And now I will.
For some reason, the idea that "All the ports are coming" never seemed to die. Only enough, they somewhat intensified. We were told "There will definitly be a Smash port. That's why they held back on the amiibo." The amiibo were shown off and given a release date. No Smash port (
Source Gaming did a report on them and noted the reason for the delay may have been Cloud). You'd think at this point, we could say "It probably wont happen" but it doesn't seem to die.
And it probably will continue to exist as long as the rumours prove at least semi-valid (which they are), ports do happen (and thrive), a Smash port continues to make about as much sense as a Mario Kart port. I'm not saying optimism isn't playing a part in why everyone might seem so dogmatic, but on the other hand it's not as if nothing has come from the rumours, as is the picture you're painting.
Moreover, you're painting with quite broad strokes here. It's hardly the case that every leaker tied the amiibos and the port together, but more importantly, and this doesn't just apply to you, people really never seem to account that plans change internally all the time. I'm not giving full credence to the leakers, but viewing everything in such a black and white situation is only to the detriment of those who get invested, such as yourself.
Also I do believe something is up with the amiibos. I can only guess as to what, for all I know PushDustin's postulation about Cloud is correct, but I do think there's more than meets the eye with their seemingly arbitrary release. Might the Smash port release with more characters than expected? Might it release later than expected? Might it not release at all? I've no idea. But there's definitely more to the story here. This can't have been what Nintendo was originally intending to do with these three characters.
Now, let's look at sales (
which you can find here). Smash for Wii U sold 5.2 million. Splatoon sold 4.8 million. So Smash only sold 400K more than Splatoon. Mario Kart 8 on the other hand sold 8.31 million selling 3.11 million copies more than Smash Wii U. "But Smashchu, that was only because the 3DS version." OK, Smash 3DS sold 8.72 million and Mario Kart 7 sold 15.22 million. That's 6.5 million copies and represents 75 percent of Smash 3DS's total sales. Even if you were to add the Wii U and the 3DS version's sales, it would still have sold less than Mario Kart 7 by roughly 2 million. Moreover, Mario Kart 8 is the only Mario Kart game since Double Dash to sell less than ANY Smash Brothers title. You can see now why it was so crucial to get Mario Kart on the system.
It's pretty myopic to list all those Smash figures and still not see why Nintendo would
also want Smash on the Switch sooner than later...
The idea that Smash will get a port stems, in part, from a misconception that Smash is just as big as Mario Kart. It's not.
Such rankings are entirely beside the point when both are as profitable as they are. Do you think Nintendo sees the imperative to port on a basis of the performance of one unrelated title, or do you think it's based on the fact that the game in question was also highly profitable and hindered by its platform?
And I'm afraid you're the one with the misconception here. The ranking of the two is largely irrelevant to why people believe a Smash port will follow. It's because both not only share status as triple A Nintendo series limited by the system they were on, but because both fit under the paradigm of piecemeal content being enough to resurge an interest in an already-release game. That's why the two are compared.
When you're a triple-a series... it doesn't really matter where the other series rest in comparison to you for a remake/remaster/port to, generally, make sense.
If Nintendo was a band, Mario Kart would be the lead singer and Smash would be the drummer. Some people know the drummer, but everyone gets starstruck by the lead singer.
So does the drummer not come to the concert just because more people latch onto the singer? Bad analogy.
Mario Kart is far more crucial to Nintendo's success than Smash is. If anything, we'd expect Smash to be a sequel as Splatoon (which only sold 400K less than it and launched 6 months later) is getting one instead of a port. For all intensive purposes, we should expect Smash to follow suit.
...and that's why Mario Kart was first. Like your argument is a good one for why MK should be first. Not why there shouldn't be a Smash port. You literally keep saying how profitable Smash Bros. is. And that Switch ports happen to get the series on the platform asap.
It's also much easier to make a full-fledged sequel to Splatoon than it is for Smash... at least with Sakurai involved.
So there are two major reasons why everyone claims Smash will get a port. First, a Smash port was rumored. But, as I mentioned above, every game was said to be a port, and every rumor was wrong.
No, they weren't. It's a mix of unconfirmed, right, and wrong, and posing it differently is twisting the narrative. MK was rumoured to get a port before the Switch trailer and did, in fact, get a port. That was one true. Splatoon was rumoured to get a port and isn't. Whether Splatoon 2 started life as a deluxe Splatoon or not, the claims were either wrong or outdated enough to be of little reliability. XCX was also claimed to be getting a port but likely won't, due to XC2. The rest, we don't yet know about. Speaking definitively about them, expecting to be right, doesn't make you look clairvoyant or particularly astute, it makes to look like you're speaking out of turn and, in turn, unreliable.
Second, everyone assumes Smash is this massive title. It is a big title, but it's not Mario Kart level. If Nintendo is taking other big series like Splatoon and the 3D Mario games and making new games, then why wouldn't Smash follow suit?
Why not make a new Mario Kart? Because porting is cheaper and faster. And clearly still profitable nonetheless. It also wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo was doubling down on getting lots of software out early in the Switch's lifespan.
And really, you're talking some nonsense with this it has to be bigger than MK "rule". You are aware titles like Xenoblade, DKCR and Hyrule Warriors got ports this past gen, right? None of those are even as big as Smash, let alone MK. It's because Nintendo wants to expose them to a new/different audience and garner sales from people who wouldn't otherwise own the system, but still be interested in the game. That's why pretty much all ports exist.
Additionally, Mario Kart 8 was released within 2 months of the system's launch. If Smash was being ported, why haven't we seen it yet. Why isn't it out now?
Probably because it would sap attention away from ARMS whereas MK does not overlap much in terms of targeted demographics. Nintendo is literally pushing another, smaller, character-driven fighting game right now, and has been since January. Think about it for a minute.
Also it could be because it's not planned to be launching in the coming months... ports don't necessarily need excess promotional time...
In a years time, Sakurai's team made 7 fighters, 8 stages and a bunch of Mii Fighter costumes. It's been a year and a few months. Mario Kart wasn't even shown at the event (outside of simple gameplay demostrations). Why do we think that Nintendo is going have this big reveal to show off a Smash port? They didn't do it for their biggest series. Why would they do it for Smash.
You're talking about E3, right? It seems plainly evident why Nintendo didn't show MK. The Switch trailer came out in September, and the game launched in April. There was no E3 between those times. If there was, it would've been there.
And why would they do it for Smash? Because Smash is a big series and E3 is a big platform... and the timing would be conducive for it. I'm not saying they will, unlike you I'm distinguishing between what I know and what I guess, but if they should, there is perfectly plausible reasoning.
Time converts more than reason. As time has gone on, more and more people have come to beleive it will be a new game. Each new system has had a NEW Smash Bros game. I don't see why the Switch will be different.
And up until now you could've said the same for Mario Kart. It'd be very similar reasoning. Even with different sales figures.
