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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Undella2

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I laughed and I agree with you - but to play devil's advocate, or just to poke at the question: what criteria still exist at this point?

Doing some sort of Historical Impact * Nintendo-Relevance * (other smaller factors / 2) sort of equation used to be commonly accepted as some sort of vague guideline that was at least useful enough for speculation. I don't want to use specific examples because I'm moreso trying to get at the larger point, but if Genshin Impact, LoL, FNAF, etc etc etc are all valid - why does the line necessarily stop at GTA? The only concrete rule that people seem to mostly agree on in any sense is that it should be contained to video games.
To be honest? It's kinda just... vibes, really. If we're gonna have more "person with gun" characters, Lara Croft, Nathan Drake, and Leon Kennedy would all, I dunno, fit better vibes-wise I guess? Like, their games have a bit of whimsy that GTA doesn't seem to have, so to speak.

It's like the saying that goes something like "I couldn't give you an exact definition (in this case, of what video game characters could "fit" in smash), but I'd know it when I see it"

...mostly, anyway.
 

dream1ng

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And...what exactly is the defining line between those two sets of games?

What makes Triforce Heroes mainline, but Crossbow Training not?

I would not have called ANY of those "mainline" Zelda games.
Disagreeing with Nintendo again, I see.

Reworking Tour content is the reason they were willing to try such an unproven release model. If it wasn't successful, no big deal. Because it didn't take a ton of resources to develop.
Do you know what you're arguing? What release model do you think Smash will take? Waiting five years to get DLC? Why would they do that? The only reason it happened with 8D was because Tour provided more content. The next Smash will get content right away. As will the next Kart.

Or are you using the BCP to justify just making the next game the last game but with more content, even though that's not what the BCP is, it's not why it was made, it wouldn't provide comparable data to a game, and the new Mario Kart directly counters this scenario.

But now that the model has proven extremely successful, it's something Nintendo WOULD be willing to invest resources in. Confident that, if the game is big enough, additional DLC will still be successful, even 5 years later.
I don't know why you think Nintendo wouldn't already be aware that DLC for an evergreen game still selling millions of units five years after release with a nearly 1:2 attach rate would still sell. Ultimate's DLC didn't stop because it was no longer profitable... they know DLC still sells years later.

But if we're going by your paradigm we can now see Nintendo being aware of this market potential and still choose to make new games instead.

No, I'm doing the exact opposite of that. Other people are drawing conclusions based on patterns that have exceptions to them. And I'm pointing out those exceptions. Which makes their conclusions...inconclusive.

Being like, "That's not going to happen because it never happens.", while ignoring that one time it already happened, is disingenuous.
First off, this isn't even an exception, because Mario Kart is getting a new entry. If the BCP would establish a precedent of anything, it's not what you're arguing, because the BCP wasn't a deluxe port, it was just adding more content to an existing game later.

Second, that's a reductionist rendition of the counterpoint, because people explain why these exceptions remain exceptions while you ignore the reasoning, looking only at the game existing. Because if you examine why they happened, you'll see the current circumstances don't line up for them to recur.

Like bringing up MK8D as precedent for a Deluxe port. Using that as evidence ignores Nintendo's desperation to not repeat the Wii U while also getting the Switch out fast, therefore putting out an existing Mario Kart because the new one wasn't ready. Why do you think they gave a Mario Kart no real DLC for five years? Because MK9 was a bigger priority internally, but was rendered unnecessary for that system.

Smash not only doesn't serve the same purpose as MK has, to be a launch window killer app, but it likely being in development for a few years already would give them time to make a new game by year 2 or after. Not to mention Nintendo has had ample time to give Switch 2 a non-emergency launch lineup.

It also ignores the lack of people who played vanilla MK8, making it a new title for so much of the audience. Once again, people are typically less likely to buy some new version of a game they already own over a completely new title. Over 30 million people already own Ultimate, while no one owns Smash 6 yet.

Don't gaslight me. There are absolutely people here saying it's definitely not going to happen.
That's exactly what not ignoring means, they're addressing it and saying it's not going to/not likely to happen.

You were actively ignoring the alternative by not even addressing it, until it was brought up in direct reply.
 
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TheFirstPoppyBro

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I laughed and I agree with you - but to play devil's advocate, or just to poke at the question: what criteria still exist at this point?

