[SPOILER ALERT] - The Sevens Squares. - A Square-Enix general support threads.

[timbo8]

Ah the same we have been talking about for awhile now. Which is

Who would the 2nd Square Enix character

Are leakers and Insiders wrong about Square characters, or are they correct

DQ vs Geno vs Sephiroth vs Sora, as those are most names being spoken of at the moment.

Thats basically the the rundown of what has been discussed.

okay i though something change or somethig

 

[A.G.L.]

While I get what you mean, we don't know the full scenario of it. And considering that Disney is said to be hard to work with, I'm still skeptical. If Universal wasn't working with Nintendo right now, then maybe I could see something along the lines of "if we get rights to make Super Mario movies, you get access to Sora (sort of like how Sega got Wreck-It Ralph for Sega All Star racing and Disney got access to Sonic and Eggman for the movie.

Except Warner Brothers who is equally a competitor to Universal as Disney is, is working on Detective Pikachu. So that means Nintendo is willing to work with competitors of Universal. And keep in mind like I said Disney can work with others when they see it being profitable. Bob Iger Disney's CEO has proven many times Disney can close deals that seem impossible. He and Alan Horn Disney's Chair of Entertainment, have also proven they can work with game companies. As they convinced several game companies to appear in Wreck it Ralph 1 and this included Nintendo and Square Enix.

 

[Icewolff92]

Except Warner Brothers who is equally a competitor to Universal as Disney is, is working on Detective Pikachu. So that means Nintendo is willing to work with competitors of Universal. And keep in mind like I said Disney can work with others when they see it being profitable. Bob Iger Disney's CEO has proven many times Disney can close deals that seem impossible. He and Alan Horn Disney's Chair of Entertainment, have also proven they can work with game studios. As they convinced several game studios to appear in Wreck it Ralph 1 and this included Nintendo and Square Enix.

That's not entirely true. Universal got the movie first but later went it to Warner Brothers due to the situation with Legendary
With that said on top of it. It's not Nintendo that owns the movie rights to Pokemon. That's TCP also known as The Pokemon Company.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/pokemon-movie-rights-land-at-912400

So sorry but your argument with DP doesn't really work here. That being said. is it impossible for Sora to join? Nope, that could happen. I'm just not seeing it all things considered

 

[Deleted member]

Except Square already did a three way partnership with 2B, and had to split profits with Bandai Namco & Platinum Games.

Platinum doesn't own the games they work on, they had as much profit from it as they did from Bayonetta and the TW101 Spirits, which is none.
If you want proof of that, just look at the trademarks in the website, they're not listed there even though Game Freak and Monolith Soft. are.

Also there is no guarantee Disney would not share profits with Square on Amiibo sales. Square Enix online store sells KH merchandise. So its likely Square does make some profit from KH merchandise. Especially since Disney dissolved Disney Interactive Studios in 2016 that was in charge of KH1 & KH2 alongside Square Enix. After this Disney decided to not do 1st party games and focus on strengthening all 3rd party games and studios. This included Square, so even more reason that Square is likely receiving profit from KH merchandise. As Disney right now has no interest in their own game studio, they are really relying on 3rd party studios. And they want to keep those Game companies who are making games for them happy. Which would be likely they will let said Game studios make profit from merchandise sold, even if its not as much as Disney would make.

What does this have anything to do with them not wanting to share profits with Nintendo and Disney? Because if this really was a case of one or the other and Nintendo asking for one of their characters, Square won't profit as much from Sora as they would from others that are exclusively owned by them. Even more likely they wouldn't gain anything from Sora other than marketing as they don't own the KH brand. And I doubt Disney is one to be kind on sharing royalties.

 

[KidCham]

Geno, is not out of the running in my opinion. It should be noted that in leaks both of these characters were targeted. Which seems suspicious, given their high popularity. Geno brings a unknown/ wild card factor in this. He is the character that is unpredictable as he could make it in on nostalgia. He would be going against all Square business decision patterns, but they could choose him as a sign of good faith towards fans, Disney has proven many times that nostalgia sells, and if he has a secret remake of SMRPG in development it would really lean in his favor. Yoko Shimomura is also the SMRPG composer, so she could also be used here.

I'm not meant to be negative but the Geno being highly popular is wrong, he is mainly popular among the smash community and mostly in the west as japan isn't requesting him that much

You have to take into account that when you want to appeal to the most, it's not a good idea to target the community that already have the game.
Most people having smash will buy every DLC no matter what for the sake of completude

DLC like Joker brings Persona 5 community and fanbase, you see among the smash community, there isn't a thread supporting Joker, he wasn't big

Yet the persona 5 community is big, and many would be willing to buy smash to play Joker in it.

You have to think the DLC like that.


On another topic, i want to bring another serie no one thinks about from Square and it's Bravely, and Square Enix teased a Bravely Third this year coming probably in 2019 and Agnes from Bravely Default would be a good idea.

 

[A.G.L.]

Platinum doesn't own the games they work on, they had as much profit from it as they did from Bayonetta and the TW101 Spirits, which is none.
If you want proof of that, just look at the trademarks in the website, they're not listed there even though Game Freak and Monolith Soft. are.

What does this have anything to do with them not wanting to share profits with Nintendo and Disney? Because if this really was a case of one or the other and Nintendo asking for one of their characters, Square won't profit as much from Sora as they would from others that are exclusively owned by them. Even more likely they wouldn't gain anything from Sora other than marketing as they don't own the KH brand. And I doubt Disney is one to be kind on sharing royalties.

Because Square could realize that Sora despite sharing profits still would make them the most money. Let me put this into perspective with financial figures to further illustrate my point. Kingdom hearts has a total of 24 million in sales so far. This does not include Kingdom Hearts 3 that will likely push the franchise right behind Final Fantasy in sales. Kingdom Hearts 1 has shipped 5.6 million copies world wide, and 1.5 million copies in Japan, and 3.0 million copies in North America. By October 2013 Kingdom Hearts 1 has sold more than 20 million copies worldwide.


Lets compare this information against the competition:


Dragon Quest itself has 75 million in profits so far, thats 51 million more than KH, which is significant I admit that.

However 75% Dragon Quest 11 sales came from Japan, which clearly states the majority of Dragon Quest fanbase is in Japan, and therefore not globally popular.

Dragon Quest is not a globally popular franchise, and does not match how Square does deals. All recent cross promoted picks are globally popular and in Dragon Quest's case you will be dealing with 4 companies and Sugiyama, which is way more than Disney, Nintendo and Square.

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Super Mario RPG, is not amongst the most popular Square games, nor among its most profitable. Geno is not recognized as the top 5 Square characters and he has not had a recent game since 1996, thats 22 years ago. Also Square is not like Nintendo, they do not try to appease fans by putting legacy characters as their cross promoted picks. As we would have Warrior Light instead of Noctis in Tekken 7.


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Sephiroth, would fit the fact that Square chooses FF picks as their cross promoted picks exception 2B. However they do not choose the same series twice in the same game. And it would make more sense since Cloud is already cross promoting FF franchise in Smash. They will choose another franchise to help them cross promote that franchise as well.


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Crono does not match the rules Square follows when it comes to cross promotion. These rules are the following, they help Square cross promote and help them make both long term and short term income. They as a character represent the company. And they are still relevant.

Crono would only help represent them as a company, but he would be able to help Square do what they love, which is cross promotion. Also he is not still relative as his game was released 23 years ago and has not had a sequel. He is in a similar boat as Geno, as Square does not prioritize legacy characters over recent characters.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

In conclusion despite sharing sales with Disney, Square still has the highest possibility of making the most income both short term and long term with Sora. Aside from Cloud he is the next most globally popular character, and would help them achieve sales globally and not just in Japan. By choosing Sora they are choosing a safe pick, because they know he will sell and not have a gamble like a DQ character. And of course they can cross promote off of him, more than they could with any of the other characters. Also again you underestimate Disney, I have seen a lot of Disney bias on this forum. And that is mainly due to mis information and not wanting Disney anywhere near video game companies. Nowhere is there concrete evidence that Disney is this giant that gobbles up the majority of profits when it comes to the games they make with 3rd party game companies and leaves little for their game partners. If this were the case then why do these game companies continue to work with Disney? Not only is Square Enix making a KH3, but an Avengers game. Also nowhere is it shown that Disney does not share profits when it comes to merchandise. Everyone really underestimates Disney when it comes them being persuasive, there is a reason they are the biggest media company. Bob Iger has helmed the acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel, Lucasflms, and FOX. All of these seemed impossible that Disney would be able to acquire and yet they did. Also he and Alan Horn convinced Sony(a rival company) to enter an agreement with them so the MCU could have Spiderman. Finally in Wreck it Ralph 1, Disney convinced several game companies to partner with them, and this included Nintendo and Square Enix. I really would stop pushing Disney as the boogeyman thats out to get profits and nothing else, because thats just not how Disney works. They have survived and thrived this long, due to the fact Disney knows how to negotiate. Disney knows when it comes to deals, they know what time is right push and when its not the right time. And they have also survived and thrived this long, because they know how to build good relations with other companies.

 

[MeatOfJustice]

I'm not meant to be negative but the Geno being highly popular is wrong, he is mainly popular among the smash community and mostly in the west as japan isn't requesting him that much

You have to take into account that when you want to appeal to the most, it's not a good idea to target the community that already have the game.
Most people having smash will buy every DLC no matter what for the sake of completude

DLC like Joker brings Persona 5 community and fanbase, you see among the smash community, there isn't a thread supporting Joker, he wasn't big

Yet the persona 5 community is big, and many would be willing to buy smash to play Joker in it.

You have to think the DLC like that.


On another topic, i want to bring another serie no one thinks about from Square and it's Bravely, and Square Enix teased a Bravely Third this year coming probably in 2019 and Agnes from Bravely Default would be a good idea.

There was a Joker support thread, but it was moved to character discussion, now it's the social thread.

 

[Nekoo]

DLC like Joker brings Persona 5 community and fanbase, you see among the smash community, there isn't a thread supporting Joker, he wasn't big

That's not true.

Joker is like Cloud, or let say, Ryu.

A characters people "didn't know they wanted" or rather "Dissmised the idea quickly" putting it under the "never ever" categories, because of the dumb bull**** rules that community makes about characters getting in smash.

But if you asks "If you had to add a characters into smash, without caring about the so called rules, or the one you think is impossible", I can bet you we would see Joker up there quite a lot.

Just look at the OVERWHELMING reaction, nearly going Cloud level at his inclusion.

People wanted him. They just were told he wasn't happening.

 

[KidCham]

Crono does not match the rules Square follows when it comes to cross promotion. These rules are the following, they help Square cross promote and help them make both long term and short term income. They as a character represent the company. And they are still relevant.

Crono would only help represent them as a company, but he would be able to help Square do what they love, which is cross promotion. Also he is not still relative as his game was released 23 years ago and has not had a sequel. He is in a similar boat as Geno, as Square does not prioritize legacy characters over recent characters.

While Geno is not relevant anymore being a 22 years old game

It's not true for Crono Trigger being a 23 years old game, it's still relevant as they are porting the game on everything possible as well as steam and phones
and they want to bring it on switch very soon

 

[A.G.L.]

Im going to take a break from this forum for awhile friends, I keep seeing the same things being rehashed over and over. And its likely the Square rep will be the fourth or fifth DLC. So thats a long time to keep speculating, and also I will not be near my computer for some weeks as I will be traveling. I still will pop in from time to time to see how everyone is doing and if any news has been released. However I do need to take a step back to focus on other things. Its been fun debating all this, I will still pop in form time to time, but it will be much less than before. GoeGoe DaybreakHorizon AugustusB EarlTamm Nekoo Luigi The President osby PhilosophicAnimal Jovahexeon Joranvexeon Calane , plus many more. You guys have made this time of speculation excellent, and thanks for putting up with my long speculations and debates. Best of luck to everyone and their Square picks

 

[Icewolff92]

Because Square could realize that Sora despite sharing profits still would make them the most money. Let me put this into perspective with financial figures to further illustrate my point. Kingdom hearts has a total of 24 million in sales so far. This does not include Kingdom Hearts 3 that will likely push the franchise right behind Final Fantasy in sales. Kingdom Hearts 1 has shipped 5.6 million copies world wide, and 1.5 million copies in Japan, and 3.0 million copies in North America. By October 2013 Kingdom Hearts 1 has sold more than 20 million copies worldwide.


Lets compare this information against the competition:


Dragon Quest itself has 75 million in profits so far, thats 51 million more than KH, which is significant I admit that.

However 75% Dragon Quest 11 sales came from Japan, which clearly states the majority of Dragon Quest fanbase is in Japan, and therefore not globally popular.

Dragon Quest is not a globally popular franchise, and does not match how Square does deals. All recent cross promoted picks are globally popular and in Dragon Quest's case you will be dealing with 4 companies and Sugiyama, which is way more than Disney, Nintendo and Square.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Super Mario RPG, is not amongst the most popular Square games, nor among its most profitable. Geno is not recognized as the top 5 Square characters and he has not had a recent game since 1996, thats 22 years ago. Also Square is not like Nintendo, they do not try to appease fans by putting legacy characters as their cross promoted picks. As we would have Warrior Light instead of Noctis in Tekken 7.


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Sephiroth, would fit the fact that Square chooses FF picks as their cross promoted picks exception 2B. However they do not choose the same series twice in the same game. And it would make more sense since Cloud is already cross promoting FF franchise in Smash. They will choose another franchise to help them cross promote that franchise as well.


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Crono does not match the rules Square follows when it comes to cross promotion. These rules are the following, they help Square cross promote and help them make both long term and short term income. They as a character represent the company. And they are still relevant.

Crono would only help represent them as a company, but he would be able to help Square do what they love, which is cross promotion. Also he is not still relative as his game was released 23 years ago and has not had a sequel. He is in a similar boat as Geno, as Square does not prioritize legacy characters over recent characters.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

In conclusion despite sharing sales with Disney, Square still has the highest possibility of making the most income both short term and long term with Sora. Aside from Cloud he is the next most globally popular character, and would help them achieve sales globally and not just in Japan. By choosing Sora they are choosing a safe pick, because they know he will sell and not have a gamble like a DQ character. And of course they can cross promote off of him, more than they could with any of the other characters. Also again you underestimate Disney, I have seen a lot of Disney bias on this forum. And that is mainly due to mis information and not wanting Disney anywhere near video game companies. Nowhere is there concrete evidence that Disney is this giant that gobbles up the majority of profits when it comes to the games they make with 3rd party game companies and leaves little for their game partners. If this were the case then why do these game companies continue to work with Disney? Not only is Square Enix making a KH3, but an Avengers game. Also nowhere is it shown that Disney does not share profits when it comes to merchandise. Everyone really underestimates Disney when it comes them being persuasive, there is a reason they are the biggest media company. Bob Iger has helmed the acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel, Lucasflms, and FOX. All of these seemed impossible that Disney would be able to acquire and yet they did. Also he and Alan Horn convinced Sony(a rival company) to enter an agreement with them so the MCU could have Spiderman. Finally in Wreck it Ralph 1, Disney convinced several game companies to partner with them, and this included Nintendo and Square Enix. I really would stop pushing Disney as the boogeyman thats out to get profits and nothing else, because thats just not how Disney works. They have survived and thrived this long, due to the fact Disney knows how to negotiate. Disney knows when it comes to deals, they know what time is right push and when its not the right time. And they have also survived and thrived this long, because they know how to build good relations with other companies.

Disney not being a boogeyman and only thinking about getting profits?... Please tell me that I'm not reading it right. No offense, but this is one of the most laughable things I ever read. There is arguably no company that is more money hungry than them.

Why did they want those characters to cameo (and it was only a cameo I might add) Because it would help Wreck-It Ralph sell tickets.

Why did they want Spiderman back? Because it would give them more buck from the MCU? Plus Sony at that time was desperate, close to going bankrupt at that time

Why did they want Lucasfilm? Because they know Star Wars = cash.

Why did they want Fox? Because Fox lies on tons of IPs, on top of owning most of Hulu and a streaming service in Europe which would make it easier for them to launch Disney Plus

I said it before, and I say it again. I don't think Sora is as impossible as some people think, but you are extremely naive if you think Disney is easy to work with. They will more than likely have as much percent of the amiibo sales, DLC sales etc that they can that I could see Nintendo would just say "screw it". At least with someone like Joker, they only had to work with Atlus and Sega, two companies that they have a solid relationship with which some fail to realize just because Persona 5 is Playstation exclusive as of now.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Here's the post I've been working on and teasing for the past two days. Let me introduce you to:

THE ULTIMATE heh SQUARE ENIX CHARACTER ARGUMENT​

I'm on a month long break, and to keep my brain from rotting out of my head I've decided to write a series of in-depth speculation posts about current popular Smash Bros. Ultimate Speculation and topics that personally interest me within it. The idea of a Square Enix character has been prevalent in this speculation cycle since at least October, and has recently hit a climax with seemingly everyone and their mom having a source and going after information about the elusive Square Enix character. While I've argued with many about Sora, Geno, and Dragon Quest, I wanted to take an in-depth look into every potential Square Enix pick and argue the pros and cons of their inclusion, which led to this. This is a long post—likely the longest I've written and will ever write—clocking in at over 6,000 words. So buckle up, and I hope you enjoy the ride!

