I refuse to put absolute and total trust in anything where they don't show me the actual data. That said, I doubt Bayonetta winning was a lie, she probably did win among "realizable" characters. You might bring up that uh hey, datamining suggests Bayonetta started development early through the ballot (in 1.0.6 they put in a ZSS clone slot that later became Bayo and a Ike one that became Cloud) which also means they'd have to plan it before that. Which would mean that hey, your vote likely did nothing in Smash 4 and the only thing it probably changed was the order between Cloud and Bayonetta. But believe it or not, that still doesn't invalidate it.I want to ask in terms of the Smash Ballot. do you believe what has been said about the results?
Now why's that? Because "realizable" is the verbal equivalent to a cheat code, it's so incredibly vague it can mean whatever you want it to. For example, "realizable" could really just mean among people who were already going to get in. As in she beat Ryu, Roy, Lucas, Corrin and Cloud. Not a lie, just not what people would've wanted to hear at the time. It's not like they'd actually straight up tell you "Uh actually your votes amounted to NOTHING this game, the big ballot winners are all being saved for next game lol". Is this very misleading? Yeah. An outright lie? Nah, it might feel like one but it technically isn't lol.
Now for Sora and Banjo being number 1 and 2 (among newcomers), yeah I can believe that. Quite frankly it's a million times less weird than Bayo was, and I wouldn't even view her as super weird without the datamining. Sora was HUGE and Banjo had an incredibly dedicated support base. It's a very realistic result and I doubt they'd feel a need to lie about it. Like, really, who's going to riot because Banjo was actually #3 instead of #2? Not many people, it's not like the Bayo thing where it'd be like your vote having zero impact for that game lol.
So like, would I bet my life savings on them winning? Never. There's no hard data so we can't verify it, even if it's a 1% chance that's still a chance to lose everything lol. Do I think they won legitimately? Yes, I think it's significantly more probable than not that they won, I really don't doubt it.