Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[DarkShadow20]

I can't see Smash only given a window of 4-6 months to release, even Ultimate had longer than that and post-E3 was on the back-end of that (6 months).

Assuming next Smash falls back on the old slow burn routine and doesn't drop their entire veteran roster from the get-go, which seems far more likely for a roster that is not founded on Everyone is Here, we'd probably be looking at over one year of buildup to release. Admittedly I'm not bothering to watch the video, so maybe they're proposing that the next game is another Ultimate, but even so they'd have to be delivering info pretty much nonstop with little breathing room to build excitement around the new content.

Yeah true, I would think it would be announced prior to that, like in a June/September direct. I don't think 2026 would be too soon for a release however. That would be over 7 years since Ultimate came out, and Sakurai has been working on a game for the past two years. And Smash has always been announced and/or released within the first two years of a console's release.

 

[CannonStreak]

Another thing I wanted to say; the reveal and release window for Ultimate was only closer compared to Brawl's and Smash 4's because they were bringing everyone back, which took a lot of work, and I don't think the reveal to release window for Ultimate would be enough to show everyone over time in a Dojo or Smash 4 website styled way, anyway. I don't think Smash 6 has the same reason to have a closer reveal to release window like Ultimate's anyway.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

They also said Subspace cutscenes would return. Doesn't Sakurai hate those kinds of things?

That was the biggest giveaway that this leak was fake to me.

Sakurai still holds a grudge about the Brawl cutscenes being leaked. We've seen it in his YouTube channel.

At this point, I'm confident we'll never get Subspace again for as long as Sakurai breathes.

 

[CannonStreak]

That was the biggest giveaway that this leak was fake to me.

Sakurai still holds a grudge about the Brawl cutscenes being leaked. We've seen it in his YouTube channel.

At this point, I'm confident we'll never get Subspace again for as long as Sakurai breathes.

That video he said it in was his last video, right? If so, it is recent enough that it probably still holds, does it not?

 

[BuckleyTim]

What a boring fake leak. Says nothing about anything interesting and is still unbelievable because of the subspace comments.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

That video he said it in was his last video, right? If so, it is recent enough that it probably still holds, does it not?

All of them were recorded in late 2021/early 2022, iirc. Basically the few months he had of free time between Ultimate and his next project.

But if he didn't change his tune in over a decade, I doubt he ever will.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Smash has always been announced and/or released within the first two years of a console's release.

I think this is the biggest evidence that the 2022 Project Sakurai is working on could potentially be Smash, since the timeline is spot on for a 3-4 year dev cycle coinciding with a Holiday 2026 release to match Smashes norm. If it isn't, the Switch 2 is going to be likely the first Nintendo console to get a Smash game late, which is going to be hell for the comment sections of each Nintendo Direct.

 

[CannonStreak]

All of them were recorded in late 2021/early 2022, iirc. Basically the few months he had of free time between Ultimate and his next project.

But if he didn't change his tune in over a decade, I doubt he ever will.

That is exactly the kind of thing I was trying to say. Those years were that close to now. I don't think he has changed at all by now, either.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I think this is the biggest evidence that the 2022 Project Sakurai is working on could potentially be Smash, since the timeline is spot on for a 3-4 year dev cycle coinciding with a Holiday 2026 release to match Smashes norm. If it isn't, the Switch 2 is going to be likely the first Nintendo console to get a Smash game late, which is going to be hell for the comment sections of each Nintendo Direct.

The deal with Studio S as well as Harada saying the FP2 team would be moved to Tekken 8 is what makes me concerned that the 2022 project plan isn't Smash.

The gap in between SSBU updates matches how long the Smash team would've been working on TK8 instead, and Studio N and S were founded in late 2023, almost two years after Smash 6 would've hypothetically started development.

 

[SharkLord]

I think this is the biggest evidence that the 2022 Project Sakurai is working on could potentially be Smash, since the timeline is spot on for a 3-4 year dev cycle coinciding with a Holiday 2026 release to match Smashes norm. If it isn't, the Switch 2 is going to be likely the first Nintendo console to get a Smash game late, which is going to be hell for the comment sections of each Nintendo Direct.

From a quick search by the wiki, most Smash games only have about 2-ish years of development. I could see Nintendo and Sakurai wanting some extra time in the oven for Smash 6 - Use the extra time to make a game that can properly follow up Ultimate, develop a good selection of veterans and newcomers, even in another EiH isnt practical, maybe figure out some new modes or a different take on a story mode, or something - But I wouldn't hedge my bets on it yet, given past precedent.

