Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

But how is borrowing Diddy’s specials, half of which were made up for Snash, and the other half coming from DK64, which she wasn’t in doing her any more justice? At least the animal buddies were something she could actually use in her games.

Seems like you're still very much stuck on the "echo" label, and none of us are even arguing that Dixie should be an echo.

Monkey Flip still works very well for Dixie because it's a monke move and she is monke, she got her own version of the Peanut Popgun in Tropical Freeze which, even if not using Opo's concept, could still be radically different by turning it into a shotgun that shoots multiple gumballs, up special can be her ponytail twirl which would function similarly to DK's up B because I'm pretty confident that's where Spinning King even came from in the first place and while down special is a "monke like banana" kind of move... I'll agree with you that this one doesn't need to stick.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

My hang up with Dixie is that in all my years of speculation I haven’t seen an idea for a Special Move for her that isn’t taken from an idle animation (For her Down Special, she plays guitar!) or a tangential connection to her home game in general. I have no problem with the creativity behind it, but I do call into question the necessity of a unique Dixie set because of it.

It’s like giving Octoling a unique moveset consisting of the rest of the weapons in Splatoon. It’s a cool creative exercise, but nothing about the character necessitates going above and beyond and it’s moreso an attempt to Steve-ify an already existing set/giving your favorite series a DLC-character set (Be it Diddy’s/DK’s or Inkling’s). It’s completely fine if that’s your goal, but then you’re getting into the territory of ”This series needs better representation and a new character would bring 23 new possibilities for referencing the game because who gives a **** about representation if it’s not on a playable character“ rather than “This character is intrinsically unique for X Y and Z reasons“, which is not my personal philosophy when it comes to moveset design or character representation as a whole. Comparing Rambi to Wario’s Bike is fair on the basis on how prop-like Smash sets can get, but…Wario’s Bike is Wario’s. Rambi or Animal Buddies for that matter is shared by all playable characters in the series and might even be more associated with DK and Diddy rather than Dixie.

As far as ARMS characters go I think Min Min was the best choice in terms of what they had to offer moveset wise. Min Min is the only character in ARMS who is able to kick, which was implemented into her moveset in Smash, giving her close range attack options which helped with their moveset diversity and balance.

I don’t think having a moveset consisting exclusively of long range punches would have turned out so great.

Famously, all ARMS characters except for Min Min lost all power in their legs in a tragic accident, meaning that Min Min is the only ARMS fighter physiologically capable of kicking.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

It’s like giving Octoling a unique moveset consisting of the rest of the weapons in Splatoon. It’s a cool creative exercise, but nothing about the character necessitates going above and beyond and it’s moreso an attempt to Steve-ify an already existing set (Be it Diddy’s/DK’s or Inkling’s). It’s completely fine if that’s your goal, but then you’re getting into the territory of ”This series needs better representation and a new character would bring 23 new possibilities for referencing the game because who gives a **** about representation if it’s not on a playable character“ rather than “This character is intrinsically unique for X Y and Z reasons“, which is not my personal philosophy when it comes to moveset design or character representation as a whole. Comparing Rambi to Wario’s Bike is fair on the basis on how prop-like Smash sets can get, but…Wario’s Bike is Wario’s. Rambi or Animal Buddies for that matter is shared by all playable characters in the series and might even be more associated with DK and Diddy rather than Dixie.

Even beyond the idea of "oh, there's so much Splatoon could represent", it's still possible to make Octoling a unique take on Inkling simply because of how different Octarian culture is. Inklings are very much about being fresh by chasing trends and looking as cool as possible while Octolings are very military-driven since they are literal child soldiers, so their way of fighting should be less stylish and more pragmatic.

With that said, it shouldn't fall under the idea that each attack needs a different weapon, just that the Octoling would focus more on the weapons rather than trying to look cool with a breakdancing neutral air.

 

[Louie G.]

Rambi deserves better than being a moveset asset anyway IMO, I think it's kind of criminal they aren't an item or Assist Trophy yet. Like, surely the idea has to have crossed Sakurai's mind that the most obvious DKC Assist Trophy is... the character who is summoned by breaking them out of some kind of container (lol) who you can also ride around for a bit.

The best way to do them justice is to let every character ride them, that feels like a satisfying and true-to-form implementation to me.

