Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[AreJay25]

What exactly is a dark horse pick?

Essentially a character not many people might be considering.

 

[ninjahmos]

What exactly is a dark horse pick?

I'm not entirely sure, but these are my guesses:

1. A character from a franchise that's considered niche or obscure

or

2. A character from a popular franchise who isn't as heavily-requested as others

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

What exactly is a dark horse pick?

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[GoldenYuiitusin]

What exactly is a dark horse pick?

A fighter that doesn't have high expectations to make it, but could still be included in spite of said low expectation.

Ex. I brought up Rosalina as someone who could be a darkhorse to keep an eye on before her reveal years ago.
She was not among the expected ones (it was between Toad and/or Bowser Jr.) and yet she ended up getting in Smash For in spite of it.

 

[DynamicSmasher]

.......why would that happen when Breath of the Wild is on the Switch already?

People really out there thinking Nintendo is Sony levels of greedy, huh?

Well, to be fair it's happened once before. The Bowser's Inside Story remake was on 3ds with BiS being a DS game. It only resulted in the second worst selling Mario game ever(only beating out the virtual boy game) and the end of its publisher, alphadream. So, you know, a

What exactly is a dark horse pick?

It's a term from horse racing. A dark horse is one which isn't super well known and doesn't seem like it will win, but which takes the win anyways.

 

[Ivander]

View attachment 399954

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Ackshwelly, that's a dark Horace pic.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Well, to be fair it's happened once before. The Bowser's Inside Story remake was on 3ds with BiS being a DS game. It only resulted in the second worst selling Mario game ever(only beating out the virtual boy game) and the end of its publisher, alphadream. So, you know, a

Not exactly the best example but also not the ONLY example.

I will always bring up the New Play Control games they did for Wii because it's really just porting GameCube titles (who are compatible with all but the later Wii models) and making them work with motion.

That second part I think was enough to justify their existence alongside the original, but it was still more or less some shameless porting.

 

[Guynamednelson]

View attachment 399954

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Ackshwelly, that's a dark Horace pic.

Yes, and he's the host of the forbidden Switch game, 6-6-6 Switch. Only by sacrificing a foal in His name are you allowed to play it.

 

[HyperSomari64]

I'm not entirely sure, but these are my guesses:

1. A character from a franchise that's considered niche or obscure

or

2. A character from a popular franchise who isn't as heavily-requested as others

or

3. A miserable little pile of secrets

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Not exactly the best example but also not the ONLY example.

I will always bring up the New Play Control games they did for Wii because it's really just porting GameCube titles (who are compatible with all but the later Wii models) and making them work with motion.

That second part I think was enough to justify their existence alongside the original, but it was still more or less some shameless porting.

True but also the Gamecube, for as good as it was, was still just above the Wii U in terms of units sold. Wii U is like 13 million, Gamecube is like 21 million, so the Wii still topped the Gamecube 5 times over lol

It's a bit different since the Wii was backwards compatible with Gamecube games, but it's the same sort of idea as the Wii U ports on Switch I figure, just with new controls to make them somewhat worthwhile even if you did already play the original.

 

[BrawlX10]

Sure, Smash boards would recognise it, but a lot of younger kids would never have seen it.

Tbh, i don't think kids not knowing a character means a character shouldn't be added, pretty sure most of the 8 yo kids who bought Ult for last year's Christmas have no idea who Corrin, Bayonetta, Little Mac, Simon or Ridley are for example, yet they're still there anyways.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

True but also the Gamecube, for as good as it was, was still just above the Wii U in terms of units sold. Wii U is like 13 million, Gamecube is like 21 million, so the Wii still topped the Gamecube 5 times over lol

It's a bit different since the Wii was backwards compatible with Gamecube games, but it's the same sort of idea as the Wii U ports on Switch I figure, just with new controls to make them somewhat worthwhile even if you did already play the original.

Yeah, the GameCube's relatively lower sales compared to the Wii could also be another factor.

I personally expect the Switch 2 to do well, but it either won't sell as many units as the OG while still being very good sales-wise or it will sell more but not enough to justify the kind of logic that New Play Control and the Wii U ports operated on.

Either way, porting a Switch 1 game to Switch 2 feels like a waste of resources.

 

[fogbadge]

What exactly is a dark horse pick?

Ganondorf's Horse

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

What exactly is a dark horse pick?

I'd say a character that isn't the most likely, but has a decent chance and also one that a lot of people don't talk about.

So my dark horse pick would be Lara Croft.

 

[Louie G.]

Tbh, i don't think kids not knowing a character means a character shouldn't be added, pretty sure most of the 8 yo kids who bought Ult for last year's Christmas have no idea who Corrin, Bayonetta, Little Mac, Simon or Ridley are for example, yet they're still there anyways.

Yeah, when people speak on behalf of an unfamiliar audience I think they're underestimating the inherent curiosity of young players. When I first played Brawl, I was only familiar with a handful of series. Getting into Smash was the catalyst that made me a greater Nintendo fan, but all I needed to get into it was that initial Mario association. I guess since the roster is twice the size now, it could be a little daunting. But I dunno. If I played Smash Ultimate at 8 years old I would have been in heaven digging into all that history and delving into all those new series.

