Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[dream1ng]

Honestly, after taking some time to think it over, I think we're going to be getting an upgrade to Ultimate instead of Smash 6. And this is coming from someone who would rather have a new game. There are just a few things lining up.
Sakurai is working on Kirby's Air Ride 2. Taking game development schedules into account, this kinda suggests that we would be getting Smash 6 in 2028 at the absolute earliest. I can't see Nintendo waiting that long to have one of their megaton series on the Switch

If development started in 2022, it very well could already be done, and just sat on, since it's a Switch 2 game. Remember, it's Kirby Air Ride, not something as intensive as Smash Bros. It probably won't take the same time. Regardless, most Sakurai projects take two years and change to develop, which would make a holiday 2027 Smash release entirely plausible. After Uprising, Sakurai was able to get both versions of Smash 4 out in just over two years.

Not just that, but if the next Smash rebuilds its roster and therefore has a smaller base but more ongoing DLC (with a permanent team instead of a skeleton crew), that would truncate pre-release development time, shifting part of it to post-release, allowing the game to come out earlier.

And that's all under the assumption Sakurai would be directing it instead of just being a producer and advisor. If he's less involved, it would be that much easier for him to juggle both projects, especially considering Air Riders was likewise developed by Bamco.

The timeline does line up for a Smash game to still come out in 2027, which, if 3D Mario and Gen 10 are next year, would be a realistic timeframe.

Enhanced versions of Switch games seem to be a big thing on Switch 2. We're definitely getting more than the six that have been announced

I agree with that, but that doesn't mean every kind of game will be an enhanced released. If you look at the kind of titles that are getting these releases, it's ones which don't serve as an ongoing platform of content like Smash, Splatoon, or Animal Crossing.

Because release of that kind of game would take away from a new, better-selling title, either because you'd need to support it instead, or it would merely exist briefly before the new title showed up, making any substantial new content made for it... a questionable choice.

So Switch 2 Engage, or XC3, or Pikmin 4 versions, sure. Switch 2 Forgotten Land doesn't inhibit a new Kirby releasing basically whenever. Switch 2 Splatoon, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Smash... I think they're going to want the new, better-selling titles with their extended, years-long, service-like rollout.

Because it would still be Ultimate, running off the same game card as a base, there would be no need to renegotiate to bring back content from third parties.

Renegotiation would still be necessary, because it's likely the contracts specify the specific native platform of release, so any changes to that would require amendments and probably further compensation.

Furthermore, if you kept the existing DLC as DLC you again had to buy, that would undercut how Switch 2 Editions present themselves; as more complete packages. But if you moved the DLC characters to base, you would absolutely have to form new contracts, given how the payment would be totally different for the license holders. And some of the license holders are far more receptive to their content being DLC, given the back-end they are entitled to. Which ironically would probably make negotiating for a new game where they could remain as DLC easier.

Not only that, but if you offer Ultimate as a Switch 2 Edition, it likely means there's no Smash 6 on the upcoming horizon. So now Nintendo is forgoing that (egregious) $80 to offer their Smash game at the cost of a mere upgrade to the millions and millions of existing Ultimate owners. And again, this differs from Zelda, for instance, because one Zelda doesn't inhibit more from showing up. Eventually Switch 2 will obviously gets its own original Zelda.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I just don't think anymore Switch 2 editions will be made. What's already announced is what we're going to get.

 

[BrawlX10]

I still don't understand why we wouldn't get a new Smash all of a sudden. Even if it's later than we anticipated, comparing an upgrade pack's 10 dollars for 35 million people (350 million dollars) to even selling Smash at 70 dollars to just 10 million people (literally double that at 700 million) is a no-brainer.

Like I'm still pretty convinced that Namco making A NINTENDO-CENTERED SUPPORT STUDIO NAMED STUDIO S, hiring through to June last year, and suddenly making 4 more spirit events for Smash during their hiring wave means they probably started SOMETHING related last year, even if it's just preliminary work, like I could see Sakurai supervising that while he full on directs Air Riders, then once that's fully finished he shifts to full director on Smash.

It's not like Smash doesn't have characters that are no-brainers to keep, they could just be working on stuff like that while Sakurai wraps on Air Riders, which has probably already happened or happens soon.