Spoiler: Background - On third parties

While Sakurai has commented on third parties in the past, he's been quite vague, only saying that the characters must appear on Nintendo consoles, both companies must want them and Sakurai must have some artistic license, the character must carry history with them, and (more recently) implying that third parties must have worldwide popularity

Based off of this, I'm going to argue that a third party representative must be at least one of two things: historic and iconic

So, let's take a brief look at our current third parties and how they fit this criteria (echoes are considered with their original counterpart):
Snake: Metal Gear Solid had it's starts on old-computer systems and even had an NES port, and was launched into fame thanks to the well-known Metal Gear Solid franchise headed by Hideo Kojima. Granted, Snake's inclusion was a favor to a friend, but the fact still stands that Snake falls under both criteria.
Sonic: The mascot of Sega himself once went toe-to-toe with Mario and Nintendo in one of the most iconic showdowns in gaming history, and even now that Sega's a third party Sonic is still one of the larger video game series despite it's mis-steps. He more than checks off both criteria.
Megaman: Up until Megaman 7 and Megaman X4 the Megaman series was exclusive to Nintendo, making Megaman a hallmark of early Nintendo, and he even appeared as a main character on the 1980s NES-centered cartoon Captain N. The series remained active from the NES era up until the 7th generation (Wii U, PS4, Xbox One) in one way or another before teetering off, but the series has recently been rebooted with Megaman 11 and a new Megaman X game likely in the works. He handily stands under both criteria.
Pac-Man: Dude's an arcade legend. Mostly everyone knows who Pac-Man is, or has played it in some way shape or form. He speaks for himself, 'nuff said.
Ryu: Another arcade legend, but Ryu also made a notable jump into the console market and has remained on top of the Fighting Game Genre since then. He checks off both boxes.
Cloud: Final Fantasy is undoubtedly the most popular JRPG series, and until the Nintendo 64 was synonymous with Nintendo. Final Fantasy VII is one of the most popular games of all time, and represents a moment in gaming history when Square Enix gave Nintendo a big old middle finger and moved over to Playstation. An odd piece of history to represent, but historic and iconic nonetheless.
Bayonetta: I'll admit this is a bit of an odd one to argue given that Bayonetta as a series is much more recent than the other third parties and much less popular. That being said, I'll still argue that she's iconic. The original Bayonetta was a cult classic, and when a sequel couldn't be funded, Nintendo swooped in and paid for it themselves, and she represents this weird moment in Nintendo history when Nintendo funded an M rated series for the failing Wii U. Since then, Bayonetta has (oddly enough) become synonymous with Nintendo in the modern era, making her a natural inclusion
Simon Belmont: Similar to Megaman or Final Fantasy, Castlevania is synonymous with classic Nintendo, and Simon Belmont also appeared on Captain N as a main character. The Castlevania franchise was active and renowned up until Konami canned it towards the end of the 7th generation, even spawning it's own genre of games, the Metroidvania, in it and Metroid's styles. He definitely checks off both criteria
Joker: I'm still in shock that they added him. I never thought it would happen, but it did. Persona 5 marks a distinct shift in both the series and the JRPG genre towards worldwide popularity, selling 2 million copies as of December 1st 2017 making it the highest selling Persona 5. Persona 5 also was a game of the year contender alongside Breath of the Wild and won best RPG at the Game Awards. Joker doesn't just represent Persona 5 though, he also represents Shin Megami Tensei, an iconic series with a long history of Nintendo exclusives, according to the press release for his inclusion in Smash Bros:

The Persona games are a spinoff of the popular Shin Megami Tensei franchise, which has a long and storied history in the world of video games – with many of the games appearing on Nintendo systems

In doing so, he checks off both criteria with his inclusion.

So, all of our third parties but 1 are historic and iconic, with the 1 left being iconic but also having special circumstances. This is important to consider.

Spoiler: Background - Why a Square Enix Character?

For one, a Square Enix character in Smash Ultimate has to be one of, if not the worst kept secret in Nintendo history. We've known about this since at least October, and the rumblings of it began as early as March when the game was first teased. While many believe that leakers have been "BTFO" with the advent of no one knowing about Joker or his impending reveal at The Game Awards, too many people have heard about this for it NOT to happen at this point. Unless Nintendo and Square Enix are playing 5 Dimensional Chess and spreading misinformation about there being a Square Enix character for ****s and giggles, we're getting one, and the misinformation is to mask who it is. Of course, we have that supposed list of 7 characters and accounts of who made it to negotiations and who didn't, but seeing as Nintendo have shown themselves capable of spreading convincing misinformation (Every insider claimed we were getting Metroid Prime and no Smash at The Game Awards only for us to get Joker) I would throw everything we know about the Square Enix character out of the window. For the sake of this post, I'll be doing just that, and I'll be arguing why we should ALL do that in my next speculation piece.

Even if the leaks are fake, I believe there's reason to believe that we're getting a Square Enix character. For one, Square Enix has been oddly liberal with their IPs as of late, adding Noctis (Final Fantasy XV) into Tekken, Behemoth (Final Fantasy) in Monster Hunter, Assassin's Creed with Final Fantasy XV, and 2B (Nier: Automata) into Soul Calibur 6. When discussing how Noctis got into Tekken, it was stated that it was due to the relationship between Tekken producer Katsuhiro Harada and Final Fantasy XV director Hajime Tabata, showing that all it takes is some good blood to get the ball rolling. Fortunately, not only is Sakurai friends with Tetsuya Normura, but Square Enix seems to be in a second golden age with Nintendo, with Octopath Traveler performing better than expected. Prior to its release, Square Enix said that if Octopath Traveler was successful, they would focus on the Switch as a console; staying true to their word Square Enix telling those present at an earnings conference to expect more games like Octopath Traveler and creating a division to specifically focus on making Switch games. Square Enix has every reason to go to Nintendo and get a character of their's in Nintendo; it's win-win, they get exposure for one of their series, and Nintendo gets massive press for Smash Bros.

So then the question becomes: which one?

Spoiler: Erdrick/Dragon Quest Character

This is what inspired me to write this post, given that people have argued for Sora, Geno, and other roster picks citing all of these articles but never Erdrick or another Dragon Quest character. You can thank me later Calane

Anyways, let's begin with a history lesson. Dragon Quest is the grandfather of the entire RPG genre, with the first game in the series releasing on the NES an entire year and a half before the first Final Fantasy game. It is Square Enix's 2nd best selling series, sitting at 75 million units sold as of a year ago between its main titles and spin-offs, and has a long history with Nintendo, with every main entry in the series being playable on Nintendo consoles (only 2 of 11 main series games weren't on Nintendo consoles initially, being 7 and 8, though they later received 3DS remakes). Nintendo even published Dragon Quest I, VI, VII, VIII, and IX within Western countries. IX is notable as it was a third-party DS game published by Nintendo, something only done for Dragon Quest and Level-5 games in the DS era. Mario and co. have also crossed over with the Dragon Quest bunch multiple times in the Fortune Street series, creating a precedent for a crossover between Nintendo and Dragon Quest. More recently, Dragon Quest XI was one of the first games revealed for the Nintendo Switch, then called the Nintendo NX, and more recently has been announced to be an upgraded version named Dragon Quest XI S (appearing at this year's Jump Festa), which will include voice acting among other new features. Needless to say, the ties between Nintendo and Dragon Quest are VERY strong.

Additionally Dragon Quest's is a cultural phenomenon in Japan. This game series is so large that it's spawned an urban myth on the level of "the average human eats 8 spiders in their sleep per year" about there being a law that Dragon Quest games had to be released on weekends, or that when Dragon Quest games released it was akin to a national holiday. While there is a Dragon Quest Day, it's an unofficial holiday, and in reality, 300 kids were arrested for truancy when Dragon Quest III released and muggings of Dragon Quest games became so widespread that there were hearings about in the Japanese parliament, leading the developers to feel bad about creating a nationwide issue and moving the game's release dates to the weekend. The series is large enough to be a common conversation topic in Japan, and is considered by many within the Japanese gaming industry to be Japan's national game. I **** you not, this series is so big that it caused the entire staff of the HiatusxHiatus HunterxHunter anime to go on hiatus JUST TO PLAY DRAGON QUEST, the series has a world record in the Guinness Book of World Records for being the first game to inspire a ballet, and has an amusement park attraction at Universal Studios Japan (where Nintendo will be soon), that's is how big this series is.

Due to Dragon Quest's Japanese popularity, Sakurai talks about it quite a bit. In the Sakurai x Normura Interview Sakurai mentions game designer Yosuke Saito (who worked on Dragon Quest X) on "a list of game designers born in 1970, [where] there's quite a few big names" alongside Hideki Kamiya, Yoko Taro, and John Carmack, and participated in a roundtable discussion with series creator Yuji Horii and Junichi Masuda of Pokémon fame where they discussed Dragon Quest XI. He's notably advocated for the series twice, first in 2011 when he stood up for Dragon Quest X and expressed that he looks forward to it, and plays Devil's Advocate for the series' difficulty, also directly acknowledging the series' popularity in the process, and went far as finding a workaround to play Dragon Quest Heroes among other games while recovering from his arm injury.. Sakurai also notably lists Dragon Quest III alongside Megaman, Final Fantasy, and Ocarina of Time among others when talking about anniversaries, and COMPARES KIRBY (you know, that one character that HE CREATED AND TREATS LIKE HIS CHILD) TO THE MAIN CHARACTER OF A DRAGON QUEST GAME. Needless to say, Dragon Quest is on Sakurai's radar.

Now, to address the common counterarguments:
The first is the series' western popularity. While the series is certainly historic, and is amazingly popular in Japan, it largely lacks a presence in the West, with 3 million+ out of 4 million copies (more than 75%) of Dragon Quest XI being sold in Japan instead of the West. It's no small secret that Square Enix has been fighting a decades long battle (sometimes alongside Nintendo) to make Dragon Quest popular in the West, and it seems like they're stacking the deck to make Dragon Quest XI the game that breaks through. I believe that Square Enix would be willing to make a gamble on the inclusion of a Dragon Quest character in Smash Bros. in an attempt to boost the series' western popularity. We've seen a good amount people interested in playing Persona with the inclusion of Joker, and "the Smash effect" could similarly boost Dragon Quest's western sales in the future.

Second, the licensing. Many people cite Dragon Quest as a "licensing nightmare" in an attempt to discredit the series' inclusion, but it's not as complicated as you'd think. Dragon Quest as a whole is between four parties: Square Enix (Development, IP ownership), Armor Project (game design), Bird Studio (character design), and Koichi Sugiyama (music). Of those four, two are no problem to deal with, being Square Enix and Armor Project, run by series' director Yuji Horii, both of whom have benefitted from positive relations with Nintendo and would no doubt like to have a Dragon Quest character in Smash to boost the series' Western popularity. That leaves Bird Studio, run by Akira Toriyama, and Koichi Sugiyama as the wildcards in rights negotiation for Dragon Quest content. However, I'm willing to believe that both will cooperate. For one, Akira Toriyama worked closely alongside Arc System Works and Namco Bandai to design Android 21, an original character, for Dragon Ball Fighterz. Namco's involvement in this scenario is notable, as they're also developer Smash Bros. Ultimate, and using their connections developing the Dragon Ball games, could bring Toriyama to the negotiating table if he isn't already there. Additionally, in developing at least Fighterz, the developers worked alongside Toei Animation and Shueisha instead of Toriyama, who made slight changes to the game to fit with the Dragon Ball IP, which could be taken as Toriyama taking a back seat when it comes to adaptations of his work. Given how many Dragon Ball games have been made, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case Goku, his star character, has been licensed out on a couple of occasions to Fuji TV and is the ambassador of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games, which leaves me with little doubt he'd be willing to work with Nintendo on a Dragon Quest character for Smash Bros (one of the largest crossovers ever) and grant Sakurai the proper artistic license to make a Dragon Quest character a reasonable inclusion. As for Sugiyama? The use of midi music files has been suggested multiple times and could be a viable way to get Dragon Quest into Smash Bros. if needed. If Nintendo and Sakurai decide to go the orchestral route they might run into trouble due to either money or Sugiyama's seeming unwillingness to let us worldwide players have orchestral music (this is overblown, however, as Dragon Quest XI had a midi soundtrack worldwide instead of just in the West), which is the only problem I could viably see happening. However, Nintendo has dealt with this before and will do it again if negotiations go right, at worst we just end up with midis instead of orchestral music and remixes. As for the controversy surrounding Sugiyama, that's a nonissue, given that Square Enix has made a statement about it saying that it doesn't speak to company policy and are moving ahead with Dragon Quest anyways.

If Square Enix has the chance to push Dragon Quest, I could easily see them doing so. I see a Dragon Quest character as one of, if not the likeliest Square Enix character given that everything seems to line up for it. Dragon Quest is the most historic choice, and while not iconic worldwide, has the proper circumstances surrounding it to make up for that fact and justify it's inclusion in Smash.

Spoiler: Sora

Surprise surprise, one of the top Sora supporters here is going to post a lengthy argument for him. While many have counted him out time and time again, there is a solid case to be made for Sora. As mentioned before, I'm not going to address insider information as I believe it should be thrown out the window (I'll elaborate on this in another mini-essay).

Kingdom Hearts is one of Square Enix's more notable series, selling 24 million units worldwide as of November 2017 making it Square Enix's fourth best selling series. While this may initially seem unimpressive, this is across only 15 titles (2 of which were remakes and 5 of which were collections of previous games). Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and Tomb Raider, Square Enix's top 3 best selling series, clock in at 54 titles, 29 titles, and 30 titles respectively. For Kingdom Hearts to accomplish that much in such a little amount is impressive. The series is a collaboration between Disney and Square Enix and uses both the Disney and Final Fantasy IPs alongside original characters, such as Sora. By sole merit of possessing Disney content a majority of people will know at least something about Kingdom Hearts. The series is also known for Kingdom Hearts 3, which at one point stood alongside games such as Duke Nukem Forever and Half-Life 3 as a game in a popular series trapped in development hell and became a meme within the gaming community because of this; Kingdom Hearts 3 has been teased since 2005, and ever since it's official announcement it's consistently placed within Japanese Gaming Magazine Famitsu's Weekly Most Wanted Games poll, showing Japanese popularity. On the Western front, Kingdom Hearts 3 won 16 awards out 29 nominations at E3 2018, which I believe is a good sign of Western popularity.

Stemming from Kingdom Heart's popularity, demand for Sora in Smash Bros. exists, and it's a lot larger than some would expect. Going back to the Smash Ballot era, the entire Kingdom Hearts community rallied behind Sora, with prominent Kingdom Hearts youtubers HMK and TheGamersJoint (at 36,000 and 59,000 subscribers respectively at the time) both making videos telling their fans to vote for Sora in the ballot. More recently, fans have been more vocal about their wants, with the king of Sm4sh, Zero, voicing his support for Sora and HMK telling a Disney executive to his face that the fans want Sora in Smash alongside reasons for his inclusion. Sora ranked number 1 on an Italian Smash Bros. Fighter Poll, number 5 for large Japanese magazine Inside's most anticipated Smash Bros. character, and number 5 on the Reddit Smash Ultimate Poll with 12,485 votes. Further evidence for an impressive ballot performance for Sora comes from the fact that in the Reddit Ultimate Poll: "The character with the most brigaders (was) Sora (more than half his voters came from non-reddit referrers). This shows that Kingdom Hearts fans care enough about Sora in Smash to vote on a large, unofficial Reddit poll, which would certainly translate to an official Nintendo ballot. Support for Sora even exists within Square Enix, as evidenced by this deleted tweet from series producer and Square Enix executive Shinji Hashimoto. Needless to say, there's a lot of people who want to see Sora in Smash Bros.

As a character, Sora is in an interesting place. While Sora is owned by Disney for all legal purposes, Disney and Square Enix have a gentlemen's agreement between them where Disney has to approach series director Tetsuya Normura and Square Enix to use him in any sort of marketing (source). This gentlemen's agreement is highly important, as evidenced by the canceled 2002 Kingdom Hearts cartoon series—which was canceled "so as to not jeopardize the relationship between Square Enix & Disney as they began to expand the franchise"—and more recently, the canceled Disney Kingdom Hearts game which is speculated to have been canceled due to Square Enix's disapproval. According to Disney of Japan executive Justin Scarpone, the process for negotiating Sora in Smash would go as such:

• Nintendo approaches Disney for negotiations
• Assuming fan demand exists, approval from Normura and Square Enix would be required
• Disney would then work alongside Nintendo to represent Sora accurately.

