Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Guynamednelson]

wasn't the saturn a commercial failure? or am I mixing up sega consoles?

Success in Japan, failure everywhere else.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Oh, I see Sega has been productive lately, even though I noticed?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

With Sonic in fighting games, I think it might simply be more practical and easier to just developing racing titles given the talent at Sega and the close relationship they have with developers like Sumo Digital. Given that Virtua Fighter is the major fighting game franchise for them (and these days pretty much their only prominent one); the thinking could be that focusing on that is simply a better use of resources than utilizing that team for a hypothetical Sonic fighting game that will be trickier to develop and will have an uphill battle in the Japanese market, even if that might be offset by North American and European sales.

 

[Golden Icarus]

It seems like a bit of an unpopular opinion, but I'm not all that big a fan of Wii Fit Trainer's design, or necessarily the idea of a Ring Fit replacement.

The gimmick of using fitness stretches as moves was fun, but feels kinda worn out and looks a bit weightless in animation to me. I do like healing moves such as Sun Sphere and deep breathing, and like a lot of Smash 4 characters she does have a wide variety of moves with different uses and weird hit boxes that I like. Soccer Ball is one of the most fun projectiles in the game imo

It just kinda feels to me like there's not much more they could do to make her more interesting, and Ring Fit kinda feels like continuing the surprise "betcha didn't think this series would get a rep!" but with people expecting it this time.

Tbf, Ring Fit was certainly popular, so one could easily argue it would be treated more like the average first party than a surprise character like Rob or Ice Climbers, but I digress.

I still haven't been convinced of Ring Fit. Wii Fit Trainer was presumably added because Wii Fit was an incredibly successful series and she offered a unique concept for a fighting style. And while she may not have been added explicitly as a surprise character, you have to imagine the novelty of a character as unassuming as the fitness instructor from Wii Fit being added to Smash made her more compelling for Sakurai. So successful series + unique fighting style + shock factor.

Ring Fit was a very successful game, but there's no surprise factor at all because of the precedent set by WFT. The Trainee could offer a unique playstyle, just as almost any other character hypothetically could, but I don't see what makes her particularly compelling. Two fitness based fighters could surely co-exist. Hell we have room for over a dozen swordfighters and a bunch of karate men, but those are also archetypes that are generally popular. Wii Fit is already one of the less popular characters in Smash and a new playable fitness character would probably be just as shrugged off, except even more so because there would be no initial surprise at the character's inclusion.

Dragaux on the other hand? That's a different story. I could see him being the Kazuya/Min Min, while Ring Fit Trainee becomes the new Heihachi/Spring Man. Again, I don't even mean to suggest that Ring Fit Trainee couldn't have an interesting fighting style, but I do think she lacks in general appeal and I don't think she brings any particular X factor either. I certainly don't see a great reason to cut Wii Fit Trainer for her and if we still wanted a Ring Fit rep, I think I'd bet on the character that is much more aesthetically distinct from Wii Fit.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Or maybe Nintendo just wants Smash to have a dedicated team again. That way they can keep making DLC for the entire console generation and Nintendo doesn't have to worry about the team getting pulled away to do Tekken or something.

THEY HAD ONE, DARTH!

Ultimate had a bunch of the Smash 4 devs along for the ride.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

So....the character that actually represents what the succesful game's about can't get in because they aren't "surprising enough" like a completely different character....but we'll go with the giant dragon instead.

Seems legit.

 

[dream1ng]

But as I said, Animal Crossing and Splatoon were new and ongoing franchises, hence the biggest reason why they got into the roster. Yes they sold well but out of the franchises that were 'new IPs at the time they were added' they were the only ones that had noteworthy sales.

Pikmin had the 2 games as re-releases on the Wii, it's not like it was forgotten. Olimar is generally a pretty bad example since he was decided for Brawl at like 2006-2007 which is still pretty soon after Pikmin 2 released. And after his inclusion came again, the re-releases to the Wii. Xenoblade was pretty much the same. It only got a 2nd game on the Switch but the first game got re-releases on the Wii U along with X where Shulk didn't appear. It's not like any of the series were big at all at the time that they were added and of course that's not touching Fire Emblem, which was Japan-exclusive until Melee and didn't take off until Awakening. Ayumi/FDC not getting a sequel because it didn't sell great doesn't sound all that realistic when again these franchises got multiple games before taking off and also FDC basically getting its entirety of content in the Switch. And as posted in an article here a while ago as well as an interview with the creator, it certainly feels like the series continuing is the intention, despite it being more niche. FDC definitely qualifies as a Pikmin-esque/Xenoblade-esque new IP for Smash 6.

