Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[ninjahmos]

When is Pokemon Day again?

February 27, I believe.

 

[RileyXY1]

I honestly think it's Smash, of course i could be wrong.
If it's a brand new game and the game started development in 2022, then it could release sometime in 2026, 4 year of dev time seems higher than usual, but if they want a brand new feeling, then i could see the dev time begin bigger than usual.

It's actually even more than Smash 4, which had a three year dev cycle (it started in 2012, immediately after Kid Icarus: Uprising was released and released in 2014) and comparable to Brawl (started in 2005 and released in 2008, although in Brawl's case it was delayed).

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I just can't see Smash being a late console release. It's always been released early in the console's lifespan, and its massive success is the reason why.

Or middle of the console’s life like with Brawl and Smash 4. 64 was near the end but that’s the first game in the series.

If I had to guess it will probably be 2026-7. Melee is the only game where Smash was a near launch title and it’s likely that Nintendo is focusing on Mario Kart 9 and the new 3D Mario since it’s the 40th anniversary.

 

[Dukefire]

Perfect shielding changed from activating at just the right moment to release at the right moment
Close up on the fatal blow on Last Stock. Addition from Bandai giving Tekken's feel
Stock count for 1v1 to increase tension after each K.O
Inking refill ink with shield +
Extendable functioning limbs with Min Min from ARMS
Swapping 2 in 1 fighter returns in form of Pyra/Mythra. Possible for transformation perhaps?
Final Smashes are more straight to the point. Quick and fast to resume fighting with little downtime.

What could be added and/or changed?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I just can't see Smash being a late console release. It's always been released early in the console's lifespan, and its massive success is the reason why.

Only the sequels have been. Smash 64 was released right in the middle, hardly "early". But it was more experimental.

Melee is also the only one to be released in the same year as the console. The rest were about 2-3 years after the console release. It's not exactly "early on" as is. Only Ultimate and Melee are actually early on for a console too more properly. Brawl somewhat is slightly earlier than halfway, but not outright "early", if you will.

But a good way to put it is "it's not consistent on timing" is more accurate than what you're presenting it as.

 

[Mamp]

People are seriously sleeping on the possibility of Smash releasing this year. If Sakurai’s secret project is Smash, then a December 2025 release would give it a total dev time of around 3.5 years, longer than Ultimate’s. It’s totally feasible.

 

[fogbadge]

People are seriously sleeping on the possibility of Smash releasing this year. If Sakurai’s secret project is Smash, then a December 2025 release would give it a total dev time of around 3.5 years, longer than Ultimate’s. It’s totally feasible.

I'm fairly certain there was time difference between the project plan and him starting work on it

 

[BritishGuy54]

I just think this year, there’s not much room for Smash.

We have Mario Kart already, that will likely have a good DLC cycle for a year. We’ve also likely got 3D Mario, Animal Crossing, and Pokémon Z-A on the way as big hitters.

2026 seems much more feasible, with only Pokémon Gen X and maybe Luigi’s Mansion providing overlap. Maybe even early 2027 can work.

 

[BrawlX10]

People are seriously sleeping on the possibility of Smash releasing this year. If Sakurai’s secret project is Smash, then a December 2025 release would give it a total dev time of around 3.5 years, longer than Ultimate’s. It’s totally feasible.

I think it's because MK9 is also probably releasing this year. Having MK9 and Smash 6 in the same year would be crazy. (But i would probably make 2025 one of the best years to me, so i'm all for it, tbh lol)

 

[Chuderz]

That Donkey Kong movie redesign they're using for Mario Kart 9 is such trash. I hate it so much. I don't care about any justification for it whether it being it pays homage to the arcade design or it being supposedly good business to centralize his representation across all media appearances when using the Rare design is what made Donkey Kong truly mainstream in his own right in the first place.

What works in a CG Illumination movie doesn't necessarily work in other media nor is it work necessary to to try and shoehorn it in. I hope they don't force the Smash team to use it. Maybe Sakurai has better taste than Nintendo and enough sway to stand by the superior Rare design. Hope so. Such an extremely common example of Miyamoto meddling being such a drag on the company these days.

 

[fogbadge]

I just think this year, there’s not much room for Smash.

