Create your DLC likeliness chart!

[BluePikmin11]

An Awakening character is more likely to be advertised and promoted to character playability than GS and AW getting a new game right now, unless I see a new game announced for either those franchises, I won't change the rank they are on right now.
Same for K. Rool, only that he comes back in a new major DKC title.

 

[False Sense]

An Awakening character is more likely to be advertised and promoted to character playability than GS and AW getting a new game right now, unless I see a new game announced for either those franchises, I won't change the rank they are on right now.
Same for K. Rool, only that he comes back in a new major DKC title.

So you're basing this entirely off of promotional value? There's other factors worth considering, you know.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Not entirely, but it is big factor, it's been said by Sakurai that characters with no probable future will be put into the very low priority list if they don't have an upcoming game.

 

[RobinOnDrugs]

What other factors did you consider aside from promotional value?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Not entirely, but it is big factor, it's been said by Sakurai that characters with no probable future will be put into the very low priority list if they don't have an upcoming game.

You honestly think we're going to see Tharja again?

At least K.Rool, Isaac, Andy and the like can come back easily.

Unless Awakening gets a sequel that doesn't follow the kids (as it really should) Tharja will never be revisited.

 

[Delzethin]

Not entirely, but it is big factor, it's been said by Sakurai that characters with no probable future will be put into the very low priority list if they don't have an upcoming game.

But at the same time, Smash has never added characters solely to promote their games. What'd be more likely is older characters getting new games, then those of them with enough moveset potential and a sizeable enough fanbase getting added to Smash as DLC because they've returned to relevance.

 

[Deleted member]

My updated likeliness chart with some new characters and placements:

*Pokeball Icon represents Pokemon newcomer.
Feel free to discuss.

It is me, but I can't stand Chorus Kids.

Also, I appreciate your Xenoblade enthusiasm, but I disagree with Melia being as likely as Fiora and X character.
And you should add Tiki, above Tharja and Anna.

 

[AEMehr]

An Awakening character is more likely to be advertised and promoted to character playability than GS and AW getting a new game right now, unless I see a new game announced for either those franchises, I won't change the rank they are on right now.
Same for K. Rool, only that he comes back in a new major DKC title.

Didn't we have this discussion about why Tharja is probably not going to appear in Smash before?
About how she's a cut trophy to more than likely keep the game's rating at E10+?? Remember that???

 

[Diddy Kong]

Tharja above King K.Rool. Sure, makes sence.

King K.Rool might not get a recent promotion to being a playable character, sure he won't. It'll probably have to wait till we see him again in a new game. And it looks to me extremely likely that Retro will use King K.Rool and the Kremlings next time for their DKC 'Returns' subseries.

And if there's not gonna be a recent DKC Returns title, it seems likely that Kremlings will show up in anything else DKC related that is to come. Remember PAON who made King of Swing and Jungle Climber? They could very well do a new game if King of Swing will do well on VC now, and Jungle Climber doing even better (I swear they should promote THE **** out of Jungle Climber). And Kremlings where all included in the PAON games (they even made new Kremlings in Barrel Blast). If the rumored Diddy Kong Racing 2 also sees the day, Kremlings or K.Rool could appear as the game's main enemy.

Also the lack of any new true heavy weight newcomer is also the best fulfilled with the King. Sure, Bowser Jr. is somewhat heavy, but all of the other newcomers are mostly lightweighted speed characters. There's a lot of room for King K.Rool to be added. All he needs now is that one appearance.

And it's far more likely we gonna see the main big bad of the extremely succesful Donkey Kong Country series again in a new game instead of sexy dressed implied crazy nympho Dark Mage woman who's just part of your army or potential 'waifu' in what might even be the last installment of Fire Emblem.

 

[Leafeon523]

My updated likeliness chart with some new characters and placements:

*Pokeball Icon represents Pokemon newcomer.
Feel free to discuss.

Young Link is above just about everybody and nobody bats an eye
Thajra is above K. Rool and everyone loses their minds!

Even if I don't agree with some of your decisions (Layton neat the top, but no Phoenix Wright?) you still made a very good list.
Also, who is the character 2 spaces left of Layton?

 

[BluePikmin11]

What other factors did you consider aside from promotional value?

The other main factors would have to be uniqueness (given how Sakurai exaggerated it in many interviews) and significance. (given from the Mii Fighter reveal trailer at E3 2014.) They are like the huge percentages of the grade for a class.

But at the same time, Smash has never added characters solely to promote their games.

Yeah, obviously I wasn't considering just promoting. There's significance and uniqueness and other factors to add in.

What'd be more likely is older characters getting new games, then those of them with enough moveset potential and a sizeable enough fanbase getting added to Smash as DLC because they've returned to relevance.

That's actually less likely to happen than using characters from popular, significant franchises to promote their games.
Niche franchises that haven't not had a game in a long time or had a bad, flopped game can have a very uncertain future, thus being less likely to appear in Smash Bros.

It is me, but I can't stand Chorus Kids.

