Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

[FourStar]

That is literally what I JUST said. I referred to Brawl for that exact reason.

5-8 characters wouldn't make any sense from a marketing standpoint. At all. It will be at least 10

LOL sorry i changed my mind

 

[Thirdkoopa]

11-13. Agree or disagree?

 

[FourStar]

11-13. Agree or disagree?

fair enough

 

[Gingerbread Man]

What about DLC? if there is any...
Would 11-13 include that?

 

[Deleted member]

I would like to hear the breakdown.

Group A: Very likely:
King K. Rool, Ridley, Mewtwo, Palutena, Takamaru, Little Mac, Shulk

Group B: Good chance:
Dixie Kong, Roy, Mach Rider, Isaac, Mega Man*

Group C: Fair shot:
Toad, Bowser Jr., Ghirahim, Krystal, Samurai Goroh, Chrom, Saki Amamiya, Professor Layton*, Lloyd Irving*

Group D: Unlikely, but still possible:
Dr. Mario, Paper Mario, Waluigi, Mona, Toon Zelda/Sheik, Pichu, Black Shadow, Medusa, Dillon, Pac-Man, Cress Albane, Geno

*: Position is assuming that third-parties return.

I'm thinking we'll get ten to twelve newcomers in the next game (not counting Mewtwo and Roy).

 

[FourStar]

Group A: Very likely:
King K. Rool, Ridley, Mewtwo, Palutena, Takamaru, Little Mac, Shulk

Group B: Good chance:
Dixie Kong, Roy, Mach Rider, Isaac, Mega Man*

Group C: Fair shot:
Toad, Bowser Jr., Ghirahim, Krystal, Samurai Goroh, Chrom, Saki Amamiya, Professor Layton*, Lloyd Irving*

Group D: Unlikely, but still possible:
Dr. Mario, Paper Mario, Waluigi, Mona, Toon Zelda/Sheik, Pichu, Black Shadow, Medusa, Dillon, Pac-Man, Cress Albane, Geno

*: Position is assuming that third-parties return.

I'm thinking we'll get ten to twelve newcomers in the next game (not counting Mewtwo and Roy).

i'm kinda wondering how is toon zelda/sheik unlikely? and honestly i feel Dr. mario having a betterchance than Prof. Layton

 

[Gingerbread Man]

I don't understand why paper mario is in group D. At least put him with the other mario reps.

 

[3Bismyname]

i dont understand why Lloyd or Layton are more likely than Pac-Man

 

[FourStar]

if anything, layton is one of the people on the least likely list

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I don't understand why *insert character here* is in *Insert low group here*.

It's his own personal list guys. Cut him some slack.

 

[Gingerbread Man]

I didn't mean for it to come off as aggressive. :/
Its fine, we're just discussing rosters.

 

[FourStar]

mah bad.....

 

[Deleted member]

I don't understand why paper mario is in group D. At least put him with the other mario reps.

Waluigi and Dr. Mario are also in the D group.

Paper Mario is a possibility due to being the face of the Paper Mario spin-off and having some importance in the franchise. There's also the possibility that we get a 2nd Mario this time around and if not Dr. Mario, Sakurai would pick Paper Mario. The main issue with Paper Mario, however, is superior competition from Toad and Bowser Jr along with the possibility of Dr. Mario getting priority.

i dont understand why Lloyd or Layton are more likely than Pac-Man

Because they have the one thing that Pac-Man doesn't; interest from the company (with Tales producer wanting a Tales character in Smash and Hino really wanting Layton in Smash). While there's the off-chance that Pac-Man gets in as the Namco rep due to super iconic status, nothing indicates that Namco is interested in Pac-Man so far and I have a feeling that they're more likely going to want a Tales rep due to the similarities that a Tales game has in mechanics to Smash.

 

[FourStar]

Waluigi and Dr. Mario are also in the D group.