Let's go through this process bit by bit and look at some of the moving parts here.

To begin, Nintendo needs to convince Disney. This is where the most error can occur, and where the most variability in speculation exists. On one hand, you have users who have worked with Disney or know people who have worked with Disney such as NonSpecificGuy and PlayerOneTyler who express how difficult it is to work with Disney legal for even minor things, but you also have the claim from Scarpone that Disney "isn't restrictive, but particular," examples of Disney cross-promotion in video games, such as:

• Thanos in Fortnite in a time-exclusive game mode (one which seems to be making a return soon)
• Most recently, Wreck-It-Ralph in Fortnite
• Wreck-It-Ralph in Sonic and Sega All-Stars racing

and factors hinting that Disney may not be as soulless as some imagine them to be, such as Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3's exclusivity to Nintendo Switch (when it could make more money being multiplatform) and Normura being the one who decided to not make a Disney fighting game and not Disney. Additionally, Nintendo and Disney seem to be on good terms given the aforementioned exclusivity of Ultimate Alliance 3, the game show that the two made together about the Nintendo Switch, and the fact that Disney XD has streamed events such as the Sm4sh Wii U finals at EVO 2017 and if I recall correctly, the Invitational tournaments. Disney and Nintendo go way back past this, as far as the pre-NES era, and interestingly enough, Nintendo has also published games with Disney characters such as Epic Mickey (in Japan) and Disney's Magical Mirror Starring Mickey Mouse, which makes Disney similar to Dragon Quest in that regard. Overall, negotiations with Disney is a coinflip, but I believe that it's possible, especially if Nintendo and Disney work out a deal outside of Smash (similar to how Ralph ended up in Sega All-Stars racing due to Sonic being in Wreck-It-Ralph).

We've established that fan demand for Sora exists. Getting Normura's approval would be easy given Sakurai's positive relationship with Normura (he even praised Normura and his team for Kingdom Heart's 15th anniversary and expressed that he was a fan of the series), and extending to Square Enix Hashimoto's support of Sora bodes well for Nintendo getting general approval for Sora. While Square Enix has proven themselves difficult to work with, I believe with pressure from inside the company it's likely they'll get approval.

Now, all Sakurai and his team need to do is work alongside Disney to faithfully represent Sora. The question here is whether Disney will give Sakurai the artistic liberty required for him to work, and I'd say that it's 75:25. I could see it going down like how Toei and Shueishi worked alongside Arc System Works for Fighterz where they only made incredibly minor changes, and I trust that if anyone can represent Sora accurately, it's Sakurai; guy's the king of accurate character representation.

Overall, I would give Sora 50/50 chances depending on whether or not Disney can play nice with Nintendo. I would say he's more likely than people think, but I acknowledge that negotiations with him could be difficult enough to consider pursuing another option. However, Sora checks off both boxes (Kingdom Hearts is both an iconic and historic crossover) and his popularity would generate a large amount of sales and press for Smash Bros.

Spoiler: Geno

What's this? tehponycorn arguing for Geno instead of against him? Surely that's impossible! Well, it is, my reputation as a supposed "Geno basher" be damned. This one goes out to my girl Luigi The President - never stop dreaming

Let's start with the most prominent point in Geno's favor: the Sakurai Interview. We all know the one.

To tell the truth, it’s because I wanted Geno to be a playable character. He has a gun for a hand, and I think he fits in really well with Smash. During Brawl, I thought it would be great if I could add him, but in the end it didn’t become a reality...He’s very popular. When talking about older characters, Geno always gets a lot of requests.

Even the interviewer acknowledges Geno's popularity, saying

Geno is also popular with our readers as well.

So, we have a direct statement from Sakurai saying that he wanted Geno in the game for Brawl and Sm4sh, and acknowledgement of his popularity. This is hands down the best point in his favor. Geno, similar to the other two members of the Holy Trinity composed of himself, Ridley, and King K. Rool—the latter two of which were newcomers for Ultimate—has managed to remain a popular speculation pick within the Smash Bros. community since Brawl, and consistently ranks high within fan polls across the core fanbase (the fan polls linked came from Twitter, Reddit, 4chan's /v/, and SourceGaming among other sources). His Mii Costume also got it's own splash screen, making it notable as no other Mii Costumes got that level of preferential treatment, and Spirits of him and Mallow are the only Square Enix spirits to appear besides Cloud, meaning that someone is pushing for his inclusion, or at least acknowledgement, in Smash Bros.

The game he's from, Super Mario RPG for the SNES, isn't a slouch in terms of notoriety. For one, it's revered to this day as a classic SNES RPG alongside Crono Trigger and Final Fantasy 6, and sold 2.14 million copies in it's original run, with rereleases on the Wii and Wii U virtual console and most recently a rerelease on the SNES classic, which has sold over 5 million units (as of March 2018).

Another argument in favor of Geno is how simple it would be to acquire the rights to him. Compared to the messes that are Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, and even Final Fantasy with it's music, all Nintendo would need to do is get the rights for Geno and Super Mario RPG content. The main composer for the game, Yoko Shimomura, is already onboard for Smash Ultimate, facilitating negotiations for music and introducing the possibilities of remixes and making for an easy process to acquire Geno and include him in Smash Bros. Geno would also represent the culmination Nintendo and Square Enix's first golden age, which is incredibly fitting seeing as they're currently entering their second one.

All that being said, there are valid counterarguments for each of the above points.

Geno's popularity cannot be denied due to Sakurai and the Nintendo Dream Interviewer's direct acknowledgement of it. If Sakurai has wanted Geno in since Brawl, however, then why hasn't he been added? Pac-Man, Villager, and Miis, all previously considered characters for Brawl similar to Geno, made the jump to playable status in Smash 4, and even Ridley, a character that Sakurai famously denied, made the jump in Smash Ultimate. So then why hasn't Geno, a character that's been seriously considered for the last two entries, made a similar jump? The most common theory currently is that Square Enix refuses to give Sakurai and co. the license to use Geno as a playable character; why add Geno when another, more relevant character could be added to promote a current series for Square Enix? Remember, Square Enix is all about cross-promotion in their crossover deals, and Geno hasn't had a game release in 20 years.

However, Square Enix did give Sakurai and co. the rights to make a mii costume and include Spirits of the characters in Smash Ultimate, so they're not completely opposed to the prospect of Geno in Smash. I imagine that negotiating for a mii costume and literal .png files is much easier than negotiating for a playable character though. The argument of "would Square Enix grant Nintendo the rights to Geno" is one that is difficult to answer because both sides are valid. It would be incredibly easy to get Geno in Smash Bros. compared to other Square Enix characters, making his inclusion the one with the least risk.

While Geno always performs well in fan polls, fan polls, by nature, are susceptible to Voluntary Response Bias, which skews statistical data when the sample size is composed of self-selected volunteers. People who participate in polls conducted by the core fanbase are more likely to vote for characters widely supported by the core fanbase, i.e. Geno. This is further evidenced by the Ultimate Reddit poll, wherein Sora and Phoenix Wright, two nonstandard picks for the core fanbase, performed very well due to the high number of brigaders for those characters. Within that same fan poll, it was stated that most of Geno's support came from the United States, showing that he isn't nearly as popular abroad as he is here. While fan polls are a great general indicator of the fanbase's wishes, they can't be relied on for hard evidence due to the bias present in them by nature. I would say that given the larger size of the Ultimate Reddit poll, it can be trusted relatively well, but it still doesn't account for the large, silent, casual fanbase, who are equally as valid as the core fanbase. While the core fanbase would be ecstatic about Geno, the casual fanbase would likely not know who he is given the low sales of his game compared to Square Enix's other series (while he did appear on the SNES Classic, it's worth noting that many purchases of the SNES Classic was marketed towards those looking to re-experience the classic SNES games of their youth, and therefore many purchases of the SNES Classic were from people who likely already knew about Geno or bought the console for another game unrelated to him). From this, while Geno's inclusion has the least risk, it also likely has the least reward.

Finally, as a miscellaneous point, multiple other Mii characters got splash screens, such as Abraham Lincoln, Elijah Wood, and Ice T alongside members of the J-Pop idol group AKB48. I also swear that Nikki from Swapnote got her own little trailer as a Mii Fighter, but was unable to find any proof of such. This may be tangental to the prominence of the splash screen for Geno's costume seeing that it's a character costume and not just a mii alongside the fact that Geno is a third party character, but I still believe it's a point worth mentioning that Geno could've just been a marketable face similar to the former characters.

Overall, I give Geno a 50/50 chance depending on whether or not Square Enix and Nintendo want to go the easy route. I personally doubt that they would, but I understand that there's a case to be made for them doing so. Despite my own biases, I acknowledge that both sides have equal weight, and Geno is truly a tossup at this point; he's historic, but it's kind of reach, and he's not iconic, but could maybe have the extenuating circumstances required to make up for that. It's truly difficult to tell.

Spoiler: Final Fantasy Character

I'm condensing every possible Final Fantasy fighter into one for the sake of my own sanity, as there are so many possible fighters here. So, I'm going to be arguing for the series' merits and then listing some characters I believe could be our second Final Fantasy rep if we get one.

Final Fantasy is Square Enix's flagship franchise, selling over 144 million units as of March 2018. That's a little under double that of Dragon Quest, Square Enix's next best selling series. This also shows in the promotion that the series receives, such as the aforementioned Noctis in Tekken, Assassin's Creed in Final Fantasy XV, and Behemoth in Tekken (see Background - Why a Square Enix Character?) alongside, you know, . Sakurai even acknowledged this within the Nintendo Dream Interview by calling it

one of the few uniquely Japanese game series revered by players around the world.

So, it would be a safe pick for Square Enix to go for another Square Enix series, given the long history the series has with Nintendo and the many iconic characters within the series. However, with that many characters, who would they choose next? I have four ideas:

Bartz Klauser
Protagonist of Final Fantasy V for the SNES, mentioned within the same interview as Cloud by Sakurai, who remarked that a moveset about switching jobs could be "interesting." Sakurai has previously dropped things within interviews that were prominent, such as how Castlevania impacted him similar to the Legend of Zelda and how excited he was to play Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow prior to Simon's reveal.

Onion Knight
Mentioned within the same interview as Bartz, but isn't as likely given that it was Japan-exclusive until 2006.

Terra Branford
A little bit of personal speculation on my part, but given how Final Fantasy 6 is often held as one of the best JRPGs of all time and is prominently on Nintendo console, it would make sense for her to be our second Final Fantasy pick.

Sephiroth
Final Fantasy 7 is already on the table given Cloud's inclusion, so it'd be relatively easy to secure the character rights for him. Sephiroth is one of the most iconic villains in all of gaming history, and anyone who knows about Cloud will know about his age old rival Sephiroth.

Despite it being Square Enix's flagship franchise and having a bevy of characters to choose from, there are barriers to inclusion for a Final Fantasy character. For one, the way that licensing for Final Fantasy is handled scatters the rights to music and different components among the creators of those works. This leads to what could be costly licensing fees for Nintendo, to the point where it's simply not worth to negotiate for music. Additionally, no precedent for a series having two unique characters exists. While this is nothing but a fan rule that could easily be shattered, it's still worth noting, especially when both Bayonetta and Joker—both owned by Sega—got in over another Sonic character.

While I certainly wouldn't discount the inclusion of another Final Fantasy character, I also wouldn't see it as the most likely scenario.

Spoiler: Lara Croft

Tomb Raider is Square Enix's third best selling series, selling 60 million units as of March 2018 and defining the action adventure genre later refined by series such as Uncharted. Tomb Raider is also notable due to its status as a cultural phenomenon, as its spawned three movies, multiple soundtracks, a TV series, and multiple comic series and novelizations over the years. The only other Square Enix series to come close to this is Dragon Quest, and even then it lacks the worldwide appeal that Tomb Raider does. Lara Croft is an iconic character, and you'd be hard pressed to find a top 10 women in video games list without her, with her even winning the world record for "most successful female video game character" within the 2010 Guinness Book of World Records. This was before the series' remake, mind you, meaning that she and her series have only become more successful since then.

There are a couple of barriers for Laura's inclusion, however. For one, she's more associated with Playstation and Xbox than Nintendo. While we do have characters more known for appearances on Playstation systems, being Snake, Cloud, and Joker, each of them have some sort of circumstance behind that, with Snake largely being a favor for a friend, and Cloud and Joker representing Final Fantasy and Shin Megami Tensei, two series with historic ties to Nintendo. Lara Croft lacks either of these circumstances, which is significant. Furthermore, she uses realistic weaponry, such as her signature dual pistols, for most of her attacks, and it is unknown whether this could translate into to Smash similar to Snake or Bayonetta, both of whom were toned down in that regard. Finally, she's a British developed character, which subjects her to the stigma against Western character which seems to be present within the series, with Diddy Kong, King K. Rool, and Dark Samus being the only character created outside of Japan.


While Lara Croft as the Square Enix character is worth being discussed, I would say that she's the dark horse pick of the bunch and is overall unlikely. Keep her in mind though.

Spoiler: Gex

YOU THOUGHT I WAS SERIOUSLY GOING TO ARGUE FOR GEX?!

Joking aside, Gex has appeared on Nintendo consoles before, and his three games have sold a total of 15 million units worldwide, which is nothing to laugh at. I'd say it's more possible than you'd think, but still very unlikely.

Spoiler: Misc.

I acknowledge that the Square Enix character could be someone not previously argued for. So, I'm going to be doing small arguments for other character I believe could be the Square Enix rep, but wouldn't necessarily hold out hopes for.
Crono
Crono almost got his own section, but in the end I couldn't justify that as much as I could justify using him to start this section. Similar to Terra and Final Fantasy 6, Chrono Trigger appears on many, if not every list of the greatest JRPGs of all time. However, he's in a similar place as Geno wherein he hasn't had a recent game in his series for around 20 years, but doesn't have the vocal fanbase to keep him going.

Neku Sakuraba
The World Ends With You is a critically acclaimed cult classic (that's a tongue-twister) that's appeared on the Nintendo DS and iOS/Android alongside the Nintendo Switch. That said, it's only a cult classic and has failed to establish itself as a series. I would say he has good chances as a predominantly Nintendo character, but compared to other, larger Square Enix picks he fails to compare.

Agnès Oblige
Another Square Enix character predominantly on Nintendo systems, Bravely Default 1 & 2 were critically acclaimed JRPGs on the 3DS. However, with a third entry in the series for Nintendo Switch unconfirmed, she lacks the relevance required to make her a notable pick for DLC.

2B
While 2B is a popular Square Enix character and has even made an appearance in Soul Calibur 6 as a playable character, she's never appeared on a Nintendo console and is therefore ineligible for Smash Bros. Sorry NineS .

Spoiler: Wrap-Up: My Thoughts

If I had to bet on which Square Enix character I think will get in, I'd put all my money on Dragon Quest. Every factor seems to line up in the series' favor, and the most notable counterarguments are made up for and can't really be used against it. If I had to make a chart for it, it would go like this:

Dragon Quest >> Final Fantasy Character > Lara Croft > Geno = Sora = Crono > Neku > Anyone else

While speculation about the Square Enix representative was initially exciting, I've quickly found it to become tiring and monotonous, as speculation continues to circle around the same rehashed topics and every time we get a new piece of information we end up right where we started in terms of what we know. Hopefully this piece clears up some misconceptions and offers some closure to the circuitous arguments that the fanbase has found itself mired in. At this point I would suggest that everyone just sit back and relax, for it seems like similar to Mr. Bone, Mr. Square Enix's wild ride won't be ending anytime soon.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

Here's the post I've been working on and teasing for the past two days. Let me introduce you to:

THE ULTIMATE heh SQUARE ENIX CHARACTER ARGUMENT​

I'm on a month long break, and to keep my brain from rotting out of my head I've decided to write a series of in-depth speculation posts about current popular Smash Bros. Ultimate Speculation and topics that personally interest me within it. The idea of a Square Enix character has been prevalent in this speculation cycle since at least October, and has recently hit a climax with seemingly everyone and their mom having a source and going after information about the elusive Square Enix character. While I've argued with many about Sora, Geno, and Dragon Quest, I wanted to take an in-depth look into every potential Square Enix pick and argue the pros and cons of their inclusion, which led to this. This is a long post—likely the longest I've written and will ever write—clocking in at over 6,000 words. So buckle up, and I hope you enjoy the ride!

