Correction, Lucario has range that can almost match Marth. Shield breaker outranges all of your ground moves except F-smash (which it ties with and outspeeds), and fair and nair outrange all of your aerials (only a little bit mind you). And Marth really has no problems dealing with projectiles, considering that all of his attacks stop them or just plain go through them. And if you are approaching from behind it, then he'll just shield it and then dancingblade afterwards.
Aura sphere isn't used for causing damage, it's used for shutting down enemy approaches. Marth can sit back and jab aura spheres all day while Lucario slowly closes in or retreats. Eventually you're going to have to dodge around them or avoid them if you want to attack, since their hitboxes stay out for so long. Also, Aura sphere is used when an opponent is coming down to the ground from the air. Basically if it's timed right, it severely limits their options as they land. Shield breaker isn't really a threat for Lucario at all. Sure, it has range, but it takes forever to start and has horrible lag. A single shield breaker isn't even that scary to be hit by, and a partially charged one isn't that much better. All Lucario really needs to do is foxtrot backwards and throw an aura sphere at Marth as soon as he sees shield breaker coming. Because if it's spacing you're talking about, Marth is not going to be using Shield breaker at close range, and a fox trot gets you out of that attacking range without much problem. If Marth IS a bit closer, then Lucario has plenty of room to just roll around it. Dancing blade is a threat, but it also has lag and can be punished with patient shielding.
Marth has no problems approaching Lucario. He just has to use ground approaches instead of aerial ones. Walking foward and d-tilt/f-tilting is actually very effective and very safe. And while your f-smash may have the great range, it's not exactly the fastest, or most suprising move. Although it's low ending lag does make it hard to punish, it's still not really "keeping him at bay" as you said.
Marth gimps better and arguably has more control of the field because of his better speed. Seriously, aurasphere is not a problem for Marth and doesn't really stop him. The lingering hitboxes is a good point though, and that is a bit of a pain to get around, but the same can be said of Marth's f-tilt and d-tilt (and Side B spam), except they do more damage and offer more shield pressure.
Only Marth has a better out of shield game, and is very good at punishing dodges, by simply spamming side B. If he sees a dodge, start a side B. If he sees you roll towards him, turn around and side B. If you roll away, run foward and...side B. Seriously, that thing just eats dodges for breakfast, and tacks on 16% while I'm on the subject.
Walking up to Lucario and approaching with Ftilt or Dtilt is a terrible idea. Lucario's roll or even side dodge gets him right behind/in front of Marth and able to punish with a grab or AAA combo perfectly after dodging Ftilt. Dtilt is a bit faster and harder to punish, but it's not going to hit him if he's doing his regular shorthopped Fair>Nair combo. Lucario's own Ftilt also clanks and protects him from those attacks due to the amount of time it stays out, same for Dtilt. Granted that they start up slower than Marth's, but they have less lag. And if he fears a dancing blade punish to his roll, Lucario can just...shield...when he expects an attack. It's not like Marth's grabs actually lead into anything, unlike Lucario's own up and down throws, both of which put the opponent in an excellent position for an aerial tech chase.
And Marth's tilts do not do more damage than Lucario's. At 50%, Lucario's Ftilt already does 13%. At 100%, it does 15% every hit. They don't offer more shield pressure either, since they don't linger (meaning that if they whiff, they really whiff.) and they don't multi-hit like Lucario's Ftilt (which actually can't be properly powershielded due to the double-hitting nature of the attack.) and they have more lag, allowing shielding opponents more time to reposition themselves.