We have Mario Kart already, that will likely have a good DLC cycle for a year. We’ve also likely got 3D Mario, Animal Crossing, and Pokémon Z-A on the way as big hitters.

2026 seems much more feasible, with only Pokémon Gen X and maybe Luigi’s Mansion providing overlap. Maybe even early 2027 can work.

AC can’t have been in development for long. And it has the dev team’s priority was splatoon 3. Do you really think that they’ll rush it?

 

[Perkilator]

I'm fairly certain there was time difference between the project plan and him starting work on it

July 2021 (when the plan was written) to April 2022 (when the project entered full production), which is about a 9-month time difference. April 2022 to December 2025 would be about 3 years and 8 months, which is still a pretty reasonable timeframe for game development.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

shrug

That's what they said about MK8D. Then all of a sudden, 5 years later, boom.

The circumstances of the Booster Course Pass are entirely unique in a way that can't be justified for Ultimate.

For Ultimate to get anything remotely similar, you need a mobile gacha spin-off.

 

[McSpanker]

The biggest reason I think Sakurai's secret game is smash is because when he revealed it, it looked like a smash reveal letter to me lmao. idk if that's just his style or what but it looked straight from smash

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Nintendo's probably in a solid position to do heavy hitter releases every couple of months for Switch 2:

Late Summer/Early Fall 2025: Mario Kart, 3D Mario
Late Fall/Early Holiday 2025: Splatoon, Mario Party
Spring 2026: Animal Crossing, Kirby
Summer 2026: 2D Zelda/Zelda Spin-off, Ring Fit Adventure sequel
Fall 2026: Luigi's Mansion, DK
Holiday 2026: Smash Bros, Pokémon

Throw in elements Mario Sports titles, Fire Emblem, Xenoblade, and maybe something like a Yoshi sequel and even without something like 3D Zelda, its looking pretty strong on paper.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

The circumstances of the Booster Course Pass are entirely unique in a way that can't be justified for Ultimate.

For Ultimate to get anything remotely similar, you need a mobile gacha spin-off.

Tis not a spin-off(Nintendo declared it a mainline game), but otherwise the same point.

I do wish Smash got a Mobile Game in general, though. Spin-off or not.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Tis not a spin-off(Nintendo declared it a mainline game), but otherwise the same point.

I do wish Smash got a Mobile Game in general, though. Spin-off or not.

It plays too differently for me to declare it mainline, official statements be damned.

 

[RileyXY1]

That Donkey Kong movie redesign they're using for Mario Kart 9 is such trash. I hate it so much. I don't care about any justification for it whether it being it pays homage to the arcade design or it being supposedly good business to centralize his representation across all media appearances when using the Rare design is what made Donkey Kong truly mainstream in his own right in the first place.

What works in a CG Illumination movie doesn't necessarily work in other media nor is it work necessary to to try and shoehorn it in. I hope they don't force the Smash team to use it. Maybe Sakurai has better taste than Nintendo and enough sway to stand by the superior Rare design. Hope so. Such an extremely common example of Miyamoto meddling being such a drag on the company these days.

Sakurai straight up threatened NB and said that he wouldn't add Pac-Man at all if he wasn't allowed to use the classic design. I think that he would keep DK's Rare design.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I just think this year, there’s not much room for Smash.

We have Mario Kart already, that will likely have a good DLC cycle for a year. We’ve also likely got 3D Mario, Animal Crossing, and Pokémon Z-A on the way as big hitters.

2026 seems much more feasible, with only Pokémon Gen X and maybe Luigi’s Mansion providing overlap. Maybe even early 2027 can work.

There is also Splatoon 4 which is probably a 2025-6 release unless the developers are working on Animal Crossing.

Zelda is probably a 2027-8 release if it’s an original game. Rerelease/Remake could be much earlier.

I do wish Smash got a Mobile Game in general, though. Spin-off or not

Same with Zelda which never had one for some reason.

 

[Mamp]

It’s true that MK9 + 3D Mario + Smash in one year is pretty full on, it’s worth keeping in mind that the Switch 2 was likely scheduled for release last year before being delayed, so a more compressed release lineup seems realistic. Having a stacked launch window lineup is what Nintendo needs anyway: the Switch 2 is facing a serious uphill battle competing against the Switch 1, and it needs some big hitters from the get-go to convince people to shell out for a new console.