 

[Gengar84]

The argument that Dixie shouldn’t use the animal buddies because they weren’t exclusive to her is fair but it would be a lot more convincing to me if Smash hasn’t already done this exact thing g with other characters like Peach, Zelda, and Ness.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Rambi deserves better than being a moveset asset anyway IMO, I think it's kind of criminal they aren't an item or Assist Trophy yet. Like, surely the idea has to have crossed Sakurai's mind that the most obvious DKC Assist Trophy is... the character who is summoned by breaking them out of some kind of container (lol) who you can also ride around for a bit.

The best way to do them justice is to let every character ride them, that feels like a satisfying and true-to-form implementation to me.

I feel like the only reason it hasn't happened yet is because Gogoat basically does the same thing (charging around the stage and attacking people while allowing you to stand on top of it and "ride" it) lol

They'd be on different item sets though, so I'm unsure how true that is.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

To add on to my previous point on Animal Buddies not really letting Dixie shine on her own, there's also the fact you could say, make Donkey Kong all about the Buddies. You could make Diddy Kong all about the Buddies. You could make Kiddy Kong all about the Buddies. You could make Cranky Kong all about the Buddies. Etc.

They don't exactly fit just Dixie specifically. The only reason they're even mentioned as an option because they AREN'T used for DK or Diddy in Smash, but like, their movesets reflect who they are (even if people have complaints about DK not having enough references), so shouldn't Dixie follow suit?

This is why I put heavy emphasis on the surfboard whenever I mention Funky Kong, not only because it's his main tool in the Funky New Mode, but because it's a core part of his identity since his inception that reflects who he is.

 

[Louie G.]

I feel like the only reason it hasn't happened yet is because Gogoat basically does the same thing (charging around the stage and attacking people while allowing you to stand on top of it and "ride" it) lol

They'd be on different item sets though, so I'm unsure how true that is.

This much is true, but objectively speaking it wouldn't be the first AT and Pokeball to share similar function and subjectively speaking I feel like Rambi is a much more important asset than Gogoat, if it really had to come down to one or the other.

My preference for Rambi would be a special implementation where you can control them more though. Giving every character a seated animation might be a tall order, but I think part of the appeal is being able to swing Rambi's horn around and not just perching on top of them. It's sort of a power trip in itself.

 

[ninjahmos]

Are we having the Dixie/Echo debate again?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

The argument that Dixie shouldn’t use the animal buddies because they weren’t exclusive to her is fair but it would be a lot more convincing to me if Smash hasn’t already done this exact thing g with other characters like Peach.

But it makes complete sense for a ruling monarch to have her servants be involved in the moveset in some way. I'd argue the spores may be a bit of a creative liberty and it took until Ultimate before Toad looked like it was actively protecting Peach rather than being forced into it, but the idea of Peach having Toad get involved is not far-fetched at all.

And as for her turnips... fair enough, but given that the hover became her standout ability in things like 3D World and Mario Run, it's safe to say Super Mario Bros. 2/USA is now a deeply influential game for her abilities, so using one of that game's core mechanics (pulling things from the ground) ends up aging really well for her specifically.

You don't really have that kind of argument with Dixie because none of the animal friends serve her. It's not unfeasible to imagine it... but also I wouldn't expect every special to involve them either.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

I’m cool with Dixie Kong’s moveset being a variation of Diddy Kong’s, but these are the minimum changes I would like to see.

-Ponytail spin for a dash attack (DK has his roll and Diddy has his cartwheel, Dixie should have this for consistency)

-Replace the Up Special with a ponytail hover move

-Use her ponytail to carry heavy items like in DKC

-Have her standing, duck, run and jump animations lifted from DKC2 for consistency (DK and Diddy’s are pulled from DKC)

-Have her be slightly slower than Diddy like in DKC (maybe give her a slightly better double jump to make up for it)

-Gumball gun in place of peanut gun

-New ledge attack (Diddy uses his tail for his, maybe have Dixie use her ponytail)

-New Final Smash (Maybe something with the animal buddies)

I would also like it if she used her ponytail for more attacks, mainly her Smash attacks, since in DKC her ponytail is basically shown to be her most powerful method of attack, so she should use it for her most powerful moves.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

For what it’s worth a without wishing to pick sides I can confirm that diddy is missing his Simian Spring, Chimpy Charge and Guitar Graze abilities

Simian Spring has overlap with his current up special which is also from DK64. Chimpy Charge could either be side b or forward smash. Guitar Gazump is either a special move or Final Smash.