Spoiler: Background - On third parties

While Sakurai has commented on third parties in the past, he's been quite vague, only saying that the characters must appear on Nintendo consoles, both companies must want them and Sakurai must have some artistic license, the character must carry history with them, and (more recently) implying that third parties must have worldwide popularity

Based off of this, I'm going to argue that a third party representative must be at least one of two things: historic and iconic

So, let's take a brief look at our current third parties and how they fit this criteria (echoes are considered with their original counterpart):
Snake: Metal Gear Solid had it's starts on old-computer systems and even had an NES port, and was launched into fame thanks to the well-known Metal Gear Solid franchise headed by Hideo Kojima. Granted, Snake's inclusion was a favor to a friend, but the fact still stands that Snake falls under both criteria.
Sonic: The mascot of Sega himself once went toe-to-toe with Mario and Nintendo in one of the most iconic showdowns in gaming history, and even now that Sega's a third party Sonic is still one of the larger video game series despite it's mis-steps. He more than checks off both criteria.
Megaman: Up until Megaman 7 and Megaman X4 the Megaman series was exclusive to Nintendo, making Megaman a hallmark of early Nintendo, and he even appeared as a main character on the 1980s NES-centered cartoon Captain N. The series remained active from the NES era up until the 7th generation (Wii U, PS4, Xbox One) in one way or another before teetering off, but the series has recently been rebooted with Megaman 11 and a new Megaman X game likely in the works. He handily stands under both criteria.
Pac-Man: Dude's an arcade legend. Mostly everyone knows who Pac-Man is, or has played it in some way shape or form. He speaks for himself, 'nuff said.
Ryu: Another arcade legend, but Ryu also made a notable jump into the console market and has remained on top of the Fighting Game Genre since then. He checks off both boxes.
Cloud: Final Fantasy is undoubtedly the most popular JRPG series, and until the Nintendo 64 was synonymous with Nintendo. Final Fantasy VII is one of the most popular games of all time, and represents a moment in gaming history when Square Enix gave Nintendo a big old middle finger and moved over to Playstation. An odd piece of history to represent, but historic and iconic nonetheless.
Bayonetta: I'll admit this is a bit of an odd one to argue given that Bayonetta as a series is much more recent than the other third parties and much less popular. That being said, I'll still argue that she's iconic. The original Bayonetta was a cult classic, and when a sequel couldn't be funded, Nintendo swooped in and paid for it themselves, and she represents this weird moment in Nintendo history when Nintendo funded an M rated series for the failing Wii U. Since then, Bayonetta has (oddly enough) become synonymous with Nintendo in the modern era, making her a natural inclusion
Simon Belmont: Similar to Megaman or Final Fantasy, Castlevania is synonymous with classic Nintendo, and Simon Belmont also appeared on Captain N as a main character. The Castlevania franchise was active and renowned up until Konami canned it towards the end of the 7th generation, even spawning it's own genre of games, the Metroidvania, in it and Metroid's styles. He definitely checks off both criteria
Joker: I'm still in shock that they added him. I never thought it would happen, but it did. Persona 5 marks a distinct shift in both the series and the JRPG genre towards worldwide popularity, selling 2 million copies as of December 1st 2017 making it the highest selling Persona 5. Persona 5 also was a game of the year contender alongside Breath of the Wild and won best RPG at the Game Awards. Joker doesn't just represent Persona 5 though, he also represents Shin Megami Tensei, an iconic series with a long history of Nintendo exclusives, according to the press release for his inclusion in Smash Bros:

In doing so, he checks off both criteria with his inclusion.

So, all of our third parties but 1 are historic and iconic, with the 1 left being iconic but also having special circumstances. This is important to consider.

Spoiler: Background - Why a Square Enix Character?

For one, a Square Enix character in Smash Ultimate has to be one of, if not the worst kept secret in Nintendo history. We've known about this since at least October, and the rumblings of it began as early as March when the game was first teased. While many believe that leakers have been "BTFO" with the advent of no one knowing about Joker or his impending reveal at The Game Awards, too many people have heard about this for it NOT to happen at this point. Unless Nintendo and Square Enix are playing 5 Dimensional Chess and spreading misinformation about there being a Square Enix character for ****s and giggles, we're getting one, and the misinformation is to mask who it is. Of course, we have that supposed list of 7 characters and accounts of who made it to negotiations and who didn't, but seeing as Nintendo have shown themselves capable of spreading convincing misinformation (Every insider claimed we were getting Metroid Prime and no Smash at The Game Awards only for us to get Joker) I would throw everything we know about the Square Enix character out of the window. For the sake of this post, I'll be doing just that, and I'll be arguing why we should ALL do that in my next speculation piece.

Even if the leaks are fake, I believe there's reason to believe that we're getting a Square Enix character. For one, Square Enix has been oddly liberal with their IPs as of late, adding Noctis (Final Fantasy XV) into Tekken, Behemoth (Final Fantasy) in Monster Hunter, Assassin's Creed with Final Fantasy XV, and 2B (Nier: Automata) into Soul Calibur 6. When discussing how Noctis got into Tekken, it was stated that it was due to the relationship between Tekken producer Katsuhiro Harada and Final Fantasy XV director Hajime Tabata, showing that all it takes is some good blood to get the ball rolling. Fortunately, not only is Sakurai friends with Tetsuya Normura, but Square Enix seems to be in a second golden age with Nintendo, with Octopath Traveler performing better than expected. Prior to its release, Square Enix said that if Octopath Traveler was successful, they would focus on the Switch as a console; staying true to their word Square Enix telling those present at an earnings conference to expect more games like Octopath Traveler and creating a division to specifically focus on making Switch games. Square Enix has every reason to go to Nintendo and get a character of their's in Nintendo; it's win-win, they get exposure for one of their series, and Nintendo gets massive press for Smash Bros.

So then the question becomes: which one?

Spoiler: Erdrick/Dragon Quest Character

This is what inspired me to write this post, given that people have argued for Sora, Geno, and other roster picks citing all of these articles but never Erdrick or another Dragon Quest character. You can thank me later Calane

Anyways, let's begin with a history lesson. Dragon Quest is the grandfather of the entire RPG genre, with the first game in the series releasing on the NES an entire year and a half before the first Final Fantasy game. It is Square Enix's 2nd best selling series, sitting at 75 million units sold as of a year ago between its main titles and spin-offs, and has a long history with Nintendo, with every main entry in the series being playable on Nintendo consoles (only 2 of 11 main series games weren't on Nintendo consoles initially, being 7 and 8, though they later received 3DS remakes). Nintendo even published Dragon Quest I, VI, VII, VIII, and IX within Western countries. IX is notable as it was a third-party DS game published by Nintendo, something only done for Dragon Quest and Level-5 games in the DS era. Mario and co. have also crossed over with the Dragon Quest bunch multiple times in the Fortune Street series, creating a precedent for a crossover between Nintendo and Dragon Quest. More recently, Dragon Quest XI was one of the first games revealed for the Nintendo Switch, then called the Nintendo NX, and more recently has been announced to be an upgraded version named Dragon Quest XI S (appearing at this year's Jump Festa), which will include voice acting among other new features. Needless to say, the ties between Nintendo and Dragon Quest are VERY strong.

Additionally Dragon Quest's is a cultural phenomenon in Japan. This game series is so large that it's spawned an urban myth on the level of "the average human eats 8 spiders in their sleep per year" about there being a law that Dragon Quest games had to be released on weekends, or that when Dragon Quest games released it was akin to a national holiday. While there is a Dragon Quest Day, it's an unofficial holiday, and in reality, 300 kids were arrested for truancy when Dragon Quest III released and muggings of Dragon Quest games became so widespread that there were hearings about in the Japanese parliament, leading the developers to feel bad about creating a nationwide issue and moving the game's release dates to the weekend. The series is large enough to be a common conversation topic in Japan, and is considered by many within the Japanese gaming industry to be Japan's national game. I **** you not, this series is so big that it caused the entire staff of the HiatusxHiatus HunterxHunter anime to go on hiatus JUST TO PLAY DRAGON QUEST, the series has a world record in the Guinness Book of World Records for being the first game to inspire a ballet, and has an amusement park attraction at Universal Studios Japan (where Nintendo will be soon), that's is how big this series is.

Due to Dragon Quest's Japanese popularity, Sakurai talks about it quite a bit. In the Sakurai x Normura Interview Sakurai mentions game designer Yosuke Saito (who worked on Dragon Quest X) on "a list of game designers born in 1970, [where] there's quite a few big names" alongside Hideki Kamiya, Yoko Taro, and John Carmack, and participated in a roundtable discussion with series creator Yuji Horii and Junichi Masuda of Pokémon fame where they discussed Dragon Quest XI. He's notably advocated for the series twice, first in 2011 when he stood up for Dragon Quest X and expressed that he looks forward to it, and plays Devil's Advocate for the series' difficulty, also directly acknowledging the series' popularity in the process, and went far as finding a workaround to play Dragon Quest Heroes among other games while recovering from his arm injury.. Sakurai also notably lists Dragon Quest III alongside Megaman, Final Fantasy, and Ocarina of Time among others when talking about anniversaries, and COMPARES KIRBY (you know, that one character that HE CREATED AND TREATS LIKE HIS CHILD) TO THE MAIN CHARACTER OF A DRAGON QUEST GAME. Needless to say, Dragon Quest is on Sakurai's radar.

Now, to address the common counterarguments:
The first is the series' western popularity. While the series is certainly historic, and is amazingly popular in Japan, it largely lacks a presence in the West, with 3 million+ out of 4 million copies (more than 75%) of Dragon Quest XI being sold in Japan instead of the West. It's no small secret that Square Enix has been fighting a decades long battle (sometimes alongside Nintendo) to make Dragon Quest popular in the West, and it seems like they're stacking the deck to make Dragon Quest XI the game that breaks through. I believe that Square Enix would be willing to make a gamble on the inclusion of a Dragon Quest character in Smash Bros. in an attempt to boost the series' western popularity. We've seen a good amount people interested in playing Persona with the inclusion of Joker, and "the Smash effect" could similarly boost Dragon Quest's western sales in the future.

Second, the licensing. Many people cite Dragon Quest as a "licensing nightmare" in an attempt to discredit the series' inclusion, but it's not as complicated as you'd think. Dragon Quest as a whole is between four parties: Square Enix (Development, IP ownership), Armor Project (game design), Bird Studio (character design), and Koichi Sugiyama (music). Of those four, two are no problem to deal with, being Square Enix and Armor Project, run by series' director Yuji Horii, both of whom have benefitted from positive relations with Nintendo and would no doubt like to have a Dragon Quest character in Smash to boost the series' Western popularity. That leaves Bird Studio, run by Akira Toriyama, and Koichi Sugiyama as the wildcards in rights negotiation for Dragon Quest content. However, I'm willing to believe that both will cooperate. For one, Akira Toriyama worked closely alongside Arc System Works and Namco Bandai to design Android 21, an original character, for Dragon Ball Fighterz. Namco's involvement in this scenario is notable, as they're also developer Smash Bros. Ultimate, and using their connections developing the Dragon Ball games, could bring Toriyama to the negotiating table if he isn't already there. Additionally, in developing at least Fighterz, the developers worked alongside Toei Animation and Shueisha instead of Toriyama, who made slight changes to the game to fit with the Dragon Ball IP, which could be taken as Toriyama taking a back seat when it comes to adaptations of his work. Given how many Dragon Ball games have been made, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case Goku, his star character, has been licensed out on a couple of occasions to Fuji TV and is the ambassador of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games, which leaves me with little doubt he'd be willing to work with Nintendo on a Dragon Quest character for Smash Bros (one of the largest crossovers ever) and grant Sakurai the proper artistic license to make a Dragon Quest character a reasonable inclusion. As for Sugiyama? The use of midi music files has been suggested multiple times and could be a viable way to get Dragon Quest into Smash Bros. if needed. If Nintendo and Sakurai decide to go the orchestral route they might run into trouble due to either money or Sugiyama's seeming unwillingness to let us worldwide players have orchestral music (this is overblown, however, as Dragon Quest XI had a midi soundtrack worldwide instead of just in the West), which is the only problem I could viably see happening. However, Nintendo has dealt with this before and will do it again if negotiations go right, at worst we just end up with midis instead of orchestral music and remixes. As for the controversy surrounding Sugiyama, that's a nonissue, given that Square Enix has made a statement about it saying that it doesn't speak to company policy and are moving ahead with Dragon Quest anyways.

If Square Enix has the chance to push Dragon Quest, I could easily see them doing so. I see a Dragon Quest character as one of, if not the likeliest Square Enix character given that everything seems to line up for it. Dragon Quest is the most historic choice, and while not iconic worldwide, has the proper circumstances surrounding it to make up for that fact and justify it's inclusion in Smash.

Spoiler: Sora

Surprise surprise, one of the top Sora supporters here is going to post a lengthy argument for him. While many have counted him out time and time again, there is a solid case to be made for Sora. As mentioned before, I'm not going to address insider information as I believe it should be thrown out the window (I'll elaborate on this in another mini-essay).

Kingdom Hearts is one of Square Enix's more notable series, selling 24 million units worldwide as of November 2017 making it Square Enix's fourth best selling series. While this may initially seem unimpressive, this is across only 15 titles (2 of which were remakes and 5 of which were collections of previous games). Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and Tomb Raider, Square Enix's top 3 best selling series, clock in at 54 titles, 29 titles, and 30 titles respectively. For Kingdom Hearts to accomplish that much in such a little amount is impressive. The series is a collaboration between Disney and Square Enix and uses both the Disney and Final Fantasy IPs alongside original characters, such as Sora. By sole merit of possessing Disney content a majority of people will know at least something about Kingdom Hearts. The series is also known for Kingdom Hearts 3, which at one point stood alongside games such as Duke Nukem Forever and Half-Life 3 as a game in a popular series trapped in development hell and became a meme within the gaming community because of this; Kingdom Hearts 3 has been teased since 2005, and ever since it's official announcement it's consistently placed within Japanese Gaming Magazine Famitsu's Weekly Most Wanted Games poll, showing Japanese popularity. On the Western front, Kingdom Hearts 3 won 16 awards out 29 nominations at E3 2018, which I believe is a good sign of Western popularity.

Stemming from Kingdom Heart's popularity, demand for Sora in Smash Bros. exists, and it's a lot larger than some would expect. Going back to the Smash Ballot era, the entire Kingdom Hearts community rallied behind Sora, with prominent Kingdom Hearts youtubers HMK and TheGamersJoint (at 36,000 and 59,000 subscribers respectively at the time) both making videos telling their fans to vote for Sora in the ballot. More recently, fans have been more vocal about their wants, with the king of Sm4sh, Zero, voicing his support for Sora and HMK telling a Disney executive to his face that the fans want Sora in Smash alongside reasons for his inclusion. Sora ranked number 1 on an Italian Smash Bros. Fighter Poll, number 5 for large Japanese magazine Inside's most anticipated Smash Bros. character, and number 5 on the Reddit Smash Ultimate Poll with 12,485 votes. Further evidence for an impressive ballot performance for Sora comes from the fact that in the Reddit Ultimate Poll: "The character with the most brigaders (was) Sora (more than half his voters came from non-reddit referrers). This shows that Kingdom Hearts fans care enough about Sora in Smash to vote on a large, unofficial Reddit poll, which would certainly translate to an official Nintendo ballot. Support for Sora even exists within Square Enix, as evidenced by this deleted tweet from series producer and Square Enix executive Shinji Hashimoto. Needless to say, there's a lot of people who want to see Sora in Smash Bros.

As a character, Sora is in an interesting place. While Sora is owned by Disney for all legal purposes, Disney and Square Enix have a gentlemen's agreement between them where Disney has to approach series director Tetsuya Normura and Square Enix to use him in any sort of marketing (source). This gentlemen's agreement is highly important, as evidenced by the canceled 2002 Kingdom Hearts cartoon series—which was canceled "so as to not jeopardize the relationship between Square Enix & Disney as they began to expand the franchise"—and more recently, the canceled Disney Kingdom Hearts game which is speculated to have been canceled due to Square Enix's disapproval. According to Disney of Japan executive Justin Scarpone, the process for negotiating Sora in Smash would go as such:

• Nintendo approaches Disney for negotiations
• Assuming fan demand exists, approval from Normura and Square Enix would be required
• Disney would then work alongside Nintendo to represent Sora accurately.

Let's go through this process bit by bit and look at some of the moving parts here.

