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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Shinuto

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OK, I think we may have already discussed this before…but what do you think the next Smash game needs in order to outsell Ultimate, which I believe has sold over 35 million copies as of now?

…And please, nothing about Ultimate Deluxe or having EiH again.
Just not be an overall downgrade
 

Louie G.

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The next Smash won't outsell Ultimate. Which is fine, it doesn't have to. It just needs to perform about as well as Ultimate relative to the console it's on, however much the Switch 2 sells, and it's near guaranteed to be one of the best selling games on the console regardless of what it looks like.

It really does just come down to the console performance. I know Ultimate was obviously a massive accomplishment in its own right, but I feel like if any Smash game was released for the Switch it would have sold 30 million copies. It's an essential multiplayer purchase and it's got your favorite characters in it - that's true of any Smash game from 64 to Ultimate. Switch games sold better than average than games on other consoles because it's Nintendo's best selling console.

Smash just needs to come out, and it'll sell. People will be mad about cuts for a couple weeks and then get used to it and play the game as they usually would. And then stop playing and start arguing about DLC, and then play for a couple days when the character drops... you know the deal. Nothing will change. It's guaranteed millions on millions of copies just by virtue of being a fun multiplayer / party game, roster or additional game modes aside.
 
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Gengar84

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The next Smash won't outsell Ultimate. Which is fine, it doesn't have to. It just needs to perform about as well as Ultimate relative to the console it's on, however much the Switch 2 sells, and it's near guaranteed to be one of the best selling games on the console regardless of what it looks like.

It really does just come down to the console performance. I know Ultimate was obviously a massive accomplishment in its own right, but I feel like if any Smash game was released for the Switch it would have sold 30 million copies. It's an essential multiplayer purchase and it's got your favorite characters in it - that's true of any Smash game from 64 to Ultimate. Switch games sold better than average than games on other consoles because it's Nintendo's best selling console.

Smash just needs to come out, and it'll sell. People will be mad about cuts for a couple weeks and then get used to it and play the game as they usually would. And then stop playing and start arguing about DLC, and then play for a couple days when the character drops... you know the deal. Nothing will change. It's guaranteed millions on millions of copies just by virtue of being a fun multiplayer / party game, roster or additional game modes aside.
I don’t know if Smash sales entirely correlate one to one with Nintendo console sales. For example, the Wii sold just over 100 million units but Brawl sold around 13 million. The Switch sold around 1.5x the Wii at around 150 million units but Ultimate sold well over double Brawl at around 30 million. So I think that shows that there was more to Ultimate’s success than just being on a great selling console. I feel like the huge roster with EiH and most of the stages coming back was a big part of it. If it was just based on console sales, a generic Smash game would have likely sold closer to 20 million since that scales with the Switch’s 1.5x increase from the Wii.
 
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Louie G.

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I don’t know if Smash sales entirely correlate one to one with Nintendo console sales. For example, the Wii sold just over 100 million units but Brawl sold around 13 million. The Switch sold around 1.5x the Wii at around 150 million units but Ultimate sold more than double Brawl at around 30 million. So I think that shows that there was more to Ultimate’s success than just being on a great selling console. I feel like the huge roster with EiH and most of the stages coming back was a big part of it.
Brawl is still among the Top 10 best selling Wii games though, only getting beat out by the "Wii" series titles and Mario Kart / New Super Mario Bros. If I had to suggest a reason the Wii sales don't correlate quite the same way, it might have to do with how much of the Wii's playerbase was there for the games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit in particular. Brawl didn't really showcase the Wii's killer features. On the Switch that isn't really a factor.