Maybe replace Monkey Flip since that’s the only special move without really being a reference.

Banana Peel isn’t as much of a thing either but it’s probably there to either reference bananas in general Mario Kart, one of the winning cutscenes from Power Tennis.

 

[fogbadge]

Simian Spring has overlap with his current up special which is also from DK64. Chimpy Charge could either be side b or forward smash. Guitar Gazump is either a special move or Final Smash.

Maybe replace Monkey Flip since that’s the only special move without really being a reference.

Banana Peel isn’t as much of a thing either but it’s probably there to either reference bananas in general Mario Kart, one of the winning cutscenes from Power Tennis.

The point was he hasn’t used all his canon abilities

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Besides, if we're talking about having someone summoned by Dixie to help her....there's literally Kiddy Kong right there. I get people want to pretend he doesn't exist, but he was the second component to her lead role without Diddy.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

This much is true, but objectively speaking it wouldn't be the first AT and Pokeball to share similar function and subjectively speaking I feel like Rambi is a much more important asset than Gogoat, if it really had to come down to one or the other.

My preference for Rambi would be a special implementation where you can control them more though. Giving every character a seated animation might be a tall order, but I think part of the appeal is being able to swing Rambi's horn around and not just perching on top of them. It's sort of a power trip in itself.

Very true, that's why I was more unsure about it, especially the bit about Rambi being more important than Gogoat, though I think Gogoat may get the benefit of reusable assets in that scenario, especially in Ultimate when DKC finally got some bones thrown its way via music remixes, K. Rool, and the Klaptrap AT, which I feel like otherwise would've been a perfect time to add Rambi lol

Being able to control Rambi would be pretty interesting though, even if it would require new animations for every character.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Besides, if we're talking about having someone summoned by Dixie to help her....there's literally Kiddy Kong right there. I get people want to pretend he doesn't exist, but he was the second component to her lead role without Diddy.

For her down smash, she summons two Kiddy Kongs.

I had to go for the low-hanging fruit here.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Famously, all ARMS characters except for Min Min lost all power in their legs in a tragic accident, meaning that Min Min is the only ARMS fighter physiologically capable of kicking.

Little Mac can kick too if he wanted, but it doesn’t mean he should, but maybe Sakurai would have been ok with all other ARMS characters kicking, who knows.

 

[Nabbitfan730]

If anything, Summer may be the time where Nintendo and other major companies show off the heavy hitters for this year and some previews for next year.

I mean we already know their big hits already.

Mario Kart
Pokemon Legends Z-A

Are no doubt going to be the big holiday titles this year. Metroid Prime 4's release, I bet 10 dollars, will be same date as the Switch 2's release which is why it wasn't mentioned at the Switch 1 direct.

That's honestly all they really need this year. Smash definitely isn't coming and I don't even think even 3D Mario is coming either. Mario Kart has proven time and time again to carry systems and years beyond

3D Mario is most likely 2026 with Smash 6 being 2027. Smash is always 2-3 year. I know we as Smash fan by nature are desperate for the next titles, There is no real reason for either to drop.

ARMS is annoying because I feel like the lame "ARMS doesn't have a main character" quote is disingenuous. I feel like they just jumped the gun putting Spring Man as an assist and then somewhere along the line plans changed or ARMS sold better than expected so they just went with a different character and said "well, it's the creator's favorite character". Spring Man is clearly the mascot - on the box, used prominently in all marketing material, I mean..to the extent that a fighting game can have a main character, Spring Man is that.

There is really nothing in-game that makes him stand-out as a main character than all the others, all the characters have all the same treatment with stages, music, arcade routes etc. He's the most standard, "blank-face" character sure but that doesn't he is the main.

Ribbon Girl is on the box as well and the most marketing material usually features most of cast including Min Min, Ninjara, Mummy, Max Brass.

This isn't even getting to that fact Min-Min is undoubtly the most popular ARMS character in most metrics either.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

For her down smash, she summons two Kiddy Kongs.