Doing some sort of Historical Impact * Nintendo-Relevance * (other smaller factors / 2) sort of equation used to be commonly accepted as some sort of vague guideline that was at least useful enough for speculation. I don't want to use specific examples because I'm moreso trying to get at the larger point, but if Genshin Impact, LoL, FNAF, etc etc etc are all valid - why does the line necessarily stop at GTA? The only concrete rule that people seem to mostly agree on in any sense is that it should be contained to video games.
Because I really don't think Nintendo is going to want to include a series entirely based around committing crimes (like in the name, GRAND THEFT AUTO) to their cartoonish fighting game crossover?

Like say what you will about Yakuza's chances, but I wouldn't exactly call Yakuza a series where the whole point is to be a menace to society, and Kiryu and Ichiban are certainly no Trevor lol

EDIT: Basically, we are on the page since you agree GTA won't show up, but imo it's not so much about criteria in this case and more what I mentioned lol
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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With GTA I always figured that given the series' controversies and likely effect on the CERO rating in Japan that Nintendo might simply believe there's other IP's that would be similar in popularity to it re: Fighter's Pass without any of the headaches that might come from including it. Someone like a Devil May Cry fighter might simply be more practical to stay true in spirit to their games (via moveset design that would somewhat obfuscate the extreme violence) than doing so with a CJ or Trevor.
 
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dream1ng

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I don't think GTA will get a character, but I question whether it would be on some ideological grounds or just because... they decided on other series instead. I know GTA has had its share of controversy, but I think it's become ubiquitous to the point that putting GTA content in Smash isn't, like... an implicit endorsement of stealing cars and shooting random civilians.

I mean Assassin's Creed is a series about assassinating people. And that's in Smash. The newer Doom games are... let's say, violent, but Nintendo didn't mind associating it with Pokemon, Kirby, Animal Crossing, etc.

The series that comes to mind for me that Nintendo would refuse for Smash on ideological grounds (other than AO series) is Wolfenstein. Running around a city being a menace is one thing, but ain't no way Nintendo is letting their characters interact with anything related to nazi imagery.

I mean other than known neo-nazi, Registeel.
 

MBRedboy31

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You know… people say CoD Soldier would have no personality, but he would have a personality.
His personality would be that of the hypothetical average CoD player (but with VC disabled,) much like how Steve has the personality of an average Minecraft player.

I kinda want to see it just because it’d be that unfitting next to everyone else.
 

Thegameandwatch

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for enjoy the hype of Grand Theft Auto 6, are you really think that a GTA character could join in Smash?, violent franchises as Metal Gear and Persona 5 are a meaning that M-Rated games are avaliable for Smash and Banjo and Steve are also means that non-japanese characters can join in Smash too
why does the line necessarily stop at GTA? The only concrete rule that people seem to mostly agree on in any sense is that it should be contained to video games.
Despite its popularity, GTA is probably one of the least likely series to be represented in Smash. The tone, content included and age rating reasons is why I don’t think it’s likely to happen.

Not even sure if GTA crossovers in general have happened such as in Fortnite.
 

DragonRobotKing26

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I mean Assassin's Creed is a series about assassinating people. And that's in Smash. The newer Doom games are... let's say, violent, but Nintendo didn't mind associating it with Pokemon, Kirby, Animal Crossing, etc.

The series that comes to mind for me that Nintendo would refuse for Smash on ideological grounds (other than AO series) is Wolfenstein. Running around a city being a menace is one thing, but ain't no way Nintendo is letting their characters interact with anything related to nazi imagery.
i can agree with the Wolfenstein part, put a franchise that is known by a game with nazi themes is colud be so problematical, if Smash have a Mortal Kombat character like Scorpion who is the most iconic ones, it's could obvious for remove the part where the characters bleed, for the fatalities is debatable, Fatal Blows and X-Rays are obvious to get removed

also we can't forget that Travis Touchdown, Altair, Dante and other M-Rated characters are added as Mii Costumes
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I think the funniest thing about a GTA character in Smash would be that he'd be just a guy with a gun. You could say that characters like Nathan and Lara and Leon are also just people with guns, but they're also adventurers and gaurds and whatnot that deal with weird stuff like this on the regular. GTA characters are just normal people who's weirdest day is running from the cops. Throw them into a situation where they have to fight a pink balloon that sings, a happy go lucky plumber, and a giant space dragon and you've got yourself a straight man.