Buddy, it literally makes billions of dollars. Anything's possible I guess, but like I really doubt Nintendo would wanna pass up on free billions going forward.

I know Smash 3DS is not the same magnitude as Kirby Air Riders, but technically speaking, Sakurai has worked on two games simultainously before (Smash Bros 3DS & Smash Bros WiiU) If Sakurai returns as a director....is really that impossible he is working on both Kirby Air Riders and Smash 6?
At this point it just seems likee pessimism for the shake of it than considering an option.
I think a N2E is logically possible, but i'm not going to act is the only option either.
I hope this didn't offend anyone, but i had to let this out.

 

[Louie G.]

All this stress for what? There was a three year gap between the end of Smash 4 updates (2015) and the release of Smash Ultimate (2018). Even if the Air Riders team is somehow identical to the Smash team, that can easily get us Smash by 2027-2028. It’s really not anything to make a fuss about, I didn’t expect Smash to release much sooner than that anyway. We’ll be alright and Sakurai has no reason not to still be on the project, if he wants to be.

Keep our expectations in check is fine, I just think people are catastrophizing and that’s not fun or healthy either.

 

[Ivander]

I just don't think anymore Switch 2 editions will be made. What's already announced is what we're going to get.

I still hope Switch 2 will have some impact on compatible Switch 1 games. Would love to play Age of Calamity and Monster Hunter Rise with a couple additional benefits.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I still hope Switch 2 will have some impact on compatible Switch 1 games. Would love to play Age of Calamity and Monster Hunter Rise with a couple additional benefits.

Age of Calamity at a framerate higher than 20 fps already dramatically improves the game tbh

 

[BritishGuy54]

Enhanced versions of Switch games seem to be a big thing on Switch 2. We're definitely getting more than the six that have been announced

The big question is what other Switch games will we see get an enhanced version on Switch 2, and which ones will just get a free update.

I can see Pikmin 4, Xenoblade 2 and/or 3, and even Super Mario 3D All-Stars getting the full upgrade pack treatment.

I just don't think anymore Switch 2 editions will be made. What's already announced is what we're going to get.

I think it could just end up being a thing for the first few years of the Switch 2. It’ll be a thing for a while before being dropped eventually.

 

[DarthEnderX]

So far across this series, it's been consistent that Assist Trophies and other NPC-fied characters don't get upgraded to playable status on the same game- implying these characters are considered one and done after the non-playable role they were given. Mii Costumes could be applied the same logic, especially if there's a full outfit for them.

Right, but there's no precedent for whether ATs/Miis can get upgraded to playable status in the upgraded port of a game.

 

[dream1ng]

I just don't think anymore Switch 2 editions will be made. What's already announced is what we're going to get.

I think we'll probably get a few more. They can't lean on Wii U ports to offset drier stretches of their schedule, so a Switch game with a little bit of new content could fill that niche.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I just don't think anymore Switch 2 editions will be made. What's already announced is what we're going to get.

That...is a bold prediction.

 

[AreJay25]

I just don't think anymore Switch 2 editions will be made. What's already announced is what we're going to get.

I dunno. It'd be weird if they created this whole new group of ports just for them to effectively be done after the announcement.

I'm just struggling to see Ultimate getting the same treatment.

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Right, but there's no precedent for whether characters can get upgraded to playable status in the upgraded port of a game.

True - would be best then if we'd a full confirmation of it as early as possible through showing say, one of the Assists getting upgraded to playable. Waluigi could be pretty perfect contender for that incase there'll be revisits to the Ballot and he did pretty well there.

 

[Louie G.]

nno. It'd be weird if they created this whole new group of ports just for them to effectively be done after the announcement.

To be fair, that sounds like a classic Nintendo move to me lol.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I know Smash 3DS is not the same magnitude as Kirby Air Riders, but technically speaking, Sakurai has worked on two games simultainously before (Smash Bros 3DS & Smash Bros WiiU) If Sakurai returns as a director....is really that impossible he is working on both Kirby Air Riders and Smash 6?

You're comparing what was part of a single connected project to doing two separate projects at once.
That is a horrible example.

A better example would be approached to work on Brawl while still in the middle of working on the Mushiking virtual pet for Sega, but even with the type of project Mushiking was, he mentioned how challenging it was to do both at the same time.
I do not see him so willing to spread himself thin again like that for Air Ride and Smash.