I get where you're coming from, but it seems like something that extends to every series. Everyone sold better on the Switch. I'm sure there's a good number of people who bought because of Everyone is Here, but on the flipside... did the general market purchase this game because it had Pichu and Wolf in it? The sheer amount of content is surely eyecatching, but I think we're putting a bit more weight on the specifics of the roster than it's actually carrying. The next game will probably come out with a similarly impressive number of characters, and that should be enough. That's just my opinion though.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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I don’t know if Smash sales entirely correlate one to one with Nintendo console sales. For example, the Wii sold just over 100 million units but Brawl sold around 13 million. The Switch sold around 1.5x the Wii at around 150 million units but Ultimate sold well over double Brawl at around 30 million. So I think that shows that there was more to Ultimate’s success than just being on a great selling console. I feel like the huge roster with EiH and most of the stages coming back was a big part of it. If it was just based on console sales, a generic Smash game would have likely sold closer to 20 million since that scales with the Switch’s 1.5x increase from the Wii.
It also helps that Smash itself has grown tremendously as the Internet became less of a privilege and more of a standard of life, which allowed a lot of people to start talking about stuff.
 

PersonAngelo53

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...is there room for an Impa supporter in these camps? I think she's a fresh take for the Sheikah Ninja concept and as one of the few recurring side characters without being a representative of one of the three Triforce pieces, there's a lot of room to play around with her design depending on what they choose. Although, I'd also be just as happy with Skull Kid, since I have fond memories playing the remake of MM and being scared by Ben Drowned videos about a decade ago.

Watch all this end up wrong and Tingle finally gets in or smt.

Watch us get both Skull Kid and Tingle on the same announcement trailer like this :4pacman:
 

PersonAngelo53

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I think they'll just pick a moveset that compliments itself, they don't have to follow only a path and make it all 1:1 to the source material.
I'm unsure about Dragonborn's chances, though.



I think that's the main reason of why they're overlooked, until we get a chracter without nintendo apareances playable most people are not going to speculate on those type of characters as much.




A obstacle i see with travis is that one of his iconic animations is very suggesive and im not sure if you could censor it.

Am more concerned with some of the music not getting in the game cause of some of the cursing in the lyrics like with this one. It be a shame since some of this are bangers.
 

Gengar84

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It also helps that Smash itself has grown tremendously as the Internet became less of a privilege and more of a standard of life, which allowed a lot of people to start talking about stuff.
True, but I think that growth was in large part thanks to the ever growing roster and the Fighter’s Pass hype. I don’t think it’s so much that people really needed Pichu and Young Link back but the excitement of getting the whole history of the series in one game. There’s no way to really know what was the main factor in its sales but that’s how I see things.
 

Guynamednelson

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True, but I think that growth was in large part thanks to the ever growing roster and the Fighter’s Pass hype. I don’t think it’s so much that people really needed Pichu and Young Link back but the excitement of getting the whole history of the series in one game. There’s no way to really know what was the main factor in its sales but that’s how I see things.
It already outsold Brawl before we even knew who Challenger Pack 2 was. It may have helped, but not that much.

And then there's MK8 Deluxe not needing the BCP to outsell MK Wii.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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It already outsold Brawl before we even knew who Challenger Pack 2 was. It may have helped, but not that much.

And then there's MK8 Deluxe not needing the BCP to outsell MK Wii.
Being fair, when the first Challenger Pack was Joker from Persona 5, I'd say this probably got a lot of people incredibly excited for the future.

"Everyone is Here" was likely a contributor as well but let's face it, Snake was the one carrying the most weight here. The others were nice too but there's a reason they waited until Snake before dropping the big EIH bomb.

And then there were the newcomers, which I'd argue had the largest pull in spite of their low numbers. We may have gotten the least amount of unique new characters in a base roster in the series history but those newcomers were really good. Major fan requests like K. Rool and Ridley, proof that Konami gives a **** with some Castlevania stuff, a massively popular character to casual audiences with Isabelle and even Nintendo's latest rising star, Inkling, who by the time they had been teased already had their franchise become one of Nintendo's heaviest hitters in just a few years.

This was a collection of true all-stars.
 