I also kind of enjoy the idea of them being able to steal items from other players with a command grab. Like, you beat up Shulk and steal his Junk Sword kind of thing.
 

RodNutTakin

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I honestly thought the main things holding GTA back, is its historic aversion to Nintendo systems outside of minor spinoffs and the infamous remaster collection, and the series's heavy use of licensed real world music.
If Sonic and Final Fantasy are troublesome to get certain tracks for, I think most of the devs would spotaneously combust at the idea of trying to get a tracklist like this just so CJ can be in the game:
1743369149233.png
 

DragonRobotKing26

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You know… people say CoD Soldier would have no personality, but he would have a personality.
His personality would be that of the hypothetical average CoD player (but with VC disabled,) much like how Steve has the personality of an average Minecraft player.

I kinda want to see it just because it’d be that unfitting next to everyone else.
FPS is a genre where it's obvious isn't a genre added for Smash, i can agree for add Doom Slayer (or Doomguy) and Master Chief for Smash, by they have a impact of popularity and aren't just full-armored supersoldier, but if add other FPS character as a COD or Battlefield protagonist, i believe they could have a generic moveset of "a guy with a gun"
 

LiveStudioAudience

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In a complete swerve and effort to appeal to the British audience, Nintendo decides to make all eight protagonists of GTA London via alternate costumes as the Grand Theft Auto rep in Smash 6:

GTA Real.jpg


Audiences from the region will be happy but greatly confused.
 
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dream1ng

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i can agree with the Wolfenstein part, put a franchise that is known by a game with nazi themes is colud be so problematical, if Smash have a Mortal Kombat character like Scorpion who is the most iconic ones, it's could obvious for remove the part where the characters bleed, for the fatalities is debatable, Fatal Blows and X-Rays are obvious to get removed

also we can't forget that Travis Touchdown, Altair, Dante and other M-Rated characters are added as Mii Costumes
Yeah I don't think violence or risque dress are insurmountable problems, provided the license holders are alright making alterations to the characters. A lot of M-rated characters have been toned down in one appearance or another before.

That isn't to say I think we'll get Scorpion, but I also don't think he can't work. I mean if Bayonetta can work, I think most characters can work.

I honestly thought the main things holding GTA back, is its historic aversion to Nintendo systems outside of minor spinoffs and the infamous remaster collection, and the series's heavy use of licensed real world music.
If Sonic and Final Fantasy are troublesome to get certain tracks for, I think most of the devs would spotaneously combust at the idea of trying to get a tracklist like this just so CJ can be in the game:
View attachment 400713
GTA does have some original songs in it, and while I guess the music it'd bring would be underwhelming, a character isn't going to be excluded on the basis of limited music. We've had some characters show up without bringing much on the musical side before.

People aren't buying a GTA character so they can hear real life artists in Smash.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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I don't think GTA will get a character, but I question whether it would be on some ideological grounds or just because... they decided on other series instead. I know GTA has had its share of controversy, but I think it's become ubiquitous to the point that putting GTA content in Smash isn't, like... an implicit endorsement of stealing cars and shooting random civilians.

I mean Assassin's Creed is a series about assassinating people. And that's in Smash. The newer Doom games are... let's say, violent, but Nintendo didn't mind associating it with Pokemon, Kirby, Animal Crossing, etc.

The series that comes to mind for me that Nintendo would refuse for Smash on ideological grounds (other than AO series) is Wolfenstein. Running around a city being a menace is one thing, but ain't no way Nintendo is letting their characters interact with anything related to nazi imagery.

I mean other than known neo-nazi, Registeel.
IMO the difference between those and GTA is the realism of it all. I know GTA has goofy stuff in it sometimes, like alien and Bigfoot sightings and things, but most of the games are centered around moving around a city modelled after a real life city using realistic firearms to gun down (mostly) realistically reacting human NPCs just for the sake of doing it.

Assassin's Creed (specifically Altair anyway since he got the Mii Costume) still has its sci-fi background of taking down a shadow cabal of Templars in the 1200s via basically living as your ancestor, and DOOM is about killing waves of demons after hell is unleashed upon the world which is inherently different than if Doomguy was just ripping random civilians apart.
 