Currently, I'm of the mind that it's an unrelated game like Kid Icarus: Uprising that will be a launch year title, and Smash 6 will follow two or three years later.

 

[ninjahmos]

You know what's a Mario stage I'd love to see in Smash, but probably won't make it in? Freezeflame Galaxy

OK, so we all know Mario has a tendency to use ice and lava levels, and at this point, they've been done to death. Smash, on the other hand, has quite a few lava stages, but not enough ice stages IMO. That, and Smash has way too many stages resembling first levels, especially Mario.

So, I'm thinking "Why not combine ice and lava as a Smash stage?"

 

[Dinoman96]

The deal with Studio S as well as Harada saying the FP2 team would be moved to Tekken 8 is what makes me concerned that the 2022 project plan isn't Smash.

The gap in between SSBU updates matches how long the Smash team would've been working on TK8 instead, and Studio N and S were founded in late 2023, almost two years after Smash 6 would've hypothetically started development.

Were Studio 2/S actually founded in 2023, though?

Studio 2/Studio S | バンダイナムコスタジオ

バンダイナムコスタジオ内で受託開発案件に特化した「バンダイナムコスタジオ 第2スタジオ/Sスタジオ」公式サイトです。『大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ SPECIAL』『マリオカート8 デラックス』『マリオカート ツアー』 等手がけたタイトルの紹介や社員インタビューなどを掲載し、志高いクリエイター達の参戦を待っています！

www.bandainamcostudios.com

I'm looking at their website and it mentions all of the games they've worked for Nintendo on over the years, like ARMS, MK8/MK8 Deluxe, Mario Sports Superstars, and of course our beloved Smash. This makes it seem like "Studio 2/S" were technically already a thing prior to 2023, no?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Were Studio 2/S actually founded in 2023, though?

Studio 2/Studio S | バンダイナムコスタジオ

バンダイナムコスタジオ内で受託開発案件に特化した「バンダイナムコスタジオ 第2スタジオ/Sスタジオ」公式サイトです。『大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ SPECIAL』『マリオカート8 デラックス』『マリオカート ツアー』 等手がけたタイトルの紹介や社員インタビューなどを掲載し、志高いクリエイター達の参戦を待っています！

www.bandainamcostudios.com

I'm looking at their website and it mentions all of the games they've worked for Nintendo on over the years, like ARMS, MK8/MK8 Deluxe, Mario Sports Superstars, and of course our beloved Smash. This makes it seem like "Studio 2/S" were technically already a thing prior to 2023, no?

Yes, because it's the same people that helped out Nintendo with a lot of projects over the years.

2023 is the year when they were finally given proper team names.

 

[Gorgonzales]

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

I assume the leak he is talking about has been covered here, and I don't put much stock in it, however he said his own source said Smash 6 would be announced this holiday and would be released in March 2026. He also said he heard Waluigi and Geno would be two characters added.

Does anyone know if he has correctly leaked anything in the past? Since he's a part of the competitive Smash scene, I could see him having a legit source.

God I hate HBox's clickbaity-as-hell videos.

It's hilarious how the guy who created this rumor seemingly knows nothing about game development or Sakurai's opinions. It's genuinely astonishing to me how something this poorly-written spread like wildfire on the internet because nobody has critical thinking skills nowadays.

 

[Dinoman96]

Yes, because it's the same people that helped out Nintendo with a lot of projects over the years.

2023 is just the year when they were finally given proper team names.

Ah well, then there we go haha.

That being said, I suppose Nelson does have a point in that it's kinda odd in that despite Sakurai supposedly jumping straight onto the next Smash in 2022, Harada claimed that the remaining Ultimate dev team would be disbanded and relocated to work on Tekken 8 (which didn't come out until early 2024). I guess that's the one thing that could point towards him making a non-Smash project...

Though personally like I said before, I'd be pretty damn surprised if Nintendo wasn't pushing to get a Smash out somewhere within the first two years of the Switch 2's life span, just as, well, they've done with Brawl, Smash 4 (Wii U at least) and Ultimate and their respective platforms.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Ah well, then there we go haha.

That being said, I suppose Nelson does have a point in that it's kinda odd in that despite Sakurai supposedly jumping straight onto the next Smash in 2022, Harada claimed that the remaining Ultimate dev team would be disbanded and relocated to work on Tekken 8 (which didn't come out until early 2024). I guess that's the one thing that could point towards him making a non-Smash project...

