's capable of though, despite what he has said in the past.
He already has put an extraordinary amount of content into two games already, it's to the point where I feel I don't really have to worry about him giving up on DLC easily.
 

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Let's look at an example...the only time Smash did "promote" a new character. Roy was added to Melee as one of six clones at the tail end of development. Then Fire Emblem: Binding Blade came out in Japan...to lukewarm reception. To this day, Roy is generally disliked among Fire Emblem fans, considered one of the blandest main characters in the entire series...not to mention one of the least useable in the endgame because he promotes so ridiculously late. >_>
Just to clarify. Japan actually loves FE6 and Roy quite a bit.

It's just us Westerners that don't like him.
 

Yomi's Biggest Fan

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Dixie vs. K. Rool is a sad topic to think about, especially since the former beats out the latter in terms of relevance. If Retro went out of their way to have iconic enemies like Zoomers and Ridley in Mwtroid prime, then I don't see why the hell can can't have the Kremlings in the Returns saga. I mean, literally nobody cared about the Tiki Tak Tribe (Tiki Tong is the worst Donkey Kong villain in history) and the Snowmads will be long forgotten in four years.

Whenever I see Lord Frederick, It's think of him as a horrible reminder of how much Retro hates the K. Rool. Based on his actions alone, he's a shameless ripoff that was made to make you think of him as a "proper replacement". It's like the developers were saying "Hey guys, want King K. Rool in Tropical Freeze? Nope! Then how about a bloated helmet wearing edgy walrus instead!".

Things would be much different if Retro even bother having him in the games instead of these wooden puppets and forgettable tundra animals. :rolleyes:
 
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At the moment, we don't know what the limits are, but we do know that a single DLC character will have taken at least six months to fully complete, if not more. That includes the processes of deciding on the character, designing a complete move set and play style, the actual creation of the character, the balancing and debugging, and working the character into the game (in other words, making trophies for them, fitting them into All-Star mode, etc.). Additional characters are only going to take more time due to the increasing size of the roster and the continuous need to balance everything out. With all that considered, one has to wonder if they're really capable of producing enough DLC characters to create a pack that could allow for the grouping of a best-selling character with a more risky one.
That said, we don't know for sure that Mewtwo is the only thing being worked on. Time will tell, but I wouldn't be surprised if they had something up their sleeves.

Just to clarify. Japan actually loves FE6 and Roy quite a bit.

It's just us Westerners that don't like him.
I didn't know that, actually. Thanks for the info; I thought the fanbase everywhere was pretty meh on him.


That brings me to a different question, though, and something else a lot of others are taking as fact: Why would missing veterans get preferential treatment?

It seems like many are acting like Lucas, Wolf, and the Ice Climbers are all but shoo-ins. Others are saying Snake has the inside track, or Roy, or even the likes of Young Link and Pichu. And a lot of people seem to think veteran characters would be more likely to return as DLC than the chance of any newcomers being made. I'm not so sure.

Wolf, I'll give you. Star Fox's representation was most likely trimmed down because the series hadn't been relevant for years up through when the initial roster was decided...but now there's a new game on the horizon. Wolf isn't a bad pick by any means, since he plays differently than Fox or Falco and adds a villain to the roster...but would he be worth it almost a year from now when the new game signals his likely return to relevance and the shock of him missing the roster has long since faded away? As much nostalgia as he's bringing up among the fanbase, he is a semi-clone...and of a character that has one already. Since what facts we know of (his Lylat Cruise codec model is based strictly on Assault and not his Brawl model) leans toward Wolf not ever having been worked on for Smash 4, he'd have to be made from scratch...and would a half-clone be as interesting and as worth a purchase to the consumers as a fully unique newcomer? These are things the developers have to consider.