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Dukefire

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I can say that what makes GTA what it is, it allow you the freedom to do what you want in a real life simulator without suffering the consequences in actual real life.

I don't know how GTA character could be added into smash bros since any character is your avatar. This is just me, but I don't see GTA despite being a popular franchise, hold weight against other series like Metal Gear Solid, Halo, Doom series, etc.
 

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So, I'm going to ask this question once now, and once after the Switch 2 direct. We're at the end of the Switch's lifespan. It had a great run. There were a ton of wonderful games and a ton of fantastic revivals of older franchises.

Part of Smash's appeal is adding new franchises to expand the crossover. So I have to ask.

What do you think are the top five most likely new Nintendo franchises to get a character in the next Smash Bros, and why?
 

DemifiendEnjoyer

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So, I'm going to ask this question once now, and once after the Switch 2 direct. We're at the end of the Switch's lifespan. It had a great run. There were a ton of wonderful games and a ton of fantastic revivals of older franchises.

Part of Smash's appeal is adding new franchises to expand the crossover. So I have to ask.

What do you think are the top five most likely new Nintendo franchises to get a character in the next Smash Bros, and why?
I'm using "New" as "Hasn't has a Smash character"
Famicom Detective Club
Rythm Heaven
Ring Fit Adventure
Labo
Astral Chain I guess?
 

Ivander

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What do you think are the top five most likely new Nintendo franchises to get a character in the next Smash Bros, and why?
I think the most likely is Ring Fit Adventure. Behind that are Golden Sun, Famicom Detective Club, Nintendo Labo and Rhythm Heaven.

Astral Chain is a stand-alone, not a franchise....yet.
 
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RileyXY1

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I honestly thought the main things holding GTA back, is its historic aversion to Nintendo systems outside of minor spinoffs and the infamous remaster collection, and the series's heavy use of licensed real world music.
If Sonic and Final Fantasy are troublesome to get certain tracks for, I think most of the devs would spotaneously combust at the idea of trying to get a tracklist like this just so CJ can be in the game:
View attachment 400713
Yeah. That's also the reason why I don't think that Fallout will ever get a rep in Smash.
 

Shinuto

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GTA to me is just a nothing burger for Smash. Like what would it bring that's even interesting FOR Smash? An ugly crime ridden dingey urban city stage and a dumb violent normal human thug....wooo...
 
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RileyXY1

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And to top it all off, GTA is straight up banned in many countries so players there would be forced to commit piracy if they want to experience the game.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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So, I'm going to ask this question once now, and once after the Switch 2 direct. We're at the end of the Switch's lifespan. It had a great run. There were a ton of wonderful games and a ton of fantastic revivals of older franchises.

Part of Smash's appeal is adding new franchises to expand the crossover. So I have to ask.

What do you think are the top five most likely new Nintendo franchises to get a character in the next Smash Bros, and why?
I'm assuming you mean new as in "not already represented" as opposed to franchises specifically introduced on the Switch.

In which case, I'm gonna saaaaay Ring Fit Adventure, Famicom Detective Club, Golden Sun, Astral Chain, and... I wanna say Rhythm Heaven for obvious reasons, but it's a more unsure spot for that one lol

Ring Fit Adventure was a big success, I doubt Nintendo would ignore it.
Famicom Detective Club had a pretty successful pair of remakes and a new game off of that, so I feel like it'd at least be in the conversation.
Golden Sun likely had Isaac doing pretty well on the Ballot, hence Golden Sun's bunch of new content. It obviously depends on Sakurai's headspace whenever he made the roster if he ended up going further with that, but that goes for any character.
Astral Chain is a new IP that did pretty well for itself and Nintendo ended up getting the rest of the rights to it after it came out.
Rhythm Heaven has the benefit of being considered already before for a Fighter (and similarly to Golden Sun receiving a pretty solid amount of content in terms of Ultimate Spirits for a non-playable franchise), but it depends on if Sakurai decided to go back to that idea. Otherwise, timing for Groove may hold it back, though it also might make it a possible candidate for first party DLC depending on if it does well enough.

At least all that is my two cents.
 