I had to go for the low-hanging fruit here.

We're trying NOT to give people PTSD about him :V

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I should try to think of an Octoling idea, actually.

Even beyond the idea of "oh, there's so much Splatoon could represent", it's still possible to make Octoling a unique take on Inkling simply because of how different Octarian culture is. Inklings are very much about being fresh by chasing trends and looking as cool as possible while Octolings are very military-driven since they are literal child soldiers, so their way of fighting should be less stylish and more pragmatic.

I didn’t want to say it out loud but I do think Octoling has the same grounds as Dixie to be a unique character.

For her down smash, she summons two Kiddy Kongs.

I had to go for the low-hanging fruit here.

Low-hanging Fruit would be a great Down Special for Dixie as well

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

I don't really have a strong opinion on how Dixie should be included. A Diddy echo where she has hair twirl up special, a couple grab changes, and maybe a new neutral special would be perfectly fine representation in my eyes.

I also think it'd be cool if they revisited the idea of making Diddy and Dixie a Swap character. Characters like Pyra Mythra and Pokemon Trainer often times can feel pretty obvious when you should swap, so having a more uncertain duo with differing abilities like the two Monkeys would be cool.

If they wanted to make her an outright semi clone or fully unique fighter, that makes sense too. I'm not sure about using all the animal buddies for B moves, but I could see something like summoning Rambi for a side special. Maybe she could jump or get knocked off him and opponents could steal him for themselves? That sounds fun.

 

[Louie G.]

In respect to Peach here, I quite like her moveset even nowadays but there is something to be said about it having been put together 25 years ago, and her role in Melee's roster that informed the way it was created. I think the way Smash characters are designed are a bit different now, and back then I feel like Peach was even portrayed as a little bit of a 'gag' character by proxy. Being an unassuming princess, she just assaults you with random props. Other than Mr. Game & Watch we didn't really have this kind of silly zoner character yet. Think the goofiness you see in a game like "Puzzle Fighter".

You can kind of see this evidenced by Turnip's random factor. You can pull out big turnips, small turnips, bombs, swords... it's kind of an intentionally silly move for a character who at the time was not known for much other than her notoriously passive role as the damsel. So back then I feel like when a character was pulling stuff out of hammerspace, that was more of a unique appeal than something justified by the fact that x or y character also does it. Outside of Peach's float mechanic her silly zoner properties are probably what made her an appealing add in the first place. But that quality doesn't stand out quite as much in a roster of 80 other zany characters with comparable tricks.

That's kind why I'm not always keen on "they can do it too", because it homogenizes the unique qualities of each character. Peach will always have her float going for her and Game & Watch his strange visual identity, but no doubt this other stuff felt more dynamic in Melee than it does now, and by extension I feel like characters who summon props and other characters just don't provide that kind of 'x-factor' anymore since it's been so normalized.

 

[Dukefire]

That's honestly all they really need this year. Smash definitely isn't coming and I don't even think even 3D Mario is coming either. Mario Kart has proven time and time again to carry systems.

Give the Switch 2 a year to cook after release, that might be enough to allow people sink into the new console. Also, it will give Super Smash Bros more time as the attention is set to Metroid Prime 4, Pokemon Legends Z-A and more.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Honestly at this point if I just had a Dixie that had appropriate equivalents for Diddy's specials (bubblegum gun for neutral special and pony hair twirl for up special) and replaced the monkey flip and banana peel with literally anything I'd be happy. To be perfectly frank I'd be keener on her as a Diddy echo if I liked how he played. Semi-clone with down and side special moves I actually enjoy doing would be all I'd need.

 

[fogbadge]

To add on to my previous point on Animal Buddies not really letting Dixie shine on her own, there's also the fact you could say, make Donkey Kong all about the Buddies. You could make Diddy Kong all about the Buddies. You could make Kiddy Kong all about the Buddies. You could make Cranky Kong all about the Buddies. Etc.

They don't exactly fit just Dixie specifically. The only reason they're even mentioned as an option because they AREN'T used for DK or Diddy in Smash, but like, their movesets reflect who they are (even if people have complaints about DK not having enough references), so shouldn't Dixie follow suit?