Also, I appreciate your Xenoblade enthusiasm, but I disagree with Melia being as likely as Fiora and X character.
And you should add Tiki, above Tharja and Anna.

Melia is one of the most popular characters in an already character-represented franchise, that's why I consider her being a contender with Fiora and a Xenoblade X character.
I could potentially Tiki up there though. I'll think about it.

King K.Rool might not get a recent promotion to being a playable character, sure he won't.

That is exactly why I'm not changing the rank K. Rool is on.

It'll probably have to wait till we see him again in a new game. And it looks to me extremely likely that Retro will use King K.Rool and the Kremlings next time for their DKC 'Returns' subseries.

For what reasons with evidence of K. Rool likely returning to a main DKC game?
You can bring up the Retro President following the KK, but that's not substantial evidence he is returning to a DKCR game.

And if there's not gonna be a recent DKC Returns title, it seems likely that Kremlings will show up in anything else DKC related that is to come. Remember PAON who made King of Swing and Jungle Climber? They could very well do a new game if King of Swing will do well on VC now, and Jungle Climber doing even better (I swear they should promote THE **** out of Jungle Climber). And Kremlings where all included in the PAON games (they even made new Kremlings in Barrel Blast). If the rumored Diddy Kong Racing 2 also sees the day, Kremlings or K.Rool could appear as the game's main enemy.

I personally think spin-offs have no huge influence, especially if it has to do with something minor such as VC, unless Nintendo somehow manages push the games with advertising like Earthbound. (In which that was one of the only games that Nintendo pushed farther than other VC titles.)

 

[Diddy Kong]

Because so far, Retro has done a lot of things in their second installment of DKCR to make sure to appeal to the 'core' DKC fans. As adding Dixie Kong back as a playable character, and going as far as to recruit David Wise for the soundtrack. There's the fact that a lot of the enemies, the Snowmads, draw a lot of traits from the Kremling Klan. Even their leader has striking similarities to K.Rool. And there's the references, an obvious one being this:

And did I mentoin before that King K.Rool is the big bad of the DKC series? Yeah, that alone should be enough to expect him back. The outcry for Kremlings is HUGE now, Kampain for King K.Rool or not. The president of Retro Studios following the Kampain really isn't something to take lightly either.

Now explain to me why Tharja, who's nothing more than a regular unit in your army in Fire Emblem Awakening is more likely to appear as playable than King K.Rool?

I also don't really understand how you preceive Young Link not only as the most likely character to re-appear from all the Zelda characters, but also as more likely than Pichu and Roy. Roy easily has popularity going for him, and he could be slightly Luigified unlike Young Link. A 3rd Link is really, really pushing it. Especially considering Sakurai's comment on how now basically already is the 'child version of Link'.

 

[Deleted member]

You honestly think we're going to see Tharja again?

At least K.Rool, Isaac, Andy and the like can come back easily.

Unless Awakening gets a sequel that doesn't follow the kids (as it really should) Tharja will never be revisited.

I don't undersand the Tharja choice. She had her trophy deleted from Smash Bros. because of the fact that she wears nothing more than a thong bikini. I know the reasoning for her appearance, aside from the obvious fanservices, is probably a subtle contrast to her personality, where she's distant. Unless she comes back in a Fire Emblem sequel and that her attire is modified to something a bit more conservative, you're not gonna see her at all because Nintendo wants Smash Bros. to have an E10+ rating.

Also, I wouldn't want to waste breath arguing on BluePikmin's tier list. He's got his reasons, and while he'll respect yours, you aren't gonna get So and So higher or lower on his list. It's his list.

But at the same time, Smash has never added characters solely to promote their games. What'd be more likely is older characters getting new games, then those of them with enough moveset potential and a sizeable enough fanbase getting added to Smash as DLC because they've returned to relevance.

This is kinda the issue I have with choices like the Inklings, even though I have mentioned them myself as possible DLC contenders. Smash Bros., at is core, is a representation and celebration of Nintendo, as opposed to being a marketing tool for other Nintendo games. I'm not saying the Inklings or a Commander S.T.E.A.M. or a Xenoblade Chronicles X character isn't deserving, but there is always that possibility that these games could be flops, and the next thing you know, you devoted all this time into developing a character that is essentially an albatross.

I can understand BluePikmin's philosophy, as Sakurai has used this primarily to push characters and was probably one reason why commonly requested (and reasonable) choices were not factored in. But, there's also the possibility that Smash DLC will not be dictated entirely by Sakurai, and Nintendo will look at this as more of a promotional and financial windfall than simply to peddle other projects. In this situation, I would have to look at the Isaacs and the King K. Rools as likely choices, because of the fact that they might focus on building new characters to sell DLC. But, this won't be the only reasons, although I do have to comment against BluePikmin on his tier list.

If we are in this scenario where we don't have Sakurai's guidance on the matter, we might as well throw away our tier lists and try looking at it from different possibilities.

Now explain to me why Tharja, who's nothing more than a regular unit in your army in Fire Emblem Awakening is more likely to appear as playable than King K.Rool?