Though personally like I said before, I'd be pretty damn surprised if Nintendo wasn't pushing to get a Smash out somewhere within the first two years of the Switch 2's life span, just as, well, they've done with Brawl, Smash 4 (Wii U at least) and Ultimate.

Yeah, the team is the biggest giveaway for me. The fact that they would have needed to get an entirely new team for Sakurai's project makes me think there's even a non-zero chance of it being a non-Nintendo project, which is a possibility that I don't think anyone acknowledged but can still be very true due to his position as a freelancer.

Otherwise, why wouldn't he get the team he was used to work it for literally an entire decade?

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Good catch on the reveal to release window, Louie! That said, I don't think the time between reveal and release will be that long anyway. I think it would be more like Brawl's and Smash 4's.

I mean Smash 4's marketing cycle was from June 2013 to when it released on 3DS in September 2014, so it was more than a year by a bit.

 

[CannonStreak]

I mean Smash 4's marketing cycle was from June 2013 to when it released on 3DS in September 2014, so it was more than a year by a bit.

Yeah, I know. I guess what I am saying is that Smash 4 and Brawl’s windows of reveal to release were still more than Ultimate’s, and I don’t think Smash 6 will be like Ultimate in that regard.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I mean Smash 4's marketing cycle was from June 2013 to when it released on 3DS in September 2014, so it was more than a year by a bit.

It actually lasted even longer than that. We got the 50-Fact Extravanganza in October entirely about Smash Wii U's content (it's also where we learned Mewtwo would be DLC!) and a random Duck Hunt trailer in November.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Legends Arceus had starters from Generations 2, 5, and 7.

It’s reasonable to think they’ll follow suit.

Ah yes, a pattern of one. The most reliable of precedents.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

It actually lasted even longer than that. We got the 50-Fact Extravanganza in October entirely about Smash Wii U's content (it's also where we learned Mewtwo would be DLC!) and a random Duck Hunt trailer in November.

Very true...

oh god we're gonna get something in like the april direct or the june summer direct for the marketing cycle to last until holiday 2026, aren't we...

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Nice marketing sure but means nothing past 1998



Fan Polls aren't exactly good judgements of popularity due to a variety of factors like sample bias. Again, most of Crash's hype is just banwagoning Banjo's. Guarantee a significant drop in current times if polls were conducted today.

"If Nintendo wants a character in the game they’ll get them in the game, Square Enix has 4 unique characters already, so 4 Microsoft characters isn’t a stretch at all"

This was never a question of contention. Irrelevant to my point. The point if any of those 4 Microsoft characters would be Crash compared to their much more popular and successful IPs like Halo, Overwatch, COD etc which very unlikely.

If Nintendo actually believed that hyperbole you had for Crash, he would've been in right now/

"A lot of people still don’t see Sony owned characters as a viable option at this point" Lot of those people are ignorant of character selection or even gaming history. Why would Sony owned reps be unviable compared to any other third party rep?

Ally is lot more relevant and popular than Crash probably ever was. Didn't TLOU sell 30 million?

Crash started getting a lot of requests after the series was revived with the N Sane Trilogy, and the requests for him never dwindled, they only grew, it has nothing to do with Banjo, if any character saw a large uptick in demand because of Banjo’s inclusion it was Master Chief.

The LOU series as a whole with all its remasters and remakes have sold 30 million units, the Crash Bandicoot series has sold over 70 million units, 20 million of which was from the N. Sane trilogy, selling more than the PS3 and PS4 versions of Last of Us combined. Also why are you acting like the series isn’t relevant, it wasn’t that long ago since the last Crash game.

Do you actually think Overwatch and COD are more likely than Crash because of sales? Do you think a guest character either has to have strong ties to Nintendo or be from one of the companies best selling series, do you really think their isn’t any more that goes into consideration than that? It almost sounds like you have a disdain for Crash or something.

“They would have done it by now” is a horrible argument that could be said about any character, as if there aren’t many factors that need to be considered, and as if they don’t have a limit of things they can add. It should be noted that when it came to adding characters due to their fan demand in Ultimate’s DLC like Banjo and Sora they used the Fighter Ballot as a reference, so characters who saw a large uptick in fan demand after the ballot like Dante, Master Chief, Doom Slayer and Crash were seemingly not on the table at the time they decided on the characters.

Also saying people who think a Sony character isn’t viable are ignorant, then asking why they would think that implies to me that you are in fact ignorant of the reasons why, so maybe don’t be so judgmental of them.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

The LOU series as a whole with all its remasters and remakes have sold 30 units

Damn, only 30 units? That's pretty pathetic

 

[Guynamednelson]

Damn, only 30 units? That's pretty pathetic

I like to exaggerate how unpopular it and Horizon really are but even I know that's too far.