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Thegameandwatch

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Brawl is still among the Top 10 best selling Wii games though, only getting beat out by the "Wii" series titles and Mario Kart / New Super Mario Bros. If I had to suggest a reason the Wii sales don't correlate quite the same way, it might have to do with how much of the Wii's playerbase was there for the games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit in particular. Brawl didn't really showcase the Wii's killer features. On the Switch that isn't really a factor.
The only other game in the top twenty for example that didn’t focus much on motion controls was Lego Star Wars.
 

Ivander

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OK, I think we may have already discussed this before…but what do you think the next Smash game needs in order to outsell Ultimate, which I believe has sold over 35 million copies as of now?
Super Smash Bros.
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Daco_2573129.png

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A more serious answer, it won't, or at least not for a while depending on Switch 2 sales. But even if we lose out on a bit of characters, one, people who are fans of Smash Bros to begin with will still get it and two, there are still plenty of popular characters not yet in Smash that can appear and certainly win over new people to the series. Dante, Master Chief, Shadow, funny Fortnite man, another Persona character like Yu or Aigis, 2B, Chun-Li, an Elden Ring character like The Tarnished or Malenia, a Genshin Impact character, a League of Legends character and probably more.
 

SharkLord

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Yeah, when people speak on behalf of an unfamiliar audience I think they're underestimating the inherent curiosity of young players. When I first played Brawl, I was only familiar with a handful of series. Getting into Smash was the catalyst that made me a greater Nintendo fan, but all I needed to get into it was that initial Mario association. I guess since the roster is twice the size now, it could be a little daunting. But I dunno. If I played Smash Ultimate at 8 years old I would have been in heaven digging into all that history and delving into all those new series.

That being said... Touhou is one of the least accessible series to get this frequent discussion, because of how difficult it is for the average joe to distinguish between "official" releases and how many of the games require translation patches to properly experience. And most of these mainline titles are not available on Nintendo to begin with, which isn't a deal-breaker in and of itself but... pretty sure there's a difference between Cloud / Master Chief and Reimu. Typically these more exceptional characters exist through trusted Nintendo partnerships. They don't really have an established connection with ZUN.

I think that barrier in place for Touhou is something worth discussing, but I don't think it's specifically because Little Jimmy who wanted the Mario game for Christmas is gonna short circuit at the sight of a character he doesn't know. Similar to what Sharklord said before, it would have more to do with Nintendo and ZUN's business practices being somewhat incompatible.
Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. For what it's worth, ZUN's said he wants Reimu in Smash, but just because ZUN will play ball doesn't guarantee Nintendo will.

This is really just trivia and might not affect Nintendo's opinion much, but I will say Touhou's big enough in Japan that ZUN's gone to his kid's class and seen Flandre (a Touhou character) scribbled on the whiteboards, and was inspired to start putting her in his most recent games - And based on the interview's wording, it wasn't his kid hew drew it. Mind you, Flandre's super popular but until that moment, she hadn't made a major appearance in almost 20 years. So for Japan at least, I think the kids will recognize Touhou pretty easily. The West, not so much, but it's a funny bit of trivia that ties into the discussion.
 
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Undella2

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Somewhat of another point towards Japanese-centered reps is Lucas. Though I believe Sakurai originally thought that Mother 3 would be brought over to the West when adding him to Brawl, his popularity despite being from a Japanese-exclusive game was enough for him to be brought back as Smash 4 DLC.

Not to mention how Fire Emblem characters were added to Melee (including Melee's international releases) despite their games (I believe) being japanese-exclusive at the time.

So I think that even if a mostly Japanese-audience-oriented character was added, other audiences / communities would warm up to them well enough with time.
 

BrawlX10

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Little Jimmy who wanted the Mario game for Christmas is gonna short circuit at the sight of a character he doesn't know.
I think i'll add casuals as well. "Oh no, casuals and little timmies won't know who Reimu in, she shouldn't be included!" has always been something i disagreed with.
People forget there are little timies that buy Fortnite V-Bucks to buy skins of collab characters they've never heard off simply because they're cool or their friends are buying them, do people really think they'll really care if they don't know Reimu? Nah.
Casuals, whatever they're teens or adults aren't going to care either that there's characters they don't know about, in fact, they probably expect to not know most of the roster.
Casuals also like characters because they think they're cool, funny or are "op", like my aunt mained Fat Princess because she though FP was funny and my friend who is a casual mained Raiden because he though he was badass in Playstation All-Stars, they did not know any of the characters back then, btw, not even Kratos and they still had fun with it.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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I'd imagine it's very easy to negotiate for Touhou even compared to other guest franchises.


