DaybreakHorizon
Beauty in the Chaos
We talking about spreading misinformation? I thought about posting this here but decided not to, but if it's pertinent to the conversation, I'll post this for y'all's reading pleasure.
Hello everyone, and welcome to the second in a series of speculation posts written by your's truly. Last time I wrote about the hot buzz surrounding a potential Square Enix character joining the fight, and this time I'll be writing about The Game Awards (in much less words) and arguing that we should all be more critical towards insider information regardless of how reputable a given insider is. So, lets get right into it!
We Never Saw It Coming: The Game Awards as a Case Study for Doubt
Hello everyone, and welcome to the second in a series of speculation posts written by your's truly. Last time I wrote about the hot buzz surrounding a potential Square Enix character joining the fight, and this time I'll be writing about The Game Awards (in much less words) and arguing that we should all be more critical towards insider information regardless of how reputable a given insider is. So, lets get right into it!
- I feel that before I write anything I should first voice that in writing this I do not intend to demean or slander anyone's character. If I come across that way, then it's nothing more than a failure of my writing and not an outright attack.
- Of course, this is speculation. I am not an absolute authority nor will I ever be. I'm simply a fan with a good mind for speculation who likes to put that to use.
To sum it briefly, Doritos Pope delivered:
In more detail:
June 16, 2018
Reggie and Geoff Keighley play Mario Tennis at E3 2018, and Reggie hints at a special reveal at The Game Awards 2018 (first 20 seconds of the Twitter video).
September 26, 2018
Reggie wears a Metroid shirt under his suit in a picture with Geoff Keighley. The picture is posted on Twitter with the caption "See you in December!" Fans speculate that Metroid Prime 4 will be shown off at The Game Awards.
October 24, 2018
In the midst of the Grinch Hoax, Spawn Wave drops a hint about Sora being revealed for Smash Bros. at The Game Awards. Fans speculate that a Smash Bros. reveal may occur at The Game Awards.
November 1, 2018
In the Final Smash Bros. Direct, Piranha Plant 5 unknown DLC fighters are announced. Fans begin to speculate who the unknown fighters could be.
~November 2, 2018
Reputable Leaker Vergeben states that the Square Enix character will be the first DLC character revealed. (Source 2)
November 6, 2018
Sakurai confirms on Twitter that the DLC fighter selection is complete, saying that "This time the selection (of characters) was made entirely by Nintendo." Fans begin to despair about what this could mean.
November 14, 2018
Reputable Leaker Spawn Wave teases an upcoming Metroid Prime reveal. Fans assume that this means a Metroid Prime 4 trailer at The Game Awards.
November 25, 2018
Spawn Wave hints again at Metroid Prime being revealed at The Game Awards.
November 26, 2018
Spawn Wave drops another hint about an upcoming Metroid Prime reveal.
Concurrently, our own PolarPanda begins to drop information about the Square Enix character. He, Fatmanonice, and Rummy continue to drop details leading up to The Game Awards with the assumed payoff that the Square Enix rep will be the first character revealed there.
November 30, 2018
@BoundaryBreak posts a clip of the June 16 video to Twitter. Fans begin to hype up.
December 4, 2018
Spawn Wave continues to hint at a Metroid Prime reveal.
Swedish retailer Inet lists a Metroid Prime Trilogy for Nintendo Switch on their store front. People take it as a soft confirmation; Metroid Prime at The Game Awards is all but confirmed.
December 5, 2018
Spawn Wave drops one final hint towards a Metroid Prime reveal at The Game Awards.
Fatmanonice, privy to the same information as PolarPanda and his sources, tells the Geno thread not to expect a Smash Bros. reveal at The Game Awards.
Reputable insider Ryce says not to expect a DLC reveal "for another month or two."
December 6, 2018
Joker from Persona 5 is revealed as a playable character at The Game Awards, and Metroid Prime does not make any appearance.
Following the Game Awards, PolarPanda remarks that what was implied to happen to his source did not happen.
In more detail:
June 16, 2018
Reggie and Geoff Keighley play Mario Tennis at E3 2018, and Reggie hints at a special reveal at The Game Awards 2018 (first 20 seconds of the Twitter video).
September 26, 2018
Reggie wears a Metroid shirt under his suit in a picture with Geoff Keighley. The picture is posted on Twitter with the caption "See you in December!" Fans speculate that Metroid Prime 4 will be shown off at The Game Awards.
October 24, 2018
In the midst of the Grinch Hoax, Spawn Wave drops a hint about Sora being revealed for Smash Bros. at The Game Awards. Fans speculate that a Smash Bros. reveal may occur at The Game Awards.
November 1, 2018
In the Final Smash Bros. Direct, Piranha Plant 5 unknown DLC fighters are announced. Fans begin to speculate who the unknown fighters could be.