Meanwhile, the other members of the "Absent Three" seem in much worse position. Where one of Fox's custom specials is based on one of Wolf's, Lucas has been outright scrapped for parts, with Ness getting all four of his specials as customs. Combine that with his series having officially ended, his game still never having left Japan, and with being a semi-clone in Brawl of the more well known Ness...it honestly seems more likely he'd pop up as an alternate costume pack for the boy from Onett. Meanwhile, the Ice Climbers have the advantage of having been planned to be in Smash 4...but couldn't be properly implemented in the 3DS version, as Nana's complicated AI caused the 3DS to overreach its limits and lag like crazy whenever multiple ICs were in battle. If that issue could be resolved, they could end up making it as DLC...but it's a very big "if". It'd involve the dev team taking significant risk in trying to fix a problem they were not able to during the main game's development, and if they still couldn't get them to work, they'd have nothing to show for it. And if Sakurai didn't want to size down Ridley because he thought it wouldn't be true to the character, how likely would he be to greenlight a single Ice Climber and go against the characterization they'd built over the previous two games?

Then there're the two of Red's Pokemon that were left by the wayside when transformations got the axe. Ivysaur may have a decent shot due to there still being no characters with plant-based powers...but there's something else to consider. Once Mewtwo arrives, we'll have 6 Pokemon characters...and four of them will be from just the first of its six generations. Would Sakurai want to make that 5 of 7, and pass up so many viable mons from other gens, for nostalgia's sake? And would he want to do the same for Squirtle when Greninja already took his niche of a water user, and did it in arguably a more inspired and interesting way? Would the fans be more interested in one from a different gen and that is also still relevant nowadays? Would there be something to gain from pulling from Gen 3, now that ORAS has made that generation relevant again?

If anyone was wondering why I placed Lucas, Ivysaur, and Squirtle so low on my chart...this is why. Roy I feel has next to no shot, when he offers so little that Marth and Lucina don't cover already and when Fire Emblem is already so heavily represented. As for Snake...I'll explain later.

It frustrates me to see people treat the situation as simpler than it actually is, assuming veterans would get top priority solely on veteran status. But with so many questions to consider, and with them having to be made from the ground up just like any newcomers...it's clearly more complicated than that.
 
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But it's not like the popular characters only have popularity on their side. Most of them already have plenty of good qualifications which Sakurai would likely find appealing.

And frankly, for something like DLC, it's dumb to not choose characters that you know will sell well. Why choose a niche character that not many people know for DLC when you could add a character that everyone wants (this is assuming that both characters have good potential as Smash characters, like so many do)? It's foolish to simply disregard what the intelligent business move is.
It wouldn't be foolish from a business point of view if they handled DLC characters similarly to how Mario Kart 8 did it, where the more unique characters were fan favourites whereas those that couldn't sell well on their own being added as more easily implemented extras. Applying it to Smash. a good example of this type of DLC treatment could be having a DLC pack that includes fan-favourite non-clone characters Like Wolf and Lucas with the bonus character being Toon Zelda as a semi-clone newcomer that's about as different as Ganondorf is.

As for the advertisement argument, that would only be risky with unproven characters from unproven franchises. In the hypothetical scenario where the hypothetical final game in the Returns Trilogy heavily features both K. Rool and Dixie, those characters could be used as part of a DLC pack to advertise said game and they wouldn't be as risky, considering that even if said game does not do well the DLC pack will still be effective regardless due to their already established popularity.
 

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Though that still doesn't take into account the fundamental issue of just how many DLC characters they can produce. At the moment, we don't know what the limits are, but we do know that a single DLC character will have taken at least six months to fully complete, if not more. That includes the processes of deciding on the character, designing a complete move set and play style, the actual creation of the character, the balancing and debugging, and working the character into the game (in other words, making trophies for them, fitting them into All-Star mode, etc.). Additional characters are only going to take more time due to the increasing size of the roster and the continuous need to balance everything out. With all that considered, one has to wonder if they're really capable of producing enough DLC characters to create a pack that could allow for the grouping of a best-selling character with a more risky one.
i don't think DLc will get implemented in all-star. i mean, mewtwo for example would make the already awful Pokemon/Oot round even more stupid with 8 characters, OR if he is included in the correct timeframe-slot and all rounds have 7 characters he'd mess up the order with stuff like Palutena and Pit being faced on different rounds
 