Paper Mario is a possibility due to being the face of the Paper Mario spin-off and having some importance in the franchise. There's also the possibility that we get a 2nd Mario this time around and if not Dr. Mario, Sakurai would pick Paper Mario. The main issue with Paper Mario, however, is superior competition from Toad and Bowser Jr along with the possibility of Dr. Mario getting priority.Because they have the one thing that Pac-Man doesn't; interest from the company (with Tales producer wanting a Tales character in Smash and Hino really wanting Layton in Smash). While there's the off-chance that Pac-Man gets in as the Namco rep due to super iconic status, nothing indicates that Namco is interested in Pac-Man so far and I have a feeling that they're more likely going to want a Tales rep due to the similarities that a Tales game has in mechanics to Smash.

fair enough

 

[3Bismyname]

.Because they have the one thing that Pac-Man doesn't; interest from the company (with Tales producer wanting a Tales character in Smash and Hino really wanting Layton in Smash). While there's the off-chance that Pac-Man gets in as the Namco rep due to super iconic status, nothing indicates that Namco is interested in Pac-Man so far and I have a feeling that they're more likely going to want a Tales rep due to the similarities that a Tales game has in mechanics to Smash.

but many people have expressed interest in Smash Bros. from Suda51 with Travis Touchdown to a some Capcom rep, idr who right now, with M.Bison and even Meatboy i remember hearing. anyone expressing interest outside of Sakurai, or another Nintendo higher up, really means very little in the end.

 

[Noler_Mass]

Only real issue I have with that thing is that Chrom is dreadfully low even though he is extremely likely. Like as much as people don't want to admit it he is the most likely fire emblem character. If I were to make one of those it would be...

QUITE POSSIBLE: king k, Ridley, palutena, mewtwo, takamaru, little Mac, shulk, Isaac, Chrom

WHO THE HELL KNOWS: everyone else

 

[Deleted member]

Because they have the one thing that Pac-Man doesn't; interest from the company (with Tales producer wanting a Tales character in Smash and Hino really wanting Layton in Smash). While there's the off-chance that Pac-Man gets in as the Namco rep due to super iconic status, nothing indicates that Namco is interested in Pac-Man so far and I have a feeling that they're more likely going to want a Tales rep due to the similarities that a Tales game has in mechanics to Smash.

Last I checked "Layton in Smash would be a wonderful opportunity" =/= "I really want Layton in Smash".

 

[Deleted member]

but many people have expressed interest in Smash Bros. from Suda51 with Travis Touchdown to a some Capcom rep, idr who right now, with M.Bison. anyone expressing interest outside of Sakurai, or another Nintendo higher up, really means very little in the end.

With Suda51, he was just "yeah, that'd be cool". There's no indication that he's going to push Travis Touchdown based on this statement. As for a Capcom rep, from what we know so far, Capcom's preference is Mega Man and Yoshinori Ono stated that if he wanted any rep from Capcom, it'd be Mega Man (although stated that M. Bison was his preferred Street Fighter choice).

Hino has not only expressed strong interest in having Layton in the next game, but Sakurai is even aware of Hino's desire for Layton. There's a decent chance that if third-parties return that Hino and Sakurai have talked about Layton being in the next game, though whenever or not Sakurai agrees to have Layton in is a different question entirely.

 

[Noler_Mass]

With Suda51, he was just "yeah, that'd be cool". There's no indication that he's going to push Travis Touchdown based on this statement. As for a Capcom rep, from what we know so far, Capcom's preference is Mega Man and Yoshinori Ono stated that if he wanted any rep from Capcom, it'd be Mega Man (although stated that M. Bison was his preferred Street Fighter choice).

Hino has not only expressed strong interest in having Layton in the next game, but Sakurai is even aware of Hino's desire for Layton. There's a decent chance that if third-parties return that Hino and Sakurai have talked about Layton being in the next game, though whenever or not Sakurai agrees to have Layton in is a different question entirely.

I want m. Bison just to hear ryu/megaman fans complain

 

[Deleted member]

I want m. Bison just to hear ryu/megaman fans complain

That'd actually be quite funny to see, despite how much I want to see Mega Man. I guess Ono would get what he wants after all.

 

[FourStar]

Only real issue I have with that thing is that Chrom is dreadfully low even though he is extremely likely. Like as much as people don't want to admit it he is the most likely fire emblem character. If I were to make one of those it would be...