Furthermore, if he was working on more than one project at the same time....why would he only mention about the one?

 

[Guynamednelson]

Mii Costumes could be applied the same logic, especially if there's a full outfit for them.

At the very least, we have proof Rex was deconfirmed for non-Mii costume reasons. They tried to have our XC2 rep be Rex with Pyra at his side, but since they were reusing the XC2 models which are way more high-poly than your typical Smash fighter, 8 Rexes and Pyras caused too many framerate issues.

 

[BackseatSakurai]

Hmmmm…

What if Studio S was working on the Smash Bros. Ultimate Switch 2 Edition without maybe Sakurai being involved?

Then it'll be an open world game where you can just avoid fighting altogether and will never be KO'd because you can climb every wall, dig through the terrain, etc.

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

I just don't think anymore Switch 2 editions will be made. What's already announced is what we're going to get.

So... no Animal Crossing: New Horizons Switch 2 Edition?

(I could see that getting a free update on Switch 2 for performance boost though)

At the very least, we have proof Rex was deconfirmed for non-Mii costume reasons. They tried to have our XC2 rep be Rex with Pyra at his side, but since they were reusing the XC2 models which are way more high-poly than your typical Smash fighter, 8 Rexes and Pyras caused too many framerate issues.

If that was his only obstacle, maybe in Smash 6, he could actually join in full force - wonder would that make changes to Pyrthra's moveset though.

 

[dream1ng]

So... no Animal Crossing: New Horizons Switch 2 Edition?

(I could see that getting a free update on Switch 2 for performance boost though)

Same logic as Smash; mainline AC games are one per platform and they'll probably want the better selling original game out as the conduit of (presumably) years of ongoing support, not a port.

 

[AreJay25]

To be fair, that sounds like a classic Nintendo move to me lol.

... True lol.

But even then, only 6 games getting massive upgrades seems a bit low. I assume we'll get at least a few more. There are some games that could definitely benefit from it...

 

[dream1ng]

If that was his only obstacle, maybe in Smash 6, he could actually join in full force - wonder would that make changes to Pyrthra's moveset though.

With Xenoblade, the new game is gonna be the priority. Rex's time has probably lapsed, as is the fate for rotating casts.

 

[BrawlX10]

I am getting exausted by the N2E vs Smash 6 talk honestly, mostly because we have no idea really at the end of the day, personally from now on i'll focus talking about characters, stages, modes and the like and go "time will tell" actitude with the status of the next entry, i just don't think it's worth it to stress over something i have no control over, but that's just me of course.

 

[Watuna4343]

I don’t consider it doom & gloom to just point out that I think there’s a chance we might not get a new Smash. That doesn’t mean I think that’s what’s going to happen, just that I think it’s possible. I think anyone that says there is a 0% chance of Smash ever ending are the ones being completely unrealistic. I always say it’s a mistake to think in absolutes and this is just an example of that. But I’m happy to drop the subject because I’m clearly being misunderstood if people take that as doom-posting.

I'll just say that you got the wrong idea if you think I was only implying you specifically. There's been a lot of folks who say that now the chances of a Smash 6 are none and that an upgrade is the only way which as I said makes no sense.

 

[dream1ng]

I am getting exausted by the N2E vs Smash 6 talk honestly, mostly because we have no idea really at the end of the day, personally from now on i'll focus talking about characters, stages, modes and the like and go "time will tell" actitude with the status of the next entry, i just don't think it's worth it to stress over something i have no control over, but that's just me of course.

Nah, take the Smash spec route of stressing over it to the point you do believe you have some control over it, then when it turns out that thing you were expecting didn't happen you can get unreasonably upset, because your investment mutated into entitlement.

Stay true to the culture of our people.

 

[cashregister9]

I mostly just find it funny that after so many years Ultimate Deluxe as a legitimate theory still lives and is arguably stronger than it ever has been

 

[Kirbeh]

Though about it good and hard yesterday and I think I'll finally delete my account and move on. If the price hikes don't make me try and replace the "obsesses over Nintendo games" part of my pysche with something more productive then the worrying possibility that smash ultimate might get a switch 2 edition will.

