Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Noipoi]

He has doubled down saying that a shadow drop is a possibility, and is pretty confident saying things like "Do you know how to read a calendar?"

so in about 24 hours we will all either be grovelling or banishing him to the underworld.

Interestingly, Nate the Hate is doubling down and saying a shadow drop will happen tomorrow.

I'll believe it when I see it.

If I wake up and there’s an announcement and/or shadow drop I’ll retract any **** I’ve talked today about leakers.

 

[Garteam]

So....no.

Damn, what an argument. I sure learned the error of my ways.

Yeah, I realized that and edited it.


Pokémon has always been a known exception and the only case of Sakurai keeping a futureproof slot outright. Comparing Greninja and Incineroar to literally any other series is comparing an Applin with an actual apple.

And Mother 3 is a weird case because Lucas was planned in Melee (back when it was EarthBound 64) and the game was very much in dev hell. And also, his semi-clonish nature made him a much easier character to figure out than something as complex as Noah or Mio since Ness could be (and was) used as a foundation.

Pokemon is a weird case because it has an ever-revolving cast of characters that necessitates future-proofing and continually updating the cast. It's not like Mario or Zelda where there's a core set of primary characters that stays consistent. Sakurai doesn't need to inquire if a new Zelda will release in the interim between Smash games because Link and Zelda are almost certainly in it.

Xenoblade is analogous to Pokemon in this regard. It was well-established that each entry would follow a new cast of characters by this point. It's not out of the question that Monolith would disclose to Sakurai that a third Xenoblade was well into development and that Sakurai would plan around that.

Whether or not he actually does this is questionable, but it's not that out there given the nature of Xenoblade as a series and the timing of the project plan and 3.

 

[Perkilator]

I swear to God, having your username be “NatetheHate” just invites so many jokes along the lines of “I really do hate Nate this time!”

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Xenoblade is analogous to Pokemon in this regard. It was well-established that each entry would follow a new cast of characters by this point. It's not out of the question that Monolith would disclose to Sakurai that a third Xenoblade was well into development and that Sakurai would plan around that.

Whether or not he actually does this is questionable, but it's not that out there given the nature of Xenoblade as a series and the timing of the project plan and 3.

I mean couldn't you have said the same thing about Xenoblade 2 after the original and X and putting Shulk in Smash 4?

But Xenoblade 2 was in the "too late" club with ARMS, so like...

Like I could see Sakurai maybe accounting for it since 3 was revealed in February 2022 before his team was put together and released in July, 3 months after development would've started, but I definitely don't think it would be because Xenoblade is getting the Pokemon treatment now, and even my hypothetical relies on him potentially adding a whole newcomer to the plan after it goes into production but before the team is built while he was making his Youtube channel, which is POSSIBLE, but I dunno.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I mean couldn't you have said the same thing about Xenoblade 2 after the original and X and putting Shulk in Smash 4?

But Xenoblade 2 was in the "too late" club with ARMS, so like...

And even then, Xenoblade X was a thing too and got passed over entirely despite being a viable option.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Pokemon is a weird case because it has an ever-revolving cast of characters that necessitates future-proofing and continually updating the cast. It's not like Mario or Zelda where there's a core set of primary characters that stays consistent. Sakurai doesn't need to inquire if a new Zelda will release in the interim between Smash games because Link and Zelda are almost certainly in it.

Xenoblade is analogous to Pokemon in this regard. It was well-established that each entry would follow a new cast of characters by this point. It's not out of the question that Monolith would disclose to Sakurai that a third Xenoblade was well into development and that Sakurai would plan around that.

Whether or not he actually does this is questionable, but it's not that out there given the nature of Xenoblade as a series and the timing of the project plan and 3.

The difference here is that we always know a new generation of Pokemon comes out every 3 to 4 years. It's easy to plan around a franchise that's consistent.

It's not just the idea of a revolving cast. But let's say it's the sole factor and that every series ever had a chance. If that were the case, Ike wouldn't be sporting his Path of Radiance outfit in Brawl because Radiant Dawn would be known... and that's if he wouldn't have been replaced by Micaiah outright.

 

[BuckleyTim]

the funny part about this is that if they're wrong then it'll be punctuated by an even more comedically nothingburger donkey kong related tweet.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

the funny part about this is that if they're wrong then it'll be punctuated by an even more comedically nothingburger donkey kong related tweet.

There is no new console.
There is no new Switch.
This Kong.
Has made you his *****.

 

[Kirbeh]

I don't know who this guy is but if he's wrong do we start calling him Nate the Bait? Hate the Nate? Why do we care again?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

In the grand scheme of things would it really be that big a surprise that for one week promotion wise the only thing on... was Donkey Kong?

 

[chocolatejr9]

I don't know who this guy is but if he's wrong do we start calling him Nate the Bait? Hate the Nate? Why do we care again?

Don't know the full details, but he's a prominent leaker who unlike many others is actually capable of getting stuff right. Though if he's wrong here... hoo boy...

 

[Swamp Sensei]

In the grand scheme of things would it really be that big a surprise that for one week promotion wise the only thing on... was Donkey Kong?

If it wasn't for the leakers, I'd have argued that this week was exclusively for Donkey Kong. It's typically how Nintendo operates.

But then the leakermen came....

 

[Ivander]

In the grand scheme of things would it really be that big a surprise that for one week promotion wise the only thing on... was Donkey Kong?

We haven't gotten our NSO update for this month. Imagine we get Donkey Kong 64 or Donkey Kong '94 tomorrow.

 

[Noipoi]

If it wasn't for the leakers, I'd have argued that this week was exclusively for Donkey Kong. It's typically how Nintendo operates.

But then the leakermen came....