QUITE POSSIBLE: king k, Ridley, palutena, mewtwo, takamaru, little Mac, shulk, Isaac, Chrom

WHO THE HELL KNOWS: everyone else

you pretty much summed it up. except WHO THE HELL KNOWS:, should be, WHO I WANT IN THE GAME:. because once you take out quite possible characters in the prediction, then everyone starts to add weird ass characters to the list of possible characters

 

[3Bismyname]

With Suda51, he was just "yeah, that'd be cool". There's no indication that he's going to push Travis Touchdown based on this statement. As for a Capcom rep, from what we know so far, Capcom's preference is Mega Man and Yoshinori Ono stated that if he wanted any rep from Capcom, it'd be Mega Man (although stated that M. Bison was his preferred Street Fighter choice).

Hino has not only expressed strong interest in having Layton in the next game, but Sakurai is even aware of Hino's desire for Layton. There's a decent chance that if third-parties return that Hino and Sakurai have talked about Layton being in the next game, though whenever or not Sakurai agrees to have Layton in is a different question entirely.

ok so what about Meat Team ? they have stated how much they would love to have Meat Boy in Smash. they even said that was a reason they wanted to develop a Meat Boy on a Nintendo platform. all im saying is that some developer saying "I want this" doesnt mean theyre character is more likely than someone who merits it just as much if not more so than them.

 

[FourStar]

i'm pretty sure 90% of all video game creators (not including FPS games) would like their characters in Smash

 

[Deleted member]

ok so what about Meat Team ? they have stated how much they would love to have Meat Boy in Smash. they even said that was a reason they wanted to develop a Meat Boy on a Nintendo platform. all im saying is that some developer saying "I want this" doesnt mean theyre character is more likely than someone who merits it just as much if not more so than them.

Except that Meat Boy is ineligible, so they wouldn't get their way no matter how much they wanted Meat Boy in Smash.

 

[Noler_Mass]

That'd actually be quite funny to see, despite how much I want to see Mega Man. I guess Ono would get what he wants after all.

Sad ryu

 

[3Bismyname]

Except that Meat Boy is ineligible, so they wouldn't get their way no matter how much they wanted Meat Boy in Smash.

except he is. he's on the WiiWare so he has been on a Nintendo platform and hes a video game character first so yeah.

edit: sorry i just noticed it was cancelled. point is thats still a very flawed system and holds little merit as tons of developers have expressed some level of interest

 

[Deleted member]

Hino has not only expressed strong interest in having Layton in the next game, but Sakurai is even aware of Hino's desire for Layton. There's a decent chance that if third-parties return that Hino and Sakurai have talked about Layton being in the next game, though whenever or not Sakurai agrees to have Layton in is a different question entirely.

You've completely misunderstood the sources I gave.

The first one was Hino answering a fan's question about Layton appearing in Smash Bros. or Mario Kart, to which he said "that would be a wonderful opportunity".
The second one was a gaming talk show that both Sakurai and Hino were a part of that the presentation moderator said to the both of them that Layton should be in Smash Bros.

Neither source gives any hint that Hino has "strong" interest in it. Just that it is possible the two talked about it.

Although, there was that Layton Twitter thing Nintendo made that was joking about joining a Smash Bros. tournament...
Though "Layton" stated that he wanted no part of it after seeing it was just a "barbaric test of strength" that required no intelligence to compete.

 

[Noler_Mass]

except he is. he's on the WiiWare so he has been on a Nintendo platform and hes a video game character first so yeah.

edit: sorry i just noticed it was cancelled

I hope I'm not crushing your dreams by saying it doesn't matter if super meat boy was on Nintendo consoles he still wouldn't get in the game. This isn't PSAS here. We get actually important characters.

 

[3Bismyname]

I hope I'm not crushing your dreams by saying it doesn't matter if super meat boy was on Nintendo consoles he still wouldn't get in the game. This isn't PSAS here. We get actually important characters.

u say that like i want Meat Boy...