It's been fun for the most part. Find a way to contact me if Zoroark somehow gets into the next game instead of one of the fifty other contenders for the next pokemon slot. And uh.... Wishlist the indie game Steel Carnelian on steam because I did the majority of the soundtrack for its upcoming demo.

I don't know if it'll automatically remove my posts when I slash the account. We'll find out. Peace.

If you haven't dipped by the time of writing: Good luck on your work as a composer. I hope the project finds success.

 

[Noipoi]

I mostly just find it funny that after so many years Ultimate Deluxe as a legitimate theory still lives and is arguably stronger than it ever has been

The only downside to the Air Riders announcement is that it inadvertently prolonged this debate for an extra year at least.

 

[Gengar84]

Good news is I’m not too stressed either way. Whether or not we get a new Smash this generation, it’s just a game and there are for more important things that are actually worth stressing over. I’m honestly a lot more bothered by the $90 games, DK’s redesign, and actual world events outside of Nintendo than I am about the fact that Smash 6 wasn’t shown in the Direct. I never really meant for that part to escalate the way it did, I was just throwing out random thoughts going through my head at the time. I think it kept going because I kept responding to people quoting me. As much as I love Smash speculation, it’s not really a huge deal to me that Smash wasn’t shown off. It would have been cool but I’ve got a huge backlog of games anyways.

On the plus side, I think the later development cycle actually helps a few characters on my list. Chrono Trigger has a bunch of projects in the works and Smash starting development later actually means there’s a chance these projects could help its chances. Arcane has had two successful seasons now and Jinx is one of the 10 characters in the upcoming 2XKO game. I don’t mind waiting longer if it means we’ll get a better game in the end. I’m just not sure if I’m going to buy the console due to the price of the games.

 

[dream1ng]

The only downside to the Air Riders announcement is that it inadvertently prolonged this debate for an extra year at least.

I mean... Air Riders and Switch 2 Editions add new layers to the conversation, but it's not like had they been absent we would've had any answers about Smash that would've otherwise ended the pre-existing debate. It's not like the discussion had been settled.

People tapping out as if they weren't expecting us to still be talking about this post-Direct... like... were they expecting a Smash reveal? That's the only thing that actually could've ended it.

Hell, after Ultimate's tease people were still debating whether it was a deluxe port or not. Even after the first actual reveal the conversation wasn't dead.

 

[BrawlX10]

People tapping out as if they weren't expecting us to still be talking about this post-Direct... like... were they expecting a Smash reveal? That's the only thing that actually could've ended it.

Personally, i just find it exausting, because since the Sora release, if not earlier people were already doing the Deluxe vs Smash 6 debates even outside this site, but after the reveal it's probably gotten worse and there will be more in frequency.
I think i'll either only talk about potential newcomers, stages, items, modes and the like or just not post as much as i did.

 

[dream1ng]

Personally, i just find it exausting, because i think since the opening of this thread, if not earlier people were already doing the Deluxe vs Smash 6 debates, but after the reveal it's probably gotten worse and there will be more in frequency.
I think i'll either only talk about potential newcomers, stages, items, modes and the like or just not post as much as i did.

That's fine, I get it. There's no point forcing yourself to talk about any of this, it's more just... continued discussion about port v original was by far the most likely outcome of this direct anyway, so the reactions as it that wasn't what people were bracing for kinda surprise me.

 

[Kirbeh]

I’ve got a confession. I think I have a lot more fun speculating about Smash than I actually do playing it. In all honesty, Smash Ultimate lasted me about two months before I dropped it. It was fun for the time I played it, I just ran out of things to do and I don’t like playing online. I picked it up again for about a week each time a new DLC fighter came up but quickly dropped it again. The things that made me fully get into the game again are the Stage Builder and mods. I think I’ve actually felt this way since Brawl. Once I beat SSE, I stopped with Brawl after a couple months too until modding became a thing. I couldn’t really get mods to work properly on Smash 4 so that game fell off the fastest for me. I do still love playing the game on and off casually but the large majority of the appeal to me are the mods.

That's it. Good. Become the roster starer you were always meant to be.

Joking aside, it sounds a lot like you're more enamored with the idea of Smash than you are with what it actually is. Not even Smash, just the type of crossover that it is. Nothing wrong with that, but if you're getting little enjoyment out of it- I don't know? It kind of sounds like you're trapping yourself in the speculation scene because you've been in the game for too long.