To begin, Nintendo needs to convince Disney. This is where the most error can occur, and where the most variability in speculation exists. On one hand, you have users who have worked with Disney or know people who have worked with Disney such as NonSpecificGuy and PlayerOneTyler who express how difficult it is to work with Disney legal for even minor things, but you also have the claim from Scarpone that Disney "isn't restrictive, but particular," examples of Disney cross-promotion in video games, such as:

• Thanos in Fortnite in a time-exclusive game mode (one which seems to be making a return soon)
• Most recently, Wreck-It-Ralph in Fortnite
• Wreck-It-Ralph in Sonic and Sega All-Stars racing

and factors hinting that Disney may not be as soulless as some imagine them to be, such as Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3's exclusivity to Nintendo Switch (when it could make more money being multiplatform) and Normura being the one who decided to not make a Disney fighting game and not Disney. Additionally, Nintendo and Disney seem to be on good terms given the aforementioned exclusivity of Ultimate Alliance 3, the game show that the two made together about the Nintendo Switch, and the fact that Disney XD has streamed events such as the Sm4sh Wii U finals at EVO 2017 and if I recall correctly, the Invitational tournaments. Disney and Nintendo go way back past this, as far as the pre-NES era, and interestingly enough, Nintendo has also published games with Disney characters such as Epic Mickey (in Japan) and Disney's Magical Mirror Starring Mickey Mouse, which makes Disney similar to Dragon Quest in that regard. Overall, negotiations with Disney is a coinflip, but I believe that it's possible, especially if Nintendo and Disney work out a deal outside of Smash (similar to how Ralph ended up in Sega All-Stars racing due to Sonic being in Wreck-It-Ralph).

We've established that fan demand for Sora exists. Getting Normura's approval would be easy given Sakurai's positive relationship with Normura (he even praised Normura and his team for Kingdom Heart's 15th anniversary and expressed that he was a fan of the series), and extending to Square Enix Hashimoto's support of Sora bodes well for Nintendo getting general approval for Sora. While Square Enix has proven themselves difficult to work with, I believe with pressure from inside the company it's likely they'll get approval.

Now, all Sakurai and his team need to do is work alongside Disney to faithfully represent Sora. The question here is whether Disney will give Sakurai the artistic liberty required for him to work, and I'd say that it's 75:25. I could see it going down like how Toei and Shueishi worked alongside Arc System Works for Fighterz where they only made incredibly minor changes, and I trust that if anyone can represent Sora accurately, it's Sakurai; guy's the king of accurate character representation.

Overall, I would give Sora 50/50 chances depending on whether or not Disney can play nice with Nintendo. I would say he's more likely than people think, but I acknowledge that negotiations with him could be difficult enough to consider pursuing another option. However, Sora checks off both boxes (Kingdom Hearts is both an iconic and historic crossover) and his popularity would generate a large amount of sales and press for Smash Bros.

Spoiler: Geno

What's this? tehponycorn arguing for Geno instead of against him? Surely that's impossible! Well, it is, my reputation as a supposed "Geno basher" be damned. This one goes out to my girl Luigi The President - never stop dreaming

Let's start with the most prominent point in Geno's favor: the Sakurai Interview. We all know the one.

Even the interviewer acknowledges Geno's popularity, saying

So, we have a direct statement from Sakurai saying that he wanted Geno in the game for Brawl and Sm4sh, and acknowledgement of his popularity. This is hands down the best point in his favor. Geno, similar to the other two members of the Holy Trinity composed of himself, Ridley, and King K. Rool—the latter two of which were newcomers for Ultimate—has managed to remain a popular speculation pick within the Smash Bros. community since Brawl, and consistently ranks high within fan polls across the core fanbase (the fan polls linked came from Twitter, Reddit, 4chan's /v/, and SourceGaming among other sources). His Mii Costume also got it's own splash screen, making it notable as no other Mii Costumes got that level of preferential treatment, and Spirits of him and Mallow are the only Square Enix spirits to appear besides Cloud, meaning that someone is pushing for his inclusion, or at least acknowledgement, in Smash Bros.

The game he's from, Super Mario RPG for the SNES, isn't a slouch in terms of notoriety. For one, it's revered to this day as a classic SNES RPG alongside Crono Trigger and Final Fantasy 6, and sold 2.14 million copies in it's original run, with rereleases on the Wii and Wii U virtual console and most recently a rerelease on the SNES classic, which has sold over 5 million units (as of March 2018).

Another argument in favor of Geno is how simple it would be to acquire the rights to him. Compared to the messes that are Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, and even Final Fantasy with it's music, all Nintendo would need to do is get the rights for Geno and Super Mario RPG content. The main composer for the game, Yoko Shimomura, is already onboard for Smash Ultimate, facilitating negotiations for music and introducing the possibilities of remixes and making for an easy process to acquire Geno and include him in Smash Bros. Geno would also represent the culmination Nintendo and Square Enix's first golden age, which is incredibly fitting seeing as they're currently entering their second one.

All that being said, there are valid counterarguments for each of the above points.

Geno's popularity cannot be denied due to Sakurai and the Nintendo Dream Interviewer's direct acknowledgement of it. If Sakurai has wanted Geno in since Brawl, however, then why hasn't he been added? Pac-Man, Villager, and Miis, all previously considered characters for Brawl similar to Geno, made the jump to playable status in Smash 4, and even Ridley, a character that Sakurai famously denied, made the jump in Smash Ultimate. So then why hasn't Geno, a character that's been seriously considered for the last two entries, made a similar jump? The most common theory currently is that Square Enix refuses to give Sakurai and co. the license to use Geno as a playable character; why add Geno when another, more relevant character could be added to promote a current series for Square Enix? Remember, Square Enix is all about cross-promotion in their crossover deals, and Geno hasn't had a game release in 20 years.

However, Square Enix did give Sakurai and co. the rights to make a mii costume and include Spirits of the characters in Smash Ultimate, so they're not completely opposed to the prospect of Geno in Smash. I imagine that negotiating for a mii costume and literal .png files is much easier than negotiating for a playable character though. The argument of "would Square Enix grant Nintendo the rights to Geno" is one that is difficult to answer because both sides are valid. It would be incredibly easy to get Geno in Smash Bros. compared to other Square Enix characters, making his inclusion the one with the least risk.

While Geno always performs well in fan polls, fan polls, by nature, are susceptible to Voluntary Response Bias, which skews statistical data when the sample size is composed of self-selected volunteers. People who participate in polls conducted by the core fanbase are more likely to vote for characters widely supported by the core fanbase, i.e. Geno. This is further evidenced by the Ultimate Reddit poll, wherein Sora and Phoenix Wright, two nonstandard picks for the core fanbase, performed very well due to the high number of brigaders for those characters. Within that same fan poll, it was stated that most of Geno's support came from the United States, showing that he isn't nearly as popular abroad as he is here. While fan polls are a great general indicator of the fanbase's wishes, they can't be relied on for hard evidence due to the bias present in them by nature. I would say that given the larger size of the Ultimate Reddit poll, it can be trusted relatively well, but it still doesn't account for the large, silent, casual fanbase, who are equally as valid as the core fanbase. While the core fanbase would be ecstatic about Geno, the casual fanbase would likely not know who he is given the low sales of his game compared to Square Enix's other series (while he did appear on the SNES Classic, it's worth noting that many purchases of the SNES Classic was marketed towards those looking to re-experience the classic SNES games of their youth, and therefore many purchases of the SNES Classic were from people who likely already knew about Geno or bought the console for another game unrelated to him). From this, while Geno's inclusion has the least risk, it also likely has the least reward.

Finally, as a miscellaneous point, multiple other Mii characters got splash screens, such as Abraham Lincoln, Elijah Wood, and Ice T alongside members of the J-Pop idol group AKB48. I also swear that Nikki from Swapnote got her own little trailer as a Mii Fighter, but was unable to find any proof of such. This may be tangental to the prominence of the splash screen for Geno's costume seeing that it's a character costume and not just a mii alongside the fact that Geno is a third party character, but I still believe it's a point worth mentioning that Geno could've just been a marketable face similar to the former characters.

Overall, I give Geno a 50/50 chance depending on whether or not Square Enix and Nintendo want to go the easy route. I personally doubt that they would, but I understand that there's a case to be made for them doing so. Despite my own biases, I acknowledge that both sides have equal weight, and Geno is truly a tossup at this point; he's historic, but it's kind of reach, and he's not iconic, but could maybe have the extenuating circumstances required to make up for that. It's truly difficult to tell.

Spoiler: Final Fantasy Character

I'm condensing every possible Final Fantasy fighter into one for the sake of my own sanity, as there are so many possible fighters here. So, I'm going to be arguing for the series' merits and then listing some characters I believe could be our second Final Fantasy rep if we get one.

Final Fantasy is Square Enix's flagship franchise, selling over 144 million units as of March 2018. That's a little under double that of Dragon Quest, Square Enix's next best selling series. This also shows in the promotion that the series receives, such as the aforementioned Noctis in Tekken, Assassin's Creed in Final Fantasy XV, and Behemoth in Tekken (see Background - Why a Square Enix Character?) alongside, you know, . Sakurai even acknowledged this within the Nintendo Dream Interview by calling it

So, it would be a safe pick for Square Enix to go for another Square Enix series, given the long history the series has with Nintendo and the many iconic characters within the series. However, with that many characters, who would they choose next? I have four ideas:

Bartz Klauser
Protagonist of Final Fantasy V for the SNES, mentioned within the same interview as Cloud by Sakurai, who remarked that a moveset about switching jobs could be "interesting." Sakurai has previously dropped things within interviews that were prominent, such as how Castlevania impacted him similar to the Legend of Zelda and how excited he was to play Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow prior to Simon's reveal.

Onion Knight
Mentioned within the same interview as Bartz, but isn't as likely given that it was Japan-exclusive until 2006.

Terra Branford
A little bit of personal speculation on my part, but given how Final Fantasy 6 is often held as one of the best JRPGs of all time and is prominently on Nintendo console, it would make sense for her to be our second Final Fantasy pick.

Sephiroth
Final Fantasy 7 is already on the table given Cloud's inclusion, so it'd be relatively easy to secure the character rights for him. Sephiroth is one of the most iconic villains in all of gaming history, and anyone who knows about Cloud will know about his age old rival Sephiroth.

Despite it being Square Enix's flagship franchise and having a bevy of characters to choose from, there are barriers to inclusion for a Final Fantasy character. For one, the way that licensing for Final Fantasy is handled scatters the rights to music and different components among the creators of those works. This leads to what could be costly licensing fees for Nintendo, to the point where it's simply not worth to negotiate for music. Additionally, no precedent for a series having two unique characters exists. While this is nothing but a fan rule that could easily be shattered, it's still worth noting, especially when both Bayonetta and Joker—both owned by Sega—got in over another Sonic character.

While I certainly wouldn't discount the inclusion of another Final Fantasy character, I also wouldn't see it as the most likely scenario.

Spoiler: Lara Croft

Tomb Raider is Square Enix's third best selling series, selling 60 million units as of March 2018 and defining the action adventure genre later refined by series such as Uncharted. Tomb Raider is also notable due to its status as a cultural phenomenon, as its spawned three movies, multiple soundtracks, a TV series, and multiple comic series and novelizations over the years. The only other Square Enix series to come close to this is Dragon Quest, and even then it lacks the worldwide appeal that Tomb Raider does. Lara Croft is an iconic character, and you'd be hard pressed to find a top 10 women in video games list without her, with her even winning the world record for "most successful female video game character" within the 2010 Guinness Book of World Records. This was before the series' remake, mind you, meaning that she and her series have only become more successful since then.

There are a couple of barriers for Laura's inclusion, however. For one, she's more associated with Playstation and Xbox than Nintendo. While we do have characters more known for appearances on Playstation systems, being Snake, Cloud, and Joker, each of them have some sort of circumstance behind that, with Snake largely being a favor for a friend, and Cloud and Joker representing Final Fantasy and Shin Megami Tensei, two series with historic ties to Nintendo. Lara Croft lacks either of these circumstances, which is significant. Furthermore, she uses realistic weaponry, such as her signature dual pistols, for most of her attacks, and it is unknown whether this could translate into to Smash similar to Snake or Bayonetta, both of whom were toned down in that regard. Finally, she's a British developed character, which subjects her to the stigma against Western character which seems to be present within the series, with Diddy Kong, King K. Rool, and Dark Samus being the only character created outside of Japan.


While Lara Croft as the Square Enix character is worth being discussed, I would say that she's the dark horse pick of the bunch and is overall unlikely. Keep her in mind though.

Spoiler: Gex

YOU THOUGHT I WAS SERIOUSLY GOING TO ARGUE FOR GEX?!

Joking aside, Gex has appeared on Nintendo consoles before, and his three games have sold a total of 15 million units worldwide, which is nothing to laugh at. I'd say it's more possible than you'd think, but still very unlikely.

Spoiler: Misc.

I acknowledge that the Square Enix character could be someone not previously argued for. So, I'm going to be doing small arguments for other character I believe could be the Square Enix rep, but wouldn't necessarily hold out hopes for.
Crono
Crono almost got his own section, but in the end I couldn't justify that as much as I could justify using him to start this section. Similar to Terra and Final Fantasy 6, Chrono Trigger appears on many, if not every list of the greatest JRPGs of all time. However, he's in a similar place as Geno wherein he hasn't had a recent game in his series for around 20 years, but doesn't have the vocal fanbase to keep him going.

Neku Sakuraba
The World Ends With You is a critically acclaimed cult classic (that's a tongue-twister) that's appeared on the Nintendo DS and iOS/Android alongside the Nintendo Switch. That said, it's only a cult classic and has failed to establish itself as a series. I would say he has good chances as a predominantly Nintendo character, but compared to other, larger Square Enix picks he fails to compare.

Agnès Oblige
Another Square Enix character predominantly on Nintendo systems, Bravely Default 1 & 2 were critically acclaimed JRPGs on the 3DS. However, with a third entry in the series for Nintendo Switch unconfirmed, she lacks the relevance required to make her a notable pick for DLC.

2B
While 2B is a popular Square Enix character and has even made an appearance in Soul Calibur 6 as a playable character, she's never appeared on a Nintendo console and is therefore ineligible for Smash Bros. Sorry NineS .

Spoiler: Wrap-Up: My Thoughts

If I had to bet on which Square Enix character I think will get in, I'd put all my money on Dragon Quest. Every factor seems to line up in the series' favor, and the most notable counterarguments are made up for and can't really be used against it. If I had to make a chart for it, it would go like this:

Dragon Quest >> Final Fantasy Character > Lara Croft > Geno = Sora = Crono > Neku > Anyone else

While speculation about the Square Enix representative was initially exciting, I've quickly found it to become tiring and monotonous, as speculation continues to circle around the same rehashed topics and every time we get a new piece of information we end up right where we started in terms of what we know. Hopefully this piece clears up some misconceptions and offers some closure to the circuitous arguments that the fanbase has found itself mired in. At this point I would suggest that everyone just sit back and relax, for it seems like similar to Mr. Bone, Mr. Square Enix's wild ride won't be ending anytime soon.

Please do yourself a favor and just never bring up Geno again. I get that you wanted to be fair, and perhaps you may not intend to bash Geno, but you are simply unable to write about him in an unbiased manner, from the dozens of post's I've seen. Seriously: Lara Croft is more likely in your eyes? Lara Croft? Yeah; no. Lara would fit fine in Smash; but that's just not happening. Especially with her reboot series under performing across the board. I honestly would have rather not seen you address Geno than give such a slanted statement.

 

[Nekoo]

Please do yourself a favor and just never bring up Geno again. I get that you wanted to be fair, and perhaps you may not intend to bash Geno, but you are simply unable to write about him in an unbiased manner, from the dozens of post's I've seen. Seriously: Lara Croft is more likely in your eyes? Lara Croft? Yeah; no. Lara would fit fine in Smash; but that's just not happening. Especially with her reboot series under performing across the board. I honestly would have rather not seen you address Geno than give such a slanted statement.

I know I shouldn't answer obvious bait or troll but...

It's the pot calling the kettle black !

 

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

Please do yourself a favor and just never bring up Geno again. I get that you wanted to be fair, and perhaps you may not intend to bash Geno, but you are simply unable to write about him in an unbiased manner, from the dozens of post's I've seen. Seriously: Lara Croft is more likely in your eyes? Lara Croft? Yeah; no. Lara would fit fine in Smash; but that's just not happening. Especially with her reboot series under performing across the board. I honestly would have rather not seen you address Geno than give such a slanted statement.

Yet, it’s okay for you to come bash DQ every chance you get whenever you come to this thread, but yet you want someone to not give their opinion on Geno, even if it’s negative?! Hmm...interesting. How about you try not to do the same thing chief!

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

I know I shouldn't answer obvious bait or troll but...

It's the pot calling the kettle black !

....This isn't bait? Bait would be produced if I didn't genuinely care about the subject being spoken about.

 

[Nekoo]

....This isn't bait? Bait would be produced if I didn't genuinely care about the subject being spoken about.

