Guarantees
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: Perfect Attendee (Original Eight), Metroid is still a relevant franchise.
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: Core character in Nintendo’s flagship franchise
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: Core character of a core Nintendo franchise
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: I feel like the marketing of Mii costumes will keep them afloat
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: Even if echoes were pruned like Melee clones for the jump between Melee and Brawl, she’s a popular character from Fire Emblem’s renaissance. Also, she was selected for Awakening’s base game emblem in Engage.
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: Splatoon is too important to exclude
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: The only way she’d be cut is if they demoted her back to Peach’s alt, but I don’t see Sakurai doing that now.
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: Core character of a core Nintendo franchise
Highly Likely (80-90% chance)
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: I could see her getting cut if echoes were being pruned, but the Ballot should help her
Likely (60-80% chance)
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: An odd choice to put in this tier, but I think these characters are highly valued by Sakurai if they were starters in Melee and Brawl and were worked on heavily on the 3DS version. The 3DS is the only reason that they aren’t series staples, kind of like Pokemon Trainer. If I had to put a more specific number, I think 65% sounds about right.
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: She’s a popular character from the Super Mario series, and Sakurai seems to value the puppet gimmick. Her biggest issue stems from potentially conflicting priorities. Like Ice Climbers, I think a 65% chance seems fair.
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: Third parties are hard for me to gauge after the For base game ones and the Street Fighter ones, but Bayonetta helps build relationships with Sega and Nintendo, and she’s probably easier to license. For the moment, I’m leaning towards a 65% chance.
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: She may be a divisive fighter in Ultimate, but ARMS is the most contemporary IP on the current roster. At the moment, I have Min Min at a 70% chance of returning.
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: Like Min Min, Aegis helps keeps things contemporary, and it helps that they’re more popular than Min Min. I have them at a 75% chance.
Slightly North of Toss-Up (55%)
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: Zero Suit Samus feels like a throwaway pick at a first glance, and the other fighters feel like larger priorities than her, but Sakurai seems to find her as an important addition, so I could see her staying. Also, the Armorless Samus has been a recurringMetroid easter egg.
Pure Toss-Up (50%)
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: Sheik has never been cut since Melee, but part of me feels like it deals with her being a tagalong to Zelda after they were added in Melee.
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: This is a really weird character to assess. On the one hand, the Wii series was monumentally successful, and Wii Fit Trainer was one of For’s first reveals. On the other hand, I could see her fall out the wayside given conflicting priorities.
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: Kid Icarus is a dormant franchise, but it is a prominent one for SSB, and Palutena was requested, which may help keep her around.