Kid Icarus and ARMS also most certainly aren't on the same level as Kid Icarus was still very hot back when the characters were added (far more than Ring Fit is now for Smash 6) and it's Sakurai's game so of course he'd want to rep that and ARMS was part of a DLC as it was too late to add it into the game (as let's be real, ARMS would've absolutely been base roster and not DLC if it had the chance thanks to timing). Ring Fit Adventure's 15+ millions sales also would've indicated a sequel like a long time now, yet even now, we don't even have any signs of whether it will continue and it is only 1 game acting as a sequel/successor to an already existing series.

All these counterpoints entail extraneous criteria you've deemed more likely than the simpler explanation.
Is it that Pikmin 2 was very recent and Pikmin got a Wii port 3 years after Brawl's roster was selected... or is it just that Pikmin was a successful series with a couple million selling titles by the time Brawl was being built?

It's pretty simple what I'm claiming.
Series don't have to stay ongoing after that Smash releases to get chosen, because we have proof of that.
Series a few years removed but since the last round of inclusion are still within an acceptable window, because we have proof of that.
Sales (audience size) does affect which series we get/don't get, because we have proof of that.

And what you're claiming, being that despite its performance, and despite it having no opportunity yet to have been added to the roster, RFA has missed its window for inclusion. There is no proof of that.

There has been no Nintendo series that moved these numbers that has been omitted from the roster since Smash began, excluding those with concerns of feasibility. I agree being a single-game series isn't ideal for chances, but this game has sold more than entire series on the roster.

Kid Icarus was still very hot back when the characters were added (far more than Ring Fit is now for Smash 6)

Just in FY 2023, Ring Fit sold more units than Uprising sold lifetime. It was still selling over a million YoY until last year when it fell out of the top 10 lifetime on Switch and was no longer getting its sales updated.

Also, just for perspective, Uprising, which isn't even at the Pikmin/Xenoblade level, has sold about five times as much as both the remake and the new FDC together in Japan. And Ring Fit outsold Uprising's lifetime just in FY 2023.

I'm not saying we won't get Ayumi, but... just think about the disparity in those audience sizes when considering who might have better odds.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Honestly both Wii Fit Trainer and Ring Fit Trainee will always have to deal with lukewarm reception due to the nature of their games.

They aren't classically "cool." And a lot of gamers still have reservations against fitness software. "Not a real game" is a pretty common sentiment. So even if their ideas are objectively good and all the arguments in their favor sound, they'll still get notable resistance.

A shame. I like Wii Fit Trainer's addition as a representative of a major franchise we just don't see any more. And I played a lot of Ring Fit Adventure. It helped get me into shape.

These two are cool.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I still haven't been convinced of Ring Fit. Wii Fit Trainer was presumably added because Wii Fit was an incredibly successful series and she offered a unique concept for a fighting style. And while she may not have been added explicitly as a surprise character, you have to imagine the novelty of a character as unassuming as the fitness instructor from Wii Fit being added to Smash made her more compelling for Sakurai. So successful series + unique fighting style + shock factor.

Except she wasn't added as a surprise character. She was surprising for sure because nobody was really speculating that Wii Fit would get a character, but that's not the reason she was added. That's like saying Villager got in on shock factor because nobody thought it was actually going to happen because we'd been outright told Animal Crossing wasn't feasible for a playable character alongside Nintendogs back in Brawl.

Ring Fit was a success and Ring Fit Trainer could definitely have a unique playstyle, as others have noted, so outside of this extraneous "shock factor" element that Sakurai likely wouldn't even include in the plan (since only Duck Hunt was actually called a surprise character in the stuff we've seen), Ring Fit has everything it needs. Keep in mind Wii Fit only had Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus before Smash 4's project plan was finalized, so WFT didn't have much extra here.

 

[Sin the Renegade]

I hope Marth regains his rightful glory as a top tier fighter in Smash 6 : )

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Except she wasn't added as a surprise character. She was surprising for sure because nobody was really speculating that Wii Fit would get a character, but that's not the reason she was added. That's like saying Villager got in on shock factor because nobody thought it was actually going to happen because we'd been outright told Animal Crossing wasn't feasible for a playable character alongside Nintendogs back in Brawl.