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RileyXY1

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Although the series already has a Mii costume even before the Microsoft buyout so it’s not completely unlikely.
I think that's all it will ever have due to music licensing issues. A good chunk of Fallout's soundtrack is made up of licensed songs from the 50s, and the rest is just generic ambiance.
 

DemifiendEnjoyer

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Rhythm Heaven might actually be like super likely now, Like there was a character (PROBABLY) intended for Smash 4 and now Ryhtm Heaven is back so I really think it could happen. I don't know if it would be Chorus Kids or Karate Joe or whoever, But I really feel like it could happen.
Famicom Detective Club is kind of in a similar situation, Cause Ayumi was considered in Melee but wasn't added cause Sakurai couldn't think of how she would fight, But character movesets have gotten way more out there since Melee so that shouldn't be a problem, And also the series is back now.
 

dream1ng

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IMO the difference between those and GTA is the realism of it all. I know GTA has goofy stuff in it sometimes, like alien and Bigfoot sightings and things, but most of the games are centered around moving around a city modelled after a real life city using realistic firearms to gun down (mostly) realistically reacting human NPCs just for the sake of doing it.

Assassin's Creed (specifically Altair anyway since he got the Mii Costume) still has its sci-fi background of taking down a shadow cabal of Templars in the 1200s via basically living as your ancestor, and DOOM is about killing waves of demons after hell is unleashed upon the world.
I feel like a lot of that realism would shed when CJ runs around with bunny ears and a lightsaber while a giant Nintendog rolls around in the background...

I think the realistic tone of GTA makes it unintuitive for selection, which is why it probably wouldn't be selected, but I don't think it precludes being accepted. With GTA being so mainstream that its conduct has become more normalized in its context, and Smash's ever-expanding scope of IPs included, I think the optics would read as the addition of a juggernaut franchise in a series that adds juggernaut franchises, not, again, as endorsing GTA's ethos. Not the least of which because GTA would get less realistic and explicit through Smash's filter rather than dumping Nintendo's cast into a GTA game.

Which probably wouldn't make for the most exciting character - another reason for getting passed over. But some out-of-left-field spirit event equivalent, I could see that.

I think we might just have to agree to disagree.
 

fogbadge

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So, I'm going to ask this question once now, and once after the Switch 2 direct. We're at the end of the Switch's lifespan. It had a great run. There were a ton of wonderful games and a ton of fantastic revivals of older franchises.

Part of Smash's appeal is adding new franchises to expand the crossover. So I have to ask.

What do you think are the top five most likely new Nintendo franchises to get a character in the next Smash Bros, and why?
Mario, Fire Emblem and Pokemon. I don't think I need to explain why

the other two Animal Crossing and Splatoon. reason being that both series saw huge growth during the switch era and have become major faces on nintendo in recent years. or more major in the case of AC
 

dream1ng

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Mario, Fire Emblem and Pokemon. I don't think I need to explain why

the other two Animal Crossing and Splatoon. reason being that both series saw huge growth during the switch era and have become major faces on nintendo in recent years. or more major in the case of AC
Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't believe Mario and Pokemon would be new to Smash
 

Swamp Sensei

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Mario, Fire Emblem and Pokemon. I don't think I need to explain why

the other two Animal Crossing and Splatoon. reason being that both series saw huge growth during the switch era and have become major faces on nintendo in recent years. or more major in the case of AC
None of those are new.
 

dream1ng

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So, I'm going to ask this question once now, and once after the Switch 2 direct. We're at the end of the Switch's lifespan. It had a great run. There were a ton of wonderful games and a ton of fantastic revivals of older franchises.

Part of Smash's appeal is adding new franchises to expand the crossover. So I have to ask.

What do you think are the top five most likely new Nintendo franchises to get a character in the next Smash Bros, and why?
Ring Fit and then everything else, lol.

Probably Rhythm Heaven, FDC, Astral Chain and Golden Sun.

Though all four of those have pretty legitimate counterpoints as well. Rhythm Heaven and Astral Chain both have timing concerns - the former probably being too late for base and questionable for DLC if it underperforms as a 2026 og Switch game. A cross-release will help tremendously imo.