Because Tharja has been involved recently as opposed to King K. Rool, and unlike some other contenders, like Isaac, whose game was somehow this huge collosal failure (yet Sakurai had no problems putting a Golden Sun track in his grand masterpiece), her game can be promoted to the moon. Also, Melia, who is just some naive waifu, can stand toe-to-toe with Fiora, who is a critical character to Xenoblade (and Sakurai is alright with spoilers), because fans like her. Though I understand Hades being higher than Medusa because Hades is a Sakurai creation while Medusa was demoted to nominal appearances, even though Medusa is a better choice, IMO.

BTW, I liked the Tiki Tak Tribe, since somebody complained about them earlier in this thread.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Because so far, Retro has done a lot of things in their second installment of DKCR to make sure to appeal to the 'core' DKC fans. As adding Dixie Kong back as a playable character, and going as far as to recruit David Wise for the soundtrack.

Do you have a source for the bolded? The first two points have nothing to with the Kremlings coming back, unless that meant bringing back the older DKC elements coming back.
And while they did bring back some elements with the newer DKC games, Retro already said specifically they didn't want to re-use the same enemies again when it came to developing DKCR, and they did the same thing with TF. It doesn't look certain that we'll be seeing those enemies again.

There's the fact that a lot of the enemies, the Snowmads, draw a lot of traits from the Kremling Klan. Even their leader has striking similarities to K.Rool. And there's the references, an obvious one being this:

Just because you bring back the similar traits to the newer enemies and reference a villain does not mean it's proof they are likely to return, unless it's directly teased like Dark Pit in Palutena's trailer and Metal Face in Shulk's trailer..

And did I mention before that King K.Rool is the big bad of the DKC series? Yeah, that alone should be enough to expect him back.

That isn't evidence, that's just simply describing to me on who K. Rool is in general.

The president of Retro Studios following the Kampain really isn't something to take lightly either.

While it raises an eyebrow, it's not really full proof that the enemies are really coming back as enemies for newer DKC games.
None of the evidence you showed me proof that Kremlings are likely to come back at all. Right now, the situation for the Kremlings is uncertain.

Now explain to me why Tharja, who's nothing more than a regular unit in your army in Fire Emblem Awakening is more likely to appear as playable than King K.Rool?

Her popularity, and unlike Roy, she also has relevance going for her. But where she is on the chart is where the characters with very low chances are, she's only a bit more likely than K. Rool to be exact, but it's not saying much.

I also don't really understand how you preceive Young Link not only as the most likely character to re-appear from all the Zelda characters, but also as more likely than Pichu and Roy. Roy easily has popularity going for him, and he could be slightly Luigified unlike Young Link. A 3rd Link is really, really pushing it. Especially considering Sakurai's comment on how now basically already is the 'child version of Link'.

Here's the answer in short:

Spoiler

A major 3DS release that has been pushed in advertisement by Nintendo, starring a character who arguably has the most signficance and importance out of all Zelda characters. That's why I ranked him pretty high on the tier list.

I should update the chart with percentages soon, I feel some of you are really misunderstanding my rankings.

 

[JamesDNaux]

S:
A:

Dixie
B: King K. RoolInkling
C: Isaac, Zelda character (?)
D: Wonder Red, Bandanna Dee, Captain Toad
E: Krystal Chibi-Robo
F: Chorus MenBayonetta

[collapse=Reasoning]
Mewtwo is already confirmed. My reason for putting him here is to show that I don't think any character to be a shoe-in.

Before anyone shouts bias: Rayman has a trophy in the game, in fact, he has three. I fully believe that Ubisoft tried to get him in the game but were too late to make the roster. Simply put, if we do get more DLC, they already have the rights to use Rayman.
Snake was already put in Brawl as a favor to Kojima, if Sakurai decides to add him as DLC, it's going to happen. If not...

I would have put Wolf down with the other Brawl vets, but the new Star Fox may work in his favor.

If I were to be biased, I would put K. Rool over Dixie, but with Sakurai's mindset, I see Dixie getting in before him.

The CEO of Retro followed the Kremling Kampaigner, so it's possible that the King may come back...

The Ice Climbers are only so low because of their technical issues. I believe they can find a way to fix them, however.

Inklings are unique, from a new franchise, etc. They have a lot going for them, it's just a matter of DLC happening.

Lucas really only has his veteran status, with his franchise being over. If he doesn't come back, he'll be down with Roy.

Isaac being gone is suspicious, but it could mean nothing. He's still a strong candidate, since he has no assist trophy.

Specifically made this one vague, since I have doubts about Impa. We could get a new Zelda character though.

Though a new game, it probably doesn't have the moving power to make it as playable. Similar to Isaac in some ways.

Sadly, Sakurai is biased to the Kirby games that he created. Bandanna Dee became a major character after Sakurai left HAL.

I really don't see how putting on a hat makes Toad any more likely to be removed from Peach's arsenal. Blue Toad, anyone?

Krystal was one of my most wanted, but it seems like she was never meant to be. Possible, if Wolf comes back...