That being said... Touhou is one of the least accessible series to get this frequent discussion, because of how difficult it is for the average joe to distinguish between "official" releases and how many of the games require translation patches to properly experience. And most of these mainline titles are not available on Nintendo to begin with, which isn't a deal-breaker in and of itself but... pretty sure there's a difference between Cloud / Master Chief and Reimu. Typically these more exceptional characters exist through trusted Nintendo partnerships. They don't really have an established connection with ZUN.

I think that barrier in place for Touhou is something worth discussing, but I don't think it's specifically because Little Jimmy who wanted the Mario game for Christmas is gonna short circuit at the sight of a character he doesn't know. Similar to what Sharklord said before, it would have more to do with Nintendo and ZUN's business practices being somewhat incompatible.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I think that barrier in place for Touhou is something worth discussing

Me when Gensokyo

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Yeah, the GameCube's relatively lower sales compared to the Wii could also be another factor.

I personally expect the Switch 2 to do well, but it either won't sell as many units as the OG while still being very good sales-wise or it will sell more but not enough to justify the kind of logic that New Play Control and the Wii U ports operated on.

Either way, porting a Switch 1 game to Switch 2 feels like a waste of resources.

Yeah I feel like it'll sell fine, it's clearly marketed as a follow up instead of some nonsense name that implies it's a peripheral and hopefully the marketing will be good too.

I feel like it'll probably sell less than the Switch since it'll be less novel of a concept this time, but probably not too much less, since it's still pretty much cornering the handheld market (Steam Deck exists, but from what I recall, Switch 2's announcement made the Steam Deck's sales kinda plummet so I think Nintendo still owns that corner of the market lmao).

 

[Guynamednelson]

it will sell more

I really doubt that'll happen if the Switch 1 apparently still hasn't outsold the original DS.

I'm predicting at best it'll be around the Wii's sales.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Not exactly the best example but also not the ONLY example.

I will always bring up the New Play Control games they did for Wii because it's really just porting GameCube titles (who are compatible with all but the later Wii models) and making them work with motion.

That second part I think was enough to justify their existence alongside the original, but it was still more or less some shameless porting.

"New Play Control" remains a better excuse for last-gen ports than the Switch ever had. I will die on this hill!

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

"New Play Control" remains a better excuse for last-gen ports than the Switch ever had. I will die on this hill!

I would say the ports we got on Switch were still valid due to the Wii U's incredible failure and the Switch's lack of backwards compatibility.

New Play Control was more innovative, yes, but the Switch ports gave Wii U games a chance to shine in a console where they actually had a chance to do so.

No game screams that louder than Mario Kart 8.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

I would say the ports we got on Switch were still valid due to the Wii U's incredible failure and the Switch's lack of backwards compatibility.

New Play Control was more innovative, yes, but the Switch ports gave Wii U games a chance to shine in a console where they actually had a chance to do so.

No game screams that louder than Mario Kart 8.

Mario Kart 8 was also a great seller on the Wii U, for what that was worth.

I'm not backing away on this one. The Wii ports at least complimented the original versions; Switch ports almost entirely served as replacement sales.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Actually giving portable play to many former home console bound Wii U games is always going to be a tough novelty to eclipse, whether that be New Play Control or whatever hypothetical ports we get on Switch 2.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Mario Kart 8 was also a great seller on the Wii U, for what that was worth.

I'm not backing away on this one. The Wii ports at least complimented the original versions; Switch ports almost entirely served as replacement sales.

And that is an opinion that I will also side with you on.

But like, when you get a console that failed so catastrophically that the company's own president cuts his paychecks just to keep everything stable, wouldn't it be a good idea to see the games made for it to be given a second home on something actually successful?

It's a way to make sure people could see the banger stuff that existed one console ago.

That's certainly more than you could say of anyone trying to make rumors of a Switch 1 game getting ported to Switch 2, which would be nothing but pure greed on the same level as how Sony treats The Last of Us.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Well almost all of my picks are unexpected. But the ones who I could actually see getting in would be Dovahkiin, Narmaya, Athena and Okabe.

 

[ninjahmos]

Kind of a shame most of the Touhou games aren't available on consoles (especially Nintendo), which doesn't help whatever chance Reimu has of getting into Smash.

But then again…when has being from a franchise that's not necessarily known for being on Nintendo consoles ever stopped anyone?

 

[CosmicEternity44]

You know what would be a good Dark Horse pick?

Stanley Ipkiss, AKA The Mask.

...What? He does initially come from Dark Horse Comics, does he not?

 

[Gengar84]

Well almost all of my picks are unexpected. But the ones who I could actually see getting in would be Dovahkiin, Narmaya, Athena and Okabe.

I’m actually in the middle of my first Granblue: Relink playthrough. My favorite characters are Percival, Katalina, Rose, and Vasaraga. I haven’t unlocked Narmaya yet. Okabe Rintarou would be awesome too but I’d be equally happy with Kurisu Makise or Suzuha Amane. All three were great characters. I don’t think any of them are particularly likely but they’d all be awesome.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

You know what would be a good Dark Horse pick?