At this point I'm convinced people are going to completely disregard this no matter how many times it gets explained.

It gets really annoying, especially when it's further falsely used for or against other characters like Ring & Trainee here.

 

[dream1ng]

I didn't like WFT - I was not impressed by their reveal - and I still don't much care for them. tbh I usually forget they're there.

But when people raise how from a merit/resume perspective they really have every right to be there, and even if I find them boring and forgettable (I mean it's a character literally designed to be generic), I know I can't dispute that point.

I like RFT more than WFT, but I still don't really care all that much about the character. If we somehow don't get them I'm not gonna lose sleep. But it's the same deal. Ring Fit was an unbelievably successful game, and especially now when the first-party bar is so low, despite being not my or our cup of tea (which Nintendo knows, they didn't even put the reveal in a Direct), I can't argue the merit.

 

[BrawlX10]

So how are you guys feeling about the chances of a Astral Chain rep chances?
I remember a lot of people saying he was likely for the next entry back in like 2021, however it seems like people aren't as confident on its chances anymore?

 

[Gengar84]

So how are you guys feeling about the chances of a Astral Chain rep chances?
I remember a lot of people saying he was likely for the next entry back in like 2021, however it seems like people aren't as confident on its chances anymore?

I feel like it’s got a pretty decent shot. I think the biggest challenge is actually translating the legion mechanic to Smash. It’s definitely one of my most wanted first party IP for Smash. I’d love both Officer Howard and Jena Anderson as playable but I’m not too hopeful on that part.

 

[BrawlX10]

I still haven't been convinced of Ring Fit. Wii Fit Trainer was presumably added because Wii Fit was an incredibly successful series and she offered a unique concept for a fighting style. And while she may not have been added explicitly as a surprise character, you have to imagine the novelty of a character as unassuming as the fitness instructor from Wii Fit being added to Smash made her more compelling for Sakurai. So successful series + unique fighting style + shock factor.

Ring Fit was a very successful game, but there's no surprise factor at all because of the precedent set by WFT. The Trainee could offer a unique playstyle, just as almost any other character hypothetically could, but I don't see what makes her particularly compelling. Two fitness based fighters could surely co-exist. Hell we have room for over a dozen swordfighters and a bunch of karate men, but those are also archetypes that are generally popular. Wii Fit is already one of the less popular characters in Smash and a new playable fitness character would probably be just as shrugged off, except even more so because there would be no initial surprise at the character's inclusion.

Dragaux on the other hand? That's a different story. I could see him being the Kazuya/Min Min, while Ring Fit Trainee becomes the new Heihachi/Spring Man. Again, I don't even mean to suggest that Ring Fit Trainee couldn't have an interesting fighting style, but I do think she lacks in general appeal and I don't think she brings any particular X factor either. I certainly don't see a great reason to cut Wii Fit Trainer for her and if we still wanted a Ring Fit rep, I think I'd bet on the character that is much more aesthetically distinct from Wii Fit.

I see Dragaux more of a boss or AT, tbh. My friend wants him because he thinks he'll have some similarities to Fishbunjin moveset from Fraymakers lol, i do personally think Ring Fit is more likely.
I think we can have both Wii Fit and Ring Fit...they're visually pretty distinct honestly, i don't see why it's a problem, tbh.

 

[fogbadge]

So how are you guys feeling about the chances of a Astral Chain rep chances?
I remember a lot of people saying he was likely for the next entry back in like 2021, however it seems like people aren't as confident on its chances anymore?

well I would say they're likely but not too likely. almost a dark horse pick as it were. but I think if it does get a follow up on the switch 2 I'd say the chances will go much higher

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

So how are you guys feeling about the chances of a Astral Chain rep chances?
I remember a lot of people saying he was likely for the next entry back in like 2021, however it seems like people aren't as confident on its chances anymore?

I have a friend who really likes Astral Chain and would love for Officer Howard to be in Smash, so I'd like them based on that and possible mechanics, though I haven't played Astral Chain to really know much about them.

I do think as a now wholly owned Nintendo IP there's definitely a chance for them, but I feel like it might depend on the future of the series? It sold about 1.3 million copies, which isn't a bad amount and considering it's about on par sales-wise with the Bayonetta games that Nintendo specifically helped fund, I could see them make another.