Roy/Brawl Pokemon. They'll probably need a miracle to come back. But we got Dr. Mario, so you never know...

Chibi-Robo, possible. Not sure how likely, probably not very.

If the Chorus Men had never shown up within Gematsu, most wouldn't even be considering them.

I want Pokemon Trainer to come back on his own greatly. But that will never happen.

Pichu and Young Link probably have the lowest chances of any veterans, for different reasons.


[/collapse]

 

[Delzethin]

This is kinda the issue I have with choices like the Inklings, even though I have mentioned them myself as possible DLC contenders. Smash Bros., at is core, is a representation and celebration of Nintendo, as opposed to being a marketing tool for other Nintendo games. I'm not saying the Inklings or a Commander S.T.E.A.M. or a Xenoblade Chronicles X character isn't deserving, but there is always that possibility that these games could be flops, and the next thing you know, you devoted all this time into developing a character that is essentially an albatross.

Exactly. Putting a character in Smash solely for promotion would be a huge risk that isn't worth taking when there're so many other viable choices. If Captain Toad or the Inklings stay popular or the Xenoblade series becomes one of Nintendo's flagship RPG series, they'll have very good chances of getting in (or in the latter's case, getting one of its major character in) to Smash 5. Until then, there're too many question marks.

To use a more likely example...incoming bias here, but let's look at Sceptile for a minute. Sceptile actually has a lot going for it. The uniqueness is there, due to Smash 4 not having a character with plant-based powers on the roster so far. Moveset potential is very high due to being a Pokemon and having a ton of moves from the games to work with. There's also a level of popularity--Grass starters traditionally aren't as popular as the others, but out of them, Sceptile is among the most well-liked.

Sceptile also hadn't been relevant for nearly a decade when the roster was decided on. When relevancy seems to be the single most important factor for newcomers, it was pretty damning.

Now, though? ORAS has Hoenn and Gen 3 back in the limelight. Sceptile's biggest drawback is gone.

The only issue now is who would get the theoretical nod between Scep and Ivysaur...but that's a different question entirely.

Here's the answer in short:

Spoiler

A major 3DS release that has been pushed in advertisement by Nintendo, starring a character who arguably has the most signficance and importance out of all Zelda characters. That's why I ranked him pretty high on the tier list.

But what would he have to offer that both current Links don't already cover. That's the issue here: Toon Link not only grabbed the niche Young Link had in Melee, he also does more with it by representing a different section of the timeline and having a significantly different playstyle than his more realistic-looking incarnation.

And anything involving the masks is likely out of the question, with how transformations are gone by design.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Exactly. Putting a character in Smash solely for promotion would be a huge risk that isn't worth taking when there're so many other viable choices.

I took other factors in consideration too, like how Tharja is a popular character from a successful installment of a very popular franchise.
Notice the italics, those were the factors I was talking about.

If Captain Toad or the Inklings stay popular or the Xenoblade series becomes one of Nintendo's flagship RPG series, they'll have very good chances of getting in (or in the latter's case, getting one of its major character in) to Smash 5. Until then, there're too many question marks.

Are you talking about their series or the characters, because I'm sure character popularity and series popularity are two different subject matters. If it's about character popularity, like you said, it isn't solely one factor that will give those characters a very good chance of getting in, right?

To use a more likely example...incoming bias here, but let's look at Sceptile for a minute. Sceptile actually has a lot going for it. The uniqueness is there, due to Smash 4 not having a character with plant-based powers on the roster so far. Moveset potential is very high due to being a Pokemon and having a ton of moves from the games to work with. There's also a level of popularity--Grass starters traditionally aren't as popular as the others, but out of them, Sceptile is among the most well-liked.

Sceptile also hadn't been relevant for nearly a decade when the roster was decided on. When relevancy seems to be the single most important factor for newcomers, it was pretty damning.

Now, though? ORAS has Hoenn and Gen 3 back in the limelight. Sceptile's biggest drawback is gone.

The only issue now is who would get the theoretical nod between Scep and Ivysaur...but that's a different question entirely.

Though I'm getting out of track, uniqueness and relevancy are literally the only two factors you mentioned, it doesn't sound like Sceptile has much going for him.
Sceptile's popularity only grew because people were complaining how there wasn't a grass type added along with Charizard and Greninja to fit in the three-type triangle. His popularity is over-exaggerated, we'd more likely see Blaziken get added than to see Sceptile added to the roster.
Though, if you seen the chart, I put a Pokemon newcomer as something more likely to happen than a 3rd Awakening character. You technically are right, so I'm not complaining, though now I'll consider adding Sceptile above Cranky Kong to the list now.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I took other factors in consideration too, like how Tharja is a popular character from a successful installment of a very popular franchise.
Notice the italics, those were the factors I was talking about.

Well that's all good and nice but....



We already got that covered.... So you have to add why we should add Tharja on top of Lucina and Robin who are infinitely more popular and important to the plot. Morover why add her over characters who are more popular like Owain and Severa or more important to the plot like Lissa, Tiki or Fredrick or villains like Vallidar who can do everything Tharja can do movesetwise? Heck why do we even need more Awakening characters? Let alone Fire Emblem characters.