No good Lucario just spams Fsmash on its own. Try approaching Lucario during an AS>Fsmash>AS>Fsmash etc. string. There is hardly any time amidst all the lingering hitboxes to close in any other way than by jumping, and even then, Lucario's Fsmash often hits shorthopping opponents due to its width. Lucario can also retreat while he's doing this by stutter-stepping, which really makes it hard to close in because of the constant change of spacing. (Fsmash's hitbox comes out at 24 frames and stays out for 8 frames. He then has 12 frames of lag before he can do another action. So if Fsmash didn't hit, Marth has 12 frames to close in from that distance and attack him before he launches an aura sphere or rolls/follows up with whatever. The only attack that Marth has that reaches beyond that point is shield breaker, which doesn't have a disjointed hitbox unless it's fully charged, and since Marth's Fsmash starts in 10 frames and is much faster than an uncharged shield breaker...you're not going to punish that Fsmash unless you perfect shielded or side dodged it perfectly. And because it has so much range, you can't roll past Lucario either.)[\QUOTE]
Which is why Marth players honestly shouldn't be dodging that much, considering his out of shield game is better 99% of the time. Instead of spotdodging or rolling out of attack strings, he should be up Bing (works behind him too) through them. Instead of rolling to escape pressure games, he should just drop his shield and side B, or jump backwards out of his shield and airdodge. Marth's defensive game is actually better than Lucario's.
Marth's defense game isn't better than Lucario's. Up B aside, he doesn't have the lingering hitboxes, excellent side dodge, or true combos that make Lucario's defensive game so good. He also doesn't have an annoying projectile, which is critical to Lucario's defensive game.
The thing about Lucario's defense is that a good player will almost constantly be covering himself with Aura, with very few windows for the opponent to attack inbetween. Marth can attack fast and hard, but once again, his single fast hitboxes don't cover him as well as Lucario's attacks do.
And one more point that I'd like to bring up is that Marth kills a lot sooner than most characters, not only because of his edgeguarding, but because of how strong his aerials are and how easy it is to refresh them (two side B strings is 8 attacks!). So killing Lucario early with a nair or fair is not that hard, and even if Lucario does live to a high percent, one tipped downsmash, or even the up version of the side B combo, is enough to take him out.
Lucario also doesn't have too much problem refreshing his attacks either, since he has one of the fastest grab attacks in the game, and usually uses his AAA combo a lot too. It also happens that his primary damage-dealing moves are NOT his primary KO moves (Dair, Ftilt, various combos) so his smash attacks and aura sphere are usually quite fresh. Although yes, Marth does KO sooner in general due to his tippers and powerful aerials. Marth is also more vulnerable to edgeguarding than Lucario is, so while Lucario gets KOed by Marth outright, Lucario has a easier time gimping Marth because he can go so much further off the stage without having to worry about SDing. When it comes to returning to the stage, Lucario's Fair stays out for a whoppin 15 frames. If Lucario uses Fair outside of Marth's Fair range, he'll still hit him because the hitbox of Fair will be out during the time it takes for Marth to start his attack, unless it's like...impeccably timed.
And then get faired after the airdodge because it ends before the airdodge does.
So? Lucario's aerials do this too.
F-air
Complete on: 30
Hitbox out on: 7
Hitbox in on: 22
Except that Lucario's aerials actually true combo into each other, so the opponent can't fast-fall the air dodge to reach the ground before you can Fair them again.
True, but if he DI's away he can avoid the fair>dair combo, and the fair>nair combo won't be killing him...until he's at a high% in which the DI will let him escape the nair.
Still does a lot of damage though, and Lucario can always just do Fair instead of Nair, which doesn't knock back as far and leads to another Fair, which if air dodged leads to Dair or Nair...
Umm..which moves are you talking about? F-tilt, D-tilt, and Fair are completely safe on block. He has no problems pressuring with just these moves, and if he wants to be fancy, Lucario's not fast enough to punish a well spaced shieldbreaker, so he could use that too.
Side B, d-tilt, and shieldbreaker do not require such precision, and are quite spamable.
And at the same time Lucario can't punish a whiffed shieldbreaker, because by the time Lucario gets in range to attack Marth can move again. All you're really saying is that Marth can't throw out random F-smashes like Lucario can, but it's not like he needs to when he has much better moves to randomly throw out.
Not on block, on roll. Lucario's roll is like a spot dodge, with invincibility frames coming out on frame 2, and it's incredibly fast to finish as well. Dodging Ftilt leaves Lucario room to hit with any fist attack. Fair isn't really that safe on block, even though it auto-cancels it can still be shield grabbed just like every other aerial in the game. Lucario is plenty fast enough to punish the lag at the end of shield breaker, especially if he rolls. I really wish someone would get frame data for shield breaker, because I can't find any to back this up, but I'm sure of it. I've been punished many times while using Marth's shield breaker because it has such awful ending lag.