I mean no offense, but your posts the last few days have been a little on edge/upset sounding. If this board is a comfort zone for you, maybe take a short break from it so you don't sour it for yourself. Again, I hope this doesn't come off the wrong way, and I know it's probably unwanted advice but you're usually not so negative, so I figured I'd try.

All this stress for what?

I'm admittedly somewhat pessimistic but even I'm questioning half the posts from the past day and a half.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I don't think y'all understand. This is the chill relaxing part.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I don't think y'all understand. This is the chill relaxing part.

They don't know, do they?

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I don't think y'all understand. This is the chill relaxing part.

I'm just sitting here like "dang, I wish we had an actual date for Air Riders".

Not for Smash related reasons, entirely just because Air Ride is one of my nostalgia games and I can't believe it's actually getting a sequel lmao

 

[Gengar84]

That's it. Good. Become the roster starer you were always meant to be.

Joking aside, it sounds a lot like you're more enamored with the idea of Smash than you are with what it actually is. Not even Smash, just the type of crossover that it is. Nothing wrong with that, but if you're getting little enjoyment out of it- I don't know? It kind of sounds like you're trapping yourself in the speculation scene because you've been in the game for too long.

I mean no offense, but your posts the last few days have been a little on edge/upset sounding. If this board is a comfort zone for you, maybe take a short break from it so you don't sour it for yourself. Again, I hope this doesn't come off the wrong way, and I know it's probably unwanted advice but you're usually not so negative, so I figured I'd try.


I'm admittedly somewhat pessimistic but even I'm questioning half the posts from the past day and a half.

No that’s fine, I appreciate the feedback. I do actually love modded Smash but I am becoming a bit tired of vanilla Smash to be honest. I apologize if I’m coming across as on edge. I always try to be respectful here and just share what I enjoy. I’m not so much on edge about Smash itself as I am with everything else going on on in the world right now. Smash speculation provides me a nice distraction from all that.

To address the last few days here specifically, it started out with me sharing a fun idea I had for a Dixie Kong moveset and then everyone piling on me telling me what a horrible idea that was. One user accused me of forcing my ideas on people just because I thought something could be fun. That’s the thing that set me off. I’m perfectly fine with people disagreeing with me. I usually have fun debating even if I’m the only one on my side. I have a hard time dealing with accusations like that when I’m just trying to share a fun idea.

The only Smash related thing I’ve argued about today is that I suggested it’s possible we might not get another Smash. I acknowledged that we probably still would, but it’s not a guarantee. I’m not really upset about Smash at all and I wasn’t really annoyed or upset at all today regarding Smash. I also didn’t mean to come off that way when debating. Apologies if I did.

 

[dream1ng]

I don't think y'all understand. This is the chill relaxing part.

they're not ready for grinch times

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

See this is why we should have gotten spin-offs from Smash Bros to fill the gaps between major releases and soak up discussion during quieter periods.

Somewhere in an alternative universe, their Smashboards is currently dominated by arguments about the ratio of stronger decks in the SSB Trading Card Game to the point where Ultimate Deluxe vs. Smash 6 debates aren't even happening.

 

[Guynamednelson]

See this is why we should have gotten spin-offs from Smash Bros to fill the gaps between major releases and soak up discussion during quieter periods.

Somewhere in an alternative universe, their Smashboards is currently dominated by arguments about the ratio of stronger decks in the SSB Trading Card Game to the point where Ultimate Deluxe vs. Smash 6 debates aren't even happening.

Sakurai pls nerf the Pichu/Waluigi deck and not by introducing a card that forces your opponent to draw every single card in their deck

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I just don't think anymore Switch 2 editions will be made. What's already announced is what we're going to get.

For this to happen, the Switch 2 Editions we do have would need to flop so hard that Nintendo would no longer see any worth in them.

And given most of the ones we've seen have exclusive content built in which is also accessible if you just get the upgrade pass... yeah, I think they'll do well.

I could see them slow down in frequency, but I don't think we'll only get what we saw. Especially since the Direct explicitly said more would come.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

they're not ready for grinch times

I'm still not ready to relive those dreadful momths.