And as much as I love Fire Emblem, calling it very popular is laughable. It's beloved, but rather unknown.

 

[False Sense]

Uniqueness and relevancy are literally the only two factors you mentioned, it doesn't sound like Sceptile has much going for him.
Sceptile's popularity only grew because people were complaining how there wasn't a grass type added along with Charizard and Greninja to fit in the three-type triangle. His popularity is over-exaggerated, we'd more likely see Blaziken get added than to see Sceptile added to the roster.

I can say with certainty that Sceptile is a popular Pokemon, even well before ORAS. It shouldn't be hard to see why; he's essentially a forest-dragon-warrior. Even if he isn't as popular as say, Blaziken, he is definitely one of the more popular Pokemon out there, and that popularity only grew with ORAS and his new Dragon-type Mega Evolution. So I'd say that he has uniqueness, relevance, and popularity in his favor.

Which, come to think of it... I'm genuinely curious as to why you didn't include Sceptile on your DLC list. You claim that he isn't that popular, when his popularity is actually pretty notable, and he fits the other criteria you mention of being unique and promoting a recent title. Yet, on a list that includes characters like Tharja, who is a minor character from a game that already received two new representatives, is not the most popular character from said game, and isn't even that unique, you exclude Sceptile. I personally don't find Sceptile to be all that likely of a DLC candidate myself, but I see no reason why he should be excluded from consideration.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Well that's all good and nice but....



We already got that covered.... So you have to add why we should add Tharja on top of Lucina and Robin who are infinitely more popular and important to the plot.

To advertise IS's most successful installment of FE even more, it's that simple. With a success like Awakening, IS would more likely want to stretch the game's popularity by selling products (like the Lucina and Tharja figmas) and potentially promoting some characters in other games like Monster Hunter, SMT x FE crossover, and of course, Smash Bros.

Morover why add her over characters who are more popular like Owain and Severa or more important to the plot like Lissa, Tiki or Fredrick or villains like Vallidar who can do everything Tharja can do movesetwise? Heck why do we even need more Awakening characters? Let alone Fire Emblem characters.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/fe/kakusei_bk/kekka/index.html
http://www.gonintendo.com/s/199213-fire-emblem-awakening-character-poll-results
If you actually look at the polls, Tharja is a very popular character, even having her own figma before Lucina to show how popular she is.

I can say with certainty that Sceptile is a popular Pokemon, even well before ORAS. It shouldn't be hard to see why; he's essentially a forest-dragon-warrior. Even if he isn't as popular as say, Blaziken, he is definitely one of the more popular Pokemon out there, and that popularity only grew with ORAS and his new Dragon-type Mega Evolution. So I'd say that he has uniqueness, relevance, and popularity in his favor.

Which, come to think of it... I'm genuinely curious as to why you didn't include Sceptile on your DLC list. You claim that he isn't that popular, when his popularity is actually pretty notable, and he fits the other criteria you mention of being unique and promoting a recent title. Yet, on a list that includes characters like Tharja, who is a minor character from a game that already received two new representatives, is not the most popular character from said game, and isn't even that unique, you exclude Sceptile. I personally don't find Sceptile to be all that likely of a DLC candidate myself, but I see no reason why he should be excluded from consideration.

I actually included a Pokemon newcomer slot there if you looked at the chart, but now that you and Delzelthin mentioned Sceptile, I'm probably going to rearrange the chart again.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

To advertise IS's most successful installment of FE even more, it's that simple. With a success like Awakening, IS would more likely want to stretch the game's popularity by selling products (like the Lucina and Tharja figmas) and potentially promoting some characters in other games like Monster Hunter, SMT x FE crossover, and of course, Smash Bros..

Awakening is two years old.

If they push it MORE it will be marketing suicide.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/fe/kakusei_bk/kekka/index.html
http://www.gonintendo.com/s/199213-fire-emblem-awakening-character-poll-results
If you actually look at the polls, Tharja is a very popular character, even having her own figma before Lucina to show how popular she is.

Alright, I concede that she's popular, but she is still very minor. Moreover, there's not much reason to have her gameplay wise.

 

[Delzethin]

His popularity is over-exaggerated, we'd more likely see Blaziken get added than to see Sceptile added to the roster.

Blaziken's out of the running as far as it looks; showing up as a stage element on the Kalos League stage. Even aside from that, Blaziken would be less unique on a roster with multiple fire-users compared to said roster getting its first character with nature powers.

...In hindsight, we're probably getting too caught up on one character and I'm letting my bias get the better of me.

To advertise IS's most successful installment of FE even more, it's that simple. With a success like Awakening, IS would more likely want to stretch the game's popularity by selling products (like the Lucina and Tharja figmas) and potentially promoting some characters in other games like Monster Hunter, SMT x FE crossover, and of course, Smash Bros.

But Smash has never been about advertising. >_>

 

[False Sense]

But Smash has never been about advertising. >_>

Well...



Though to be fair, that was back in Melee.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Well...



