I always find it funny when someone responds to a sentence with a paragraph. One thing people on Smashoards ever figured out is that if you want to respond to an argument, you should probably respond to the whole thing instead of doing word soup. This is one of those cases.
And it probably will continue to exist as long as the rumours prove at least semi-valid (which they are), ports do happen (and thrive), a Smash port continues to make about as much sense as a Mario Kart port. I'm not saying optimism isn't playing a part in why everyone might seem so dogmatic, but on the other hand it's not as if nothing has come from the rumours, as is the picture you're painting.
Moreover, you're painting with quite broad strokes here. It's hardly the case that every leaker tied the amiibos and the port together, but more importantly, and this doesn't just apply to you, people really never seem to account that plans change internally all the time. I'm not giving full credence to the leakers, but viewing everything in such a black and white situation is only to the detriment of those who get invested, such as yourself.
Also I do believe something is up with the amiibos. I can only guess as to what, for all I know PushDustin's postulation about Cloud is correct, but I do think there's more than meets the eye with their seemingly arbitrary release. Might the Smash port release with more characters than expected? Might it release later than expected? Might it not release at all? I've no idea. But there's definitely more to the story here. This can't have been what Nintendo was originally intending to do with these three characters.
First, the rumors weren't semi-valid. They were just flat out wrong. Laura Dale (who was the source of these rumors primarily) was wrong about almost everything. Most of what she got right was from images.
I've done this too.
Your argument is "Ports real" and tries to work backwards. You say "What if the plans change." OK, what if there never was a plan in the first place. The amiibo could have also been delayed because Cloud had legal issues (also why he doesn't have an English voice or new music like the other guest characters). Occam's Razor. It's more likely it was legal issues and not some magic port. You say there is "more to the story." Well, what is it. You're basically making leaps of faith.
It's pretty myopic to list all those Smash figures and still not see why Nintendo would also want Smash on the Switch sooner than later...
If you had looked at the argument as a whole instead of in this weird lego mess, you'd realize the argument is that Mario Kart is more important and crucial to Nintendo's success. Smash has never been on the same level.
Smash 4 sold a little bit under 14 million. If you account for double purchases, you would probably have sales around 11 million, which isn't that much of a difference from Brawl. Mario Kart 8 sold 8 million, but Mario Kart 7 sold 15 million, about a 7 million difference. A reason Deluxe can exist (besides the whole the director of the series is working on AMRS) is because Mario has that cross over appeal. Deluxe could do better. There is not much evidence Smash would do better.
Such rankings are entirely beside the point when both are as profitable as they are. Do you think Nintendo sees the imperative to port on a basis of the performance of one unrelated title, or do you think it's based on the fact that the game in question was also highly profitable and hindered by its platform?
And I'm afraid you're the one with the misconception here. The ranking of the two is largely irrelevant to why people believe a Smash port will follow. It's because both not only share status as triple A Nintendo series limited by the system they were on, but because both fit under the paradigm of piecemeal content being enough to resurge an interest in an already-release game. That's why the two are compared.
When you're a triple-a series... it doesn't really matter where the other series rest in comparison to you for a remake/remaster/port to, generally, make sense.
OK, then why is Splatoon a sequel instead of a port. It's a AAA title (outsold MK8 weekly sales). It fits under the paradigm of piecemeal content. It's comparable, but it's getting a sequel.
So does the drummer not come to the concert just because more people latch onto the singer? Bad analogy.
No, its people like and know the singer more than the drummer. How did you not get this analogy?
...and that's why Mario Kart was first. Like your argument is a good one for why MK should be first. Not why there shouldn't be a Smash port. You literally keep saying how profitable Smash Bros. is. And that Switch ports happen to get the series on the platform asap.
It's also much easier to make a full-fledged sequel to Splatoon than it is for Smash... at least with Sakurai involved.
This is some serious mental gymnastics.
You're saying that Mario Kart came "first" because it sold more. But this assumes that Smash port is going to happen at all and it also assumes that sales are the main factor for why one title gets released before another. But then why would Mario come out so late compared to other games.
And how do you know its easier to make a sequel to Splatoon. Did you talk to Sakurai? Does your uncle work at Nintendo? In order for your argument to make sense, you have to make all these far-reaching assumptions.
No, they weren't. It's a mix of unconfirmed, right, and wrong, and posing it differently is twisting the narrative. MK was rumoured to get a port before the Switch trailer and did, in fact, get a port. That was one true. Splatoon was rumoured to get a port and isn't. Whether Splatoon 2 started life as a deluxe Splatoon or not, the claims were either wrong or outdated enough to be of little reliability. XCX was also claimed to be getting a port but likely won't, due to XC2. The rest, we don't yet know about. Speaking definitively about them, expecting to be right, doesn't make you look clairvoyant or particularly astute, it makes to look like you're speaking out of turn and, in turn, unreliable.