 

[N3ON]

The only people who think Meat Boy actually has a chance are the over-inflated egos at Team Meat.

 

[Noler_Mass]

I'm just saying its not even worth discussing super meat boy is just a worthless bag of meat!

 

[Deleted member]

Only real issue I have with that thing is that Chrom is dreadfully low even though he is extremely likely. Like as much as people don't want to admit it he is the most likely fire emblem character. If I were to make one of those it would be...

QUITE POSSIBLE: king k, Ridley, palutena, mewtwo, takamaru, little Mac, shulk, Isaac, Chrom

WHO THE HELL KNOWS: everyone else

I'd say that a C is a pretty fair indication of Chrom's odds.

If there were to be a newcomer, I would say that Chrom would be the most likely addition since I don't see Sakurai going with anyone else. That said, I don't think he's all that likely and as a matter of fact, pretty overrated. The problem with Chrom is that he suffers from a very bad case of "expected but not wanted" and when we have Roy has a major competition for him, that is something that will hurt Chrom strongly. He's also seen as a bland character overall and doesn't really stand out in his game as much as other Lords did.

I think it'll be Marth, Ike and Roy, but if there were to be a fourth one, it'd be Chrom.

 

[Noler_Mass]

I'd say that a C is a pretty fair indication of Chrom's odds.

If there were to be a newcomer, I would say that Chrom would be the most likely addition since I don't see Sakurai going with anyone else. That said, I don't think he's all that likely and as a matter of fact, pretty overrated. The problem with Chrom is that he suffers from a very bad case of "expected but not wanted" and when we have Roy has a major competition for him, that is something that will hurt Chrom strongly. He's also seen as a bland character overall and doesn't really stand out in his game as much as other Lords did.

I think it'll be Marth, Ike and Roy, but if there were to be a fourth one, it'd be Chrom.

Roy is bland too. Chrom is wanted. By me. Most of the reason no one seems to want him is because they are too scared people are gonna go like GEN 13 LOZER. I'm not though. I've played every American fire emblem and Chrom is one of the best lords. Something that majorly hurts Roy's chances is that his game wasn't released in America, this wasn't a problem for Melee because no fire emblem games had been released in America. But since fire emblem is popular in America, people who like a character in ssb4 may want to play that characters game, with Chrom this is possible, with Roy this is not. Basically all he's got for him is the fact that he's a veteran. I think he could be in, but he'd end up being a low priority clone again while Chrom would likely be a high priority character with a unique moveset.

As for the other fire emblem roster spot that I believe is being fought for by Ike,robin,lyn,the black knight,other important fire emblem character, is completely up in the air and impossible to judge. I think we can safely assume that Marth and Chrom are locks while Roy will likely be a low priority character that may or may not be cut. If he were cut he would probably be DLC unless Ike doesn't make the official roster, in that case Ike would be DLC and Roy would be out of luck.

 

[Deleted member]

No, it's because Chrom is frigging bland.
The best people can come up with him is to be the "middle ground" between Marth's weaker, faster style and Ike's slower, stronger style.

With Roy, you've got a fire sword. Fire swords are not bland.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Not to mention the whole "middle ground" thing can also be done by Roy too. He's kind of already like that if you compare him to Marth and Ike.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

You honestly don't know how to debate do you Noler?

Okay.... Step by step people.

Roy is bland too. Chrom is wanted. By me.

Roy is wanted by the majority. Plus why is "I want him," a valid argument?

Most of the reason no one seems to want him is because they are too scared people are gonna go like GEN 13 LOZER. I.

Don't assume. It makes you look ignorant.

The majority of us don't support Chrom because we find him boring or simply want other FE characters. Not because we fear the new.

I've played every American fire emblem and Chrom is one of the best lords.

This is opinion. Do not treat it as fact.

Something that majorly hurts Roy's chances is that his game wasn't released in America, this wasn't a problem for Melee because no fire emblem games had been released in America.

Explain Lucas.

Being Japan only doesn't do anything to a character's chances. Especially when Japan is the main demographic.

But since fire emblem is popular in America, people who like a character in ssb4 may want to play that characters game, with Chrom this is possible, with Roy this is not.