Regardless, game development schedules are typically planned out well in advance. If Smash began development in April 2022, the intended release window would have been penciled in from the start, and development would have been paced accordingly. Considering that Ultimate’s development took around 3 years 3 months, and Smash 4 and Brawl took a little less than that, I feel like if a Smash game was beginning development in April 2022 it would make sense that holiday 2025 is the release window they initially targeted. For the game to release in 2026, it would have to have been delayed, or they would have begun development planning for development to take more than a year longer than any previous Smash game. These are both possible scenarios, but I think 2025 feels most likely.

 

[fogbadge]

Same with Zelda which never had one for some reason.

It was probably for the best

 

[Gorgonzales]

I'm exhausted every time this conversation loops back around to the Ultimate Deluxe schtick.

Speaking of which, if Oatchi gets in, what will people’s opinions on Moss as an echo fighter be?

Under the current definition of echo fighters, Moss would have to be a semi-clone since her proportions are different from Oatchi's. I'd like both of them to make it in but would much rather prefer they fix Olimar's moveset first before we get any more Pikmin characters.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Sakurai straight up threatened NB and said that he wouldn't add Pac-Man at all if he wasn't allowed to use the classic design. I think that he would keep DK's Rare design.

Doesn't really matter what personal opinions are. It's still our Mario Kart 9 at the end of the day. Actually, the reason is most likely because it wasn't filled with 3rd parties, unlike the Arcade games. So it's easier to not call it a spin-off for them. It's a Nintendo-owned product entirely, so they don't have to deal with any hassle(and to be honest, I think it should've been kept a spin-off too. But it doesn't really matter, since they have their own criteria and they automatically win when it comes to that kind of declaration).. Nonetheless, Mario Kart 10(if it goes with that name, though it won't go with 9) should be interesting. Let's hope it doesn't try to do away with more traditional options to play closer to Tour, though. :/ I mean, it could happen, but it'd suck. It wasn't fun when Mario Party tried too hard to change it up either, but it wasn't nearly as awkward.

Same with Zelda which never had one for some reason.

It is surprising. It has its spin-offs(Tingle games, Tetra's Trackers in Japan, Link's Crossbow Training, and the CD-i games are separate in their own way). With tons of various characters and such, a Gacha would be pretty easy pickings. The question is how it would play beyond "trying to randomly get a character". Zelda goes into more than one genre as is. Mostly action-adventure with a side of RPG elements.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

I'm exhausted every time this conversation loops back around to the Ultimate Deluxe schtick.



Under the current definition of echo fighters, Moss would have to be a semi-clone since her proportions are different from Oatchi's. I'd like both of them to make it in but would much rather prefer they fix Olimar's moveset first before we get any more Pikmin characters.

It was kind of exhausting for me too. I still have some energy, but it is not like I wanted to continue it.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Verde Coeden Scalesworth If I may add about Mario Kart, the games never had their titles have numbers in numerical order until the later games, if I recall, as some of the games had the name (or part of the name) of a system they were on, or names like Double Dash. In fact, some games were on portable systems like the GBA, DS and 3DS, so while mobile devices like cell phones may not be entirely in the same ballpark as Nintendo's portable consoles, I can see why Tour would still count as a mainline game.

So with that, I can see why Mario Kart Tour would be Mario Kart 9.

 

[BrawlX10]

July 2021 (when the plan was written) to April 2022 (when the project entered full production), which is about a 9-month time difference. April 2022 to December 2025 would be about 3 years and 8 months, which is still a pretty reasonable timeframe for game development.