And Astral Chain was successful enough but it will have been a while since it released by the time Smash 6 touches down. However, if the roster was decided in like 2021 or 2022, that will again help greatly. It would still be pretty recent and its future with Platinum would look more hopeful.

FDC is just... fairly obscure. Especially in the west, though even in Japan the new games didn't do that great. It might also be too late for base if the remake itself wasn't enough. It getting in will probably be due to just not a lot of other first-party competition rather than its own strengths.

And GS really hinges on whether we get a first-party fan favorite, with more popular fan favorites like Waluigi just getting in normally, leaving the spot open.
 

BackseatSakurai

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It's like the saying that goes something like "I couldn't give you an exact definition (in this case, of what video game characters could "fit" in smash), but I'd know it when I see it"
I actually completely agree - I just think even a lot of the characters we already have are not in-vibe. More or less, point taken, but just saying my "vibe" would probably be even narrower in scope than most.

EDIT: Basically, we are on the page since you agree GTA won't show up, but imo it's not so much about criteria in this case and more what I mentioned lol
Yeah, we basically agree, but I would extend the logic to Yakuza as well. I know it's Like A Dragon, but - it's more or less the same deal, albeit maybe slightly more goofy and with the benefit of being a Japanese property.

FPS is a genre where it's obvious isn't a genre added for Smash, i can agree for add Doom Slayer (or Doomguy) and Master Chief for Smash, by they have a impact of popularity and aren't just full-armored supersoldier, but if add other FPS character as a COD or Battlefield protagonist, i believe they could have a generic moveset of "a guy with a gun"
Doomguy or bust, just the fact that hes Mr. FPS along with having a unique entry in the core franchise exclusive to Nintendo (DOOM 64) is more than enough for me - I feel like especially with the Mii costume and Microsoft being on board, people underestimate him.

What do you think are the top five most likely new Nintendo franchises to get a character in the next Smash Bros, and why?
I'm assuming you mean just not currently represented in Smash by new, but the most obvious absences to me:
  • Famicom Wars
  • Rhythm Heaven
  • Golden Sun (just because it seems like of the dormant ones, Isaac is still discussed a lot)

Then it's a toss-up. If I had to pick two I think Custom Robo and Puzzle League deserve the love, but I could see Ring Fit or something else.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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FDC is just... fairly obscure. Especially in the west, though even in Japan the new games didn't do that great. It might also be too late for base if the remake itself wasn't enough. It getting in will probably be due to just not a lot of other first-party competition rather than its own strengths.
I feel like this is entirely dependent on FDC's almost assuredly different metrics for success. After all, the remakes did get followed up by a sequel, and I don't imagine you'd make the first sequel in 27 years off of a game that didn't do well.

Like it's a visual novel so it's definitely going to take less money to make, and would need to make less money back to be considered a success. It just makes it harder for us to determine if Emio has potential to receive a sequel since we can't just be like "well it's a million seller so of course it will".
 

CapitaineCrash

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IMO the difference between those and GTA is the realism of it all. I know GTA has goofy stuff in it sometimes, like alien and Bigfoot sightings and things, but most of the games are centered around moving around a city modelled after a real life city using realistic firearms to gun down (mostly) realistically reacting human NPCs just for the sake of doing it.

Assassin's Creed (specifically Altair anyway since he got the Mii Costume) still has its sci-fi background of taking down a shadow cabal of Templars in the 1200s via basically living as your ancestor, and DOOM is about killing waves of demons after hell is unleashed upon the world which is inherently different than if Doomguy was just ripping random civilians apart.
I think the difference too is how it would be hard to remove GTA violence for a moveset. Take Bayonetta for example, Smash moveset make no reference to the torture attacks, which are easily the most violent part of the game so it makes sense to not put them in Smash. But even when you remove them, you're left with a girl with fantasy looking guns and that summons demons. The moveset write itself. This is also why Doom is such a popular pick. Sure it's a violent game with the glory kill, but if you remove them you're still left with, again, a dude with sci-fi looking weapons and a lot of tools to make a moveset. Mortal kombat is also a similar case, you could remove the fatality and still have lot of cool stuff to work with like The spear and fire if you're working with Scoprion.

But with GTA you can't really remove the violence in the same way because killing people with guns and stealing stuff is pretty much all those characters do. If you remove that you're left with a character that can... punch I guess?
 
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