 

[Ivander]

At this point I'm convinced people are going to completely disregard this no matter how many times it gets explained.

And it's not hard to see why no one really believes it. Do people really think Duck Hunt was more surprising than Wii Fit Trainer? Did people really think the Wii Fit Trainer was more likely than the Duck Hunt dog prior to Wii Fit Trainer's reveal? Did anybody even think the Wii Fit Trainer was legitimately possible prior to their reveal? I can guarantee you 100% that if any other director, developer or even any fan were in charge of Smash Bros, Wii Fit would've only gotten a stage.

Just because Duck Hunt was meant to be the surprise and Wii Fit Trainer was not, doesn't mean that Wii Fit Trainer is not a surprise.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

So how are you guys feeling about the chances of a Astral Chain rep chances?
I remember a lot of people saying he was likely for the next entry back in like 2021, however it seems like people aren't as confident on its chances anymore?

Not actually a character I've thought of much post DLC, but honestly Legion and the Officer have a decent shot and a lot of fun moveset potential. Rosalina is the only real instance of a puppet fighter character on the roster, so there's plenty of room in that niche to explore.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

So how are you guys feeling about the chances of a Astral Chain rep chances?
I remember a lot of people saying he was likely for the next entry back in like 2021, however it seems like people aren't as confident on its chances anymore?

I think Bayonetta 3's release and a lot of the people who worked on Platinum Games moving to Clovers has made it less speculated then it was back a few years ago. Astral Chain is very much a darkhorse candidate that can sneak in and make sense.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

My friend wants him because he thinks he'll have some similarities to Fishbunjin moveset from Fraymakers lol

I am now officially sold on Dragaux

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

And it's not hard to see why no one really believes it. Do people really think Duck Hunt was more surprising than Wii Fit Trainer? Did people really think the Wii Fit Trainer was more likely than the Duck Hunt dog prior to Wii Fit Trainer's reveal? Did anybody even think the Wii Fit Trainer was legitimately possible prior to their reveal? I can guarantee you 100% that if any other director, developer or even any fan were in charge of Smash Bros, Wii Fit would've only gotten a stage.

Just because Duck Hunt was meant to be the surprise and Wii Fit Trainer was not, doesn't mean that Wii Fit Trainer is not a surprise.

And once again, absolutely no one is saying Wii Fit Trainer wasn't surprising.
That has NEVER been what is argued.

What is being argued however is that the concept that she was added BECAUSE she'd be surprising/for shock value has no actual evidence to back it up.
So when it's being used against Ring Fit Adventure representation just because there isn't "shock value" in it is a problem.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

But they're not like those other companies. This is SEGA, a legendary video game company with many accomplishments to back it up. They're one of the few companies that, if done right, could actually match Nintendo's Smash Bros.

Sega could maybe create a neat little game, but I fail to imagine them actually matching Smash. I find it hard to see anyone matching Smash at this point, in terms of hype, sales and roster. Maybe a company could do it one day, but Sega's chances aren't any better than other companies.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

And once again, absolutely no one is saying Wii Fit Trainer wasn't surprising.
That has NEVER been what is argued.

What is being argued however is that the concept that she was added BECAUSE she'd be surprising/for shock value has no actual evidence to back it up.
So when it's being used against Ring Fit Adventure representation just because there isn't "shock value" in it is a problem.

The idea of shock value being "integral" to a newcomer being added is ****ing hilarious when, before Ultimate got properly teased, we had all unanimously agreed Inkling was a no-brainer pick that nobody would be shocked by.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

The idea of shock value being "integral" to a newcomer being added is ****ing hilarious when, before Ultimate got properly teased, we had all unanimously agreed Inkling was a no-brainer pick that nobody would be shocked by.

History repeats as now Octoling is seen as the next near-unanimously agreed addition.

.....there is just no agreement on whether that's as a unique fighter, a semi-clone, an Echo, or a costume.

 

[Ivander]

So when it's being used against Ring Fit Adventure representation just because there isn't "shock value" in it is a problem.

True, though I don't know why people are using "shock value" as a reason against something's inclusion when Smash has added plenty of characters pretty highly expected like Wario, Meta Knight, King Dedede, Little Mac, Palutena, Inkling, Isabelle and arguably Pyra & Mythra.
Plus not being surprising doesn't equate to not being happy with a character. People were still happy to see those characters(and yes, even Corrin and Byleth had people who wanted them.) and while some people complain about characters like Octoling, Meowscarada and Alear, there are still other fans who would love to see those characters get in Smash.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

History repeats as now Octoling is seen as the next near-unanimously agreed addition.