 

[Louie G.]

Do you actually think Overwatch and COD are more likely than Crash because of sales? It almost sounds like you have a disdain for Crash or something.

Call of Duty probably not, but I think Overwatch is a perfectly viable choice that people just don't like to talk about because of their own disdain.

I'm not saying I expect Overwatch to get a character, but they have a colorful cast with obvious moveset potential that have been heavily marketed and merchandised for nearly a decade now. The game pioneered the wave of hero shooters that we are still feeling today and Overwatch 2 is still active and seeing a decently sized playerbase. Realistically someone like Tracer has reached Crash Bandicoot's level of recognizability and popularity years ago, at least among those who still play video games.

The community just favors seniority and characters with mascot appeal so they often neglect more contemporary success from certain characters or see it as less legitimate. Especially if it obscures a cartoony platforming mascot that they see as more "fitting" for Smash by proxy (Crash or Tracer, Rayman or Ezio, etc).

I don't particularly love Overwatch either, and I sure as hell don't love Activision-Blizzard, so I have little stake in this but want to acknowledge that pretty much the only reason we don't talk about OW in Smash is because we don't want to. Do I think they're more likely than Crash? I dunno, probably not, but it's not so ridiculous to be put on the level of something like Call of Duty. OW at least lends itself to Smash in very obvious, fitting ways.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Seeing the Overwatch talk reminds me of the bat**** insane theory that Tracer was originally planned for FP1 before being replaced last minute by Byleth.

 

[SharkLord]

Seeing the Overwatch talk reminds me of the bat**** insane theory that Tracer was originally planned for FP1 before being replaced last minute by Byleth.

No, they're a replacement for Monster Hunter

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Call of Duty probably not, but I think Overwatch is a perfectly viable choice that people just don't like to talk about because of their own disdain.

I'm not saying I expect Overwatch to get a character, but they have a colorful cast with obvious moveset potential that have been heavily marketed and merchandised for nearly a decade now. The game pioneered the wave of hero shooters that we are still feeling today and Overwatch 2 is still active and seeing a decently sized playerbase. Realistically someone like Tracer has reached Crash Bandicoot's level of recognizability and popularity years ago, at least among those who still play video games.

The community just favors seniority and characters with mascot appeal so they often neglect more contemporary success from certain characters or see it as less legitimate. Especially if it obscures a cartoony platforming mascot that they see as more "fitting" for Smash by proxy (Crash or Tracer, Rayman or Ezio, etc).

I don't particularly love Overwatch either, and I sure as hell don't love Activision-Blizzard, so I have little stake in this but want to acknowledge that pretty much the only reason we don't talk about OW in Smash is because we don't want to. Do I think they're more likely than Crash? I dunno, probably not, but it's not so ridiculous to be put on the level of something like Call of Duty. OW at least lends itself to Smash in very obvious, fitting ways.

To add a bit of fuel to the fire, remember how was added in part of being the top selling shooter at the time?

Well....after PUBG: Battlegrounds (which isn't likely to be featured in Smash), Overwatch 1 is the top seller now.

That being said I have zero interest in an Overwatch character outside Mei because that'd be funny.

 

[ninjahmos]

Seeing the Overwatch talk reminds me of the bat**** insane theory that Tracer was originally planned for FP1 before being replaced last minute by Byleth.

Is it just me or does it feel like some people will come up with any excuse as to why their favorite character isn't in Smash when it could just be popularity/relevancy, budgetary or business reasons?

Or maybe Nintendo and/or Sakurai just isn't interested in said character.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Is it just me or does it feel like some people will come up with any excuse as to why their favorite character isn't in Smash when it could just be popularity/relevancy, budgetary or business reasons?

Or maybe Nintendo and/or Sakurai just isn't interested in said character.

And of course, making Fire Emblem the scapegoat because that's the easiest target for why [favorite character] didn't make it in.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Realistically Microsoft's next character could be a ton of things since they've acquired so much recently between Bethesda and Activison Blizzard. Doomguy, Master Chief, Dragonborn, Crash, a character from Overwatch theoretically...

It just depends on where their priorities lie, which I feel like would more likely lie with Doomguy (who got a Mii Costume already and is the father of the FPS genre alongside Wolfenstein) or Master Chief (essentially Microsoft's mascot like Crash was for Sony at one time).