Say this

Please do yourself a favor and just never bring up Geno again. I get that you wanted to be fair, and perhaps you may not intend to bash Geno, but you are simply unable to write about him in an unbiased manner, from the dozens of post's I've seen

Yet trashtalk DQ or Sora anytime he can like

Yet, it’s okay for you to come bash DQ every chance you get whenever you come to this thread, but yet you want someone to not give their opinion on Geno, even if it’s negative?! Hmm...interesting. How about you try not to do the same thing chief!

said.

See the issue?

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

Say this



Yet trashtalk DQ or Sora anytime he can like

said.

See the issue?

First of all you formatted this post extremely strangely; but I think I get what you're saying.
The thing is; I never try to come off unbiased. Mr. Leakerman is obviously trying to spin their post into one giant; neutral collection of pro's and con's.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

First of all you formatted this post extremely strangely; but I think I get what you're saying.
The thing is; I never try to come off unbiased. Mr. Leakerman is obviously trying to spin their post into one giant; neutral collection of pro's and con's.

>Calling me Mr. Leakerman instead of my actual username.

I appreciate the respect.

It seems that you just skimmed my arguments and the wrap-up instead of actually reading it. I explicitly stated that the arguments for and against Geno are balanced, and that's true. For every point for Geno, there is a point against him, and vice versa. He's truly a 50/50 character. I figured you would disagree with me given that you disagree with me on everything and have a personal grudge against me as I argue against Geno, but that's okay. We're allowed to disagree as much as I'm allowed to voice my opinions.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

>Calling me Mr. Leakerman instead of my actual username.

I appreciate the respect.

It seems that you just skimmed my arguments and the wrap-up instead of actually reading it. I explicitly stated that the arguments for and against Geno are balanced, and that's true. For every point for Geno, there is a point against him, and vice versa. He's truly a 50/50 character. I figured you would disagree with me given that you disagree with me on everything and have a personal grudge against me as I argue against Geno, but that's okay. We're allowed to disagree as much as I'm allowed to voice my opinions.

They really aren't balanced though... you ESPECIALLY don't make it sound like Geno is less likely than Lara ****ing Croft in your megapost.

 

[KidCham]

Here's the post I've been working on and teasing for the past two days. Let me introduce you to:

THE ULTIMATE heh SQUARE ENIX CHARACTER ARGUMENT​

I'm on a month long break, and to keep my brain from rotting out of my head I've decided to write a series of in-depth speculation posts about current popular Smash Bros. Ultimate Speculation and topics that personally interest me within it. The idea of a Square Enix character has been prevalent in this speculation cycle since at least October, and has recently hit a climax with seemingly everyone and their mom having a source and going after information about the elusive Square Enix character. While I've argued with many about Sora, Geno, and Dragon Quest, I wanted to take an in-depth look into every potential Square Enix pick and argue the pros and cons of their inclusion, which led to this. This is a long post—likely the longest I've written and will ever write—clocking in at over 6,000 words. So buckle up, and I hope you enjoy the ride!

Spoiler: Background - On third parties

While Sakurai has commented on third parties in the past, he's been quite vague, only saying that the characters must appear on Nintendo consoles, both companies must want them and Sakurai must have some artistic license, the character must carry history with them, and (more recently) implying that third parties must have worldwide popularity

Based off of this, I'm going to argue that a third party representative must be at least one of two things: historic and iconic

So, let's take a brief look at our current third parties and how they fit this criteria (echoes are considered with their original counterpart):
Snake: Metal Gear Solid had it's starts on old-computer systems and even had an NES port, and was launched into fame thanks to the well-known Metal Gear Solid franchise headed by Hideo Kojima. Granted, Snake's inclusion was a favor to a friend, but the fact still stands that Snake falls under both criteria.
Sonic: The mascot of Sega himself once went toe-to-toe with Mario and Nintendo in one of the most iconic showdowns in gaming history, and even now that Sega's a third party Sonic is still one of the larger video game series despite it's mis-steps. He more than checks off both criteria.
Megaman: Up until Megaman 7 and Megaman X4 the Megaman series was exclusive to Nintendo, making Megaman a hallmark of early Nintendo, and he even appeared as a main character on the 1980s NES-centered cartoon Captain N. The series remained active from the NES era up until the 7th generation (Wii U, PS4, Xbox One) in one way or another before teetering off, but the series has recently been rebooted with Megaman 11 and a new Megaman X game likely in the works. He handily stands under both criteria.
Pac-Man: Dude's an arcade legend. Mostly everyone knows who Pac-Man is, or has played it in some way shape or form. He speaks for himself, 'nuff said.
Ryu: Another arcade legend, but Ryu also made a notable jump into the console market and has remained on top of the Fighting Game Genre since then. He checks off both boxes.
Cloud: Final Fantasy is undoubtedly the most popular JRPG series, and until the Nintendo 64 was synonymous with Nintendo. Final Fantasy VII is one of the most popular games of all time, and represents a moment in gaming history when Square Enix gave Nintendo a big old middle finger and moved over to Playstation. An odd piece of history to represent, but historic and iconic nonetheless.
Bayonetta: I'll admit this is a bit of an odd one to argue given that Bayonetta as a series is much more recent than the other third parties and much less popular. That being said, I'll still argue that she's iconic. The original Bayonetta was a cult classic, and when a sequel couldn't be funded, Nintendo swooped in and paid for it themselves, and she represents this weird moment in Nintendo history when Nintendo funded an M rated series for the failing Wii U. Since then, Bayonetta has (oddly enough) become synonymous with Nintendo in the modern era, making her a natural inclusion
Simon Belmont: Similar to Megaman or Final Fantasy, Castlevania is synonymous with classic Nintendo, and Simon Belmont also appeared on Captain N as a main character. The Castlevania franchise was active and renowned up until Konami canned it towards the end of the 7th generation, even spawning it's own genre of games, the Metroidvania, in it and Metroid's styles. He definitely checks off both criteria
Joker: I'm still in shock that they added him. I never thought it would happen, but it did. Persona 5 marks a distinct shift in both the series and the JRPG genre towards worldwide popularity, selling 2 million copies as of December 1st 2017 making it the highest selling Persona 5. Persona 5 also was a game of the year contender alongside Breath of the Wild and won best RPG at the Game Awards. Joker doesn't just represent Persona 5 though, he also represents Shin Megami Tensei, an iconic series with a long history of Nintendo exclusives, according to the press release for his inclusion in Smash Bros:

In doing so, he checks off both criteria with his inclusion.

So, all of our third parties but 1 are historic and iconic, with the 1 left being iconic but also having special circumstances. This is important to consider.

Spoiler: Background - Why a Square Enix Character?

For one, a Square Enix character in Smash Ultimate has to be one of, if not the worst kept secret in Nintendo history. We've known about this since at least October, and the rumblings of it began as early as March when the game was first teased. While many believe that leakers have been "BTFO" with the advent of no one knowing about Joker or his impending reveal at The Game Awards, too many people have heard about this for it NOT to happen at this point. Unless Nintendo and Square Enix are playing 5 Dimensional Chess and spreading misinformation about there being a Square Enix character for ****s and giggles, we're getting one, and the misinformation is to mask who it is. Of course, we have that supposed list of 7 characters and accounts of who made it to negotiations and who didn't, but seeing as Nintendo have shown themselves capable of spreading convincing misinformation (Every insider claimed we were getting Metroid Prime and no Smash at The Game Awards only for us to get Joker) I would throw everything we know about the Square Enix character out of the window. For the sake of this post, I'll be doing just that, and I'll be arguing why we should ALL do that in my next speculation piece.

Even if the leaks are fake, I believe there's reason to believe that we're getting a Square Enix character. For one, Square Enix has been oddly liberal with their IPs as of late, adding Noctis (Final Fantasy XV) into Tekken, Behemoth (Final Fantasy) in Monster Hunter, Assassin's Creed with Final Fantasy XV, and 2B (Nier: Automata) into Soul Calibur 6. When discussing how Noctis got into Tekken, it was stated that it was due to the relationship between Tekken producer Katsuhiro Harada and Final Fantasy XV director Hajime Tabata, showing that all it takes is some good blood to get the ball rolling. Fortunately, not only is Sakurai friends with Tetsuya Normura, but Square Enix seems to be in a second golden age with Nintendo, with Octopath Traveler performing better than expected. Prior to its release, Square Enix said that if Octopath Traveler was successful, they would focus on the Switch as a console; staying true to their word Square Enix telling those present at an earnings conference to expect more games like Octopath Traveler and creating a division to specifically focus on making Switch games. Square Enix has every reason to go to Nintendo and get a character of their's in Nintendo; it's win-win, they get exposure for one of their series, and Nintendo gets massive press for Smash Bros.

So then the question becomes: which one?

Spoiler: Erdrick/Dragon Quest Character

This is what inspired me to write this post, given that people have argued for Sora, Geno, and other roster picks citing all of these articles but never Erdrick or another Dragon Quest character. You can thank me later Calane

Anyways, let's begin with a history lesson. Dragon Quest is the grandfather of the entire RPG genre, with the first game in the series releasing on the NES an entire year and a half before the first Final Fantasy game. It is Square Enix's 2nd best selling series, sitting at 75 million units sold as of a year ago between its main titles and spin-offs, and has a long history with Nintendo, with every main entry in the series being playable on Nintendo consoles (only 2 of 11 main series games weren't on Nintendo consoles initially, being 7 and 8, though they later received 3DS remakes). Nintendo even published Dragon Quest I, VI, VII, VIII, and IX within Western countries. IX is notable as it was a third-party DS game published by Nintendo, something only done for Dragon Quest and Level-5 games in the DS era. Mario and co. have also crossed over with the Dragon Quest bunch multiple times in the Fortune Street series, creating a precedent for a crossover between Nintendo and Dragon Quest. More recently, Dragon Quest XI was one of the first games revealed for the Nintendo Switch, then called the Nintendo NX, and more recently has been announced to be an upgraded version named Dragon Quest XI S (appearing at this year's Jump Festa), which will include voice acting among other new features. Needless to say, the ties between Nintendo and Dragon Quest are VERY strong.

Additionally Dragon Quest's is a cultural phenomenon in Japan. This game series is so large that it's spawned an urban myth on the level of "the average human eats 8 spiders in their sleep per year" about there being a law that Dragon Quest games had to be released on weekends, or that when Dragon Quest games released it was akin to a national holiday. While there is a Dragon Quest Day, it's an unofficial holiday, and in reality, 300 kids were arrested for truancy when Dragon Quest III released and muggings of Dragon Quest games became so widespread that there were hearings about in the Japanese parliament, leading the developers to feel bad about creating a nationwide issue and moving the game's release dates to the weekend. The series is large enough to be a common conversation topic in Japan, and is considered by many within the Japanese gaming industry to be Japan's national game. I **** you not, this series is so big that it caused the entire staff of the HiatusxHiatus HunterxHunter anime to go on hiatus JUST TO PLAY DRAGON QUEST, the series has a world record in the Guinness Book of World Records for being the first game to inspire a ballet, and has an amusement park attraction at Universal Studios Japan (where Nintendo will be soon), that's is how big this series is.

Due to Dragon Quest's Japanese popularity, Sakurai talks about it quite a bit. In the Sakurai x Normura Interview Sakurai mentions game designer Yosuke Saito (who worked on Dragon Quest X) on "a list of game designers born in 1970, [where] there's quite a few big names" alongside Hideki Kamiya, Yoko Taro, and John Carmack, and participated in a roundtable discussion with series creator Yuji Horii and Junichi Masuda of Pokémon fame where they discussed Dragon Quest XI. He's notably advocated for the series twice, first in 2011 when he stood up for Dragon Quest X and expressed that he looks forward to it, and plays Devil's Advocate for the series' difficulty, also directly acknowledging the series' popularity in the process, and went far as finding a workaround to play Dragon Quest Heroes among other games while recovering from his arm injury.. Sakurai also notably lists Dragon Quest III alongside Megaman, Final Fantasy, and Ocarina of Time among others when talking about anniversaries, and COMPARES KIRBY (you know, that one character that HE CREATED AND TREATS LIKE HIS CHILD) TO THE MAIN CHARACTER OF A DRAGON QUEST GAME. Needless to say, Dragon Quest is on Sakurai's radar.

Now, to address the common counterarguments:
The first is the series' western popularity. While the series is certainly historic, and is amazingly popular in Japan, it largely lacks a presence in the West, with 3 million+ out of 4 million copies (more than 75%) of Dragon Quest XI being sold in Japan instead of the West. It's no small secret that Square Enix has been fighting a decades long battle (sometimes alongside Nintendo) to make Dragon Quest popular in the West, and it seems like they're stacking the deck to make Dragon Quest XI the game that breaks through. I believe that Square Enix would be willing to make a gamble on the inclusion of a Dragon Quest character in Smash Bros. in an attempt to boost the series' western popularity. We've seen a good amount people interested in playing Persona with the inclusion of Joker, and "the Smash effect" could similarly boost Dragon Quest's western sales in the future.

Second, the licensing. Many people cite Dragon Quest as a "licensing nightmare" in an attempt to discredit the series' inclusion, but it's not as complicated as you'd think. Dragon Quest as a whole is between four parties: Square Enix (Development, IP ownership), Armor Project (game design), Bird Studio (character design), and Koichi Sugiyama (music). Of those four, two are no problem to deal with, being Square Enix and Armor Project, run by series' director Yuji Horii, both of whom have benefitted from positive relations with Nintendo and would no doubt like to have a Dragon Quest character in Smash to boost the series' Western popularity. That leaves Bird Studio, run by Akira Toriyama, and Koichi Sugiyama as the wildcards in rights negotiation for Dragon Quest content. However, I'm willing to believe that both will cooperate. For one, Akira Toriyama worked closely alongside Arc System Works and Namco Bandai to design Android 21, an original character, for Dragon Ball Fighterz. Namco's involvement in this scenario is notable, as they're also developer Smash Bros. Ultimate, and using their connections developing the Dragon Ball games, could bring Toriyama to the negotiating table if he isn't already there. Additionally, in developing at least Fighterz, the developers worked alongside Toei Animation and Shueisha instead of Toriyama, who made slight changes to the game to fit with the Dragon Ball IP, which could be taken as Toriyama taking a back seat when it comes to adaptations of his work. Given how many Dragon Ball games have been made, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case Goku, his star character, has been licensed out on a couple of occasions to Fuji TV and is the ambassador of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games, which leaves me with little doubt he'd be willing to work with Nintendo on a Dragon Quest character for Smash Bros (one of the largest crossovers ever) and grant Sakurai the proper artistic license to make a Dragon Quest character a reasonable inclusion. As for Sugiyama? The use of midi music files has been suggested multiple times and could be a viable way to get Dragon Quest into Smash Bros. if needed. If Nintendo and Sakurai decide to go the orchestral route they might run into trouble due to either money or Sugiyama's seeming unwillingness to let us worldwide players have orchestral music (this is overblown, however, as Dragon Quest XI had a midi soundtrack worldwide instead of just in the West), which is the only problem I could viably see happening. However, Nintendo has dealt with this before and will do it again if negotiations go right, at worst we just end up with midis instead of orchestral music and remixes. As for the controversy surrounding Sugiyama, that's a nonissue, given that Square Enix has made a statement about it saying that it doesn't speak to company policy and are moving ahead with Dragon Quest anyways.

If Square Enix has the chance to push Dragon Quest, I could easily see them doing so. I see a Dragon Quest character as one of, if not the likeliest Square Enix character given that everything seems to line up for it. Dragon Quest is the most historic choice, and while not iconic worldwide, has the proper circumstances surrounding it to make up for that fact and justify it's inclusion in Smash.

Spoiler: Sora

Surprise surprise, one of the top Sora supporters here is going to post a lengthy argument for him. While many have counted him out time and time again, there is a solid case to be made for Sora. As mentioned before, I'm not going to address insider information as I believe it should be thrown out the window (I'll elaborate on this in another mini-essay).

Kingdom Hearts is one of Square Enix's more notable series, selling 24 million units worldwide as of November 2017 making it Square Enix's fourth best selling series. While this may initially seem unimpressive, this is across only 15 titles (2 of which were remakes and 5 of which were collections of previous games). Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and Tomb Raider, Square Enix's top 3 best selling series, clock in at 54 titles, 29 titles, and 30 titles respectively. For Kingdom Hearts to accomplish that much in such a little amount is impressive. The series is a collaboration between Disney and Square Enix and uses both the Disney and Final Fantasy IPs alongside original characters, such as Sora. By sole merit of possessing Disney content a majority of people will know at least something about Kingdom Hearts. The series is also known for Kingdom Hearts 3, which at one point stood alongside games such as Duke Nukem Forever and Half-Life 3 as a game in a popular series trapped in development hell and became a meme within the gaming community because of this; Kingdom Hearts 3 has been teased since 2005, and ever since it's official announcement it's consistently placed within Japanese Gaming Magazine Famitsu's Weekly Most Wanted Games poll, showing Japanese popularity. On the Western front, Kingdom Hearts 3 won 16 awards out 29 nominations at E3 2018, which I believe is a good sign of Western popularity.