Stanley Ipkiss, AKA The Mask.

View attachment 399960

...What? He does initially come from Dark Horse Comics, does he not?

By that logic, any ARMS character qualifies

 

[Thegameandwatch]

A fighter that doesn't have high expectations to make it, but could still be included in spite of said low expectation.

Ex. I brought up Rosalina as someone who could be a darkhorse to keep an eye on before her reveal years ago.
She was not among the expected ones (it was between Toad and/or Bowser Jr.) and yet she ended up getting in Smash For in spite of it.

Another example is Sephiroth who is probably the most unexpected character in Ultimate outside of Plant and Richter. While he was a popular character, lot of people thought it would have been Tifa if it was another FF7 character or not at all because of how little content Cloud got.

Unrelated but was Hero a popular request before Ultimate?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think they'll just pick a moveset that compliments itself, they don't have to follow only a path and make it all 1:1 to the source material.
I'm unsure about Dragonborn's chances, though.

The issue is less about source material accuracy and more about the sheer magnitude of the source material. Take Robin for example: He can be any class in the game, but he has a personal one in Tactician/Grandmaster, so it's easy to base his moveset on this. Cross is much the same, but players are encouraged to pick the Duelist line, at least at first, in order to learn the game, so basing his moveset off of that class would make the most sense if they added him. Dragonborn doesn't have this to my knowledge. So then, how do you make a moveset off a character who could be a warrior, a spellsword, a full wizard, a rogue, a stealth archer, and several variations in between, but no particular lean to any of these archetypes? Even the promo art, which does depict a more specific aesthetic shows them wielding a couple different weapon sets, and could be paired with most, if not all of the builds in the game.

So yeah, I'm sure they will pick something that compliments itself, but what is that something for a character that exists to be anything and nothing in particular by default?

 

[Louie G.]

Unrelated but was Hero a popular request before Ultimate?

Not here, but probably overseas. If Dragon Quest ever came up on western Smash forums it was usually about Slime, and that was pretty rare in and of itself.

I do remember a couple users and youtube videos on the fringe who advocated for Hero way back though. Those guys must feel validated by what is retrospectively and should have probably always been a really obvious addition.

 

[Perkilator]

Mario Kart 8 was also a great seller on the Wii U, for what that was worth.

I'm not backing away on this one. The Wii ports at least complimented the original versions; Switch ports almost entirely served as replacement sales.

I mean…for what it’s worth, those replacement sales more or less surpassed the Wii U’s entire lifetime sales. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe alone is currently the fifth highest selling video game of all time. So in my eyes (bolstered by the Switch 1 not being backwards compatible with Wii U discs), being on a console with a much higher install base is enough of a reason to port Wii U games to the Switch.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Not here, but probably overseas. If Dragon Quest ever came up on western Smash forums it was usually about Slime, and that was pretty rare in and of itself.

I do remember a couple users and youtube videos on the fringe who advocated for Hero way back though. Those guys must feel validated by what is retrospectively and should have probably always been a really obvious addition.

I think it changed in Ultimate when there were rumours and later on datamines that the 3rd DQ Protagonist would join before Hero was officially revealed.

 

[ninjahmos]

OK, I think we may have already discussed this before…but what do you think the next Smash game needs in order to outsell Ultimate, which I believe has sold over 35 million copies as of now?

…And please, nothing about Ultimate Deluxe or having EiH again.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

OK, I think we may have already discussed this before…but what do you think the next Smash game needs in order to outsell Ultimate, which I believe has sold over 35 million copies as of now?

Good online and a global pandemic.

 

[Pupp135]

OK, I think we may have already discussed this before…but what do you think the next Smash game needs in order to outsell Ultimate, which I believe has sold over 35 million copies as of now?

…And please, nothing about Ultimate Deluxe or having EiH again.

The only way I could see this happen is if the Switch 2 ends up selling even more than the original Switch. SsbFor Wii U’s number of sales is primarily caused by the small number of sales that the Wii U had.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

OK, I think we may have already discussed this before…but what do you think the next Smash game needs in order to outsell Ultimate, which I believe has sold over 35 million copies as of now?

…And please, nothing about Ultimate Deluxe or having EiH again.

Good online and Switch 2 being more successful. The latter is more important since Brawl is the best selling Wii game that wasn’t Mario or a Wii branded game.

 

[Laniv]

Who's is your number one dark horse Pic.I think Travis touchdown has a decent shot of being in the next smash tbh

Spectrier.

 

[Perkilator]

OK, I think we may have already discussed this before…but what do you think the next Smash game needs in order to outsell Ultimate, which I believe has sold over 35 million copies as of now?

…And please, nothing about Ultimate Deluxe or having EiH again.

Aside from also needing good online, I think having more significant single player would help.

 

[CosmicEternity44]

By that logic, any ARMS character qualifies

LOL

But seriously, I did not know that Dark Horse Comics did the ARMS comic there. Really interesting. Thanks for posting that.