So we have two wrong and one right so this means a Smash port could still happen. You'd ever think that because they were saying every game gets ported that they may have been right about one of them. And keep in mind, we had footage of both Splatoon and MK8 but they claimed both would be ported. Your reasoning also ignores that the rumors were wrong about everything else. Again, this is reaching.
Why not make a new Mario Kart? Because porting is cheaper and faster. And clearly still profitable nonetheless. It also wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo was doubling down on getting lots of software out early in the Switch's lifespan.
The director of Mario Kart is working on ARMS.
And really, you're talking some nonsense with this it has to be bigger than MK "rule". You are aware titles like Xenoblade, DKCR and Hyrule Warriors got ports this past gen, right? None of those are even as big as Smash, let alone MK. It's because Nintendo wants to expose them to a new/different audience and garner sales from people who wouldn't otherwise own the system, but still be interested in the game. That's why pretty much all ports exist.
Probably because it would sap attention away from ARMS whereas MK does not overlap much in terms of targeted demographics. Nintendo is literally pushing another, smaller, character-driven fighting game right now, and has been since January. Think about it for a minute.
Also it could be because it's not planned to be launching in the coming months... ports don't necessarily need excess promotional time...
So you clearly missed what I was saying here.
The reason you do the port is to get something out quick. This is why MK8 came out within 2 months. By the time a Smash port would come out, it would be at a time when consumers would consider it lazy. You don't want to buy ports in September. You want some new games. If consumers wanted Wii U ports, they would have bought a Wii U. Mario Kart at least has shown to sell a crap ton of units. Smash has never sold 15 million let alone 30 million. Mario Kart has that crossover appeal. The window to which consumers would be OK with ports is about to pass. It would be at the point to where Nintendo would just be better served to take 6 months to a year and make a full fledged game.
Also, if ARMS was the reason for not showing the port, then why would they show it at E3. ARMS wont be out until after E3. So if the sole reason Smash hasn't been shown is because of ARMS, then why show it before ARMS is out.
You're talking about E3, right? It seems plainly evident why Nintendo didn't show MK. The Switch trailer came out in September, and the game launched in April. There was no E3 between those times. If there was, it would've been there.
I mean, there wasn't like this huge event where Nintendo showed off all their upcoming games for the system or anything.
So, let's break down this argument. Smash port is going to happen because Smash is just as big as Mario Kart. There is more to the amiibo story, maybe. The rumors were partly true so it could still happen (even though they weren't as I had to pay $300 with no 3D Mario). Splatoon 2 exist because Splatoon is so easy to make; my uncle told me so. Mario Kart 8 just came first because it sold and Nintendo said that Smash should be held off and not shown until E3 because it sold less. Nintendo makes all of their releases based on units moved. The only reason we didn't see it is because ARMS is out and Smash would compete with it. Smash will be shown at E3 even though ARMS comes out after E3 but that doesn't matter. Also, the Nintendo Presentation doesn't exist and if it did exist we would have seen Mario Kart 8 deluxe there. Also, drummers go to shows.
This is the number of assumptions you have to make for a Smash port
A big reason you should respond to my argument as a whole is because clearly you missed a lot. Like, I don't know, the fact that the director of MK8 is working on AMRS and maybe that's why they are making Deluxe. He even said it was due to trying to get it out ASAP (rather than making it from scratch) which is also why it came out in April. But you skipped that part because it doesn't support your wild theories.
The arguments for a Smash port always fall flat because you have to make a lot of assumptions for very basic questions. Why are the amiibo just coming out? "Oh, there is more to it." Weren't all the rumors that claimed there was a Smash port all wrong." Well, they weren't all wrong (
don't click this link)" Why hasn't Nintendo shown it off. "Ohh, its ARMS." OK, why should we expect Nintendo to show off Smash port at E3 when they didn't show off the bigger game at their presentation? "Its not the same." The answer with the fewest variables is the best one. There is no port.
To close, what proponents of a Smash port don't ever ask is "Why doesn't Nintendo just make a new Smash Bros?" The DLC ended in February. It will be almost a year and a half since the game finished. Why not just go a few more months and make a complete game. Even with the limited staff, they still added 7 characters for the DLC. From now until the DLC conclusions has been longer than the development of the DLC. A Smash game usually has about 13 new fighters. If they are making it off the same engine, it wouldn't take that long (or at least not as long as other games in the series have been). You also have Nintendo trying to sell you online. Wouldn't a new Smash be a great way to promote that? Nintendo has always teased a new Smash game about a year and a half before it releases. Why should we assume that Nintendo would break trend now?
I say time converts more than reason because as time has gone on, there is less reason to believe the Smash port. The rumors were fake. The amiibos have a release date. We have yet to see anything for this game. Why should we believe it exists?