Stemming from Kingdom Heart's popularity, demand for Sora in Smash Bros. exists, and it's a lot larger than some would expect. Going back to the Smash Ballot era, the entire Kingdom Hearts community rallied behind Sora, with prominent Kingdom Hearts youtubers HMK and TheGamersJoint (at 36,000 and 59,000 subscribers respectively at the time) both making videos telling their fans to vote for Sora in the ballot. More recently, fans have been more vocal about their wants, with the king of Sm4sh, Zero, voicing his support for Sora and HMK telling a Disney executive to his face that the fans want Sora in Smash alongside reasons for his inclusion. Sora ranked number 1 on an Italian Smash Bros. Fighter Poll, number 5 for large Japanese magazine Inside's most anticipated Smash Bros. character, and number 5 on the Reddit Smash Ultimate Poll with 12,485 votes. Further evidence for an impressive ballot performance for Sora comes from the fact that in the Reddit Ultimate Poll: "The character with the most brigaders (was) Sora (more than half his voters came from non-reddit referrers). This shows that Kingdom Hearts fans care enough about Sora in Smash to vote on a large, unofficial Reddit poll, which would certainly translate to an official Nintendo ballot. Support for Sora even exists within Square Enix, as evidenced by this deleted tweet from series producer and Square Enix executive Shinji Hashimoto. Needless to say, there's a lot of people who want to see Sora in Smash Bros.

As a character, Sora is in an interesting place. While Sora is owned by Disney for all legal purposes, Disney and Square Enix have a gentlemen's agreement between them where Disney has to approach series director Tetsuya Normura and Square Enix to use him in any sort of marketing (source). This gentlemen's agreement is highly important, as evidenced by the canceled 2002 Kingdom Hearts cartoon series—which was canceled "so as to not jeopardize the relationship between Square Enix & Disney as they began to expand the franchise"—and more recently, the canceled Disney Kingdom Hearts game which is speculated to have been canceled due to Square Enix's disapproval. According to Disney of Japan executive Justin Scarpone, the process for negotiating Sora in Smash would go as such:

• Nintendo approaches Disney for negotiations
• Assuming fan demand exists, approval from Normura and Square Enix would be required
• Disney would then work alongside Nintendo to represent Sora accurately.

Let's go through this process bit by bit and look at some of the moving parts here.

To begin, Nintendo needs to convince Disney. This is where the most error can occur, and where the most variability in speculation exists. On one hand, you have users who have worked with Disney or know people who have worked with Disney such as NonSpecificGuy and PlayerOneTyler who express how difficult it is to work with Disney legal for even minor things, but you also have the claim from Scarpone that Disney "isn't restrictive, but particular," examples of Disney cross-promotion in video games, such as:

• Thanos in Fortnite in a time-exclusive game mode (one which seems to be making a return soon)
• Most recently, Wreck-It-Ralph in Fortnite
• Wreck-It-Ralph in Sonic and Sega All-Stars racing

and factors hinting that Disney may not be as soulless as some imagine them to be, such as Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3's exclusivity to Nintendo Switch (when it could make more money being multiplatform) and Normura being the one who decided to not make a Disney fighting game and not Disney. Additionally, Nintendo and Disney seem to be on good terms given the aforementioned exclusivity of Ultimate Alliance 3, the game show that the two made together about the Nintendo Switch, and the fact that Disney XD has streamed events such as the Sm4sh Wii U finals at EVO 2017 and if I recall correctly, the Invitational tournaments. Disney and Nintendo go way back past this, as far as the pre-NES era, and interestingly enough, Nintendo has also published games with Disney characters such as Epic Mickey (in Japan) and Disney's Magical Mirror Starring Mickey Mouse, which makes Disney similar to Dragon Quest in that regard. Overall, negotiations with Disney is a coinflip, but I believe that it's possible, especially if Nintendo and Disney work out a deal outside of Smash (similar to how Ralph ended up in Sega All-Stars racing due to Sonic being in Wreck-It-Ralph).

We've established that fan demand for Sora exists. Getting Normura's approval would be easy given Sakurai's positive relationship with Normura (he even praised Normura and his team for Kingdom Heart's 15th anniversary and expressed that he was a fan of the series), and extending to Square Enix Hashimoto's support of Sora bodes well for Nintendo getting general approval for Sora. While Square Enix has proven themselves difficult to work with, I believe with pressure from inside the company it's likely they'll get approval.

Now, all Sakurai and his team need to do is work alongside Disney to faithfully represent Sora. The question here is whether Disney will give Sakurai the artistic liberty required for him to work, and I'd say that it's 75:25. I could see it going down like how Toei and Shueishi worked alongside Arc System Works for Fighterz where they only made incredibly minor changes, and I trust that if anyone can represent Sora accurately, it's Sakurai; guy's the king of accurate character representation.

Overall, I would give Sora 50/50 chances depending on whether or not Disney can play nice with Nintendo. I would say he's more likely than people think, but I acknowledge that negotiations with him could be difficult enough to consider pursuing another option. However, Sora checks off both boxes (Kingdom Hearts is both an iconic and historic crossover) and his popularity would generate a large amount of sales and press for Smash Bros.

Spoiler: Geno

What's this? tehponycorn arguing for Geno instead of against him? Surely that's impossible! Well, it is, my reputation as a supposed "Geno basher" be damned. This one goes out to my girl Luigi The President - never stop dreaming

Let's start with the most prominent point in Geno's favor: the Sakurai Interview. We all know the one.

Even the interviewer acknowledges Geno's popularity, saying

So, we have a direct statement from Sakurai saying that he wanted Geno in the game for Brawl and Sm4sh, and acknowledgement of his popularity. This is hands down the best point in his favor. Geno, similar to the other two members of the Holy Trinity composed of himself, Ridley, and King K. Rool—the latter two of which were newcomers for Ultimate—has managed to remain a popular speculation pick within the Smash Bros. community since Brawl, and consistently ranks high within fan polls across the core fanbase (the fan polls linked came from Twitter, Reddit, 4chan's /v/, and SourceGaming among other sources). His Mii Costume also got it's own splash screen, making it notable as no other Mii Costumes got that level of preferential treatment, and Spirits of him and Mallow are the only Square Enix spirits to appear besides Cloud, meaning that someone is pushing for his inclusion, or at least acknowledgement, in Smash Bros.

The game he's from, Super Mario RPG for the SNES, isn't a slouch in terms of notoriety. For one, it's revered to this day as a classic SNES RPG alongside Crono Trigger and Final Fantasy 6, and sold 2.14 million copies in it's original run, with rereleases on the Wii and Wii U virtual console and most recently a rerelease on the SNES classic, which has sold over 5 million units (as of March 2018).

Another argument in favor of Geno is how simple it would be to acquire the rights to him. Compared to the messes that are Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, and even Final Fantasy with it's music, all Nintendo would need to do is get the rights for Geno and Super Mario RPG content. The main composer for the game, Yoko Shimomura, is already onboard for Smash Ultimate, facilitating negotiations for music and introducing the possibilities of remixes and making for an easy process to acquire Geno and include him in Smash Bros. Geno would also represent the culmination Nintendo and Square Enix's first golden age, which is incredibly fitting seeing as they're currently entering their second one.

All that being said, there are valid counterarguments for each of the above points.

Geno's popularity cannot be denied due to Sakurai and the Nintendo Dream Interviewer's direct acknowledgement of it. If Sakurai has wanted Geno in since Brawl, however, then why hasn't he been added? Pac-Man, Villager, and Miis, all previously considered characters for Brawl similar to Geno, made the jump to playable status in Smash 4, and even Ridley, a character that Sakurai famously denied, made the jump in Smash Ultimate. So then why hasn't Geno, a character that's been seriously considered for the last two entries, made a similar jump? The most common theory currently is that Square Enix refuses to give Sakurai and co. the license to use Geno as a playable character; why add Geno when another, more relevant character could be added to promote a current series for Square Enix? Remember, Square Enix is all about cross-promotion in their crossover deals, and Geno hasn't had a game release in 20 years.

However, Square Enix did give Sakurai and co. the rights to make a mii costume and include Spirits of the characters in Smash Ultimate, so they're not completely opposed to the prospect of Geno in Smash. I imagine that negotiating for a mii costume and literal .png files is much easier than negotiating for a playable character though. The argument of "would Square Enix grant Nintendo the rights to Geno" is one that is difficult to answer because both sides are valid. It would be incredibly easy to get Geno in Smash Bros. compared to other Square Enix characters, making his inclusion the one with the least risk.

While Geno always performs well in fan polls, fan polls, by nature, are susceptible to Voluntary Response Bias, which skews statistical data when the sample size is composed of self-selected volunteers. People who participate in polls conducted by the core fanbase are more likely to vote for characters widely supported by the core fanbase, i.e. Geno. This is further evidenced by the Ultimate Reddit poll, wherein Sora and Phoenix Wright, two nonstandard picks for the core fanbase, performed very well due to the high number of brigaders for those characters. Within that same fan poll, it was stated that most of Geno's support came from the United States, showing that he isn't nearly as popular abroad as he is here. While fan polls are a great general indicator of the fanbase's wishes, they can't be relied on for hard evidence due to the bias present in them by nature. I would say that given the larger size of the Ultimate Reddit poll, it can be trusted relatively well, but it still doesn't account for the large, silent, casual fanbase, who are equally as valid as the core fanbase. While the core fanbase would be ecstatic about Geno, the casual fanbase would likely not know who he is given the low sales of his game compared to Square Enix's other series (while he did appear on the SNES Classic, it's worth noting that many purchases of the SNES Classic was marketed towards those looking to re-experience the classic SNES games of their youth, and therefore many purchases of the SNES Classic were from people who likely already knew about Geno or bought the console for another game unrelated to him). From this, while Geno's inclusion has the least risk, it also likely has the least reward.

Finally, as a miscellaneous point, multiple other Mii characters got splash screens, such as Abraham Lincoln, Elijah Wood, and Ice T alongside members of the J-Pop idol group AKB48. I also swear that Nikki from Swapnote got her own little trailer as a Mii Fighter, but was unable to find any proof of such. This may be tangental to the prominence of the splash screen for Geno's costume seeing that it's a character costume and not just a mii alongside the fact that Geno is a third party character, but I still believe it's a point worth mentioning that Geno could've just been a marketable face similar to the former characters.

Overall, I give Geno a 50/50 chance depending on whether or not Square Enix and Nintendo want to go the easy route. I personally doubt that they would, but I understand that there's a case to be made for them doing so. Despite my own biases, I acknowledge that both sides have equal weight, and Geno is truly a tossup at this point; he's historic, but it's kind of reach, and he's not iconic, but could maybe have the extenuating circumstances required to make up for that. It's truly difficult to tell.

Spoiler: Final Fantasy Character

I'm condensing every possible Final Fantasy fighter into one for the sake of my own sanity, as there are so many possible fighters here. So, I'm going to be arguing for the series' merits and then listing some characters I believe could be our second Final Fantasy rep if we get one.

Final Fantasy is Square Enix's flagship franchise, selling over 144 million units as of March 2018. That's a little under double that of Dragon Quest, Square Enix's next best selling series. This also shows in the promotion that the series receives, such as the aforementioned Noctis in Tekken, Assassin's Creed in Final Fantasy XV, and Behemoth in Tekken (see Background - Why a Square Enix Character?) alongside, you know, . Sakurai even acknowledged this within the Nintendo Dream Interview by calling it

So, it would be a safe pick for Square Enix to go for another Square Enix series, given the long history the series has with Nintendo and the many iconic characters within the series. However, with that many characters, who would they choose next? I have four ideas:

Bartz Klauser
Protagonist of Final Fantasy V for the SNES, mentioned within the same interview as Cloud by Sakurai, who remarked that a moveset about switching jobs could be "interesting." Sakurai has previously dropped things within interviews that were prominent, such as how Castlevania impacted him similar to the Legend of Zelda and how excited he was to play Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow prior to Simon's reveal.

Onion Knight
Mentioned within the same interview as Bartz, but isn't as likely given that it was Japan-exclusive until 2006.

Terra Branford
A little bit of personal speculation on my part, but given how Final Fantasy 6 is often held as one of the best JRPGs of all time and is prominently on Nintendo console, it would make sense for her to be our second Final Fantasy pick.

Sephiroth
Final Fantasy 7 is already on the table given Cloud's inclusion, so it'd be relatively easy to secure the character rights for him. Sephiroth is one of the most iconic villains in all of gaming history, and anyone who knows about Cloud will know about his age old rival Sephiroth.

Despite it being Square Enix's flagship franchise and having a bevy of characters to choose from, there are barriers to inclusion for a Final Fantasy character. For one, the way that licensing for Final Fantasy is handled scatters the rights to music and different components among the creators of those works. This leads to what could be costly licensing fees for Nintendo, to the point where it's simply not worth to negotiate for music. Additionally, no precedent for a series having two unique characters exists. While this is nothing but a fan rule that could easily be shattered, it's still worth noting, especially when both Bayonetta and Joker—both owned by Sega—got in over another Sonic character.

While I certainly wouldn't discount the inclusion of another Final Fantasy character, I also wouldn't see it as the most likely scenario.

Spoiler: Lara Croft

Tomb Raider is Square Enix's third best selling series, selling 60 million units as of March 2018 and defining the action adventure genre later refined by series such as Uncharted. Tomb Raider is also notable due to its status as a cultural phenomenon, as its spawned three movies, multiple soundtracks, a TV series, and multiple comic series and novelizations over the years. The only other Square Enix series to come close to this is Dragon Quest, and even then it lacks the worldwide appeal that Tomb Raider does. Lara Croft is an iconic character, and you'd be hard pressed to find a top 10 women in video games list without her, with her even winning the world record for "most successful female video game character" within the 2010 Guinness Book of World Records. This was before the series' remake, mind you, meaning that she and her series have only become more successful since then.

There are a couple of barriers for Laura's inclusion, however. For one, she's more associated with Playstation and Xbox than Nintendo. While we do have characters more known for appearances on Playstation systems, being Snake, Cloud, and Joker, each of them have some sort of circumstance behind that, with Snake largely being a favor for a friend, and Cloud and Joker representing Final Fantasy and Shin Megami Tensei, two series with historic ties to Nintendo. Lara Croft lacks either of these circumstances, which is significant. Furthermore, she uses realistic weaponry, such as her signature dual pistols, for most of her attacks, and it is unknown whether this could translate into to Smash similar to Snake or Bayonetta, both of whom were toned down in that regard. Finally, she's a British developed character, which subjects her to the stigma against Western character which seems to be present within the series, with Diddy Kong, King K. Rool, and Dark Samus being the only character created outside of Japan.


While Lara Croft as the Square Enix character is worth being discussed, I would say that she's the dark horse pick of the bunch and is overall unlikely. Keep her in mind though.

Spoiler: Gex

YOU THOUGHT I WAS SERIOUSLY GOING TO ARGUE FOR GEX?!

Joking aside, Gex has appeared on Nintendo consoles before, and his three games have sold a total of 15 million units worldwide, which is nothing to laugh at. I'd say it's more possible than you'd think, but still very unlikely.

Spoiler: Misc.

I acknowledge that the Square Enix character could be someone not previously argued for. So, I'm going to be doing small arguments for other character I believe could be the Square Enix rep, but wouldn't necessarily hold out hopes for.
Crono
Crono almost got his own section, but in the end I couldn't justify that as much as I could justify using him to start this section. Similar to Terra and Final Fantasy 6, Chrono Trigger appears on many, if not every list of the greatest JRPGs of all time. However, he's in a similar place as Geno wherein he hasn't had a recent game in his series for around 20 years, but doesn't have the vocal fanbase to keep him going.

Neku Sakuraba
The World Ends With You is a critically acclaimed cult classic (that's a tongue-twister) that's appeared on the Nintendo DS and iOS/Android alongside the Nintendo Switch. That said, it's only a cult classic and has failed to establish itself as a series. I would say he has good chances as a predominantly Nintendo character, but compared to other, larger Square Enix picks he fails to compare.

Agnès Oblige
Another Square Enix character predominantly on Nintendo systems, Bravely Default 1 & 2 were critically acclaimed JRPGs on the 3DS. However, with a third entry in the series for Nintendo Switch unconfirmed, she lacks the relevance required to make her a notable pick for DLC.

2B
While 2B is a popular Square Enix character and has even made an appearance in Soul Calibur 6 as a playable character, she's never appeared on a Nintendo console and is therefore ineligible for Smash Bros. Sorry NineS .