The motivation for said negotiations however doesn't seem to be there.
I would even go as far as to say there might even be a non-zero chance of Touhou being easier than even some first-party offerings just because ZUN seems down for anything.
 

Undella2

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I would even go as far as to say there might even be a non-zero chance of Touhou being easier than even some first-party offerings just because ZUN seems down for anything.
Would you be referring to pokemon here? I've heard the pokemon execs can be pretty particular about what pokemon might appear and how they're implemented.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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Would you be referring to pokemon here? I've heard the pokemon execs can be pretty particular about what pokemon might appear and how they're implemented.
I chose not to say any names because I was leaning on how laid-back ZUN is rather than throw shade at any particular thing from a Nintendo IP.



....but yes, Pokemon is a good one.
 
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Thegameandwatch

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Would you be referring to pokemon here? I've heard the pokemon execs can be pretty particular about what pokemon might appear and how they're implemented.
There is a reason why Smash is one of the few times where Pokemon crosses over with other Nintendo franchises.

An example is how 3rd party series such as Sonic and Megaman had costumes for Mario Kart 8 and Yoshi's Woolly World while not for Pokemon. By extension Ryu in the latter’s 3DS version.
 
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Diddy Kong

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Super Smash Bros. View attachment 399975 View attachment 399974
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A more serious answer, it won't, or at least not for a while depending on Switch 2 sales. But even if we lose out on a bit of characters, one, people who are fans of Smash Bros to begin with will still get it and two, there are still plenty of popular characters not yet in Smash that can appear and certainly win over new people to the series. Dante, Master Chief, Shadow, funny Fortnite man, another Persona character like Yu or Aigis, 2B, Chun-Li, an Elden Ring character like The Tarnished or Malenia, a Genshin Impact character, a League of Legends character and probably more.
Ironically, Dante and Knuckles make sense. Throw in "New Funky Mode" there too, cause Funky also makes sense.

I also think Monster Hunter and Amaterasu are hugely underrated. These 2 series mixing up with Nintendo's cast just make too much sense.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I also think Monster Hunter and Amaterasu are hugely underrated. These 2 series mixing up with Nintendo's cast just make too much sense.
I would love for her to be added, but I think Okami is a bit too niche to stand a chance against Monster Hunter, Devil May Cry, Phoenix Wright, Resident Evil, or even additional Mega Man or Street Fighter characters. I'd even go as far to say that Arthur has more of a shot than Amaterasu just because of Ghosts n' Goblin's historical significance.

I think the Wii version is considered the definitive version due to motion control integration, and Okamiden was made for the DS, so the series is pretty close with Nintendo, which isn't nothing, but I still can't hold out much hope for her.
 

Ivander

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Ironically, Dante and Knuckles make sense. Throw in "New Funky Mode" there too, cause Funky also makes sense.

I also think Monster Hunter and Amaterasu are hugely underrated. These 2 series mixing up with Nintendo's cast just make too much sense.
Oh absolutely. Nevertheless, it'd be hilarious if they still did both memes if both became playable characters.

Monster Hunter is a matter of When, not If, with how absolutely popular it is nowadays and how incredibly popular it is in Japan in general, much like Dragon Quest. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo and Sakurai did ask regarding Monster Hunter, but maybe the MH devs thought Rathalos and the Armors being Mii Costumes worked well enough.
We don't have any knowledge of how the currant devs are regarding the Hunter crossing over, as there have been a couple times where they did allow the Hunter to crossover, but then you have the supposed rumor that the Hunter in MvCi was done without their knowledge, similar to Hideaki Itsuno not being notified in regards to Dante. So until Monster Hunter actually happens, we probably will never know why the Hunter hasn't happened yet despite being exceedingly popular in Japan.