And Marth's f-smash also comes out much faster than Lucario's if you want to put it that way, so Marth can punish a whiffed attack with a f-smash, while Lucario can't. See what I did there?
Lucario doesn't punish with his Fsmash, he traps people with them. Marth can't really do that as well. Besides, Lucario's Ftilt starts just as fast as Marth's Fsmash and is safer on block. And it normally does more damage than an untippered Marth Fsmash.
Marth has his killing power all the time. Blow for Blow, side B beats out everything you said, doing 16-21%, and counting as four seperate moves in the move decay.
Lucario has his chain grab when he's below 50%, and it takes Marth up to 40% with no effort at the start of a stock, then leads into an aerial techchase.
And while killing Lucario with a f-smash at 90 is cool and all, I'd gladly get him up another 40% if it means every attack I have (besides d-tilt and jab), will get him off the stage or kill him.
At this point in time, you do realize that Lucario's Fsmash/Aurasphere/Double Team KOs you at 80%, and his Dair, Ftilt, and Aura Sphere all deal around 22% per hit? On top of that, pretty much every attack that he has will send you flying off the stage for edgeguarding.
But you're forgetting one very important thing. If the Marth player is actually good...he'll space the attack. If you dodge it, the only move you can reach with is f-smash (yes, shieldbreaker has that much range), but your f-smash is too slow to punish him. Shield breaker has very little ending lag btw. If you roll behind him, he has time to roll away himself, or up B or side B you if he expects you to attack him afterwards (both of which come out faster than most of your attacks). Maybe you've been playing bad Marths or something, because Marth's attacks are only safe when properly spaced. But when the Marth is actually good at spacing, he's a beast.
Shield breaker seems to have a lot more ending lag than you're making it look like. I need frame data for this move badly. It also has a very linear hitbox. Lucario can actually avoid it with a shorthop, and shorthops lead into Fair combos.
True, but Marth can side B spike people, footstool jump to dair, reverse up B edgeguard to stage spike opponents, or nair to just plain kill them at that distance. I've also recoverd from under stages by using shield breaker, second jump, side B, up B, in that order. And while Lucario can do that cool wall cling with his up B, he can be hit out of it very easily, while Marth's up B is very hard to edgeguard because of it's invincible start up, it's large attack range, it's large sweetspot range, it's speed, and it's high knockback (for an up B anyway).
Well the thing about the wall cling is that once you hit the wall, you can immediately jump off it and air dodge, making him a lot harder to hit than you'd think. Marth's Shield breaker recovery is quite cool, but what makes Lucario such a good edge guarder is that he can follow the opponent right off the stage (almost into the magnifying glass) Fair them out of their second jump, Fair them again, and then still recover. His Dair is also great because of the way it hangs in the air without hindering his recovery. So he can just hover there and block the opponent's way. He doesn't have the raw KO power than Marth does, but he gets a bit more flexibility when it comes to gimping.
And Lucario can't kill an opponent with a fair from at the ledge at 120%, or a bair or nair at even less. Or up B through their up B. Marth's edgeguarding is done closer to the ledge, but that doesn't make it worse in any way. Just like Lucario, all of his aerials tear through other characters up Bs. But unlike Lucario, All of his aerials have killing power.
Bair, Uair and Dair all have decent killing power at the edge, especially Bair. And they stay out for longer. Lucario's back throw also has the nice property of having almost no ending lag and a very horizontal launch, meaning he can follow the opponent off the edge before they can even jump. He also has Aura sphere to help his edgeguarding out tremendously, and it really does help a lot. He can even charge it at the ledge, preventing an opponent from getting up with anything other than a ledge roll or a ledgedrop, (although this tactic requires a large aura). And of course, he's floatier and can stay airborn for longer, making it easier for him to hit people out of air dodges.
Most top Lucario players agree that he's an even match up for Marth, but most Marth players seem to think otherwise. Although speaking from experience, I honestly believe it's an even match up. Metaknight, Snake and Lucario are the only characters who have hitboxes that can deal with Marth's own.