~November 2, 2018
Reputable Leaker Vergeben states that the Square Enix character will be the first DLC character revealed. (Source 2)
November 6, 2018
Sakurai confirms on Twitter that the DLC fighter selection is complete, saying that "This time the selection (of characters) was made entirely by Nintendo." Fans begin to despair about what this could mean.
November 14, 2018
Reputable Leaker Spawn Wave teases an upcoming Metroid Prime reveal. Fans assume that this means a Metroid Prime 4 trailer at The Game Awards.
November 25, 2018
Spawn Wave hints again at Metroid Prime being revealed at The Game Awards.
November 26, 2018
Spawn Wave drops another hint about an upcoming Metroid Prime reveal.
Concurrently, our own PolarPanda begins to drop information about the Square Enix character. He, Fatmanonice, and Rummy continue to drop details leading up to The Game Awards with the assumed payoff that the Square Enix rep will be the first character revealed there.
November 30, 2018
@BoundaryBreak posts a clip of the June 16 video to Twitter. Fans begin to hype up.
December 4, 2018
Spawn Wave continues to hint at a Metroid Prime reveal.
Swedish retailer Inet lists a Metroid Prime Trilogy for Nintendo Switch on their store front. People take it as a soft confirmation; Metroid Prime at The Game Awards is all but confirmed.
December 5, 2018
Spawn Wave drops one final hint towards a Metroid Prime reveal at The Game Awards.
Fatmanonice, privy to the same information as PolarPanda and his sources, tells the Geno thread not to expect a Smash Bros. reveal at The Game Awards.
Reputable insider Ryce says not to expect a DLC reveal "for another month or two."
December 6, 2018
Joker from Persona 5 is revealed as a playable character at The Game Awards, and Metroid Prime does not make any appearance.
Following the Game Awards, PolarPanda remarks that what was implied to happen to his source did not happen.
The idea of Nintendo spreading misinformation is one that I helped popularize to the point where it became a main point for the Grinch Hoax ("Incineroar is leak bait!") and I regretted it. It's a hypothetical scenario that's difficult to prove, but I believe that the scenario surrounding The Game Awards proves that, at the very least, the idea of Nintendo spreading misinformation is on the table.
Spawn Wave was known for a perfect streak of leaks, and Panda's source was verified by multiple Smashboards moderators and veteran community members, proving that they have actual insider information. For all intents and purposes, they should've have had correct information, but they didn't. Everything pointed towards Metroid Prime, yet instead we get Joker in Smash Bros. Essentially, this shows that Nintendo is capable of spreading misinformation, and more importantly, they know where to spread misinformation. Therefore, regardless of how many sources a person has, their conjecture should be taken as that until proven otherwise
Granted, the Video Game Awards is an event that Nintendo is a part of and not something run by Nintendo, so the misinformation could've been due to Geoff Keighly and co. instead of Nintendo, similar to the circumstances surrounding the Square Enix rep, but this is the third known use of misinformation during Smash Bros. DLC speculation (the first being the Square Enix rep, and the second being the fake list of characters obtained by Hitagi and co.). As Poet Jade Ivy said:
Spawn Wave was known for a perfect streak of leaks, and Panda's source was verified by multiple Smashboards moderators and veteran community members, proving that they have actual insider information. For all intents and purposes, they should've have had correct information, but they didn't. Everything pointed towards Metroid Prime, yet instead we get Joker in Smash Bros. Essentially, this shows that Nintendo is capable of spreading misinformation, and more importantly, they know where to spread misinformation. Therefore, regardless of how many sources a person has, their conjecture should be taken as that until proven otherwise
Granted, the Video Game Awards is an event that Nintendo is a part of and not something run by Nintendo, so the misinformation could've been due to Geoff Keighly and co. instead of Nintendo, similar to the circumstances surrounding the Square Enix rep, but this is the third known use of misinformation during Smash Bros. DLC speculation (the first being the Square Enix rep, and the second being the fake list of characters obtained by Hitagi and co.). As Poet Jade Ivy said:
Smash Bros. DLC speculation is a different beast from main speculation entirely. We don't have playtesters to leak everything, nor can we truly rely on insiders to give us information. I believe its time we break the cycle of speculation wherein we engage with different insiders (Vergeben, loz18, Spawn Wave, PolarPanda and co., etc.), take their word as gospel, and then cast them to the side when their time in the light is finished. Instead, I encourage a return to speculation wherein insiders are treated more as potential points in an argument moreso than otherworldly beings speaking the word of God. PolarPanda has been doing a good job of creating an environment wherein this is true, but I believe that we as a community ought to step it up ourselves, as I see Polar's words being misconstrued and fit to other narratives even when he makes a point to discourage that.
At this point, DLC is anyone's game, and it seems that even insiders are along for the ride with us. So how about instead of worrying, we just all enjoy the ride?
At this point, DLC is anyone's game, and it seems that even insiders are along for the ride with us. So how about instead of worrying, we just all enjoy the ride?