Jave

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The only way I see DLC characters implemented into All Star mode is if you download every single DLC character (which would confirm DLC is over) and that unlocks a complete All Star mode with absolutely every single character (Similar to how the unlockable characters are only added to All Star after you unlock them all).
 

kenniky

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It wouldn't be foolish from a business point of view if they handled DLC characters similarly to how Mario Kart 8 did it, where the more unique characters were fan favourites whereas those that couldn't sell well on their own being added as more easily implemented extras. Applying it to Smash. a good example of this type of DLC treatment could be having a DLC pack that includes fan-favourite non-clone characters Like Wolf and Lucas with the bonus character being Toon Zelda as a semi-clone newcomer that's about as different as Ganondorf is.
Would like to point out the Mario Kart 8 DLC only really introduces new models and adds them to a predetermined weight class - this is why I don't ever foresee Mario Kart tier lists because all characters of a weight class theoretically control the same.
The only way I see DLC characters implemented into All Star mode is if you download every single DLC character (which would confirm DLC is over) and that unlocks a complete All Star mode with absolutely every single character (Similar to how the unlockable characters are only added to All Star after you unlock them all).
wait, are unlockables added after you get them all, or as you progress? I thought it was the latter :/
Wolf, I'll give you. Star Fox's representation was most likely trimmed down because the series hadn't been relevant for years up through when the initial roster was decided...but now there's a new game on the horizon. Wolf isn't a bad pick by any means, since he plays differently than Fox or Falco and adds a villain to the roster...but would he be worth it almost a year from now when the new game signals his likely return to relevance and the shock of him missing the roster has long since faded away? As much nostalgia as he's bringing up among the fanbase, he is a semi-clone...and of a character that has one already. Since what facts we know of (his Lylat Cruise codec model is based strictly on Assault and not his Brawl model) leans toward Wolf not ever having been worked on for Smash 4, he'd have to be made from scratch...and would a half-clone be as interesting and as worth a purchase to the consumers as a fully unique newcomer? These are things the developers have to consider.
Saying Wolf is a semi-clone of Fox is like saying Luigi is a semi-clone of Mario - and then you can argue that Mario has 2 clones, and let's not forget that Link and Marth also have 2 clones, although they're spread over different games.
 
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Delzethin

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Saying Wolf is a semi-clone of Fox is like saying Luigi is a semi-clone of Mario - and then you can argue that Mario has 2 clones, and let's not forget that Link and Marth also have 2 clones, although they're spread over different games.
It's more Link/Toon Link or Falcon/Ganon than Mario/Luigi. While Wolf's attacks are generally different, his specials are based on the other Star Fox characters. Half of Luigi's B moves are completely different from Mario's.

And while other characters have had multiple clones before over the course of the series, none of those clones or semi-clones have been optional content. We don't know how well they'd sell compared to fully unique characters.
 

Geno Boost

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Star Hill. Why do you ask?
S:
Isaac

A:
:lucas:
:wolf:

B:
:popo:(as 1 charcter and nana as alt skin)
exitebike

C:
Dixie kong
Rayman
Impa

D:
Geno
:roypm:
mach rider
ray
Dk jr.

E:
Captian toad
:snake:
:pichumelee:
:linkmelee:
king k. rool
marshal
:kirby64:
lip
ninten
Bandana dee

F:
:ivysaur:
:squirtle:
any other 3rd party
sceptile
Captian rainbow
 
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Diddy Kong

Smash Obsessed
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SW-1597-979602774
My likeliness ratings:

S:
1): The Ice Climbers:popo:
2): Wolf O'Donnel:wolf:

Simply said, these two characters had the least reasonable reason to be cut from the roster. I believe Wolf is strictly time-constraints, but Ice Climbers had issues with the 3DS hardware. I think that if Ice Climbers, according to Sakurai 'worked perfectly in the Wii U version' means that there's a full moveset for the Ice Climbers already available. And that shouldn't be underrated, as they where supposed to be in. I am betting that they'll be the next characters up for DLC after :mewtwopm:.