I also remembered that Brawl and MKWii both released in 2008, like 3 months apart of each other, so i guess it's not totally impossible to have both in the same year as it already happened.
I feel like they would already have anounced Smash 6 if it was releasing this year, though....but maybe we're never going to get 1 year pre-release cycles again like Brawl and Smash 4, after all Ultimate was March-December, and we didn't know anything besides the logo until June.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Even beyond development time consideration, I can imagine Nintendo would likely want Smash to have a sustained marketing/hype cycle not unlike that seen in 2018. Granted that was also because the first party output by the company was relatively light and Smash pretty much was highlighted game that year, but given how successful that 9 or so months of gradual build up to Ultimate's release was, there is some logic in doing something similar in 2026 separate from the general Switch 2 promotion that would occur this year. Moreover with Mario Kart's even bigger numbers than Smash, there could be a consideration that hyping the former to casual audiences is significant enough now without SSB alongside it.

 

[Perkilator]

I decided to make a tier list for which veterans I'd like to see return in the next game.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Even beyond development time consideration, I can imagine Nintendo would likely want Smash to have a sustained marketing/hype cycle not unlike that seen in 2018. Granted that was also because the first party output by the company was relatively light and Smash pretty much was highlighted game that year, but given how successful that 9 or so months of gradual build up to Ultimate's release was, there is some logic in doing something similar in 2026 away from the general Switch 2 promotion that would occur this year.

I think it makes sense. I mean, even though it may not have had an era of DLC, and I could be wrong, but didn't Brawl take less than two years or something like that since it was announced at that E3 event? If we included its development time before that E3 happened, which was probably 2-3 years or something, I think it took a while from start to finish to complete Brawl, especially compared to other games.

So assuming what I assumed about Brawl is true, I don't think a 2026 release for Smash 6 is far fetched.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Verde Coeden Scalesworth If I may add about Mario Kart, the games never had their titles have numbers in numerical order until the later games, if I recall, as some of the games had the name (or part of the name) of a system they were on, or names like Double Dash. In fact, some games were on portable systems like the GBA, DS and 3DS, so while mobile devices like cell phones may not be entirely in the same ballpark as Nintendo's portable consoles, I can see why Tour would still count as a mainline game.

So with that, I can see why Mario Kart Tour would be Mario Kart 9.

In Japan, Super Circuit was called “Mario Kart Advance” so Double Dash is the exception alongside Tour if it’s about Mario Kart games not having either a number or the console’s name.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

In Japan, Super Circuit was called “Mario Kart Advance” so Double Dash is the exception alongside Tour if it’s about Mario Kart games not having either a number or the console’s name.

Yeah, well my point is that having anything other than a number in their name does not change their position in the numerical order of the series, and with what Verde said, I think it makes sense why Tour can be Mario Kart 9. Call a Mario Kart game anything and it would still be the seventh, eighth or ninth in the series, if you know what I mean.

I decided to make a tier list for which veterans I'd like to see return in the next game.
View attachment 398580

Why have Pokemon Trainer cut? I mean, he was only cut in Smash 4 because of technical limitations. I understand the others, except Piranha Plant, for I feel bias against that character and wanting him cut is leading to fans saying things like that when it does not necessarily mean it will be cut, not that I am a fan of Piranha Plant, for I am just saying.

 

[Ivander]

So imagine this scenario: Nintendo has decided to make an F2P Amiibo-focused crossover game for Switch 2 similar to other Toy-based series like Skylanders, Lego Dimensions and Disney Infinity. The gameplay is a 1-4 player platform/adventure game with similarities to Super Mario 3D World and Bowser's Fury(basically a bunch of big open-world areas that you explore in, where you can find secrets, unlockables and access to Platforming levels that you do before fighting the big boss of the area), but each character has their own abilities and whatnot that can be used to fight enemies and/or give advantages in certain levels, though every level is beatable and 100% complete-able even without a character with an advantage.
Every Amiibo gives either a character and/or a costume, as well as a level area depending on the Amiibo. If you have a character in a costume Amiibo, you unlock the character, but can only use them in that costume until you use another Amiibo to unlock another costume. But regardless, it works with all Amiibo(for the sake of this scenario, no characters that are exclusive to Amiibo Cards), including all 3rd Party Amiibo.

Spoiler: This is the roster at launch.