SOON MAY THE LEAKERMAN COME
TO SPOIL ANNOUNCEMENTS AND MAKE US LOOK DUMB
ONE DAY WHEN THE RUMORS ARE DONE
WE'LL TAKE OUR LEAKS AND GO

 

[dream1ng]

This one proliferated real far about something big so if he's wrong it's really gonna tank Nate's credibility. I mean he'll still be right about stuff, probably, overall he's fairly reliable, but no one's gonna listen to him.

I mean overall Emily Rogers was pretty reliable and had a good batting average but any time she said anything people would go WHERES MOTHER 3

 

[Garteam]

I mean couldn't you have said the same thing about Xenoblade 2 after the original and X and putting Shulk in Smash 4?

No, because there's an extra year of time between Ultimate's project plan and Xenoblade 2's release. That's 33% less time to develop a character and an additional 12 months where the original game can change. It may not sound like a lot, but we've seen its enough to make a difference.

The difference here is that we always know a new generation of Pokemon comes out every 3 to 4 years. It's easy to plan around a franchise that's consistent.

It's not just the idea of a revolving cast. But let's say it's the sole factor and that every series ever had a chance. If that were the case, Ike wouldn't be sporting his Path of Radiance outfit in Brawl because Radiant Dawn would be known... and that's if he wouldn't have been replaced by Micaiah outright.

Pokemon predictably releasing every three years is a genuine distinction between it and Xenoblade. However, this is something that basic communication could solve, especially when 3's announcement trailer was six months away.

Radiant Dawn is also not analogous to Xenoblade 3 because it too released two years after the project plan was finalized. It too was in the position that Xenoblade 2 was in and Xenoblade 3 was not. Path of Radiance was also a month or two old at the time, so the Ike was also white hot.

In fact, Fire Emblem actually had a spot left reserved specifically for it in Brawl and, because the Wii Fire Emblem was right at the beginning of development, Ike got in. So, Sakurai has planned around series with revolving casts that aren't Pokemon and chosen the newest, practicable option before.

 

[BuckleyTim]

We haven't gotten our NSO update for this month. Imagine we get Donkey Kong 64 or Donkey Kong '94 tomorrow.

dk64 would be a nice surprise!

which is why it'll be dk94

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

In fact, Fire Emblem actually had a spot left reserved specifically for it in Brawl and, because the Wii Fire Emblem was right at the beginning of development, Ike got in. So, Sakurai has planned around series with revolving casts that aren't Pokemon and chosen the newest, practicable option before.

Yeah, Ike got in due to the Wii Fire Emblem's development... but took the design from Path of Radiance, a GameCube game.

This is objectively NOT the newest option here. Yeah, he's in Radiant Dawn but he looks NOTHING like that in Radiant Dawn.

 

[Guynamednelson]

which is why it'll be dk94

You say that like it's a bad thing.

 

[BuckleyTim]

You say that like it's a bad thing.

i already played it recently, while i haven't played dk64 since i was like 5. one would be a nice excuse to play it again, the other would elicit a "ok" from me at best

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

No, because there's an extra year of time between Ultimate's project plan and Xenoblade 2's release. That's 33% less time to develop a character and an additional 12 months where the original game can change. It may not sound like a lot, but we've seen its enough to make a difference.

Look, I agree with you that Noah and/or Mio are definitely feasible since Xenoblade 3 came out just three months into a development that's been going on for like nearly 3 years now in this scenario instead of Xenoblade 2 coming out a year nearly to the day before Ultimate released, I just don't agree that Xenoblade is in a Pokemon style situation here lol

Like let's not forget that Sakurai was given the X and Y starters and chose Greninja before they even had NAMES lol

 

[Diddy Kong]

Yeah, Ike got in due to the Wii Fire Emblem's development... but took the design from Path of Radiance, a GameCube game.

This is objectively NOT the newest option here. Yeah, he's in Radiant Dawn but he looks NOTHING like that in Radiant Dawn.

Well it might have helped Ike tremendously to have a sequel in development still.

Shame both Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn sold so bad. That was peak Fire Emblem right there.

 

[Gorgonzales]

This one proliferated real far about something big so if he's wrong it's really gonna tank Nate's credibility. I mean he'll still be right about stuff, probably, overall he's fairly reliable, but no one's gonna listen to him.

wouldn't it be funny if nintendo delayed the reveal by a day specifically to troll leakers

 

[DarthEnderX]

Raven Beak

Oh ****, I'd be okay with that as well.

I'm still hoping the next game has more music from the Donkey Kong Country series, especially Tropical Freeze. Give us Big Top Bop and Busted Bayou.

WINDMILL HILLS!!

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Oh ****, I'd be okay with that as well.

WINDMILL HILLS!!

The fact that Windmill Hills and Grassland Groove aren't at the tops of everyone's lists is a travesty.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

One thing I'd like to add to the whole Xenoblade Chronicles thing is that characters from story heavy games are more difficult to add in advance than a Pokémon since Pokémon characters take a concept, run with it, and finalize it long before the game itself is complete. Characters from story based games change and grow throughout the game and its development, and if a character changes after they've been added to the game, you end up with a character like Roy.

Roy kinda dodged a bullet since his Smash interpretation is more popular it seems, but I can't imagine that working more than once, especially with well liked characters like Noah or Mio.

EDIT: To clarify since I didn't outright state this: The problem with adding a story based character early is that if anything changes the character in Smash won't match up with the character in their home game, potentially to a very strong degree.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I'm still hoping the next game has more music from the Donkey Kong Country series, especially Tropical Freeze. Give us Big Top Bop and Busted Bayou.

Grassland Groove and Homecoming Hijinx pleaaaaase

Oh and Seashore War!