Master Chief ESPECIALLY benefits if there are indeed plans to bring the Master Chief Collection to Switch 2, and Doom: The Dark Ages is also likely to come to the platform alongside 2016 and Eternal being on Switch.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Remember how Ryu Hayabusa was supposed to be Challenger Pack 5, but had to be swapped with Byleth (who was supposed to be in Vol. 2) because....reasons?

 

[Ivander]

Seeing the Overwatch talk reminds me of the bat**** insane theory that Tracer was originally planned for FP1 before being replaced last minute by Byleth.

I mean, I can understand people using Monster Hunter because of the different weapons, being able to be male and female and, arguably, the Up-B Whipsword grapple that one could say was meant to be for a Wirebug recovery that animation-wise, can look similar to Byleth's whipsword grapple(as Wirebugs involve using bright light wires to grab the bugs and it's done very whip-like).
Tracer however, why? The only thing Byleth and Tracer have in common is the time travel back a few seconds gimmick.

 

[Louie G.]

Not to rub salt in the wound, but does anyone remember the Crash Bandicoot "five year plan" that included Crash in Smash as a bullet point?

Pretty funny to reflect on - whether it was real or not, I think the takeaway is just because a company wants it to happen doesn't mean it will. At this point I'm not sure how much bearing "they want it to happen" has on any character unless it's genuinely up in the air. I feel like a studio wanting their mascot characters in the biggest gaming crossover ever is a no-brainer after five games worth of credibility behind it.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I mean, I can understand people using Monster Hunter because of the different weapons, being able to be male and female and, arguably, the Up-B Whipsword grapple that one could say was meant to be for a Wirebug recovery that animation-wise, can look similar to Byleth's whipsword grapple(as Wirebugs involve using bright light wires to grab the bugs and it's done very whip-like).
Tracer however, why? The only thing Byleth and Tracer have in common is the time travel back a few seconds gimmick.

The idea is that controversy with Blizzard at the time forced a last minute removal and Byleth was added instead because filler Nintendo character.

Not that they had connections to each other.

 

[Ivander]

Actually, thinking about it, if Alear got in, it'd be hilarious if people started posting crazy theories about how Goku was going to get in, but was replaced by Alear and his attacks were used for Alear cause they use martial arts and a Kamehameha beam-like attack.

 

[ninjahmos]

It's pretty stupid and childish (then again, so is Smash speculation in general), but I can kinda see why you'd make Fire Emblem the scapegoat. Obviously, the next game has to have Alear, because it wouldn't be Smash without a new Fire Emblem character. Still, the amount of fighters the series has in Smash is…a little oversaturated.

I just hope they don't overdo it the next game around (assuming it's not an Ultimate port), especially with how many swordfighters Smash already has. Like, I get that it's one of Nintendo's most popular franchises, but c'mon man.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Actually, thinking about it, if Alear got in, it'd be hilarious if people started posting crazy theories about how Goku was going to get in, but was replaced by Alear and his attacks were used for Alear cause they use martial arts and a Kamehameha beam-like attack.

Would still make more sense than the Tracer/Byleth thing.

Like you said, all they share in common is the time travel, and that wasn't even a part of Byleth's moveset.

Though I wouldn't be shocked if Divine Pulse was planned but hardware limitations kinda messed with that. That's 100% speculation with the only source being "I made it the **** up", however,

 

[AreJay25]

Since we're reminiscing about old leaks/theories, remember that one "leak" where people used Google's engine or something to essentially deduce the rest of FP1? IIRC it was supposed to be Banjo, Doom Slayer, Hayabusa and Artorias from Dark Souls.

Honestly, would have been a sick pass, but in hindsight it's kinda funny that it even picked up traction in the first place. Why would Google of all things have that information in the open lmao?

 

[mynameisBlade]

It's pretty stupid and childish (then again, so is Smash speculation in general), but I can kinda see why you'd make Fire Emblem the scapegoat. Obviously, the next game has to have Alear, because it wouldn't be Smash without a new Fire Emblem character. Still, the amount of fighters the series has in Smash is…a little oversaturated.

I just hope they don't overdo it the next game around (assuming it's not an Ultimate port), especially with how many swordfighters Smash already has. Like, I get that it's one of Nintendo's most popular franchises, but c'mon man.

I'd love if they just made Marth the base fighter and his pallets were the alternate characters. Marth base - Roy - Lucina - Chrom - etc. I just don't see the point of them being separate characters just because the moves have different properties and a different animation here or there. I still say Roy is a 100% Marth clone until I see a treatment similar to what they did with Ganon in Ultimate and even then he still shares moves with Captain Falcon.