Wolf easily comes next, cause he was an extremely well requested character for Brawl. He was infact the very last character to be added in Brawl, so that's maybe why Wolf wasn't included this time. Sakurai also could wait for the release of Star Fox Wii U to include Wolf, similary to how he added up character pages on release dates of other games (Peach for a Mario game, Diddy for Tropical Freeze, ect.). I cannot see that a very popular requested character will be cut for all eternity if the franchise is still running, and Mewtwo is making it back.

A:

1): Lucas:lucas:
2): Dixie Kong
3): Impa

I think these characters have a clear edge over many others. Why? They are all from established franchises, and are all the most logical pick from their franchises. They've featured in their series' last entry, and are mostly familiar to people who play Smash Bros. Another reason is all could be made as semi-clones or clones of already established characters (:4ness::4diddy::4sheik:). And it happens that all 3 of these characters are quite the popular ones this time around. To top it all, neither of their franchises had a newcomer this time around. And especially in DKC and Zelda's case that's odd. And it's not like Dixie and Impa aren't heavily requested characters. I bet you they are more popular than half of the newcomers we've had from this point...

The only reason I'm putting Lucas higher on this list is because of the possibility that he'd be included with a potential Mother 3 international release for the VC. I think this can easily happen, after all, Earth Bound never made it to Europe either before it's release on VC. And the fact that he's a veteran from Brawl. Otherwise, I'd easily rank Dixie above him.

C:

1): Isaac
2): Bandana Dee
3): King K.Rool
4): Captain Toad

Isaac's absence is really weird. Not only as an AT, but he doesn't even pop up as a throphy. Camelot recently advertised their 20th anniversary on their website with a Venus Djinni, a clear sign that they might be interessted in making a Golden Sun 4. Not exactly a coin flip in the department of chance, but I could see it happen. And it would make make me hyped as ****!

Bandana Dee is next cause like Dixie and Impa, he's from a popular well established franchise. And he's the next logical pick. Problem with Bandana Dee however is that Waddle Dees are enemies in Smash Run, and that he would require an original moveset, unlike Dixie and Impa who could be made as semi-clones. Plus the fact that Brawl had the priviledge of having 2 Kirby newcomers.

King K.Rool is next, and I'm sad I couldn't place him any higher. As a DLC character he doesn't really make sense unless he'd be used as a boss character in the next DKCR game. Like Waddle Dee, he's requires an original moveset as well. And that's a lot of work. Sure, he's the most popular pick after Mewtwo at this point. Easily. But I am just worried that Dixie will be chosen over him due to the fact she's much easier to create, and thus the need for a DKC newcomer is easier fulfilled with her inclusion.

WILL EDIT THIS LATER!
 

Leafeon523

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I think I'll do my list by franchise rather than simply by character. Feel free to laugh at/ridicule my choices:

S: Nobody. If I've learned one thing from smash speculation, it's to expect the unexpected.

A: Donkey Kong, Golden Sun

B: Mario, Star fox, earthbound

C: Custom robo, Pokémon, Legend of Zelda, Splatoon, metal gear, Kid Icarus

D: Retro, Kirby, fire emblem, Rhythm heaven, Rayman, chibi robo, advance wars

E: Any character that is already an AT, Xenoblade, pikmin, punch-out, sonic, megaman, f-zero, Bayonetta, warioware, indie game rep

F: Animal Crossing, Wii fit, ROB, Game and Watch, pacman, Wonderful 101, Ice climbers

The Miiverse swamp: Shrek, Dragon Ball Z
 
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AEMehr

Mii Fighter
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rip retros
or more like rip muddy

less likely than bubbles who was stated to not know how to fight, ouch
 

Argos

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Nov 5, 2014
Messages
127
My updated likeliness chart with some new characters and placements:

*Pokeball Icon represents Pokemon newcomer.
Feel free to discuss.
I must not be as up to date as I thought I was, who is the first person on the sixth tier and the first two on the tier below Snake/Rayman?
 