There is such a thing as online ROMs. You know that right? They're completely translated too.

Basically all he's got for him is the fact that he's a veteran.

He has a lot more than that. Chrono can explain how popular Roy is in Japan.

And getting most of you popularity from smash is not a bad thing. Ice Climbers, Game and Watch, R.O.B., Jigglypuff, Ness, Lucas, Captain Falcon and Sheik are in the same boat. You wouldn't dream of removing them, would you?

I think he could be in, but he'd end up being a low priority clone again while Chrom would likely be a high priority character with a unique moveset.

Roy could also be made to be original while Chrom could be a clone. There's no way to tell.

As for the other fire emblem roster spot that I believe is being fought for by Ike,robin,lyn,the black knight,other important fire emblem character, is completely up in the air and impossible to judge. I think we can safely assume that Marth and Chrom are locks while Roy will likely be a low priority character that may or may not be cut. If he were cut he would probably be DLC unless Ike doesn't make the official roster, in that case Ike would be DLC and Roy would be out of luck.

Chrom is not a lock. Do not treat him as one until he is comfirmed.

That's enough from now.... Noler... Never... I repeat... NEVER view a character as a lock until they are confirmed. It will only come back and bite you in the but later.

 

[ssbHex]

Group A: Very likely:
King K. Rool, Ridley, Mewtwo, Palutena, Takamaru, Little Mac, Shulk

Group B: Good chance:
Dixie Kong, Roy, Mach Rider, Isaac, Mega Man*

Group C: Fair shot:
Toad, Bowser Jr., Ghirahim, Krystal, Samurai Goroh, Chrom, Saki Amamiya, Professor Layton*, Lloyd Irving*

Group D: Unlikely, but still possible:
Dr. Mario, Paper Mario, Waluigi, Mona, Toon Zelda/Sheik, Pichu, Black Shadow, Medusa, Dillon, Pac-Man, Cress Albane, Geno

*: Position is assuming that third-parties return.

I'm thinking we'll get ten to twelve newcomers in the next game (not counting Mewtwo and Roy).

Is this a tier list of likelihood? A couple of gripes

Shulk's likelihood is overrated. He could very well end up being a one-game wonder, especially since X for WiiU has shown no indication of his inclusion thus far. It may be too soon for him.

Mach Rider seems unlikely to me. Put him D tier. If Sakurai couldn't make Balloon Fighter work I doubt he can make Mach Rider work.

Dillon should be C tier. He has 2 games now, and unlike some other characters, is the definitive protagonist of his own series.(Unlike Isaac, Saki, Shulk, etc) He's also probably more likely than any 3rd party not named Megaman.

There are also several characters missing from this list that I think should be included, but I'd rather not be the one to list them.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Is this a tier list of likelihood? A couple of gripes

Shulk's likelihood is overrated. He could very well end up being a one-game wonder, especially since X for WiiU has shown no indication of his inclusion thus far. It may be too soon for him.

Mach Rider seems unlikely to me. Put him D tier. If Sakurai couldn't make Balloon Fighter work I doubt he can make Mach Rider work.

Dillon should be C tier. He has 2 games now, and unlike some other characters, is the definitive protagonist of his own series.(Unlike Isaac, Saki, Shulk, etc) He's also probably more likely than any 3rd party not named Megaman.

There are also several characters missing from this list that I think should be included, but I'd rather not be the one to list them.

It's his own personal list dude.

And Dillon is first party. Not third party.

 

[ssbHex]

It's his own personal list dude.

And Dillon is first party. Not third party.

Yeah, that's why I asked for the context. I couldn't be bothered to read it. My bad.

And yes I know Dillon is first-party. Perhaps I worded that incorrectly. What I meant was, he is more likely than any of the third parties listed(Layton, Lloyd).

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yeah, that's why I asked for the context. I couldn't be bothered to read it. My bad.

And yes I know Dillon is first-party. Perhaps I worded that incorrectly. What I meant was, he is more likely than any of the third parties listed(Layton, Lloyd).

No problem.

Ah... I see. My mistake.