Amaterasu I could see after Okami 2 gets released.
 

GoldenYuiitusin

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as there have been a couple times where they did allow the Hunter to crossover
Pretty sure the only time a legit original "Monster Hunter" was added to any crossover lineup was Marvel Infinite.

As far as I can tell any other time it's just someone from the other side of the crossover wearing an armor, just like how armor is available for Miis in Smash.
 

Diddy Kong

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Somewhat of another point towards Japanese-centered reps is Lucas. Though I believe Sakurai originally thought that Mother 3 would be brought over to the West when adding him to Brawl, his popularity despite being from a Japanese-exclusive game was enough for him to be brought back as Smash 4 DLC.

Not to mention how Fire Emblem characters were added to Melee (including Melee's international releases) despite their games (I believe) being japanese-exclusive at the time.

So I think that even if a mostly Japanese-audience-oriented character was added, other audiences / communities would warm up to them well enough with time.
I think Mother 3 was supposed to be an international release, but due to some... particular events in the game, they probably would have had a hard time.

Lucas did gain lots of popularity before Brawl however, even with us western fans cause there's a ROM translation floating around somewhere. Same kinda goes for Roy and FE6.

Actually kind of ironic how these two characters share this tibbit , and where brought back during the same period too. Probably cut for these very same reasons too, being Japan exclusive and all and not the most well known protagonist in their respective series for this very reason.
 
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TheFirstPoppyBro

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Pretty sure the only time a legit original "Monster Hunter" was added to any crossover lineup was Marvel Infinite.

As far as I can tell any other time it's just someone from the other side of the crossover wearing an armor, just like how armor is available for Miis in Smash.
The main thing this always makes me think of is Berserker and Vanessa from the Monster Hunter crossover event Dragalia had because their alts get fully decked out in armor sets alongside Rathalos and Dreadking Rathalos becoming dragons you can use on any character.

Generally speaking, I fully expect Rathalos to come back as an Assist Trophy even if bosses aren't present, and I could see Monster Hunter getting a stage, but playable character is a bit more up in the air I think, though not impossible by any means, since Hero doesn't show up a ton in crossovers either as far as I recall.
 
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Undella2

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The main thing this always makes me think of is Berserker and Vanessa from the Monster Hunter crossover event Dragalia had because their alts get fully decked out in armor sets alongside Rathalos and Dreadking Rathalos becoming dragons you can use on any character.

Generally speaking, I fully expect Rathalos to come back as an Assist Trophy even if bosses aren't present, and I could see Monster Hunter getting a stage, but playable character is a bit more up in the air I think, though not impossible by any means, since Hero doesn't show up a ton in crossovers either as far as I recall.
A monster hunter stage with a selection of a few different monster stage minibosses would be really cool tbh

There's some other series, too, that I think could be better serviced by stage and/or boss representation than a playable character (or at least wouldn't need a playable character to be "well represented" IMO). Dark Souls would be an example of this - getting an Anor Londo stage would be sick.
 

SharkLord

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Oh absolutely. Nevertheless, it'd be hilarious if they still did both memes if both became playable characters.

Monster Hunter is a matter of When, not If, with how absolutely popular it is nowadays and how incredibly popular it is in Japan in general, much like Dragon Quest. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo and Sakurai did ask regarding Monster Hunter, but maybe the MH devs thought Rathalos and the Armors being Mii Costumes worked well enough.
We don't have any knowledge of how the currant devs are regarding the Hunter crossing over, as there have been a couple times where they did allow the Hunter to crossover, but then you have the supposed rumor that the Hunter in MvCi was done without their knowledge, similar to Hideaki Itsuno not being notified in regards to Dante. So until Monster Hunter actually happens, we probably will never know why the Hunter hasn't happened yet despite being exceedingly popular in Japan.