This is why I put heavy emphasis on the surfboard whenever I mention Funky Kong, not only because it's his main tool in the Funky New Mode, but because it's a core part of his identity since his inception that reflects who he is.

wait a second, that’s the argument of the anti toad crew!

 

[DarthEnderX]

That said, one thing Ahri has over Jinx is that her default LoL outfit is a bit more tame, making it easier to censor her if needed. On the other hand, Jinx’s default outfit might be not as easy to censor—unless they opt for her Arcane outfit instead of her original LoL design.

My expectation is they'd use Jinx's 2XKO design. Which is no more risque than Zero Suit Samus' alts.

With a wealth of colorful Capcom characters I feel that some fans want to write Monster Hunter out of the equation as cleanly as possible to get closer to their "cool" pick like Dante or Phoenix Wright.

Arthur.

Feels like another case where it seems like people think Echoes are the ONLY way a character can be a clone, despite Isabelle being introduced in the same game as the Echo Fighter concept.

Isabelle should be labeled an Echo. All clones should.

A character should either be fully unique, or the should be an Echo.

And here I thought non-gaming characters were a no-go

How do you manage to give him a full moveset based entirely on using only horn strikes?

I'm not judging, I'm genuinely curious.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

3D Mario is most likely 2026 with Smash 6 being 2027.

This doesn't change your point, but I also fully expect Pokemon Gen 10 next year.

I really doubt they'll pass up on Gen 10 happening on the 30th anniversary year as the big announcement at next year's Pokemon Day.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

If you’re counting transformations as separate characters, Melee added four Zelda characters with Ganondorf, Zelda, Sheik, and Young Link. Granted, two of them are clones and another is a shared transformation but still.

Oh you are right.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

In respect to Peach here, I quite like her moveset even nowadays but there is something to be said about it having been put together 25 years ago, and her role in Melee's roster that informed the way it was created. I think the way Smash characters are designed are a bit different now, and back then I feel like Peach was even portrayed as a little bit of a 'gag' character by proxy. Being an unassuming princess, she just assaults you with random props. Other than Mr. Game & Watch we didn't really have this kind of silly zoner character yet. Think the goofiness you see in a game like "Puzzle Fighter".

You can kind of see this evidenced by Turnip's random factor. You can pull out big turnips, small turnips, bombs, swords... it's kind of an intentionally silly move for a character who at the time was not known for much other than her notoriously passive role as the damsel. So back then I feel like when a character was pulling stuff out of hammerspace, that was more of a unique appeal than something justified by the fact that x or y character also does it. Outside of Peach's float mechanic her silly zoner properties are probably what made her an appealing add in the first place. But that quality doesn't stand out quite as much in a roster of 80 other zany characters with comparable tricks.

That's kind why I'm not always keen on "they can do it too", because it homogenizes the unique qualities of each character. Peach will always have her float going for her but no doubt this other stuff felt more dynamic in Melee than it does now, and by extension I feel like characters who summon props and other characters just don't provide that kind of 'x-factor' anymore since it's been so normalized.

Turnips is also more tied to Peach since they share playable debuts, rather than Rambi appearing in the first DKC without Dixie. Peach has also not appeared in a playable appearance outside of spin-offs since and the same applies to Turnips, so Peach and Turnips don’t just happen to converge in the same game, they have the same “playable“ history in the series and an overlapping Venn diagram in breakout roles.

wait a second, that’s the argument of the anti toad crew!

only if your toad movesets suck

But now I do feel like a hypocrite for wanting a unique Toad because Toad ostensibly does have the same “Me when my Down Special can’t be a random power-up” problem as Dixie does.

 

[Ivander]

For her down smash, she summons two Kiddy Kongs.

I had to go for the low-hanging fruit here.

We're trying NOT to give people PTSD about him :V

Nintendo fans and Smash fans when they see two Kiddy Kongs:

 

[Wario Wario Wario]

I think that if I had to implement Toad in Smash, I'd probably have it be "Toad + adjective". Instead of just having Toad throw out random power-ups, make a whole moveset out of say, just the propeller suit; cat suit; flying squirrel suit; boomerang suit; penguin suit; e.t.c. - Toad in a kart is an idea I also really like, but I think I lean a little more towards using a kart as a way to make Metal Mario unique or have Captain Commando-style badass babies without actually, you know, putting the baby in harm's way.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Peach has also not appeared in a playable appearance outside of spin-offs

You mean prior to Melee, right? Because 3D World and Wonder exist.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

You mean prior to Melee, right? Because 3D World and Wonder exist.