• Mario(Wedding Mario, Gold Mario, Silver Mario, Classic Colors)
• Dr. Mario
• Cat Mario
• 8-Bit Mario(Modern colors)
• Peach(Wedding Peach)
• Cat Peach(Plays like Cat Mario for the most part, except slightly slower and can hover for a bit)
• Bowser(Wedding Bowser)
• Hammer Slam Bowser(Dark Hammer Slam Bowser)
• Luigi
• Yoshi(Yarn Yoshi)
• Toad
• Daisy
• Wario(Classic and WarioWare)
• Waluigi
• Rosalina, with Luma
• Bowser Jr.
• Goomba
• Koopa Troopa
• Boo
• Piranha Plant
• Yarn Poochy
  
  
• Donkey Kong
• Turbo Charge Donkey Kong(Dark Turbo Charge Donkey Kong)
• Diddy Kong
• King K Rool
  
  
• Link(Ocarina of Time, Twilight Princess, Skyward Sword, Breath of the Wild, Tears of the Kingdom)
• Toon Link
• Young Link(based on Majora's Mask)
• Toy Link
• Wolf Link & Midna
• 8-Bit Link
• Zelda(Twilight Princess, Skyward Sword, Breath of the Wild, Tears of the Kingdom)
• Toon Zelda
• Sheik
• Ganondorf(Twilight Princess, Tears of the Kingdom)
• Daruk
• Mipha
• Revali
• Urbosa
• Guardian
• Bokoblin
  
  
• Samus(Other M/Smash Bros, Samus Returns and Dread)
• Zero Suit Samus
• Ridley
• Dark Samus
• Infant Metroid
• E.M.M.I.
  
  
• Kirby
• King Dedede
• Meta Knight
• Waddle Dee
  
  
• Fox
• Falco
• Wolf
  
  
• Pikachu(Detective Pikachu)
• Pokemon Trainer
• Ivysaur
• Charizard
• Squirtle
• Jigglypuff
• Mewtwo
• Pichu
• Lucario
• Greninja
• Incineroar
  
  
• Ness
• Lucas
  
  
• Captain Falcon
• Ice Climbers
• Mr. Game & Watch
• R.O.B.(NES and Famicom colors)
• Wii Fit Trainer
• Little Mac
• Duck Hunt
• Min-Min
• Chibi-Robo
• Qbby
  
  
• Marth
• Tiki
• Alm
• Celica
• Roy
• Ike
• Chrom
• Lucina
• Robin
• Corrin(Male and Female)
• Byleth
  
  
• Pit
• Palutena
• Dark Pit
  
  
• Olimar
• Pikmin
  
  
• Villager
• Isabelle(Summer and Winter outfits)
• Tom Nook
• Timmy & Tommy
• K.K. Slider
• Mabel
• Resetti
• Rover
• Kapp'n
• Digby
• Reese
• Cyrus
• Lottie
• Blathers
• Celeste
• Kicks
  
  
• Shulk
• Pyra
• Mythra
• Noah
• Mio
  
  
• Inkling Girl(Splatoon 1 Orange & Green, Splatoon 2 Pink, Splatoon 3 Yellow)
• Inkling Boy(Splatoon 1 Blue and Purple, Splatoon 2 Green)
• Inkling Squid(Green, Purple and Orange)
• Octoling Girl
• Octoling Boy(Splatoon 2 and Splatoon 3 Blue)
• Octoling Octopus
• Callie(Idol and Alterna)
• Marie(Idol and Alterna)
• Pearl(Idol and Side Order)
• Marina(Idol Side Order)
• Shiver
• Frye
• Big Man
• Smallfry
  
  
• Mii Brawler
• Mii Swordfighter
• Mii Gunner
  
  
• Snake
• Simon Belmont
• Richter Belmont
• Sonic the Hedgehog
• Bayonetta(1 and 2)
• Joker
• Pac-Man
• Kazuya
• Cloud Strife(FF7 and Advent Children)
• Sephiroth
• Hero(DQ11)
• Sora
• Terry Bogard
• Banjo & Kazooie
• Steve/Alex
• Solaire of Astora
• Loot Goblin(Diablo 3)
  
  
• Mega Man(Gold)
• Ryu
• Ken
• Monster Hunter Stories' Rider(Boy and Girl), with One-eyed Rathalos
• Palico(Malzeno Armor)
• Palamute(Malzeno Armor)
• Navirou
• Cheval with Rathian
• Ayuria with Barioth
• Dan with Quropeco
• Ena
• Tsukino
• Razewing Rathalos
• Magnamalo
• Malzeno
  
  
• Shovel Knight(Gold)
• Plague Knight
• Specter Knight
• King Knight

What are your thoughts on the roster and what new Amiibo figures would you wish for to happen if such a game did happen?