Amaterasu I could see after Okami 2 gets released.
I will add that I have yet to see any source for that rumor. The closest to a source is a statement about the MonHun devs turning down a Hunter for MvC3 because they "didn't think it was appropriate," and that's still contradicted by Infinite's Hunter. Plus, Monster Hunter has gone from "strong seller in Japan" to "HOLY @#$%ING HELL WE'RE PRINTING SO MUCH GODDAMN MONEY" since both Infinite and Capcom's releases, and rMonster Hunter Wilds has emphasized the Hunter as an actual character and not just a vessel for the player. That gives both the Capcom higher-ups and the devs more of a reason to feature Hunters as characters in crossovers.
 

DynamicSmasher

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Tbh, i don't think kids not knowing a character means a character shouldn't be added, pretty sure most of the 8 yo kids who bought Ult for last year's Christmas have no idea who Corrin, Bayonetta, Little Mac, Simon or Ridley are for example, yet they're still there anyways.
Well it's not the be all and end all. I'm just saying that a narrow appeal in the west harms her rather than helps. Not something that can't be overcome, but still doubtless something that Nintendo and Sakurai will take into account. Hero and Terry were added despite having a lopsided appeal towards Japan(and Latin America in Terry's case), Lucas was added despite no translation, but we know things like that gave Sakurai some pause at one point, with him thinking of cutting the FE characters from international release in melee and not adding Ayumi due to her lack of appearances.

(Also, when I talk about people younger than smashboards users, I'm thinking more teens than children. As an old-school forum, this place will have a decently higher average age than much of the internet.)
 

Thegameandwatch

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I think Mother 3 was supposed to be an international release, but due to some... particular events in the game, they probably would have had a hard time
I think the DS was the major reason why it didn’t happen since it probably would have been the last notable GBA game in the west if it did happen. Basically wouldn’t be commercially viable.

Also Nintendo had a weird track record of not localising much of their Japanese exclusive games on VC and NSO which is an explanation on why stuff like Mother 3 and FE2-6 aren’t on Switch Online outside of Japan. Mother 1’s localization was already done in the 90s.
 
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Diddy Kong

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I think the DS was the major reason why it didn’t happen since it probably would have been the last notable GBA game in the west if it did happen. Basically wouldn’t be commercially viable.

Also Nintendo had a weird track record of not localising much of their Japanese exclusive games on VC and NSO which is an explanation on why stuff like Mother 3 and FE2-6 aren’t on Switch Online outside of Japan. Mother 1’s localization was already done in the 90s.
They miss out so much... You speak of Mother 1, but what about Fire Emblem 1? They did translate that despite us having Shadow Dragon on the DS. Why not give us FE3 instead so we western players can finally play Book 2 of FE1's story? FE12 was a missed opportunity, and frankly much better than Shadow Dragon.

The biggest missing pieces in Fire Emblem in my opinion are indeed therefore the SNES games and FE6. And of course Mother 3.

Love to see these happen one day.
 

Lionfranky

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I think i'll add casuals as well. "Oh no, casuals and little timmies won't know who Reimu in, she shouldn't be included!" has always been something i disagreed with.
People forget there are little timies that buy Fortnite V-Bucks to buy skins of collab characters they've never heard off simply because they're cool or their friends are buying them, do people really think they'll really care if they don't know Reimu? Nah.
Casuals, whatever they're teens or adults aren't going to care either that there's characters they don't know about, in fact, they probably expect to not know most of the roster.
Casuals also like characters because they think they're cool, funny or are "op", like my aunt mained Fat Princess because she though FP was funny and my friend who is a casual mained Raiden because he though he was badass in Playstation All-Stars, they did not know any of the characters back then, btw, not even Kratos and they still had fun with it.
I think issue is that people will more likely buy characters that are famous. Nintendo will most likely factor each series' brand recognition, fame and sales when they consider fighters. At least, that's where people in speculation circle is coming from.
 
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