Argos

Smash Apprentice
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Messages
127
Monster Hunter.
The first two below Rayman/Snake are Melia and Fiora.
Ah alright, thanks; definitely need to pick Xenoblade back up soon. The things about your list that stick out to me are I'm sure the same things you've been over with others ad nauseam: the third party and supporting JRPG characters. We've really never seen any third party character that wasn't one of the very most recognizable, long-lived characters , something that I also see getting confirmed with Pac-Man getting in over any of the Tales Of characters as a Namco representative. If Smash keeps going long enough I'm sure that this rule, like all others, will eventually fall by the wayside but I'm not sure that's going to be soon. Monster Hunter is actually a really interesting choice considering the games all-encompassing popularity in Japan, but something like the Bravely Default character has me scratching my head. The Xenoblade and Fire Emblem: Awakening characters are also somewhat odd to me, Fire Emblem: Awakening already has two characters (maybe one and a half if you want to object to Lucina) for a single game, and although the notion of 'reps' is generally overstated it seems reasonable to bring up here. DLC, as others have brought up, will probably make it harder for more obscure characters to grab the spotlight as they need to be bought specifically. You can bring up bundles but if the precedent of Mario Kart DLC has taught us anything it's that those bundled in characters are likely to be clones - we got Tanooki Mario and Cat Peach, not Wart and Tatanga. Are your more 'out there' choices easily made into clones? That makes them more likely to me.
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
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We've really never seen any third party character that wasn't one of the very most recognizable, long-lived characters , something that I also see getting confirmed with Pac-Man getting in over any of the Tales Of characters as a Namco representative. If Smash keeps going long enough I'm sure that this rule, like all others, will eventually fall by the wayside but I'm not sure that's going to be soon. Monster Hunter is actually a really interesting choice considering the games all-encompassing popularity in Japan, but something like the Bravely Default character has me scratching my head.
I said it quite a while ago in another thread
Since Sakurai has already gotten most of the newcomers he found worthy to be in the base game and has given some Nintendo characters other roles (such as ATs and hazards), I believe that the criteria for DLC will change just a bit because there are very few feasible choices left in the Nintendo character catalogue now.
In my opinion, it has gotten to the point where other third-parties that aren't the iconic 3 are the next best options for DLC to sell well.

The Xenoblade and Fire Emblem: Awakening characters are also somewhat odd to me, Fire Emblem: Awakening already has two characters (maybe one and a half if you want to object to Lucina) for a single game, and although the notion of 'reps' is generally overstated it seems reasonable to bring up here.
As it has been said before, it's mainly because of the upcoming Xenoblade games (the 3DS remake of XC and XCX) and Xenoblade already proved itself to get a character on the main roster, it's why I think a 2nd character has a good chance of happening.

For the FE:A characters, while a third is very unlikely (the characters below Anna and Tharja are in the very unlikely rank, just so you know), I could see IS continue to promote FE:A by adding them in the game, as the game continues to be referenced and selling products like the Lucina and Tharja figmas and the costumes in Monster Hunter 3G.

DLC, as others have brought up, will probably make it harder for more obscure characters to grab the spotlight as they need to be bought specifically. You can bring up bundles but if the precedent of Mario Kart DLC has taught us anything it's that those bundled in characters are likely to be clones - we got Tanooki Mario and Cat Peach, not Wart and Tatanga. Are your more 'out there' choices easily made into clones? That makes them more likely to me.
Mario Kart 8's DLC probably had heavy focus (and had the most development time) on the race tracks, not the characters. It probably explain why Cat Peach and Tanooki Mario are DLC characters.
I doubt there would be new clones in the game.
There would be new clones if Sakurai runs out of time when making a DLC pack, which I admit could happen, but which ones specifically do you think could happen?
 
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