Though to be fair, that was back in Melee.

He wasn't put in for advertising though.

He was put in because he stood out the most out of the lords available at the time.

 

[Delzethin]

Well...



Though to be fair, that was back in Melee.

He wasn't put in for advertising though.

He was put in because he stood out the most out of the lords available at the time.

That, and they needed clones to pad the roster and he just happened to be available.

 

[BluePikmin11]

But Smash has never been about advertising. >_>

Yes, but it is actually a "hit hard or go home" factor in considering a character for Smash Bros. 4
http://smashboards.com/threads/bowser-jr-was-almost-cut-from-smash-4.385005/

the characters that don't have a new title coming up have an overwhelming disadvantage...even characters that we ended up including could have been left out if development had progressed differently

It's related to advertising.

 

[False Sense]

Yes, but it is actually a "hit hard or go home" factor in considering a character for Smash Bros. 4
http://smashboards.com/threads/bowser-jr-was-almost-cut-from-smash-4.385005/

It's related to advertising.

Even if it is a factor, would they really add a character to the game primarily for advertising?

 

[Delzethin]

Yes, but it is actually a "hit hard or go home" factor in considering a character for Smash Bros. 4
http://smashboards.com/threads/bowser-jr-was-almost-cut-from-smash-4.385005/

It's related to advertising.

It's relevance, not advertising. Characters who didn't have a recent game weren't as high priority because not as many people would know them, particularly the newer fans. If you're looking for a newcomer, isn't it better to have it be someone a player can recognize, or at least someone a player can ask their friends or maybe (when it comes to retro characters) parents about than it is to leave them going "Huh?"

But for those who are still fans despite those characters not being relevant, it's a dilemma. That goes especially for characters like K. Rool who have a lot going for them except relevance. It's...a bit of a conundrum, but I get why they wanted to focus on characters who've been in the spotlight recently.

 

[BluePikmin11]

It's relevance, not advertising. Characters who didn't have a recent game weren't as high priority because not as many people would know them, particularly the newer fans. If you're looking for a newcomer, isn't it better to have it be someone a player can recognize, or at least someone a player can ask their friends or maybe (when it comes to retro characters) parents about than it is to leave them going "Huh?"

But for those who are still fans despite those characters not being relevant, it's a dilemma. That goes especially for characters like K. Rool who have a lot going for them except relevance. It's...a bit of a conundrum, but I get why they wanted to focus on characters who've been in the spotlight recently.

Let me restate in a short sentence again, because I realized what I argued had little to do with advertising and was, in the end, unneeded. >.>

In short, Tharja has popularity, uniqueness, the ability to market the decently popular FE series well, and recency to help her chances a bit.
The point I was originally getting to was that she had a bit of a better chance than K. Rool (who has no current, notable relevance to severely hurt his chances almost completely) and Isaac/Andy (Whom are very unlikely to be chosen for playability because they have no probable future, given the decline with their franchises with their recent installments).

By the way it doesn't not mean I have bias or hate against those characters, I'm just pointing out that they have notable flaws that throw off their chances almost entirely. Come to think of it, I may have to edit my chart again after this conversation we had.

 

[BluePikmin11]

From top to bottom:
100%- Mewtwo
60%- Lucas, Wolf, Dixie Kong
50%- (Can go either way)- Inklings, Chorus Men, Ice Climbers, and 3rd Party characters in general.
35%- Young Link
15%- Melia, Fiora, or Xenoblade X character
10% - Bandanna Dee to Hades
5%- Sceptile to Tiki
3%- Monita to K. Rool
1% to 0.01%- Geno to Muddy Mole

Updated again.

 

[RobinOnDrugs]

On the subject of Tharja, I am with those that think she's very unlikely to be DLC. While she is on one of the more popular characters from Awakening, and could have moveset potential, her appearance is problematic. Her trophy was removed so that the ESRB rating can remain at E10 for the game. To have her as DLC would likely require whoever is in charge to alter her design to make it less provocative. It's more revealing than Booty Shorts Samus, and that's saying something.

Also, Tiki and Anna have appeared in more FE games, so they are more likely choices IMO.

 

[Geno Boost]

From top to bottom:
100%- Mewtwo
60%- Lucas, Wolf, Dixie Kong
50%- (Can go either way)- Inklings, Chorus Men, Ice Climbers, and 3rd Party characters in general.
35%- Young Link
15%- Melia, Fiora, or Xenoblade X character
10% - Bandanna Dee to Hades
5%- Sceptile to Tiki
3%- Monita to K. Rool
1% to 0.01%- Geno to Muddy Mole

Updated again.

why monita is likley than Geno nobody wants her also Geno is going to reutern in this year or the next year he is not owned by square enix anymore i remember in brawl he tied with megaman in sakurai brawl poll

 

[True Blue Warrior]

My updated likeliness chart with some new characters and placements:

*Pokeball Icon represents Pokemon newcomer.
Feel free to discuss.

