I think it's a -1, but 55-45. Me and Reflex just played 4 sets with all of the videos at this past tournament >.>. It really depends on the stage also if it's 55-45, or 50-50. I think overall with all of the CP options you guys have and if we only have one ban then it's definitely a -1. I think you're overrating tires a bit, pwneroni, they can definitely help you, but Diddy can take control of them also if you're not careful with them. Diddy's item control and frame data for items is better than Wario's so it's not too hard for us to use them. Wario can just pretty much play a poke game against Diddy and just weave in and out of his 'zone' until the Diddy tries to actually doing something against it where Wario can punish and just does that until he gets a waft.
We do have some air release stuff, but we can't force an air release unless we're over the edge which easier to get than some characters since we can banana lock you to the edge. We can do any aerial we want to you, and yeah we can diddy hump you guys. Usually we can follow that up with a footstool, but wario's aerial mobility is too good where if he just holds away from the stage we can't get it. Then just bike back up (NOT into it, pwneroni >.>). I'll usually just do our attack option out of it which is 15%.
Wario has some nice gimping stuff on Diddy also. Nair/fair are your best aerials, fart is good too, it's kind of a guessing game though depending on if/how long we stall our barrels before trying to get back to the edge.
Also, for stages I think our best ones is FD (obv, banana lock to the edge > spike or something too good), SV, YI, and Halberd. YI and Halberd the giant middle platform hurts your approaching and poke game and allows us to camp with bananas and stuff. Halberd also helps us get kills on you guys since you're so heavy. Both stages have some small slopes that we can get some air releases off of, although I think the halberd slopes are big enough that they hurt us more than hurt you, YI it doesn't affect us as much. The 2nd part of Halberd if very big with no slopes, but still has the giant middle platform so that helps us a lot.
so ya -1 your favor. *waits for vids from past weekend*