.....there is just no agreement on whether that's as a unique fighter, a semi-clone, an Echo, or a costume.

What makes it difficult is that all three options are perfectly valid interpretations that would feel true to the source material.

But given how Sakurai makes his Smash games, I would say Octoling being an Inkling costume will likely only happen under the same conditions as Alph; was planned as their own fighter but couldn't make the moveset in time so into Inkling's alts they go.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

The idea of shock value being "integral" to a newcomer being added is ****ing hilarious when, before Ultimate got properly teased, we had all unanimously agreed Inkling was a no-brainer pick that nobody would be shocked by.

It's kinda funny thinking of pre-Ultimate because Inkling was literally the only newcomer I've ever seen that was like... the lock to end all locks. Granted, I wasn't in the speculation scene in like Brawl where there were probably a ton of characters considered that way, but yeah.

Like no character is ever a lock, except for Inkling in Ultimate and at least one Splatoon character this game since Splatoon is a pillar of the brand now.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

What makes it difficult is that all three options are perfectly valid interpretations that would feel true to the source material.

But given how Sakurai makes his Smash games, I would say Octoling being an Inkling costume will likely only happen under the same conditions as Alph; was planned as their own fighter but couldn't make the moveset in time so into Inkling's alts they go.

Wasn't it more a case of "planned as an alt" like the other 3 clones, but was considered to be separated? So the opposite direction?

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

What makes it difficult is that all three options are perfectly valid interpretations that would feel true to the source material.

But given how Sakurai makes his Smash games, I would say Octoling being an Inkling costume will likely only happen under the same conditions as Alph; was planned as their own fighter but couldn't make the moveset in time so into Inkling's alts they go.

Alph wasn't planned to be his own fighter. He was considered as a clone, which isn't quite the same thing.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

True, though I don't know why people are using "shock value" as a reason against something's inclusion when Smash has added plenty of characters pretty highly expected like Wario, Meta Knight, King Dedede, Little Mac, Palutena, Inkling, Isabelle and arguably Pyra & Mythra.

There's a good reason why. It's called gatekeeping.

People were still happy to see those characters(and yes, even Corrin and Byleth had people who wanted them.) and while some people complain about characters like Octoling, Meowscarada and Alear, there are still other fans who would love to see those characters get in Smash.

bottom text (:

Wasn't it more a case of "planned as an alt" like the other 3 clones, but was considered to be separated? So the opposite direction?

Nope, Alph was originally considered as a clone

Alph wasn't planned to be his own fighter. He was considered as a clone, which isn't quite the same thing.

It's certainly closer to the truth than the outright lie of saying he was always a costume, Mr. ERM ACKSUALLY

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Nope, Alph was originally considered as a clone

Oh, so he's the actual opposite of them. That's funny. I could see Octolings go either way, though. Started off as a costume but split, or was considered as a clone but made a costume instead. We have precedence for both.

 

[Ivander]

bottom text (:

And admittingly, I wanted Corrin before their reveal, as I thought their dragon transformation powers would be cool to see in Smash. Their portrayal in Fates I'm mostly indifferent to, but I still think design-wise and concept-wise, they were pretty cool and I enjoy playing them in Smash. And they have easily one of the best Victory animations out of all characters.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

It's certainly closer to the truth than the outright lie of saying he was always a costume, Mr. ERM ACKSUALLY

That's still different than what you said for Octoling by wording.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

And admittingly, I wanted Corrin before their reveal, as I thought their dragon transformation powers would be cool to see in Smash. Their portrayal in Fates I'm mostly indifferent to, but I still think design-wise and concept-wise, they were pretty cool and I enjoy playing them in Smash. And they have easily one of the best Victory animations out of all characters.

Yeah, it's a really cool moveset too. Shame people are still so butthurt by their inclusion that Corrin's always the first considered cut for Fire Emblem.

Good.

That's still different than what you said for Octoling by wording.

grumble grumble

 

[Speed Weed]

With Sonic in fighting games, I think it might simply be more practical and easier to just developing racing titles given the talent at Sega and the close relationship they have with developers like Sumo Digital. Given that Virtua Fighter is the major fighting game franchise for them (and these days pretty much their only prominent one) is Virtua Fighter; the thinking could be that focusing on that is simply a better use of resources than utilizing that team for a hypothetical Sonic fighting game that will be trickier to develop and will have an uphill battle in the Japanese market, even if that might be offset by North American and European sales.