Young Link, Agnes, Bayonetta and Professor Layton have absolutely no chance of happening as DLC. Young Link is the only character that was not just only not planned for Brawl, but outright replaced by a character who is essentially the same as him, filling his niche and role, making him no longer that particularly important in general. He has no chance of being unique due to Sakurai's rule and barely anyone would be interested in buying a 2nd Child Link and he would not be an effective advertisement character for MM due to his lack of appeal. Also, his chance of getting in due to promotion was in the initial roster due to the OoT remake.

As for Agnes, Bayonetta and Professor Layton.... Sakurai has already laid out his criteria for third-party characters and that they would have to be special. None of those characters are significant nor iconic characters to video gaming and certainly not on a level on par with Snake and to a greater extend Pac-Man, Sonic and Mega Man. Considering nothing has changed for DLC in regards to third-party characters as far as we know, and taking into account how costly and time consuming obtaining the right to use obscure third-party characters would be in comparison to an actual Nintendo character regardless of their obscurity, it's pretty obvious that any third-party characters included, especially for DLC, will be those with enough mass appeal and recognizability (aka benefits) to offset the cost. None of those characters fit the bill.

The point I was originally getting to was that she had a bit of a better chance than K. Rool (who has no current, notable relevance to severely hurt his chances almost completely) and Isaac/Andy (Whom are very unlikely to be chosen for playability because they have no probable future, given the decline with their franchises with their recent installments).

That's a bloody stupid statement. It's not a matter of if we are getting a new AW game, but when considering future plans are already confirmed for said franchise.

And no bias? Yeah right, you're putting a no-chancer like Young Link among your most likely characters whilst putting your finger to you ears against multiple factors which guarantee that he won't make it in as DLC.

 

[Deleted member]

On the subject of Tharja, I am with those that think she's very unlikely to be DLC. While she is on one of the more popular characters from Awakening, and could have moveset potential, her appearance is problematic. Her trophy was removed so that the ESRB rating can remain at E10 for the game. To have her as DLC would likely require whoever is in charge to alter her design to make it less provocative. It's more revealing than Booty Shorts Samus, and that's saying something.
Also, Tiki and Anna have appeared in more FE games, so they are more likely choices IMO.

This. If Tharja is too racy for Nintendo of America, how on Earth could they ever put her into this game without a radical design change?

Also, I don't want to knock on Tharja, but has it ever been discussed that one of the reasons why Tharja might be so popular is because of her... appearance? She is a very interesting character in Awakening and her personality is different from all of the other potential recruits, but this is the X factor with Tharja, IMO.

I'm not saying all Tharja fans are shallow, but I a few them of them probably just like her due to the fanservice.

Young Link, Agnes, Bayonetta and Professor Layton have absolutely no chance of happening as DLC. Young Link is the only character that was not just only not planned for Brawl, but outright replaced by a character who is essentially the same as him, filling his niche and role, making him no longer that particularly important in general. He has no chance of being unique due to Sakurai's rule and barely anyone would be interested in buying a 2nd Child Link and he would not be an effective advertisement character for MM due to his lack of appeal. Also, his chance of getting in due to promotion was in the initial roster due to the OoT remake.

As for Agnes, Bayonetta and Professor Layton.... Sakurai has already laid out his criteria for third-party characters and that they would have to be special. None of those characters are significant nor iconic characters to video gaming and certainly not on a level on par with Snake and to a greater extend Pac-Man, Sonic and Mega Man. Considering nothing has changed for DLC in regards to third-party characters as far as we know, and taking into account how costly and time consuming obtaining the right to use obscure third-party characters would be in comparison to an actual Nintendo character regardless of their obscurity, it's pretty obvious that any third-party characters included, especially for DLC, will be those with enough mass appeal and recognizability (aka benefits) to offset the cost. None of those characters fit the bill.

I view this with regards to why Rayman is the only practical choice for third-party DLC. He's the main represenative from his company, is easily recognizable, and is not a niche character. Bayonetta might be able to come in if Bayonetta proves to be an X factor in Wii U sales, but that would be a stretch.

If we get any Young Link stuff, it would be most likely due to DLC trophies being added because of Majora's Mask, and maybe Great Bay being remade for the 3DS as a DLC stage. Heck, Young Link doesn't even have a trophy in this version. I really don't understand why people can't grasp that Toon Link is the spiritual successor to Young Link, and the fact that Toon Link represents a radical outcome in the Legend of Zelda timeline, where the outcome of Ocarina of Time dictates what happened to Hyrule.

The point I was originally getting to was that she had a bit of a better chance than K. Rool (who has no current, notable relevance to severely hurt his chances almost completely) and Isaac/Andy (Whom are very unlikely to be chosen for playability because they have no probable future, given the decline with their franchises with their recent installments).

That's a bloody stupid statement. It's not a matter of if we are getting a new AW game, but when considering future plans are already confirmed for said franchise.

And no bias? Yeah right, you're putting a no-chancer like Young Link among your most likely characters whilst putting your finger to you ears against multiple factors which guarantee that he won't make it in as DLC.