Spoiler: Wrap-Up: My Thoughts

If I had to bet on which Square Enix character I think will get in, I'd put all my money on Dragon Quest. Every factor seems to line up in the series' favor, and the most notable counterarguments are made up for and can't really be used against it. If I had to make a chart for it, it would go like this:

Dragon Quest >> Final Fantasy Character > Lara Croft > Geno = Sora = Crono > Neku > Anyone else

While speculation about the Square Enix representative was initially exciting, I've quickly found it to become tiring and monotonous, as speculation continues to circle around the same rehashed topics and every time we get a new piece of information we end up right where we started in terms of what we know. Hopefully this piece clears up some misconceptions and offers some closure to the circuitous arguments that the fanbase has found itself mired in. At this point I would suggest that everyone just sit back and relax, for it seems like similar to Mr. Bone, Mr. Square Enix's wild ride won't be ending anytime soon.

a very good analysis

HOWEVER

may i underline two things that i see wrong

1) The relevance of Chrono, while he didn't have any new game, the game is ported on everything, including Steam, Phones, and soon it might be Switch (there is rumors of a switch port of Chrono Trigger

2) Last but not least, about 2B not being on a nintendo console
https://www.ign.com/articles/2018/1...blematic-of-smash-bros-ultimates-dlc-approach

"Fils-Aime explained that Sakurai and the team working on Ultimate’s DLC don’t necessarily see characters from franchises not typically associated with Nintendo as a limiting factor when it comes to Smash Bros."

And i think it is a very important quote to be taken when speculating

Edit: Also Platinum has 3 incoming games for the switch, 2 are unknown, one is Bayonetta 3. Yoko Taro said at E3 that he was willing to port Nier Automata on switch.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

a very good analysis

HOWEVER

may i underline two things that i see wrong

1) The relevance of Chrono, while he didn't have any new game, the game is ported on everything, including Steam, Phones, and soon it might be Switch (there is rumors of a switch port of Chrono Trigger

2) Last but not least, about 2B not being on a nintendo console
https://www.ign.com/articles/2018/1...blematic-of-smash-bros-ultimates-dlc-approach

"Fils-Aime explained that Sakurai and the team working on Ultimate’s DLC don’t necessarily see characters from franchises not typically associated with Nintendo as a limiting factor when it comes to Smash Bros."

And i think it is a very important quote to be taken when speculating

Edit: Also Platinum has 3 incoming games for the switch, 2 are unknown, one is Bayonetta 3. Yoko Taro said at E3 that he was willing to port Nier Automata on switch.

If we're going to bring up the hypothetically chrono trigger port; then we'd be remiss to leave out the possibility that the octopath team are set to remake a classic Nintendo RPG as well...

 

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

a very good analysis

HOWEVER

may i underline two things that i see wrong

1) The relevance of Chrono, while he didn't have any new game, the game is ported on everything, including Steam, Phones, and soon it might be Switch (there is rumors of a switch port of Chrono Trigger

2) Last but not least, about 2B not being on a nintendo console
https://www.ign.com/articles/2018/1...blematic-of-smash-bros-ultimates-dlc-approach

"Fils-Aime explained that Sakurai and the team working on Ultimate’s DLC don’t necessarily see characters from franchises not typically associated with Nintendo as a limiting factor when it comes to Smash Bros."

And i think it is a very important quote to be taken when speculating

Edit: Also Platinum has 3 incoming games for the switch, 2 are unknown, one is Bayonetta 3. Yoko Taro said at E3 that he was willing to port Nier Automata on switch.

Also, another thing about the Chrono port, it wasn't great at all. They got burned from that Chrono port when it came out. I don't know what it is about Square and their ports, or remastering games. They either be decent or just bad. The same can be kind of said for the Secret of Mana remake, it wasn't great, it was just average at best. I know quality probably doesn't matter in this sense for Smash, but I think it just goes to show how much Square seems to care about Chrono if they were able to put out that game like that. It just seemed like it didn't matter to them in the end at all. It was like, why do a port in the first place, if it wasn't going to at least be somewhat polished?

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

a very good analysis

HOWEVER

may i underline two things that i see wrong

1) The relevance of Chrono, while he didn't have any new game, the game is ported on everything, including Steam, Phones, and soon it might be Switch (there is rumors of a switch port of Chrono Trigger

2) Last but not least, about 2B not being on a nintendo console
https://www.ign.com/articles/2018/1...blematic-of-smash-bros-ultimates-dlc-approach

"Fils-Aime explained that Sakurai and the team working on Ultimate’s DLC don’t necessarily see characters from franchises not typically associated with Nintendo as a limiting factor when it comes to Smash Bros."

And i think it is a very important quote to be taken when speculating

Characters must have at least ONE appearance on a Nintendo console, however, as evidenced by Sakurai mentioning Theathrhythm Final Fantasy in the Cloud interview. 2B still has yet to appear on a Nintendo console.

Or maybe that's just another dumb fan rule that can be broken. I don't know.

They really aren't balanced though... you ESPECIALLY don't make it sound like Geno is less likely than Lara ****ing Croft in your megapost.

So I make it sound like Geno is more likely than Lara Croft? That's a bad thing?

I think I get it now. You took the wrap-up as a summation of the entire article. I called it "my thoughts" for a reason; it is my thoughts based on the evidence that provided, with my own biases incorporated. Of course, your thoughts will be different from mine as you'll reach different conclusions with the same evidence. That's natural, and having differing opinions is okay and, in my opinion, actually better than conforming to one mindset as it challenges previously held beliefs and conceptions. In writing this post, I came to believe that Geno IS MORE LIKELY than I did in the past, so I find it funny you still think that I think so low of him.

I understand that you don't like me, but at least read what I have to say, and if you disagree, provide me with evidence to refute my points instead of resorting to ad hominem and bashing my thoughts because they conflict with your's.

 

[KidCham]

besides what i want or not anyway, with the upmost honesty

Considering they brought Castlevania back alive in Smash, which is a legendary piece of video games.

The last legendary piece of video games lacking in the most ambitious Smash game ever is Dragon Quest, whether you like it or not (and i've never played a single one).

From the point of view of Sakurai, who sees his baby as the biggest video game cross over in history, his pride would want to get Dragon Quest in Smash. And the fact that it's "difficult" to get must challenge even more his pride.

Let's put it this way, if Dragon Quest was brought as 2nd character DLC, they could stop the dlcs right after as the game is already complete, you can't add more to its legacy.

The only thing against Dragon Quest is that you can't always get what you want as Sakurai learned it with Geno since Brawl, he may want Dragon Quest fondly but he may not get it, from either Nintendo executives or Square Enix.

In other words, when Nintendo reached Sakurai with the famous list, if there was Dragon Quest in it and any other Square Enix games too, Sakurai would pick Dragon Quest for sure in front of everything else.

Everything depends on what Nintendo thought was possible to negotiate and what Sakurai picked from.

Also, another thing about the Chrono port, it wasn't great at all. They got burned from that Chrono port when it came out. I don't know what it is about Square and their ports, or remastering games. They either be decent or just bad. I know quality probably doesn't matter in this sense for Smash, but I think it just goes to show how much Square seems to care about Chrono if they were able to put out that game like that. It just seemed like it didn't matter to them in the end at all. It was like, why do a port in the first place, if it wasn't going to at least be somewhat polished?

well Chrono Trigger was profitable for long, the investment at first is recovered since 23 years, so they don't have to give a **** about efforts or anything else as they can't lose money over any port of Chrono Trigger, as it costs none to them.
It's basically just bonus, that's why.

 

[Pinguino21v]

Has anyone ever mentioned the possibility of a FFXIV character? A large pool of potential players, a strong way to cross promote both games...

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

Characters must have at least ONE appearance on a Nintendo console, however, as evidenced by Sakurai mentioning Theathrhythm Final Fantasy in the Cloud interview. 2B still has yet to appear on a Nintendo console.

Or maybe that's just another dumb fan rule that can be broken. I don't know.

So I make it sound like Geno is more likely than Lara Croft? That's a bad thing to you?

I think I get it now; You took the wrap-up as a summation of the entire article. I called it "my thoughts" for a reason, because that's what it is: my thoughts based on the evidence that I've provided, with my own bias incorporated into that. Of course, your thoughts will be different from mine as you'll reach different conclusions with the evidence provided.

I understand that you don't like me, but at least read what I have to say, and if you disagree, provide me with evidence to refute my points instead of resorting to ad hominem and bashing my thoughts because they conflict with your's.

Refuting your points doesn't work. Anything I could say can be reflected with a "true, but however". That's just the convenient nature of speculation.

They still published multiple Dragon Quest games in the West, like the 3DS remakes of DQ7 and DQ8. I doubt that he is a problem.

besides what i want or not anyway, with the upmost honesty

Considering they brought Castlevania back alive in Smash, which is a legendary piece of video games.

The last legendary piece of video games lacking in the most ambitious Smash game ever is Dragon Quest, whether you like it or not (and i've never played a single one).

From the point of view of Sakurai, who sees his baby as the biggest video game cross over in history, his pride would want to get Dragon Quest in Smash. And the fact that it's "difficult" to get must challenge even more his pride.

Let's put it this way, if Dragon Quest was brought as 2nd character DLC, they could stop the dlcs right after as the game is already complete, you can't add more to its legacy.

The only thing against Dragon Quest is that you can't always get what you want as Sakurai learned it with Geno since Brawl, he may want Dragon Quest fondly but he may not get it, from either Nintendo executives or Square Enix.

In other words, when Nintendo reached Sakurai with the famous list, if there was Dragon Quest in it and any other Square Enix games too, Sakurai would pick Dragon Quest for sure in front of everything else.

Everything depends on what Nintendo thought was possible to negotiate and what Sakurai picked from.

Oh ****, I didn't know you were friend's with Sakurai! Surely that's why you know with such confidence that he'd pick Dragon Quest over Geno on a list, and you aren't just talking out your ass! I'm humbled to be in the grace of such a close friend of Sakurai's!

 

[MajoraMan28]

Characters must have at least ONE appearance on a Nintendo console, however, as evidenced by Sakurai mentioning Theathrhythm Final Fantasy in the Cloud interview. 2B still has yet to appear on a Nintendo console.

Or maybe that's just another dumb fan rule that can be broken. I don't know.

So I make it sound like Geno is more likely than Lara Croft? That's a bad thing?

I think I get it now. You took the wrap-up as a summation of the entire article. I called it "my thoughts" for a reason; it is my thoughts based on the evidence that provided, with my own biases incorporated. Of course, your thoughts will be different from mine as you'll reach different conclusions with the same evidence. That's natural, and having differing opinions is okay and, in my opinion, actually better than conforming to one mindset as it challenges previously held beliefs and conceptions. In writing this post, I came to believe that Geno IS MORE LIKELY than I did in the past, so I find it funny you still think that I think so low of him.

I understand that you don't like me, but at least read what I have to say, and if you disagree, provide me with evidence to refute my points instead of resorting to ad hominem and bashing my thoughts because they conflict with your's.

If you've read his posts in the Geno thread and other places, and you honestly think he would leave his overly sensitive emotions and bias aside to rationalize this whether his character is deconfirmed or not, I must say, you are quite the optimist, to say the least.

I just have one thing to clarify on the FF part. While I agree with your choices for other FF titles (Terra would be my pick as well), Cloud's series symbol is the "FF" from the FF series logo. But both in-game and the blog lists his franchise as merely FFVII. If any FF character would get in, it would be one from that game. And being realistic here, it would be either Tifa or Sephiroth. Other characters from that game have no chance.

 

[KidCham]

Oh ****, I didn't know you were friend's with Sakurai! Surely that's why you know with such confidence that he'd pick Dragon Quest over Geno on a list, and you aren't just talking out your ***! I'm humbled to be in the grace of such a close friend of Sakurai's!

it's just common sense come on

you have a choice between a secondary character from a 23 years old dead game
and the most legendary video games serie of Japan

to get a representation in your big cross over game you've been polishing for years, having hard times bringing big characters like simon belmont, sonic, pacman, snake, etc...

Why would you choose Geno ?
Even if you prefer Geno, you put your bias aside and you take the other choice as it would put your game even more in the spotlight to unreachable levels

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

it's just common sense come on

you have a choice between a secondary character from a 23 years old dead game
and the most legendary video games serie of Japan

to get a representation in your big cross over game you've been polishing for years, having hard times bringing big characters like simon belmont, sonic, pacman, snake, etc...

Why would you choose Geno ?
Even if you prefer Geno, you put your bias aside and you take the other choice as it would put your game even more in the spotlight to unreachable levels

Geno's bigger fanbase within the Smash community; for starters.

 

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

Has anyone ever mentioned the possibility of a FFXIV character? A large pool of potential players, a strong way to cross promote both games...

From 14, that's a good question, in terms of Final Fantasy getting someone else, it seems to be the darkhorse choice when it comes to the speculation of a second Square character I don't see it as likely, but I don't see it as off the table either. It is currently the most on-going Final Fantasy game and it still gets promoted. Is there a particular character that you're interested in or are you just throwing it in there as a possibility? I'm curious.

 

[beans]

From 14, that's a good question, in terms of Final Fantasy getting someone else, it seems to be the darkhorse choice when it comes to the speculation of a second Square character I don't see it as likely, but I don't see it as off the table either. It is currently the most on-going Final Fantasy game and it still gets promoted. Is there a particular character that you're interested in or are you just throwing it in there as a possibility? I'm curious.

XIV is fourteen brudda.
Also to continue the discussion on it: It would be Y'shtola (am I writing it correctly)
I mean, she was the Dissidia NT rep from XIV

 

[KidCham]

Geno's bigger fanbase within the Smash community; for starters.

which is coming only from the US, it's not very asked either in Europe and either in Japan

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

which is coming only from the US, it's not very asked either in Europe and either in Japan

This is incorrect. You can find plenty of information that contradicts this in the Geno thread; by people who do far more research than I.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Refuting your points doesn't work. Anything I could say can be reflected with a "true, but however". That's just the convenient nature of speculation.

So then what's the point of bashing on other's ideas? Is that "just the convenient nature of speculation?" Because it surely isn't; I've had insightful discussions with many members here where, while we disagreed, we were able to do so respectfully. No one here is personally attacking you or ****ting on Geno and his chances, so I don't understand why you lash out at others so easily. It doesn't offer anything constructive to the conversation and reflects poorly on you and, by virtue of association, the Geno and Smash Bros. fanbases.

Do you understand where I'm coming from here?

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

So then what's the point of bashing on other's ideas? Is that "just the convenient nature of speculation?" Because it surely isn't; I've had insightful discussions with many members here where, while we disagreed, we were able to do so respectfully. No one here is personally attacking you or ****ting on Geno and his chances, so I don't understand why you lash out at others so easily. It doesn't offer anything constructive to the conversation and reflects poorly on you and, by virtue of association, the Geno and Smash Bros. fanbases.

Do you understand where I'm coming from here?

I mean of course I can comprehend your point. My opinion on if I agree is a separate matter, though I digress.

I'm just doing what I think is appropriate. Geno rarely get's a voice outside of his own thread; so I'll gladly take and refute any **** thrown his way.

 

[Nekoo]

I'm just doing what I think is appropriate. Geno rarely get's a voice outside of his own thread; so I'll gladly take and refute any **** thrown his way

I take "Things that are not true since Brawl because everyone and their grandma who call themselves a smash fan predict Geno every game, every fake leak, every DLC, every time since 2008" for a million dollars.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

I take "Things that are not true since Brawl because everyone and their grandma who call themselves a smash fan predict Geno every game, every fake leak, every DLC, every time since 2008" for a million dollars.

Just because people predict it; doesn't make it the popular choice. A lot of Smash fans are indifferent, or even hate Geno.

 

[SuperSceptile15]

I think either Sora or Slime is the most likely scenario. As we saw from Joker, it's safe to say Nintendo is aiming for unexpected heavy hitter third parties that appeal to everyone and not just the hardcore Smash community bubble, so Sora would fit nicely due to many people writing him off simply because he's owned by Disney. Slime would also be unexpected as it would be a Piranha Plant type of deal, but it would represent the grandfather of JRPGs.

Also, I don't think Geno has a chance anymore. The spirit already put him in an unfavorable position, but now after the first DLC newcomer reveal, he's pretty much not happening. Not only that, but the majority of the Game Awards' audience don't even know who Geno is. If he was a first party character, he definitely would have gotten in by now.

 

[Nekoo]

Just because people predict it; doesn't make it the popular choice. A lot of Smash fans are indifferent, or even hate Geno.

If so many people hate him, he wouldn't rank high in every newcomers poll my man.

Stop downplaying your Characters and fanbase that much.
Yes, in the grand schemes of things, for Square Enix he's a literal ****ing who.
But in terms of fanbase he's the biggest now after Ridley and K.Rool who are in Ultimate.