 

[RodNutTakin]

We have Mario Kart already, that will likely have a good DLC cycle for a year.

I think it would be incredibly stupid at this point for Mario Kart's DLC cycle to only last one year.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

The Switch 1 pattern was Smash news in every general direct starting from March 2018 to September 2021, followed by Mario Kart news in every general Direct from February 2022 to September 2023.

We could very well see an inversion of that with Switch 2.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

The Switch 1 pattern was Smash news in every general direct starting from March 2018 to September 2021, followed by Mario Kart news in every Direct from February 2022 to September 2023.

We could very well see an inversion of that with Switch 2.

That is an interesting thought. I don't know if it will happen, but it wouldn't be a bad thing to see for me, honestly.

 

[Watuna4343]

How come? I could see it if maybe you think Ring Fit is better for nonplayable material or something, but I find it hard to argue earnestly against them and in favor of series like these two when its success pretty much leaves FDC or Astral Chain in the dust.

Unlike a series like Animal Crossing in Brawl, Ring Fit demonstrates a lot of explicit fighter potential too involving RPG spells and combat. So being far and away the most successful new Switch IP and lending itself to a fighting game moveset effortlessly, it really seems like a slam dunk to me.

The thing with Ring Fit is that their direct competition (Wii Fit Trainer) is already in the game and has a moveset that stands out a lot more (yoga poses in a fighting game and all that), so I could see Ring Fit just not being a particularly exciting choice if the Wii Fit Trainer does come back (which is another issue all together).

 

[BrawlX10]

I decided to make a tier list for which veterans I'd like to see return in the next game.
View attachment 398580

Pichu, Young Link, Dr. Mario, Roy, Corrin, Piranha Plant, Incineroar and Sepiroth are my main cut guesses/predictions.
If development time problems arise then i think Wii Fit Trainer, Squirtle, Yvsaur, Lucas, Min Min, Bowser Jr and Palutena could also be in consideration for cut.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Pichu, Young Link, Pichu, Dr. Mario, Roy, Corrin, Piranha Plant, Incineroar and Sepiroth are my main cut guesses/predictions.
If development time problems arise then i think Wii Fit Trainer, Squirtle, Yvsaur, Lucas, Min Min, Bowser Jr and Palutena could also be in consideration for cut.

I don't know if it is okay to point this out, but it seems you listed Pichu twice there. Not sure if it is an error or whatever.

 

[RileyXY1]

Why have Pokemon Trainer cut? I mean, he was only cut in Smash 4 because of technical limitations. I understand the others, except Piranha Plant, for I feel bias against that character and wanting him cut is leading to fans saying things like that when it does not necessarily mean it will be cut, not that I am a fan of Piranha Plant, for I am just saying.

He has a high likelihood of falling victim to the dreaded "time constraints" due to how much work goes into him. He's essentially 3x the work of a standard fighter.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

I understand the others, except Piranha Plant, for I feel bias against that character and wanting him cut is leading to fans saying things like that when it does not necessarily mean it will be cut, not that I am a fan of Piranha Plant, for I am just saying.

I don't mean this in a rude way, but the only characters I see less likely to come back than Plant are like Corrin or Young Link.

Plant was a fun character, but was also stated to be Sakurai's attempt at challenging himself in terms of moveset, maybe since there were already so many iconic characters on the roster. It was pretty telling that aside from echoes like Daisy, Dark Samus, and Chrom, Piranha Plant was the only full fledged character not given a cinematic reveal.

With Sakurai mentioning in advance some cuts next game are likely, I honestly highly doubt the preorder bonus challenge character he made is high on the list next to all the necessary vets, fan favorites, third party icons, etc.

Obviously I can't see the future, and given nobody would've thought Pichu was coming back before Ultimate, you can't really count anything out in the end. Still, this post is just a really long way to say I agree with Plants placement being 'rip bozo'