He has a valid point, but sometimes I want to throw something against the wall when I talk to him, especially when it comes to talking points about Isaac (he's fourth worst on his new list). Relevancy is key for many of these characters, yes, we know that... but sometimes, relevancy is only thing some people have when it comes to these character decisions, in lieu of popularity. It's almost as if the character has to be a focal point in the past 2-3 years, and all other possible choices should instead have their fans wait on a Flash game or a Project M mod.

 

[loganhogan]

Here's my perceived list

S- Brawl's cuts minus Snake since he's 3rd party.
A- Roy, Bandana Dee, (Captain) Toad, Another Mii class such as Mii Mage.
B- Bayonetta, Impa, Dixie Kong, Cranky Kong, Chorus guys
C- Rayman, King K. Rool, Snake, Daisy
D- Isaac, Wonder Red, Pauline, Anna, and other classic characters like Excite Biker
E- The other Melee cuts, and characters from less popular ips
F- other 3rd party or 4th party characters

 

[ShinyRegice]

Thanks for the new charts recently posted here! I'm going to update the chart in the OP probably tomorrow. I also have some tweaks to do to my own chart since I changed my mind about some characters; most notably I think that I rated third-parties too optimistically.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Let me restate in a short sentence again, because I realized what I argued had little to do with advertising and was, in the end, unneeded. >.>

In short, Tharja has popularity, uniqueness, the ability to market the decently popular FE series well, and recency to help her chances a bit.
The point I was originally getting to was that she had a bit of a better chance than K. Rool (who has no current, notable relevance to severely hurt his chances almost completely) and Isaac/Andy (Whom are very unlikely to be chosen for playability because they have no probable future, given the decline with their franchises with their recent installments).

By the way it doesn't not mean I have bias or hate against those characters, I'm just pointing out that they have notable flaws that throw off their chances almost entirely. Come to think of it, I may have to edit my chart again after this conversation we had.

Importance over popularity man. Other than the Pokemon name me one playable character in Smash Bros. that didn't play a major role in any of the games they were in.

 

[AEMehr]

I don't think Fire Emblem needs anymore love, lol.
Many fans of the game right now think there are too many as it is, I doubt they would further over saturate the roster with another character from the franchise in these iterations of Smash Bros. That said, the same goes for Super Mario and Pokemon, since those franchise have a fair share of characters on the roster as well. I suppose it's fair to be suspicious of Captain Toad because of the subtle hint of him dreaming of himself joining the battle, but besides him, there's no reason to believe anyone else from those three franchises will be making a playable appearance in Smash for Wii U and 3DS.
As far as I can tell, there is a large outcry for characters from Donkey Kong, Metroid, and the cut veterans from Brawl. Those are the characters to keep an eye on if you ask me, but think what you will.

 

[Kenith]

Well it's just Donkey Kong at this point. I don't care what anyone says, anyone but Ridley will not happen before he does, and he's out of the game at the moment, so there's that.
I find a new Donkey Kong character and some cut veterans to be incredibly likely for DLC, in fact they are the only ones.

 

[Delzethin]

I don't think Fire Emblem needs anymore love, lol.
Many fans of the game right now think there are too many as it is, I doubt they would further over saturate the roster with another character from the franchise in these iterations of Smash Bros.

Yeah, I honestly doubt we'd see a Fire Emblem character. Not only do we already have 3 1/2, there aren't any recent main characters that haven't been covered already and who don't already show up in non-playable form. A niche recurring character like Anna or Tiki could be interesting, but also a huge reach...unless something happened like HD remakes of the Tellius games that made Micaiah relevant again, or something...

That said, the same goes for Super Mario and Pokemon, since those franchise have a fair share of characters on the roster as well. I suppose it's fair to be suspicious of Captain Toad because of the subtle hint of him dreaming of himself joining the battle, but besides him, there's no reason to believe anyone else from those three franchises will be making a playable appearance in Smash for Wii U and 3DS.

Agreed on Mario; with two newcomers already, a third would be pushing it. Captain Toad feels like too new of a character, to where putting him in Smash already would feel like they're jumping the gun.

Pokemon, on the other hand...I could actually see getting a second DLC character. The series only has (including Mewtwo) 6 characters so far, exactly the same number it had in Brawl, while Mario went from 5 to 7 1/2. It has a massive number of mons to pull from, and a significant amount of them have the moveset potential to work in Smash. Not only could they use the long list of moves in the games themselves, the fact that Pokemon games have 18 different elements means there are niches Pokemon characters can use that you'd be hard pressed to fill with characters from most other series.

One of the main reasons Ivysaur and Sceptile get tossed around so much? As of right now, there's no character with plant-based powers on the roster.

As far as I can tell, there is a large outcry for characters from Donkey Kong, Metroid, and the cut veterans from Brawl. Those are the characters to keep an eye on if you ask me, but think what you will.

I also think there's a really good chance for a DK newcomer. The series is on the rise again, but Returns' only playable characters were already in Smash, and Tropical Freeze was juuust a little too late to have an impact on roster decisions a couple years ago.

I'm not so sure the characters cut from the Brawl roster should have such preferential treatment, though...