Another thing too is that we're approaching this conversation as as an initiative fully taken by SEGA, like "SEGA did this", "why isn't SEGA doing that", and while they're still ultimately the ones bankrolling it, I do think ultimately the All-Stars games we got relied a lot on Sumo Digital's enthusiasm as SEGA fans to get to where they did. Maybe we very well could have gotten a fighting game if the collaboration had kept going, but with TSR happening instead and Sumo now out of the picture, I don't know that SEGA internal has the same appetite for something like that, or at least I think they like to do their crossovers somewhat differently. You could outsource it, but frankly I can't think of very many devs I'd genuinely trust with such a thing and we've already had issues before with SEGA being a bit too lenient about who they loan their stuff out to.

I think another thing too is I don't think fan demand has really mattered in this equation so far, since while a SEGA crossover fighter is most certainly something a lot of people would like to see, I don't think that demand has really made itself....visible at the moment? In the sense that it usually manifests moreso as a casual "oh yeah that'd be really cool" and less as something people are actively campaigning for. I do genuinely think that SEGA just aren't really seeing the demand all that much because it's not really the same kind of loud fan outcry as say, the calls for them to revive stuff like JSR.

SEGA right now seems to be focusing a bit more on fan-pleasing, so I do think the chances of a big crossover have increased slightly, but I always have a problem envisioning what they could do, which is that SEGA is so many things to so many people and there's a million different directions they could take. All these divides in their history - east vs. west, arcade vs. console, old-school vs. new school. What kind of game would it even be, a tradfighter, a platfighter, an arena fighter? Just on a fundamental level.....what would it look like? So much they could do that it makes it hard for me to predict much of anything. I guess given their current direction, I have a feeling the roster would lean more western-centric, which sucks for me personally 'cuz I like a lot of the weirdo weeb stuff, but ah well. Other than that.....yeah man I don't know

 

[Wonder Smash]

Sega could maybe create a neat little game, but I fail to imagine them actually matching Smash. I find it hard to see anyone matching Smash at this point, in terms of hype, sales and roster. Maybe a company could do it one day, but Sega's chances aren't any better than other companies.

Why is it so hard to imagine SEGA pulling it off? They have major iconic IPs, numerous collaborations, solid action gaming background...

Unless you're just not that familiar with SEGA as you are with Nintendo, I don't see why it would be so hard to imagine them matching Smash.

Though I will say that if SEGA does make their own crossover fighter, I don't think they should make it like Smash Bros. Instead, they're better off making it a 3D party fighter like Power Stone, as shown in the idea that Sumo Digital pitched to them. It's kind of more fitting because it resembles the isometric games they made back in the day.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Success in Japan, failure everywhere else.

The Dreamcast sold even worse than the Saturn, SoA's Marketing managed to make people think the opposite.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Why is it so hard to imagine SEGA pulling it off? They have major iconic IPs, numerous collaborations, solid action gaming background...

Because they did it once with Fighters Megamix 30 years ago and haven't done it since?

Unless you're just not that familiar with SEGA as you are with Nintendo, I don't see why it would be so hard to imagine them matching Smash.

Because Ultimate is the best selling fighting game OF ALL TIME and sold nearly 36 million copies, while the only SEGA games in the Switch's top 100 are Shin Megami Tensei V at 1.10 million and Mario & Sonic at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games at like 1.02 million.

Like a SEGA fighting crossover game would be neat, sure! But it's not gonna compete with Smash overall and they haven't done it in three decades, so...

 

[Captain Shwampy]

You would honesty need Sakurai like figure for a good Sega crossovers fighter imo. Can't really trust anyone to do a good job repping Sega well, maybe Okunari, but im not sure he do a project like that.

For every genesis nostalgia slop a western studio would shove in, There goes a large part of Sega in-house studios work being forgotten for lazy reasons (Love and Berry, Mushiking, Sakura Wars, Phantasy Star, etc) and personal company relations that adhere to their DNA like Compile, Treasure, Camelot, Ancient etc also being ignored.

Sega's management is also unhinged so who know how much budget and time they would put into a project like this.
Im also not a fan of making it a smash clone or a 2d fighter, that goes against sega's creative staff line of thinking.