And for Turnips, Captain Toad Treasure Tracker exists.

So it's likely that he meant before Melee, yeah.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I mean we already know their big hits already.

Mario Kart
Pokemon Legends Z-A

Are no doubt going to be the big holiday titles this year. Metroid Prime 4's release, I bet 10 dollars, will be same date as the Switch 2's release which is why it wasn't mentioned at the Switch 1 direct.

That's honestly all they really need this year. Smash definitely isn't coming and I don't even think even 3D Mario is coming either. Mario Kart has proven time and time again to carry systems and years beyond

3D Mario is most likely 2026 with Smash 6 being 2027. Smash is always 2-3 year. I know we as Smash fan by nature are desperate for the next titles, There is no real reason for either to drop.

I think 2025 for 3D Mario makes more sense because I don’t Mario Kart 9 should be the only Switch 2 major exclusive game in the console’s first year.

Z-A will probably be exclusive to the Switch 1 unless it gets an enhanced version when used on the Switch 2. GameFreak is always a year or two behind in terms of stuff for the next console. BW2 released a year after the 3DS, Lets Go released in the second year of the Switch 1 and etc.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Sakurai decides to solve to two moveset questions by making Toad and Waluigi a wacky fighter duo in Smash, with each one implementing things from the various Mario spin-offs and both using the other (sometimes against their will) for attacks.

Waluigi hitting Toad into foes with a Tennis Racket may or may not be on the table.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

The argument that Dixie shouldn’t use the animal buddies because they weren’t exclusive to her is fair but it would be a lot more convincing to me if Smash hasn’t already done this exact thing g with other characters like Peach, Zelda, and Ness.

I'm guessing Ness' using Paula's moves in Smash is because most of his moves are more support type than offensive, which would be harder to translate in Smash (especially in the context of Smash 64 where moveset were more "simple" cpompare to what we have today).

For Zelda, I'm guessing this is because she mostly had "passive" roles up until that point in the Zelda franchise, so it was harder to come up with a moveset and it makes sense for her to use magic either way.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I'm guessing Ness' using Paula's moves in Smash is because most of his moves are more support type than offensive, which would be harder to translate in Smash (especially in the context of Smash 64 where moveset were more "simple" cpompare to what we have today).

Same with Lucas by extension but that’s also because Lucas was presumably chosen in Brawl before Mother 3 released or when it did.

 

[BrawlX10]

3D Mario is most likely 2026 with Smash 6 being 2027. Smash is always 2-3 year. I know we as Smash fan by nature are desperate for the next titles, There is no real reason for either to drop.

Smash 6 is most likely not coming this year.
But 2026 is still a big posibility, just probably not early '26.
I don't see why 3D Mario, Pokemon Gen 10 and Smash 6 can't all come out in 2026, honestly. Switch 1 had MK8D, ARMS, BOTW, Odyssey, Splatoon 2 and Xenoblade 2 in 2017, that was stacked as **** looking back.

 

[Arcanir]

Same with Lucas by extension but that’s also because Lucas was presumably chosen in Brawl before Mother 3 released or when it did.

Mother 3 came out afterwards, yes (Brawl's Project Plan was about July 2005, Mother 3 was April 2006).

That said, Lucas is also a semi-clone and he was initially intended to replace Ness, so he likely followed a similar template to Ness as a result.

 

[Opossum]

only if your toad movesets suck

But now I do feel like a hypocrite for wanting a unique Toad because Toad ostensibly does have the same “Me when my Down Special can’t be a random power-up” problem as Dixie does.

I actually don't think this is as much of a problem with Toad, honestly, and that's because many, many Mario power ups (especially the ones actually associated with Toad) are mushrooms. So there's an inherent link back to Toad there. Add in the connection of Toad literally running the Toad Houses in Super Mario Bros. 3, giving him a specific affinity for power ups, and I think it's completely reasonable for Toad to have, for example, the Propeller Mushroom as an up special, or a Golden Mushroom side special, to give two common examples.